研究报告全文：18Jan2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchSectorUpdateChinaAutoSectorWeakendingof2022providesaglimpseofhopeOUTPERFORMMaintainChinaspassenger-vehiclePVretailsalesvolumefell3YoYin2022withChinaAutoSectorweaker-than-expectedsalesinNovandDecWholesalevolumerose10YoYin2022aidedbyexportsandinventoryrestockingAutomakerscutabout049mnSHIJiCFAunitsofinventoriesintheirdealersshowroomsinDec2022lowerthanour85237618728expectationasnew-energyvehicleNEVmakersonlycuttheirinventoriesbyshijicmbicomhk17000unitsinDecAbout1mnunitsofinventorieswereaddedatdealersinDouWenjingCFAChinain202266ofwhichwereNEVs85269394751douwenjingcmbicomhkTheweaksalesvolumeinNov-Dec2022inourviewnotonlylowerscomparisonbasefor2023butcouldalsoindicatecontinuedautosalesweaknessintheshortunitsChinawholesalevolumebymonthtermWerevisedownour2023ChinaPVretailsalesvolumeforecast3000000slightlyfrom2016mnunitsto20mnunitsor24YoYdeclinemainlyto2500000reflectpossibleweaker1Q23salesthanwehadexpectedWemaintainour20000002023PVwholesalevolumeforecastas2258mnunitsor42YoYdeclineaswereviseupexportprojectionfrom27mnunitsto30mnunits15000001000000Possibleweak1Q23autosalescouldprovideanentryopportunityor500000triggeranotherroundofstimulusmeasuresThesharepricereboundinJanMarMayJulSepNov2019202020212022theautosectorstartingfromNov2022cameabitlaterthanwehadexpectedinSep2022as4Q22autosalesvolumewasweakerthanexpectedbutattheSourceCAAMCPCACMBIGMsametimeinvestorsstartedtoanticipateconsumptionrecoveryaftertheunitsChinaretailsalesvolumebymonthCOVIDpolicychangesWeareoftheviewthat1Q23autosalesvolumecould3000000stillmissinvestorsexpectationsbutpossiblesharepriceweaknesscould2500000presentanopportunitytoaccumulatesharesasautosalesvolumecould2000000recovergraduallyfrom2Q23ThekeytosharepricemaylieinhowfasttherecoverypacewouldbeShouldsalesweaknesspersistin2Q23webelieve1500000thattheChinesegovernmentislikelytoresumestimulusmeasures1000000500000NEVforecastsin2023Werevisedownour2023NEVretailsalesvolumeJanMarMayJulSepNovforecastfrom75mnunitsto72mnunitsmainlyduetoapossibleweaker-2019202020212022than-expected1Q23Accordinglywecutour2023NEVwholesalevolumeSourceCATARCCMBIGMforecastfrom85mnunitsto83mnunitsThatimpliesNEVmarketshareofStocksCoveredTP36-37in2023EonbothwholesaleandretailbasisNameTickerRatingLCLiAutoLIUSBUY44Jan2023outlookDespiteearlyChineseNewYearretailsalesvolumeinLiAuto2015HKBUY172thefirst15daysofJan2023fell24YoYWeprojectretailsalesvolumeinNIONIOUSBUY25XpengXPEVUSBUY20Jan2023tofall44YoYandwholesalevolumetodecline49YoYWeXpeng9868HKBUY78Geely175HKBUY165believesuchdeclinescouldbebelowsomeinvestorsexpectationsGWM2333HKBUY10GWM601633CHBUY32LeadingindicatorsimplyweakNEVsalesin1Q23UnlikeNov-Dec2021GAC2238HKBUY8GAC601238CHBUY167leadingindicatorsincludingnumberofleadscustomerflowandnewordersEVA838HKBUY3Meidong1268HKBUY23forTeslaNIOLixiangXpengBYDandAioninNov-Dec2022fellBYD1211HKHOLD218sequentiallybasedondatafromasamplesizeof96storesin15majorcitiesBYD002594CHHOLD238WeprojectNEVretailsalesvolumeinJan2023tobeflatYoYat032mnunitsSourceBloombergCMBIGMor25marketshareTeslasTSLAUSNRanotherroundofretailpricecutsRelatedReportsatthebeginningofJan2023wasstillattheearlystageofpricewarinourChinaAutoSector2023OutlookAviewWearelikelytoseemoreretailpricecutsorhigherdiscountsforNEVscriticalyearforlong-termsurvival7Decin20232022PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk18Jan2023ContentsNEVSegment3WeakDecsaleswithhighinventoriescreatechallengesfor1Q233NEVbycity-tierTier-2citiesweremajordriver4NEVbycitytypeMarketdrivenratherthanpolicydriven4NEVgrowthbymodelBYDwasthelargestwinner6BEVbrandsMoreintensifyingcompetitionahead6PHEVbrandsBYDstrenghteneditsdonimancein20227LeadscustomerflowsnewordersallpostedMoMdeclinesinDec8OtherIndustryIndicatorstoWatch12COVID-19asthemajoruncertaintyforcityperformance12Chinese-brandmarketshareroseto44in202212LackofNEVmodelsleadstotraditionalluxurysunderperformance13AppendixMajorBrandsDiscountsatDealers17PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE218Jan2023NEVSegmentWeakDecsaleswithhighinventoriescreatechallengesfor1Q23InDec2022retailsalesvolumeofpassengerNEVsrose47YoYand32MoMtoabout071unitswhilemarketsharedroppedfrom331inNovto281inDecNEVsalesvolumeinDecwas16lowerthanourpriorforecastof084mnunitslargelyduetosignificantlyrisingCOVIDcasesTheNEVmarketshareonaretailbasiswas29in4Q22versus24inthefirstthreequartersof2022whichwasconsistentwithwhatwenotedinApr2022thattheNEVmarketsharein4Q22wouldnotwidensequentiallyassignificantlyaspreviousyearsIn2022NEVretailsalesvolumerose80YoYto527mnunitsanditsmarketshareincreased119pptsYoYto257beatingourpriorforecastby03pptIndividualcustomersaccountedforabout78oftotalNEVsalesin2022basedonourcalculationsimilartothatin2021Interestinglyindividualcustomersonlyaccountedfor70oftotalNEVsalesinDec2022thelowestduringthepast28monthswhichimplythatcorporatecustomerspre-buyingeffectwasmoresignificantthanindividualcustomersbeforethesubsidiesphase-outfromthebeginningof2023Figure1ProportionofNEVssoldtoindividualcustomersvsthatofICEvehiclesinChinaSourceCATARCCMBIGMWholesalevolumeofpassengerNEVsrose51YoYand1MoMtoabout075mnunitsinDec2022withamarketshareof331DespiteNEVretailsalesmissinDecitswholesalevolumelastmonthwaslargelyinlinewithourpriorforecastduetomilderinventorydestockingAutomakershavecontinuouslyaddedNEVinventoriesintodealersinthefirst11monthsof2022butonlycutNEVinventoriesbyabout17000unitsinDec2022Thatresultedinaninventoryrestockingof069mnunitsin2022forNEVsor66oftotalinventoryadditionin2022oramountedto16monthsofmonthlyaverageNEVretailsalesvolumein2022In2022NEVwholesalevolumerose97YoYto653mnunitslargelyinlinewithourpriorforecastNEVwholesalemarketshareincreased123pptsYoYto277in2022NEVexportsmorethandoubledYoYto056mnunitsin2022higherthanourpriorexpectationThereforewereviseupour2023NEVexportsfrom070mnunitsto076mnunitsPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE318Jan2023NEVbycity-tierTier-2citiesweremajordriverTier-1-2-3and-4andbelowcitiescontributedabout175117and15oftotalNEVretailsalesrespectivelyinChinain2022NEVretailsalesvolumegrowthwasfromtier-2andbelowcitiesin2022asonlytier-1citiesunderperformedthenationwideNEVretailsalesvolumelastyearNEVretailsalesvolumeintier-2citiesrose95YoYin2022themostamongallcitytiersNEVmarketsharerose103132113and96pptsYoYto383271228and183in2022fortier-1-2-3and-4andbelowcitiesrespectivelyTier-2citieshavealsobecomethemostcompetitiveanddiversifiedmarketforNEVsinChinaasthecombinedmarketshareofthetop3brandsBYDTeslaWulingwasonlyabout45in2022thelowestamongallcitytiersFortier-3andbelowcitiesconsumersshowclearpreferencetomini-sizeBEVsastheWulingHongguangMinitookupamarketshareof15in2022whereasthebest-sellingmodelintier-1and-2citiestheTeslaModelYonlyhadamarketshareof8MiniBEVsaccountedfor44oftotalBEVretailsalesvolumeintier-3andbelowcitiesin2022versus26nationwideThemarketshareformini-BEVsintheNEVsegmenthasbeendecliningaswehadexpectedfrom35in2021Figure2ChinaNEVmarketsharebycitytiertrailing12-monthbasisMarketShareJun2022Jul2022Aug2022Sep2022Oct2022Nov2022Dec2022Tier1326335344352358371384Tier2215226236245253263271Tier3179189196204211219228Tier4andbelow141149156163171178183Nationwide203213222231239249257SourceCATARCCMBIGMNEVbycitytypeMarketdrivenratherthanpolicydrivenWedividedcitiesinChinaintothreetypesbasedonwhethertherearerestrictionsforICEvehicleregistrationordrivingIn2022only24ofNEVretailsalesvolumecamefromregionswithnewICEvehicleregistrationlimitsBeijingShanghaiShenzhenGuangzhouTianjinHangzhouandHainanprovincedecliningforatleastsixconsecutiveyearswhilethecontributionfromcitieswithoutlicenseordrivingrestrictionsroseto62increasingYoYforfivesuccessiveyearsInadditionabout14ofNEVretailsalesvolumewasfromcitieswithdrivingrestrictionsincluding24citieslikeBaodingChongqingWuhanXianetcTheratiohasbeenstableforthepastfiveyearsInotherwordsamongincremental235mnunitsofnationwideNEVretailsalesvolumein2022citieswithoutlicenseordrivingrestrictionscontributed165mnunitsor70PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE418Jan2023Figure3NEVmarketsharebycitytypeSourceCATARCCMBIGMFigure4NEVretailsalesvolumeYoYgrowthcontributionbycitytypein2022SourceCATARCCMBIGMShanghairetainedtheNEVretailsalescrownforthreeyearsinarowwithsubstantialleadingadvantageShanghaialsosurpassedShenzhentohavethehighestNEVmarketshareinChinathankstostrongpre-buyingeffectofPHEVsin4Q22amidShanghaisgreenlicensecancellationforPHEVsin2023Inourreporton7Dec2022weestimatedShanghaiscancellationofgreenlicensesforPHEVcoulddentthenationwidePHEVsalesvolumebyabout3in2023AlthoughShenzhenmissedourpriorexpectationofabove50NEVmarketshareinDec2022webelievethecityislikelytoregaintheNEVmarketsharecrownin2023PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE518Jan2023Figure5NEVretailsalesvolumeintop20citieswithcorrespondingNEVmarketsharein2022SourceCATARCCMBIGMNEVgrowthbymodelBYDwasthelargestwinnerIntermsofNEVretailsalesvolumeYoYgrowthbymodelBYDwasthelargestcontributortotheNEVsales-volumeYoYgrowthin2022asitsSongPlusPHEVDolphinBEVYuanPlusBEVandSongProPHEVtookupfourspotsamongthetopfivecontributorsatthemodelleveltotheNEVYoYgrowthin2022whiletheModelYwasthefourthlargestcontributorTheTeslaModel3hadthesecondlargestYoYdeclineonaunitbasisin2022duetoitsmarketsharelosstotheModelYandsomerivalmodelsatChineseautomakerssuchastheXpengP7BYDSealZeekr001andNIOET5Figure6NEVretailsalesvolumegrowthcontributionbymodelin2022SourceCATARCCMBIGMBEVbrandsMoreintensifyingcompetitionaheadIn2022totalBEVretailsalesvolumerose67YoYtoabout40mnunitsBEVsmarketshareintheNEVsegmentdroppedto753in2022from815in2021largelyinlinewithourpriorexpectationPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE618Jan2023BYDregainedBEVretailsalescrownin2022afteritlostthecrowntoTeslain2020andWulingin2021BYDsmarketshareincreasedtoalmost20in2022from125in2021thankstoitscomprehensivemodelline-upsTheWulingHongguangMiniBEVwasthebest-sellingBEVmodelsin2022followedbytheTeslaModelYBEVdespitebeingagedTeslasurpassedWulingtobecomethesecondbest-sellingBEVbrandinChinain2022ThetopthreeBEVbrandscombinedaccountedfor416oftotalChinasBEVsalesvolumein2022downfrom426in2021amidintensifyingcompetitionWeexpectbothBYDandTeslatoretaintheirleadingpositionsin2023butatacostoflowermarginsamidNEVsubsidyphase-outandlowerproductioncapacityutilizationNetaendedupwiththe7thpositionintermsoftheBEVretailsalesvolumein2022VWistheonlyforeignbrandinthetop10listin2022Xpengdroppedtothe10thpositionwhereasNIOwasrankedNo11with291unitsfewerthanXpengFigure7Top10BEVbrandsretailsalesvolumeinChinaDec2022MarketShareUnitsYoY20222022YoY2022inBEVSegmentTotalBEV51750730339676596671000BYD995249677890541661199Tesla41687-406441697369111Wuling35788-25042115370106GACAion2560549921383274554Changan2886726317912275945Chery1403487174675104544Neta22270951145595124837Dongfeng281671307138777145235VW10263-40613724986935Xpeng11526-29512044924630SourceCATARCCMBIGMPHEVbrandsBYDstrenghteneditsdonimancein2022In2022totalPHEVEREVincludedretailsalesvolumesurged141YoYtoabout13mnunitsPHEVsmarketshareintheNEVsegmentincreasedfrom185in2021to247in2022thehighestsince2019WeexpectPHEVtocontinuegainingmarketsharein2023BYDhasbeenthePHEVretailsalesvolumechampioninChinafor14yearssince2009whenthecompanylaunchedtheBYDF3DMIn2022BYDsdominanceinthePHEVmarketwasstrengthenedin2022withmarketsharewideningfrom42in2021to61in2022BYDsmarketshareinthePHEVsegmenthaddeclinedforsixyearsinrowduring2015-20withonly19in2020Suchdominancecouldbeunsustainableinourviewasmorebrandsaretappingintothisfast-growingsegmentLixiangretainedNo2intermsofPHEVretailsalesvolumein2022althoughitsmarketsharedroppedfrom169in2021to104in2022WeprojectLixiangtoregainmarketsharein2023withitsnewL9L8andL7Huawei-backedAitorosetothe3rdpositionin2022withtheM5andM7rampingupaidedbymuchmoreshowroomsthanotherstart-upsespeciallyinlower-tiercitesAlthoughsalesvolumeoftheEmgrandLPHEVmissedourexpectationGeelystillmanagedtoenterthetop10listaswehadexpectedinAug2022WeexpectGeelysPHEVstogainmarketsharein2023withhardlessonslearntfromitsXingyueLandEmgrandLPHEVsPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE718Jan2023UnliketheBEVsegmentwhichislargelydominatedbyChinesebrandsforeignbrandsVWMercedes-BenzNissanBMWtookfourspotsinthetop10PHEVbrandsinChinain2022despitelargemarketsharegapwithChinesebrandsOverallChinesebrandsgainedmarketshareinthePHEVsegmentasthecombinedmarketshareroseto871in2022versus725in2021Figure8Top10PHEVEREVincludedbrandsretailsalesvolumeinChinaDec2022MarketShareinUnitsYoY20222022YoY2022PHEVSegmentTotalPHEV1917391211130079414061000BYD11697416317939712464610Lixiang21394516135296482104Aito8364219156389716939249VW4080-2436162-16928Mercedes-Benz310844927796149321LynkCo265076824557165919Nissan1205228218412066817Changan280386594174158970313BMW1158-44417056-35313Geely221013241649889813SourceCATARCCMBIGMLeadscustomerflowsnewordersallpostedMoMdeclinesinDecTheleadingindicatorsbelowincludingnumberofleadscustomerflowsandnewordersgeneratedforTeslaNIOLixiangXpengBYDandAionarebasedondatafromasamplesizeof96stores15-18storesforeachbrandin15majorcitiesinChinaNumberofleadsNIOshowedthehighestMoMdeclineXpengfellthemostYoYNumberofleadsperstoreforthesesixbrandsfellabout20MoMand30YoYonaverageinDec2022Suchnumberfell34MoMforNIOlastmonththemostamongallthesixbrandsLixiangwasthemostresilientwithonly7MoMdeclineXpengsnumberofleadsperstorefell50YoYthemostamongthesixbrandsTheconversionratiosfromleadstostorevisitremainedflatordeclinedslightlyMoMinDec2022forthesixbrandsbutweresignificantlylowerthanthatinDec2021PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE818Jan2023Figure9NumberofleadsperstoreonaverageforeachbrandSourceThinkercarCMBIGMFigure10ConversionratiofromleadstostorevisitforeachbrandSourceThinkercarCMBIGMCustomerflowFellMoMinDecamidrisingCOVIDcasesDecliningnumberofleadsalongwithflatorslightlyfallingconversionratiosresultedinlowerstorevisitsinDec2022CustomerflowperstoreforthesesixbrandsfellatasimilarpaceMoMinDec2022with25onaverageasCOVIDcasesrosesignificantlyinChinaYetAionwasthemostresilientwithonly17MoMdeclinefollowedbyLixiangandXpengTheconversionratiofromstorevisittoordergenerationhasbeenstablesince2H22Theratioincreasedby1-2pptsMoMforNIOandBYDinDec2022reflectinghigherpurchaseintentionforcustomerswhovisitedstoresduringthetimewithahighnumberofnewCOVIDcasesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE918Jan2023Figure11CustomerflowperstoreonaverageforeachbrandSourceThinkercarCMBIGMFigure12ConversionratiofromstorevisittonewordergenerationforeachbrandSourceThinkercarCMBIGMDecliningnewordersinNov-Deccouldleadtoweaksalesvolumein1Q23Unlike4Q21whenmostbrandsnewordersremainedathighlevelsnewordersfellsubstantiallyfromNov2022TheaverageMoMdeclineforthesixbrandswasabout15inNovand22inDecSuchdeclinescouldleadtoweaksalesvolumein1Q23TheMoMdeclineinDec2022wasthelowestforXpeng-17andthemostforLixiang-29amongallthesixbrandsPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1018Jan2023Figure13NewordersperstoreonaverageforeachbrandSourceThinkercarCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1118Jan2023OtherIndustryIndicatorstoWatchCOVID-19asthemajoruncertaintyforcityperformanceTier-1and-2citiesoutperformedtier-3andbelowcitiesintermsofretailssalesvolumegrowthin2022inlinewithourexpectationatthebeginningof2022Althoughwebelievethattier-1and-2citiesaremoreresilientduringCOVIDthepandemicrecurrencedidmakethecity-tierperformancepatternmorevolatileandunpredictablein2022Figure14ChinaautoretailsalesgrowthbycitytierRetailSalesJunJulAugSepOctNovDec2022YoYGrowth2022202220222022202220222022Tier19114924625716814013203Tier218410622411151-1413206Tier31226916541-84-23867-74Tier4andbelow1003546-29-161-194116-72Nationwide1448817686-12-79115-28SourceCATARCCMBIGMPandemicmanagementandstimulusmeasuresbylocalgovernmentsplayedimportantrolesforcity-levelretailsalesvolumeperformancewhichcanbereflectedbythecitiednamedinthechartbelowShanghaishoweditsresilienceandenjoyedYoYgrowthinthetotalretailsalesvolumein2022despiteitstwomonthsofalmostzerosalesvolumeamidlockdownsFigure15PVretailsalesvolumeYoYgrowthcontributionbycityin2022SourceCATARCCMBIGMChinese-brandmarketshareroseto44in2022RetailsalesvolumeforChinesebrandsrose71YoYin2022outpacingtheindustrywideYoYdeclineof28byalmost10pptsthankstorisingdemandforNEVsExcludingNEVsretailsalesvolumeofChinese-brandICEvehiclesfell24YoYin2022weakerthantheoverallICEsegments16YoYdeclinePLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1218Jan2023Chinese-brandmarketshareinaretailsalesvolumebasiswidenedto438in2022upfrom397in2021WeexpectChinesebrandsmarketshareonawholesalebasistoexceed50in2023aidedbyNEVsandexportsFigure16Chinesebrandsmarketsharetrailing12-monthbasisSourceCATARCCMBIGMLackofNEVmodelsleadstotraditionalluxurysunderperformanceThetotalretailsalesvolumeoftraditionalluxurybrandsdropped67YoYto35mnunitsin2022underperformingtheoverallindustryby39pptsmissingourexpectationatthebeginningof2022Traditionalluxurybrandsmarketsharenarrowedfortwoyearsinarowto149in2022Whilesupplychainconstraintscouldplayanimportantroletotraditionalluxurybrandsunderperformancein2021lackofcompetitiveNEVmodelsbecamemoreapparentfortheirweaksalesvolumein2022RetailsalesvolumeofluxuryICEvehiclesfell9YoYin2022outperformingtheindustrywideICEdeclineof16YoYduringthesameperiodWeprojecttraditionalluxurybrandstoextenditsmarketsharelossin2023basedonourcompiledNEVmodelpipelineforthesebrandsFigure17Chinatraditionalluxuryautomarketsharebycitytiertrailing12-monthbasisMarketShareJun2022Jul2022Aug2022Sep2022Oct2022Nov2022Dec2022Tier1216215212212213211209Tier2183182181182183184184Tier3102102102104106107108Tier4andbelow67686869707172Nationwide145145144145147148149SourceCATARCCMBIGMMercedes-Benzregainedtheluxury-salescrownfromBMWin2022withonly3800morevehiclessoldinChinaBMWpostedhigherretailsalesvolumethanMercedes-Benzforlocally-producedmodelsinChinaasitstartedlocalproductionoftheX5in2022SuchlocalizationreducedBMWsvehicleimportsTheGermanBigThreeMercedes-BenzBMWAudiremaineddominantinthetraditionalluxurybrandsaccountingformarketshareof72HoweverNEVluxurybrandsespeciallyTeslahavebeenchallengingthePLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1318Jan2023BigThreeIn2023weexpectTeslatosurpassAudiintermsofretailsalesvolumeinChinaTherankingfrom3rdto10thpositionsforeachbrandremainedthesamein2022versus2021Despitelowcomparisonbaseamidsupplychainconstraintsin2021mosttraditionalluxurybrandspostedretailsalesvolumeYoYdeclinesin2022exceptMercedes-BenzandPorscheRetailsalesvolumeforPorscheonlyrose1YoYin2022thehighestinthetop10listFigure18Top10traditionalluxuryautobrandsretailsalesvolumeinChinaDec2022MarketShareinUnitsYoY20222022YoY2022LuxurySegmentTotalLuxury3041011793047174-671000Mercedes-Benz7022310077406805254BMW76018408770275-62253Audi65781261642909-70211Cadillac21905200186086-20161Lexus15343-114182666-16760Volvo19544261166801-2855Porsche10228-209943660931Lincoln6520-25879362-13426LandRover6992-6267920-15222MINI2328-1528812-6209SourceCATARCCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1418Jan2023Figure19Chinapassenger-vehiclewholesalevolumebyOEMbrandSalesVolumeinSalesVolumein2022YoY2022MarketYoYMoMDec2022units2022unitsShareChineseOEMs131327312614411741886235500Geely124029-67-23125286113153GreatWallMotor63655-537-137880808-16038Changan1616861045435137140212258SAIC-GM-Wuling166254-2117213025542955SAIC86891-1751878391861736BYD2285961333091852625153879GACMotorinclAion6798940824663436241827Chery100444-5363115996732349Dongfeng513137917452200424322FAW115741664407576910703BAIC16309240575106750-22905NIO1581550811512248534005LiAuto2123350741213324647206Xpeng11292-29494312075723005Weltmeister13-997-91529450-33301Neta7795-230-483152073118306LeapMotor84938855111168147605GermanBrands385579-120120437076833186VW212601-13517023327307799Audi52968-196277599348-6926BMW60119216276650502028Mercedes-Benz46796-177-956247404427Jetta8301-587-224148900-16406JapaneseBrands319741-2781254188030-57178Honda119298-2124341388382-9059Toyota134454-281-110183834911078Nissan57130-351317818705-18235Mazda5901-1496892748-45304Mitsubishi2257-678181433776-48801AmericanBrands173093-360-22921752840793Buick47346-479-102677927-18229Chevrolet20231-541-2362769022612Cadillac2662433119215278-7709Ford17964-29046220648-11109Lincoln5132-57526671807-18403Tesla55796-212-44471086550330KoreanBrands35380-371134381049-25916Hyundai25056-379163250424-30511Kia10324-35270130625-15106Others31148-872123536662415PSA9700-2885911513221805Volvo162802716841462974306Jaguar217220681132078014001LandRover1063-618-63729957-17701Total2258214-629723473924961000SourceCPCACMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1518Jan2023Figure20Chinapassenger-vehiclemonthlyretailsalesvolumebyOEMbrandRetailSalesRetailSalesVolume2022YoYMoMVolumeinDec2022UnitsYoYin2022UnitsChineseOEMsGeelyinclLynkcoGeometry1585711078291089687-154Zeekr114192162497144111821GreatWall98454-143926741698-258Changan1721914277911153120-11SAICMotor46704-172790393367-279GACTrumpchi40160113894303304-38GACAion25605498330213838743BYD216616102022916030101227SAIC-GM-Wuling75261-258349797544-212BAICMagna1629429534118951464Voyah1607-48848173731696NIO1505043663120158322Lixiang21394516373135296482Xpeng11526-295982120449246Weltmeister548-873-48834637-28Neta227749954341460991256Leapmotor148437566781088681477HumanHorizons224-756-138452067JinkangSeres108575186-19708537499ForeignOEMsSAICVW1606061146621242704-157FAWVW2147862187181743954-39BeijingBenz5489115018258350936BMWBrilliance6659755723465794904FAWToyota9651814159280733214GACToyota1192492585021006768249DongfengHonda68077-200879653062-159GACHonda84834-50739724925-54DongfengNissan109695-561015891988-189GACMitsubishi2530-598184629096-567SAICGM104766-1264931002659-219ChanganFord18484-193431169759-168TeslaChina41687-406-328441697372GACFCA183-90315776030-784VolvoAsiaPacific17785318539147411-08CheryJLR57868254050144-152BeijingHyundai3585493945260405-320YuedaKia10469-23593494335-405TotalVolumeexclimports245779412457319730972-21ImportsbyBrandLexus15343-114214182666-167BMW9421-16149112326-323Mercedes-Benz1343826131163452-72Porsche10228-2091919436609Audi3424-24420944544-430TotalImports67096-134166768288-181TotalRetailSalesVolume252489011555920499260-28SourceCATARCCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1618Jan2023AppendixMajorBrandsDiscountsatDealersFigure21BeijingBenzdiscountsatdealersFigure22BMWBrilliancediscountsatdealersSourceThinkerCarCMBIGMSourceThinkerCarCMBIGMFigure23FAWAudidiscountsatdealersFigure24FAWVWdiscountsatdealersSourceThinkerCarCMBIGMSourceThinkerCarCMBIGMFigure25SAICVWdiscountsatdealersFigure26CadillacdiscountsatdealersSourceThinkerCarCMBIGMSourceThinkerCarCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1718Jan2023Figure27BuickdiscountsatdealersFigure28DongfengNissandiscountsatdealersSourceThinkerCarCMBIGMSourceThinkerCarCMBIGMFigure29FAWToyotadiscountsatdealersFigure30GACToyotadiscountsatdealersSourceThinkerCarCMBIGMSourceThinkerCarCMBIGMFigure31GACHondadiscountsatdealersFigure32DongfengHondadiscountsatdealersSourceThinkerCarCMBIGMSourceThinkerCarCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1818Jan2023Figure33ChangandiscountsatdealersFigure34GeelydiscountsatdealersSourceThinkerCarCMBIGMSourceThinkerCarCMBIGMFigure35GreatWallMotordiscountsatdealersFigure36BYDdiscountsatdealersSourceThinkerCarCMBIGMSourceThinkerCarCMBIGMFigure37SAICPVdiscountsatdealersFigure38GACTrumpchiAiondiscountsatdealersSourceThinkerCarCMBIGMSourceThinkerCarCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1918Jan2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE20