研究报告全文：17Jan2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdateHuitongdaNetwork9878HKBUYMaintainQualitygrowthwithadvancedprofitabilityTargetPriceHK632PreviousTPHK700UpDownside526WekeepconfidentonHTDtodeliverabove-industrialgrowthandmarginCurrentPriceHK414improvementinthelongrun2H22E1Q23Emomentumwouldbedisruptedbyepidemicoutbreakreopeningimpactforecastingrevadjnetprofit1617YoYin2H22EbutwellanticipatedbythemarketWeexpectHTDtobenefitfromChinaInternetSectorconsumptionrecoverypostreopeningandforecastitsFY23Eearnings30YoYwithmoderatebuthigh-qualitytoplinegrowth21YoYHTDannouncedSophieHuangvoluntarylock-upundertakingsmadebycertainshareholderslastweek85239000889suggestingconfidencefromshareholdersTofactorinepidemicimpactandsophiehuangcmbicomhkqualitygrowthtargetwetrimmeditstoplineby5-26inFY22-24EwithnewTPatHK632025xFY23EPSor43xFY23EPEMorecatalyststocome1EasonXupotentialpositiveprofitalertand2bizrecoveryfrom2Q23E85239000849easonxucmbicomhkFactoringinepidemicoutbreakreopeningimpactWeexpect2H22Erevadjnet1617YoY1312belowconsensus2H22EpotentialStockDataMktCapHKmn24697slowdownshouldbemainlyattributableto1risingcovidcasesafterAvg3mthstoHKmn492reopeningtodampengrowthofvehiclesandautopartshousehold52wHighLowHK647279applianceandhomebuildingmaterialsand2FoxconnincidenttoaffectTotalIssuedSharesmn180consumerelectronicsmomentumforecastingrev27in2H22Eand3SourceBloombergmoderateservicebizexpansionformacrochallengesforecastingrev57in2H22Evsprior109YoYHoweverweexpectitsmarginexpansionShareholdingStructureWangJianguo2192trendintactinwhichGPMwouldseesequentialgrowthin2H22EuptoAlibabaChina138233andOPMupto1204pptsHoHWeseehighvisibilityforHTDXuXiuxian1015todeliver30earningsgrowthinFY22E2H22EdecelerationdisruptedbySourceBloombergepidemicshouldbeforgivableandtransitoryandwesuggesttomoveintoitslong-termsharegainandadvancedprofitabilitySharePerformanceAbsoluteRelativeQualitygrowthwithcontinuousmarginimprovementinFY23ELooking1-mth258120intoFY23EweexpectHTDspriorityshifttohigh-qualitygrowthand3-mth156-118profitabilityenhancementratherthanaggressiveexpansionAssuchwe6-mth-229-280SourceBloombergresetitstoplinebottomlinegrowthat2132YoYinFY23EstilllargelyaboveindustrialestimatedGMVof12YoYWekeepconfidentonits12-mthPricePerformanceabove-industrialgrowthbackedby1resilientdemandinlow-tiermarketsHK9878HKHSIrebasedwithcategoryexpansionand2consumptionrecoverypostreopeningWe70expectservicebusinessrev30YoYinFY23E1Q23Emightbesofton60coviddisruptionsbutiswellanticipatedbythemarket50MaintainBUYTofactorinepidemicimpactandpriorityonqualitygrowth4030wetrimmedHTDsFY22-24Etoplineforecastby5-26Afterfinancial20resettingwekeeppositiveonitsseculargrowth2130toplinebottom10lineCAGRinFY22-24EandbettermarginoutlookOurSOTP-basedTP0wasadjustedtoHK632Feb-22May-22Aug-22Nov-22EarningsSummarySourceBloombergYE31DecFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenueRMBmn657638137298713118509AuditorKPMGYoYgrowth325237213201AdjnetincomeRMBmn328431568732AdjEPSRMB06081013YoYgrowth664317317289ConsensusEPSRMBNA081420PEx58493729PSx032026021018Yield00000000NetgearingNetcashNetcashNetcashNetcashSourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOANDhttpwwwcmbicomhk17Jan2023Figure12H22EfinancialpreviewRmbmn1H202H201H212H211H222H22ERevenue206792895029975357893989541477YoYgrowthNANA450236331159HoHgrowthNA4003519411540Grossprofit498847771109711501372GPM242926312933OperatingprofitIFRS96311257382336481OPM051109110812NetprofitIFRS-231-49-138-39200388NPM-11-02-05-010509AdjustednetprofitattributabletoequityshareholdersNon-IFRS17179119209187245AdjustedNPMattributabletoequityshareholders010604060506YoYgrowthNANA5814165577169SourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesFigure2RevenuebreakdownRmbmn1H202H201H212H211H222H22ECommercebusinessRevenue205242877829757354693948540996totalrev992994993991990988YoYgrowthNANA450232327156GPM192722242124ServicebusinessRevenue109133168270364424totalrev050506080910YoYgrowthNANA53510251172569GPM598428446785754819OthersRevenue463850504557totalrev020102010101YoYgrowthNANA80304-99150GPM752621815844814850SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure3CMBIGMestimatesvsconsensusCMBIGMConsensusDiffRMBmnDec-YEFY22EFY23EFY24EFY22EFY23EFY24EFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenue813729871311850986904114527146876-64-138-193GrossProfit252233774239267340435427-56-165-219OperatingProfit81798912948061350199413-267-351Adjnetprofit4315687324568151187-55-303-383AdjEPSRMB077101130083140202-71-278-356GrossMargin31343631353700ppts-01ppts-01pptsOperatingMargin10101109121401ppts-02ppts-03pptsAdjnetmargin05060605070800ppts-01ppts-02pptsSourceCMBIGMestimatesBloombergFigure4EarningsrevisionNewOldDiffRMBmnDec-YEFY22EFY23EFY24EFY22EFY23EFY24EFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenue813729871311850985832116393159444-52-152-257GrossProfit252233774239269640905817-65-174-271OperatingProfit817989129490514542302-97-319-438Adjnetprofit4315687324648061261-69-295-419EPSRMB077101130082143224-69-295-419GrossMargin313436313536-00ppts-01ppts-01pptsOperatingMargin101011111214-01ppts-02ppts-04pptsNetMargin050606050708-00ppts-01ppts-02pptsSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE217Jan2023GivenitsdiversifiedmonetizationweadoptedSOTPforvaluationWeappliedFY23EEVSalesmultiple02x5xforitscommercebizservicebizyieldingTPofHK632OurSOTPvaluationsuggests025xFY23EPSor43xFY23EPEWeselectedfivegroupcompsforpeercomparisoninwhichecommercetradeat17xFY23EEVSalesonaverageandSaaSat35xFY23EEVSalesGivenitsbizmodelwethinkJDwouldbethemostcomparableoneanditsSOTPvaluation025xFY23EPSsuggest55discounttoJDAsleadinglower-tiercommerceplayerwethinktherearere-ratingupsideforHTDbackedbyits1strongsupplychainlocalizationtobuildhighbarrierand22130FY22-24ErevearningsCAGRandmarginenhancementvsindustrialaverageat1520revearningsCAGRFigure5SOTPvaluationBusinessRMBmn23ERevMultipleMethodologyValueCommercebusiness97575020xEVSales19515Servicebusiness102550xEVSales5125EnterpriseValue24640NetCash5440EquityValue30080FX085ValuationHKmn35388TPHKbasedonSOTP63SourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesFigure6CompstableSourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesCompanyTickerMktcapCurrencyPriceCMBICMBIPEPSEVEBITUSDmnRaitingTPFY22EFY23EFY24EFY22EFY23EFY24EFY22EFY23EFY24EHuitongda9878HK3025HKD42BUY6348736928702020119311578ECServiceProviderBaozunBZUNUS477USD8BUY81911237104040320215681LilyBeauty605136CH774CNY13NANA24416913513110915810988Ruoyuchen003010CH314CNY17NANANA574363191715855457287Onechance300792CH953CNY27NANA22717815749403514811598Transcosmos9715JP1235JPY3260NANA76107101050504545754Average185144166181513283179122ChinaEcommercePinduoduoPDDUS122645USD97BUY93225195155635042222176134AlibabaBABAUS309788USD117BUY156151129111242119160132113JDcomJDUS100466USD64BUY79257206161060605315212156VipshopVIPSUS9562USD16NANA989489060606827570Suningcom002024CH3096CNY2NANANANA676030202NANA420Meituan3690HK129685HKD164BUY216NA632299403225NANA379YatsenYSGUS945USD2NANANANANA181614NANANAAverage183156163231916195149212GlobalEcommerceAmazonAMZNUS1000986USD98NANA690339236201816897469289eBayEBAYUS25103USD46NANA1271161092626259910398GrouponGRPNUS261USD9NANANA11556040404NANA209Average127190134171615498286199SaaSYouzan8083HK261HKD0NANANANANA282521NANANAWeimob2013HK1507HKD6NANANANANA715647NANANAKEHoldingsBEKEUS18081USD20BUY23910335262282420NA289214Average910335262423529NA289214DeliverySFHolding002352CH37361CNY61BUY94440320238111008290233179YTOExpress600233CH10344CNY21NANA19016213713121013311396JDLogistics2618HK12898HKD16NANANA551285070505NA448205DadaNexusDADAUS1944USD14NANANANA189261914NANA202ZTOExpress2057HK21078HKD222BUY307234193159433733191157129FullTruckYMMUS7648USD10NANA5743932261129269NA724215Average359267206352923205335171Average205185167272319224222171PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE317Jan2023FinancialSummaryIncomestatementCashflowsummaryYE31DecRMBmnFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24EYE31DecRMBmnFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenue49629657638137298713118509Netincome4051168340568732Commercebusiness49302652268048197575117139DA8037526069Servicebusiness24343878810251246ChangeinWC21349012797561262Others84100102113124Others13371291558582561COGS48285638957884995336114270OperatingCF472815671454100Grossprofit13451868252233774239Capex3115456060SM610864119214771740Purchaseofinvestments17164----AdminExp415479540685822Others193341812---RD5879119225383InvestingCF21381827456060Othergains122137124--Otherrev235621--Equityraised-----Operatingprofit4076398179891294ChangeofDebts289107---CashfromCBraised1200----Otherincomeexpnet60471381176130Others3732301977--Pre-taxIncome1977473611661423FinancingCF5383371977--IncomeTax81101148291313Netchangeincash31481349260239440Netprofit405350340568732Cashbegofyr11684316296755695963Adjnetprofit197328431568732FX-----Cashendofyr43162967556959636003BalancesheetKeyratiosYE31DecRMBmnFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24EYE31DecFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24ENon-currentassets14202245223822382229SalesmixPropertyandequipment4543567378Commercebusiness993992989988988Right-of-useassets128111917461Servicebusiness0507101011Intangibleassets-----Others0202010101Others12472091209120912091Total10001000100010001000Currentassets2027523353295533411739073Cash43162967556959636003GrowthratePrepayments66208417105851332116593Revenue137325237213201Financialassetsatfair22222Grossprofit51389350339255valueTradereceivables18472653334440574870EBIT217570279211307Others74909314100521077511605Adjnetprofit416664317317289Currentliabilities2364327231215172492728575PLratiosAccountspayables1141914419170661985122854Operatingmargin0810101011Otherpayables495661697832988Pre-taxmargin0401091212Advancesfromcustomers1----Adjnetmargin0405050606Others1172812151375442444732Effectivetaxrate0202020302Non-currentliabilities97849094100ReturnsLeaseliabilities8067676767ROE1131741025361Others1717222732ROA1014151719MI12561358135813581358TotalEquity20441717101041109312387Shareholdersequity20441717101841133412628SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE417Jan2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMoritsaffiliateshaveinvestmentbankingrelationshipwiththeissuerscoveredinthisreportinpreceding12monthsCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE5