研究报告全文：FixedIncomeCreditCommentary12Jan2023CMBICreditCommentaryFixedIncomeDailyMarketUpdate固定收益部市场日报MarketswereabitcooldownthismorningcomparedtopreviousdaysNewissueICBCwidenedseveralbpswithcashpriceslightlydownSOELGFVGlennKoCFA高志和sectorswereoveralltwo-waybalanced85236576235glennkocmbicomhkChinaPolicyCreditgrowthslowedinDecemberyetmayreboundin2023CMBIexpectstheGDPgrowthtorisefrom27in2022to51in2023SeebelowforcommentsfromoureconomicresearchCyrenaNgCPA吳蒨瑩DALWANWandapropertiesnewissue2yrUSDbondsIPTat12625As85239000801cyrenangcmbicomhkdiscussedinourAsiaCreditOutlook2023weconsiderDALWANasurvivorofthesectorandconsidertheIPTroughlyfairbenchmarkingitsoutstandingissuesDALWANswereup025-125ptsthismorningJerryWang王世超Tradingdeskcomments交易台市场观点85237618919jerrywangcmbicomhkChinaIGspacehadaquietdayyesterdayIGspreadswerelargelyunchangedasmarketstayedcautiousaheadofThursdayCPIforthecrucialDecemberinflationprintStreetfocuswasstillonrecentnewissuessuchasHKINTLHKAAwhichwere3-5bpstighteronthedayFinancialsspaceweretradedonaslightlyconstructivetoneAMCsoutperformedCCAMCLHRINTHcurveswere5bpstighteronthefrontendBankcapitalbondswerestablewithlightvolumeT2benchmarkCCBsweretobe2-5bpstighterInTMTsBABAwereindicatedanother3-4bpstighterBIDUXIAOMItightened6-13bpsInIGpropertiesLNGFORsYUEXIUswereunchangedto05pthigherChinaHYwasalsoactivewithpositivenewsinpropertysectorMediareportedChineseregulatorsdeterminedpreliminarylistofdeveloperseligibleforBalanceSheetImprovementPlanandthelistincludedLongforGemdaleSino-OceanCountryGardenSeazenSINOCEswereup15-35ptsCOGARDsbouncedback2-3ptsoffsettingyesterdayslossesFUTLANsFTLNHDsGEMDALswereunchangedto1pthigherCIFIHGswereflatatlow30sElsewhereCENCHIsCHINSCsweremarkeddown25-45ptsInindustrialspaceFOSUNIswerelargelyunchangedamidthenewsofthesigningsofICBC-leddomesticsyndicateloansofRMB12bnthisweekAwayfromChinaIndiaHYVEDLNswereanother2-6ptshigherInIndonesianHYsLMRTSPsclimbedanother3-5ptshighertoclosebetweenmid-70stolow-80sonthedaythebondswere10ptshigherWoWLastnightLPKRIJslauncheditstenderoffersforitsoutstandingUSD405mndue-2025andUSD417mndue-2026atthepricesofupto8777levelonthedollarrespectivelyLPKRIJsalsolineduparoughlyIDR5tnloanfromtwolocalbanksonthesamedayOnnewissuefrontnewHYUELEcurveloststeamas28s33swidenedby3-5bpsandonly26straded8bpsinsideROEXIMBK33salsotradedpoorItcameatT190andweretradedwiderataroundT193levelunderactivetwo-waysWhilstEIBKORsstillhadgooddemandfromclientson28s33sandclosed3-5bpstighterPLEASEREADTHEAUTHORCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGECMBIFixedIncomefiscmbicomhk112Jan2023IntheLGFVSOEPerpAT1spacemarketwasroughlystableBetterbuyinginLGFVspacethankstoNBRMdeployingcashinseveralhigherbetanamesSHGUOHCQNANAwhereAMandHFwerehappytooffloadsellintothebounceMeanwhiledemandinquality24s-26saswellascarrybonds23sremainedfairlysoliddespitevaluationgrindingfurtherrichertowardsmid-to-high-5HavingsaidthatwewerealsoseeingattemptstoseizethewindowandoffloadunwantedweakernamessuchasDFINVHElsewhereAT1sremainedoverallresilientaswellalbeittwo-wayflowsskewedtoslightlybettersellingfromprofittakersintoAMdeploymentbuyingaslow-5forBig-5banknameswashardlycheapalsoconsideringfundinghurdlecostsBetanamesBOCOHKBOCOMCMHIshowedsomeactivetwo-wayflowsMeanwhileSOEPerpscontinuedtoseebettersellingflowsfromChineseaccountsyetbidsremainedfairlyfirmagaindespitegenerallyrichyieldlevelsLastTradingDaysTopMoversTopPerformersPriceChangeTopUnderperformersPriceChangeVEDLN61808092471562CENCHI734052424413-48VEDLN89503112576748CENCHI765082723458-37LMRTSP71202092673646CENCHI79110723434-28LVGEM1203102377444AGILE605101325584-23LPKRIJ63410312680942CPDEV465011926821-22MacroNewsRecap宏观新闻回顾MacroUSstockmarketsrecordedanotherreboundyesterdaySP128Dow080andNasdaq176roseamidoptimisticsentimentthatmarketsexpectstheDecCPIwilldecreaseto65youfrom71yoyinNovChinaDecCPIincreasesto18yoyfrom16yoyinNov22andDecPPIdown-07yoyTheUStreasuryyieldsoveralldownyesterdayThe251030yieldscurveswerereached420366354367respectivelyDeskanalystcomments分析员市场观点ChinaPolicyCreditgrowthslowedinDecemberyetmayreboundin2023ChinasnewcreditcontinuedtodeclineinDecemberaspopulationmobilityandeconomicactivitytemporarilydroppedafterreopeningNewmortgageconsumercreditandshort-ternbusinessoperationloansalldeclinedashousingsaleshouseholdconsumptionandbusinessconditionremainedweakLookingforwardcreditgrowthmaygraduallyreboundin2023asthereopeningcreditlooseningandpro-businessshiftshouldsupportaresumptionineconomicactivityaswellasincreditdemandWeexpectnewrenminbiloansandtotalsocialfinancingtoincrease11and10in2023afterrising49and14in2022TheGDPgrowthisexpectedtorisefrom27in2022to51in2023NewcreditcontinuedtodeclineaseconomicactivityfollowedaJ-curvetrendafterreopeningTotalsocialfinancingdropped447YoYinDecemberafterrising235YoYinNovemberTheYoYgrowthofoutstandingsocialfinancingdeceleratedfrom10inNovemberto96inDecemberNewrenminbiloanstorealsectorpickedup387inDecemberafterdropping121inNovemberHoweveroff-balance-sheetcreditcontinuedtoshrinkamidthenewWMPregulationandriskaversiontowardspropertyprojectsMeanwhilecorporatebondfinancingsharplydeclinedasbusinesscapexweakenedLocalgovernmentbondfinancingalsodroppedaslocalgovernmentsusedupmostoftheirspecialbondquotasinthefirstthreequartersNewmortgageconsumercreditandshort-termbusinessloanscontinuedtodeclineashousingsalesconsumptionandbusinessconditionremainedweakNewmediumtolong-termloanstohouseholdsdroppedby476inDecemberafterdecreasing639inNovemberashousingsalesremainedweakMeanwhilenewshort-termloanstohouseholdswerenegativeasindividualconsumptiondeclinedbefore212Jan2023resumptionshortlyafterthereopeningShort-termloanstoenterprisesalsoexperiencedMoMdeclinesasbusinessconditionfurtherdeterioratedHowevernewmediumlong-termloanstoenterprisesjumpedover200thankstocreditsupporttomanufacturingandinfrastructureinvestmentChinaislikelytomaintaineasingliquidityandcreditpolicyaheadChinasgrowthwillremainbelowthepotentialgrowththisyearasoverseaseconomyslowsdownandtheresumptionofdomesticdemandshouldbeinagradualmannerThereflationpressureafterreopeningshouldbemildforChinaThereforeChinaislikelytomaintaineasingliquidityandcreditpolicyaheadWeexpectthePBOCtocutRRRandLPRsbymoderatemagnitudesthisyearThecentralbankwillfurthereasemortgagepolicytofirst-homeandsecond-homebuyersCreditconditionformanufacturingandservicesectorshouldbeveryeasingThecentralbankwillencouragebankstorolloverthedebtofqualifiedpropertydevelopersandlocalgovernmentfinancingvehiclesClickhereforfullreportOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPricedIssueRatingIssuerGuarantorSizeUSDmnTenorCouponYieldMSFSaudiArabia325035005105yr4754875T110140A1-ASaudiArabia325030yr5055A1-AOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPipelineIssueRatingIssuerGuarantorCurrencySizeUSDmnTenorPricingMSFDalianWandaUSD-2yr12625---HongkongXiangyuInvestmentUSD-35yr71---NewsandmarketcolorRegardingonshoreprimaryissuancestherewere116creditbondsissuedyesterdaywithanamountofRMB111bnAsforMonth-to-date510creditbondswereissuedwithatotalamountofRMB476bnraisedrepresentinga03yoydecreaseCOGARDCountryGardenfurtherrepurchasedUSD2184mnofCOGARD475011723fromopenmarketDALWANMediareportedthatDalianWandaunitexpectstocloseaUSD200mn-USD300mn364daysloanthisweekforrefinancepurposeGDSHDGGDSannouncesprivateplacementofUSD580mn45convertibleseniornotesdue2030GZRFPRGuangzhouRFunitannouncescashPIKinterestpayableinrelationto20252027202865seniornotesKWGPROKWGplanstoissueuptoRMB12bnonshorebondsasearlyas17Jan23LENOVOLenovoFY22PCshipmentsdown285yoyto653mnLPKRIJLippoKarawacicommencestenderofferconsentsolicitationforLPKRIJ812525andLPKRIJ67526312Jan2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedFixedIncomeDepartmentTel8523761886785236576291fiscmbicomhkCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankAuthorCertificationTheauthorwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheauthorcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatauthorinthisreportBesidestheauthorconfirmsthatneithertheauthornorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMandoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestDisclaimerForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereport4