>> 招银国际-China Internet – December online retail sales recap-230117
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研究报告全文：17January2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchSectorUpdateOUTPERFORMChinaInternetMaintainDecemberonlineretailsalesrecapNBSreleased17JanuaryDecandfullyear2022onlineretailsalesdataYoYChinaInternetSectorgrowthofonlinephysicalgoodsGMVreacceleratedto44YoYinDec202212YoYinNovwhichinourviewcouldbeattributedtorecoveryinlogisticsSaiyiHECFAandfulfilmentcapabilityinlateDecandfrontloadedsalesgeneratedfromthe85239161739SpringFestivalshoppingfestivalduetotheearlySpringFestivalin2023ButhesaiyicmbicomhksolidrecoveryinYoYgrowthtrajectorylikelytakestimeinourviewechoedbythe47YoYonlineretailsalesgrowthduringthefirstfivedaysoftheshoppingYeTAOfestival30Dec2022-3Jan2023perMinistryofCommerceThatsaidwefranktaocmbicomhkexpectconsumptiontograduallyrecoveralongwithmacrorecoverybackedbyeconomicstimuluspolicyandeasingpandemicoutbreaksWeforecast12WentaoLUYoYgrowthinonlineretailsalesGMVofphysicalgoodsonthebackof7YoYluwentaocmbicomhkgrowthintotalretailsalesin2023ERegardingstockpickweexpectthemarketRelatedReportswillfirstfocusonearningsvisibilityqualityandthenwillmoveontochase1AlibabaBABAUSLookingstockswithnewgrowthdriversWemaintainBUYonAlibabaPinduoduobeyondshort-termpandemicMeituanandJDcomimpact12Jan2023OnlinepenetrationofretailsalesreachedanewhighinDecamidfirst2JDJDUSExpectinglimitedwaveofpandemicimpactPerNBSChinasonlineretailsalesGMVgrewadditionalfinancialimpactfrom40YoYin2022vsatwo-yearCAGRof125in2021Specificallypandemicspreadin4Q229Jan2023onlinephysicalgoodsGMVrose62YoYin20222021120implying44YoYgrowthinDec2022and64YoYin4Q223Q2271YoY3ChinaInternet-QualitygrowthOnlineretailsalespenetrationofphysicalgoodsrosefurtherto272inandfurtherdigitizationpenetration2022202124511M22271coupledwiththefirstwaveimpactofprovidegrowthsupport-19DecpandemicinfectionHoweverweexpectonlinepenetrationtoseesome4Internet-Novemberonlineretailshort-termvolatilitygivenarecoveryinofflineactivitiesin1H23Bytypessalesrecap16DecofconsumptiononlineretailsalesGMVoffoodclothinggoodsgrew16135YoYin2022from15134YoYin11M225PinduoduoPDDUS-Strongrevenueandearningsgrowth-29TheworstlikelybehindusbutsolidrecoverytakestimeAccordingtoNovNBStotalretailsalesGMVofconsumergoodswasdown18YoYinDec2022Nov2022-59YoYbetterthanWindconsensusof-65YoY6Meituan-Long-termdevelopmentintactdespiteshort-termheadwindTheYoYdeclineincateringservicesGMVworsenedto141inDec2022-28NovJulAugSepOctNov-1584-17-81-84whichcanbeattributedtoreducedofflineactivitiesduetopandemicinfectionsintheshortterm7InternetInternet3Q22previewbuttheworstislikelybehindusRegardingkeycategoriesinretailsalesneartermbumpyrecovery8NovsalesGMVofapparelcosmeticshouseholdappliancedeclinedby8Meituan3690HKBalancing125193131YoYrespectivelyinDecember2022Nov2022downgrowthandefficiency2Nov15646173YoYAmidthefirst-waveimpactstaplesconsumptionsawrapidgrowthfoodbeverageretailsaleslifted10555YoYinDec20229PinduoduoPDDUSStrongNov202239-62YoYconsumermindshareaidsmonetizationprogressandcostMarketfocuslikelytoturntobothprofitabilityandnewbusinessoptimization27Oct2022growthin2023Lookinginto2023withthesupportofmacrostimuluspolicyandnewonlineretailformattofurtherincreasemarketshareielive10JDcomJDUSStabilizingamidsttestingtimes27Oct2022streaminge-commerceon-demandretailweestimatetheYoYgrowthofonlineretailsalesGMVofphysicalgoodscouldrecoverto120E-11AlibabaBABAUSConsolidatecommerceplatformislikelytomaintaintheirstrategytotargetforqualitystrengthgrowingnewhorizonsgrowththroughdrivingforhigherrepurchaserateandcrosscategorysales27Oct2022in1H23whenconsumptionwilingnessremainssoftMeanwhileleveragingChinasstrongsupplychainadvantagee-commerceplatformscouldbroadentheiroverseasexpansiontounlocklong-termgrowthpotentialWeexpectthemarketwillfirstfocusonearningsvisibilityqualityandthenwillmoveontochasestockswithnewgrowthdriversWemaintainBUYonAlibabaPinduoduoMeituanandJDPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk17January2023Figure1YoYgrowthofonlineretailsalesofphysicalgoods20151050May-21Jul-21Sep-21Nov-212M22Apr-22Jun-22Aug-22Oct-22Dec-22-5-10SourceNBSCMBIGMFigure2YoYgrowthofonlineretailsalesGMVoffoodclothingconsumergoodsOnlineretailsalesgrowthoffoodOnlineretailsalesgrowthofclothing50Onlineretailsalesgrowthofconsumergoods403020100-10-20-307M196M188M183M195M199M192M204M206M208M203M215M217M219M212M224M226M228M2212M2210M1812M1811M1910M2012M2011M2110M22SourceNBSCMBIGMFigure3Onlinepenetrationofphysicalgoodsretailsales30252015105020172019202020212022201620162017201720172017201720182018201820182018201820192019201920192019202020202020202020202021202120212021202120222022202220222022--------------------------------------0402020202101202060810120204060810120406081012040608101204060810120406081012SourceNBSCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE217January2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBISwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE3
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