>> 招银国际-China Property Sector – Property+ Weekly： Can we expect post-CNY recovery？-230120
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研究报告全文：20Jan2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchSectorUpdateChinaPropertySectorPropertyWeeklyCanweexpectpost-CNYOUTPERFORMrecoveryMaintainDuetoCOVIDandearlyCNYthisyearwehavenotseenanymeaningfulsignChinaPropertySectorofrecoveryinpropertyanditssupplychainIntermsofbreakdownpropertycompletionsalesnewstartshownby1Completion-drivenmaterialsAluminumMiaoZhangandfloatglasssawWoWpriceup2903Thisispartlyhelpedbydirect85237618910fundingsupportforhomecompletion2Propertysalesdeclinedby12YoYinzhangmiaocmbicomhkMTDJan3NewStart-drivenmaterialsCementsaw3WoWweakeningLookingbeyondCNYweexpectashort-termreboundinpropertysalesinJeffreyZengFebruarymainlyduetopent-updemandandlowerbaseOurleadingindicator85239163727GAINIndexalsoforecastedaquicksalessentimentliftinFebruaryWhetherjeffreyzengcmbicomhkthesentimentcanlastlongerthanthatthekeyliesonpotentialpolicyrelaxationinTier1citiesafterTwoSessionBellaLi85237576202Propertysalesdeclined12YoYinJanMTDpropertysalesin30majorbellalicmbicomhkcitesupdatedto18Janwasstillsluggishat-12YoYvs-21-25inDecNov2022ConsideringanearlierCNYholidaystartingfrom21Janfullmonthsalesisexpectedtostaylowjustlikeour1M-leadingindicatorGAINpreviouslysuggestedproperty-relatedsearcheshomepurchaseinterestsaw14YoYdeclineinDec2022suggestingaweakJan2023WhileFebsalesmayhaveaslightlyrecoveryasGAINwitnessed8YoYgrowthinMTDJanandpurchasesentimentmightbeliftedabitasthereisafairlycertainchanceofpolicyrelaxationinTier1citiesafterTwo-Sessionsstartsfrom5MarCement13demandfrompptypriceweakeningWoWAsof19JanwesawcementpricenationalavgbulkcementPO425wasstillwideningitsdeclineandbooked-3-5WoWMoMItwasmainlyduetocementstorageratiostayshighat71asof13Janvs62on14Jan2022andthedemandenteredintopre-holidayshrinksasusualSteelrebarAluminumWith6031oftotaldemandcomingfrompropertysectorthesteelrebarandaluminumpricewasup0429WoWtoRMB425318641pertonasof19JanthepricehikewasmainlydrivenbyUSinflationdeclinethatcausedageneralincreaseonmetalpricesandthesupplyremainsweakduringpre-holidayandproductionwaslimitedbyseasonalitypowershortageincertainregionsForsteelrebartheproductionwasalsodemotivatedbyhighironoreandcoalpricesOtherMaterialsFloatglassderived70ofitsdemandfrompropertysectortheprice5mmplainfloatglassnational-wideclimbed034WoWMoMon19JanthankstomorehomecompletionfundingsupportfromgovernmentandbanksanddemandersareactivelyreplenishingstockbeforetheholidaysMeanwhilemarketisholdingmoreexpectationsonpropertysalesrecoveryduetopossiblerelaxationinTier1citiesafterTwo-Sessionsevenwithpoorrealitycurrentlyrelatedstocksofotherbuildingmaterialslikewaterproofmaterialsgypsumboardandplasticpipe8030and20oftotaldemandfrompropmarketrespectivelyperformedwellrecentlywithChinaLessoOrientalYuhongandBJNewBuildingMaterialup1514and10vsHSIup9fromtheyearbeginningPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk20Jan2023Figure1MTDJansalesdeclined-12YoYvs-21-25inDecNov2022SourceWindCMBIGMFigure2LeadingindicatorsuggestsbettersalesinFebSourceNBSCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE220Jan2023Figure3AvgpriceofbulkcementPO425national-wideSourceMySteelCMBIGMFigure4NationalcementstorageratioSourceMySteelCMBIGMFigure5SteelrebarpriceSourceMySteelCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE320Jan2023Figure6AluminumIngotpriceSourceMySteelCMBIGMFigure75mmplainfloatglasspriceSourceMySteelCMBIGMFigure8CompsheetofdevelopersSourceBBGCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE420Jan2023Figure9CompsheetofpropertysupplychainSourceBBGCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE520Jan2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE6
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