研究报告全文：FixedIncomeCreditCommentary16Jan2023CMBICreditCommentaryFixedIncomeDailyMarketUpdate固定收益部市场日报MarketswasratherquietwithnoliveUSTtodayWesawbalancedtwowaysinLGFVswhileslightlymorecashparkingdemandemergedon23sIGGlennKoCFA高志和papershadbetterbuyingflowsonlessthan3ypapersamidthinliquidity85236576235NewDALWAN25wasmarked025pthigherat97598levelthismorningglennkocmbicomhkChinesePropertiesContractedsalesofthe38developersunderourradarslumped526in2022yoySeebelowCyrenaNgCPA吳蒨瑩ChinaEconomyChinaexportsplungedamidoverseasrecessionrisk85239000801cyrenangcmbicomhkCMBIexpectsChinasexportsofgoodstodrop35in2023afterrising7in2022duetooverseasrecessionanddisinflationcycleSeeoureconomicresearchbelowJerryWang王世超Tradingdeskcomments交易台市场观点85237618919jerrywangcmbicomhkLastFridayChinaIGspacehadaverystrongdayasstreetcontinuedtodeploycashonrecentnewissuespostUSCPIdataextendeditsdownwardtrendinDecHKnamesHKINTLHKAAbroadlytightened3-5bpsHKAA10ypaperwasnotablysqueezed8bpstighterintoT100levelbeforecloseKoreanameslikePOHANGEIBKORHYUELEtightenedby5-15bpsespeciallyonPOHANGcurveasbetterbuyingemergedwithmixedtwowayonPOHANG28sChinafinancialsspacewereroughlystableandskewedtobetterbuyingwithAMCsshowedmoretwo-waysGRWALLclosed10-20bpstighteracrossthecurveT2benchmarkCCBsturnedweakertoground4-6bpswiderTMTnameswererelativelymutedWesawTMT10ypaperslargelyunchangedwhilelessthan5ybenchmarknameslikeBIDUTENCNTJDtightened2-4bpsunderbetterbuyingflowsBBB-technamesXIAOMILENOVOwidened3-7bpsFitchaffirmedMEITUAatBBB-withoutlookremainednegativeonFridayInIGpropertiesmarketsentimentwassignificantlyboostedasDalianWandaCommercialpricedat12375foritsUSD400mn2YReg-SbondBa3BBbyMoodysFitchNewDALWAN25gained05-15ptstobeindicatedat975levelwhileits23s24sclosedat9997byEODrespectivelyLNGFORsnotablytightened20-30bpsInChinaHYspacepropertysectorwasbroadlydown05-1ptonthedayasprofit-takingflowsprevailedBetanamesCOGARDswereunchangedto05ptlowerwhileCIFIHGsweredown1-2ptsAGILEsGRNLGRsweredown1-25ptsontheshortendCENCHIsfurthertumbled3-5ptsafterhavingdropped5-7ptsonThursdayOntheotherhandSINOCEPerpsROADKGPerpsclosed15-35ptshigherHKpropertynamesNWDEVLperpretracedto2ptslowerInindustrialspaceFOSUNIswerebidup05-15ptsMacaugamingnamesSANLTDsSTCITYsdropped05-15ptsOutsideChinaIndianHYVEDLNscontinuedtheirgaintobequoted05-2pthigherafterThursdaygainof3-4ptsInIndonesianspaceLPKRIJ25sand26swereindicatedlargelyunchangedat88and79levelLMRTSPswerealsounchangedto05ptlowerPLEASEREADTHEAUTHORCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGECMBIFixedIncomefiscmbicomhk116Jan2023IntheLGFVAT1SOEPerpspacemarketsloweddownatouchasChineseclientsbegintooffforCNYholidayTheunderlyingtonenonethelessremainedupbeatandgenerallyoptimisticamidsoliddeploymentflowsfromonshoreChinesemoneyinLGFVsandSOEPerpsThatsaidtherewerealsoafewLGFVnamesmainlyfromChongqingandShandongthatbegantoshowsignsofsaturationasAMcontinuedtotryandoffloadwhilstbuyerlineswerelargelyfilledElsewhereAT1sweremixedwithdurationpapersstillresilientandbetterbidamidratesstrengthwhilstshortdatedtocallpapersshowedafurtherbitofswitchingoutInSOEsspacewesawbetterbuyingingeneralandflowsmorefocusedon5yorshorterwithnameslikeHAOHUACNOOCSINOPEHUANENLastTradingDaysTopMoversTopPerformersPriceChangeTopUnderperformersPriceChangeSINOCE6876PERP54336CENCHI765082723388-47MSFLCZ31503102495034CENCHI734052424342-36YUEXIU3801203172725CNOOC478043044907-28CHINSC71404192378922AGILE512042125609-22JSTLIN50504053284322NWDEVL418PERP786-20MacroNewsRecap宏观新闻回顾MacroUSstockmarketsreboundedonlastFridaySP04Dow033andNasdaq071roseupasthemarketsinflationexpectationsfallUSconsumersentimentimprovedthattheUniversityofMichiganSurveyofConsumersupto646forJan23from605inDec22highestlevelinpast9monthsTheUStreasuryoveralluponlastFridayThe251030yieldscurvesreached422360349361respectivelyDeskanalystcomments分析员市场观点ChinesePropertiesContractedsalesofthe38developersunderourradarslumped526in2022yoyInDec2225outof38developersunderourradarrecordedamomincreaseincontractedsalesinwhichHPDLFCRHZCHGRNLGRandCENCHIrecordedover100momincreaseThetotalcontractedsalesforthe38developersincreasedby332mominDec22comparedto132momdecreaseinNov22Thecumulativecontractedsalesof38developersdecreasedby526in2022slightlybetterthanthe536decreasenotedfor11M22Amongstthedevelopersunderourradaroutperformersin2022areYLLGSPRMB681bn14yoyYUEXIURMB1250bn9yoyandCRHZCH3013bn-5yoyUnderperformersareDAFAPGRMB60bn-84yoyCAPGRMB202bn-83yoyandZHPRHKRMB334bn-77yoy216Jan2023ChinaEconomyChinaexportsplungedamidoverseasrecessionriskChinasexportsofgoodsfurtherplungedamidoverseaseconomicslowdowndestockinganddisinflationTheimportsofgoodsalsodeterioratedasChinasdomesticdemandtemporarilyweakenedafterreopeningLookingforwardweexpectChinasexportsofgoodstodrop35in2023afterrising7in2022duetooverseasrecessionanddisinflationcycleTheimportsofgoodsareexpectedtorise05in2023downfromthegrowthof11in2022TheresumptionofdomesticdemandshouldprovidesomesupporttoimportvolumegrowthHoweverthedisinflationcycleincommodityandindustrialproductswillslowthegrowthinChinasimportsofgoodsTheweaknessofforeigntradeactivitypointstoadditionaldownsidepressureonChinasgrowthasthecontributionofnetexportstototalGDPgrowthshouldsignificantlydeclinethisyearChinafacespressuretostabilizeitspropertymarketandresumehouseholdconsumptionthisyearExportsofgoodsfurtherplungedamidoverseaseconomicslowdowndestockinganddisinflationChinasexportsofgoodsdropped99YoYinDecemberafterdropping89YoYinNovemberWeestimateexportpriceindexandvolumeindexmayhaverespectivelyincreased10YoYanddropped18YoYinDecemberBydestinationChinasexportstoEUandUSrespectivelydropped195and175YoYinDecemberafterdecreasing254and106YoYinNovemberMeanwhileexportstoJapandropped33YoYupfromtheYoYdeclineof56inthepreviousmonthHoweverexportstoASEANpickedup75YoYinDecemberafterrising31YoYinNovemberByproductChinasexportsofautodataprocessingequipmentintegratedcircuitstoysfurniturelampssharplyslowedashomeeconomyandhousingmarketsignificantlycooleddowninoverseasHowevertheexportsofautoshomeapplianceandmedicalequipmentmaintainedstronggrowththankstoChinasconsolidationofcompetitivenessinthosesectorsImportsremainedweakascommodityinflationdeclinedandimportvolumecontinuedtoshrinkChinasimportsdropped75YoYinDecemberafterdecreasing106YoYinNovemberCommodityinflationsharplydeclinedamidbaseeffectandglobalrecessionriskWeestimatethegrowthofimportpriceindexmayhavedeclinedfrom64inNovembertobelow5inDecemberAsdomesticdemandstartedtoresumeafterthepeakoftheOmicronwaveimportvolumetendedtoreboundByproductimportvolumeofsoybeandropped316Jan202356in12M2022upfromthedeclineof81in11M2022ItmayfurtherimproveascateringservicedemandgraduallyreboundedafterreopeningImportvolumeofironoreandsteelproductsrespectivelydeclined15and259YoYin12M2022aspropertydevelopmentinvestmentremainedweakImportvolumeofcrudeoilnaturalgasrespectivelydropped09and99YoYin12M2022Meanwhileimportvolumeofintegratedcircuitsautosandmachinetoolsrespectivelydropped15365and144YoYasdurableconsumptionandbusinesscapexwassluggishWeexpectexportstodrop35andimportstorise05in2023ChinasexportsofgoodsarelikelytoseesignificantYoYdeclinesin1H2023duetooverseasrecessiondestockingcycleanddisinflationtrendTheexportsmaygraduallyimprovein2H2023For2023weexpectexportstodrop35comparedtothegrowthof7in2022ChinasimportsvolumeshouldreboundasdomesticdemandwouldgraduallyimproveafterreopeningHoweverthedisinflationincommodityandindustrialproductsmayslowthegrowthofimportsWeexpecttheimportsofgoodstorise05in2023afterclimbing11in2022TheweaknessinforeigntradeincreasestheneedtostabilizepropertymarketandresumeconsumptionforChinaTheweakeningofforeigntradeactivitybringsdownsidepressureonChinasgrowthWeexpectthecontributionofnextexportstoChinasGDPgrowthtodeclinefrom09pptin2022to03pptin2023ItincreasesthenecessityforChinatostabilizeitsrealestatemarketandresumehouseholdconsumptionasthenewleaderstrytoachieveagrowthabove5thisyearToboostthegrowthChinahasreopeneditseconomyloosenedpropertypolicyandmarkedapro-businessshiftrecentlyWeexpectthepolicymakersmayfurthereasecreditsupplytopropertysectorandlaunchmorepro-businesspoliciesaheadClickhereforfullreportOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPricedSizeUSDIssueRatingIssuerGuarantorTenorCouponYieldmnMSFNoOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPricedTodayOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPipelineIssueRatingIssuerGuarantorCurrencySizeUSDmnTenorPricingMSFAsahiMutualLifeInsuranceUSD-Perp---BBBCompanyNewsandmarketcolorRegardingonshoreprimaryissuancestherewere112creditbondsissuedonlastFridaywithanamountofRMB98bnAsforMonth-to-date759creditbondswereissuedwithatotalamountofRMB689bnraisedrepresentinga33yoydecreaseChineseNewhomepricesin55outof70citiessurveyedbytheNBSreportedamomdropinDec22BasedontheNBSdataReutersscalculationshowedaveragehomepricesacross70majorcitiesinChinadropped15yoyinDec22MediareportedthatChinesefinancialregulatorsareworkingona21-pointactionplanthatwouldincludeaRMB200bncUSD293bnspecialfundtohelpresidentialpropertiesdeliveriesandanotherRMB100bncUSD149bntosupportrentalhousingloans416Jan2023AGILEAgileproposestoofferuptoRMB12bncUSD1790mnCBICL-guaranteed3-yearMTNstofundprojectdevelopmentandboostworkingcapitalCAPGChinaAoyuansunitAoyuanHealthyLifeannounces17keyirregularitiesduringinternalcontrolassessmentandtheyhavetakenstepstoremedyeachofthemTheirregularitiesrangingfrominsufficientsupervisionanddocumentationoversharetransferstoparentAoyuanGroupFTHDGRFantasiaproposedoffshoredebtrestructuringofUSD4bnseniornotescreditorswillreceive8seriesofnewUSDdenominatednotesmaturingfromDec24toJun29Thenewnoteswillcarrycouponfrom5-8followinginitialPIKperiodsJDJDcomconsiderstospin-offitslogisticspropertyandindustriale-commercebusinessunitsintoseparatelistingseachofthelistingcouldraisecUSD1bnKAISAGKaisaGroupwassuedbyHKinvestoroverUSD102mnprincipalandinterestsrelatingto4bondsthatKaisadefaultedonPCORPMPetronCorpacceptedUSD225mninthetenderofferofitsUSD500mnPCORPM46PERPUSD4775mnnowremainsoutstandingROADKGRoadKinggainedshareholdersapprovaltounwind3JVswithAgileGroupin3residentialpropertydevelopmentinChangzhouJiangsuProvinceinChinaRSMACARedStarMacallinesaidAlibabaintendstoexercisetheexchangerightsundertheRMB4bnexchangeablebondstoobtain2482mnAsharesofthecompanyatRMB844pershareCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedFixedIncomeDepartmentTel8523761886785236576291fiscmbicomhkCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankAuthorCertificationTheauthorwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheauthorcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatauthorinthisreportBesidestheauthorconfirmsthatneithertheauthornorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMandoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreport516Jan2023CMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestDisclaimerForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereport6