>> 招银国际-China Policy – Credit growth slowed in December yet may rebound in 2023-230111
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研究报告全文：11Jan2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchEconomicPerspectivesChinaPolicyCreditgrowthslowedinDecemberyetmayreboundin2023ChinasnewcreditcontinuedtodeclineinDecemberaspopulationmobilityandBingnanYEPhDeconomicactivitytemporarilydroppedafterreopeningNewmortgageconsumer85237618967creditandshort-ternbusinessoperationloansalldeclinedashousingsalesyebingnancmbicomhkhouseholdconsumptionandbusinessconditionremainedweakLookingforwardKevinZhangcreditgrowthmaygraduallyreboundin2023asthereopeningcreditloosening85253364682andpro-businessshiftshouldsupportaresumptionineconomicactivityaswellkevinzhangcmbicomhkasincreditdemandWeexpectnewrenminbiloansandtotalsocialfinancingtoincrease11and10in2023afterrising49and14in2022TheGDPgrowthisexpectedtorisefrom27in2022to51in202350NewcreditcontinuedtodeclineaseconomicactivityfollowedaJ-curve45trendafterreopeningTotalsocialfinancingdropped447YoYin40Decemberafterrising235YoYinNovemberTheYoYgrowthof35outstandingsocialfinancingdeceleratedfrom10inNovemberto96in30DecemberNewrenminbiloanstorealsectorpickedup387inDecember25afterdropping121inNovemberHoweveroff-balance-sheetcredit20continuedtoshrinkamidthenewWMPregulationandriskaversiontowards15propertyprojectsMeanwhilecorporatebondfinancingsharplydeclinedas10businesscapexweakenedLocalgovernmentbondfinancingalsodroppedas20192020202120222023localgovernmentsusedupmostoftheirspecialbondquotasinthefirstthreePBOC7DrepoBanks7Drepo1YLPR5YLPRquartersSourceWindCMBIGMNewmortgageconsumercreditandshort-termbusinessloansYoYcontinuedtodeclineashousingsalesconsumptionandbusiness313conditionremainedweakNewmediumtolong-termloanstohouseholds12droppedby476inDecemberafterdecreasing639inNovemberashousingsalesremainedweakMeanwhilenewshort-termloansto211householdswerenegativeasindividualconsumptiondeclinedbefore10resumptionshortlyafterthereopeningShort-termloanstoenterprisesalsoexperiencedMoMdeclinesasbusinessconditionfurtherdeteriorated19Howevernewmediumlong-termloanstoenterprisesjumpedover2008thankstocreditsupporttomanufacturingandinfrastructureinvestment07Chinaislikelytomaintaineasingliquidityandcreditpolicyahead2017201820192020202120222023Chinasgrowthwillremainbelowthepotentialgrowththisyearasoverseas7DShiborLHSM2YoYRHSeconomyslowsdownandtheresumptionofdomesticdemandshouldbeinaSourceWindCMBIGMgradualmannerThereflationpressureafterreopeningshouldbemildforaveragerateChinaThereforeChinaislikelytomaintaineasingliquidityandcreditpolicy65aheadWeexpectthePBOCtocutRRRandLPRsbymoderatemagnitudes60thisyearThecentralbankwillfurthereasemortgagepolicytofirst-homeandsecond-homebuyersCreditconditionformanufacturingandservicesector55shouldbeveryeasingThecentralbankwillencouragebankstorolloverthe50debtofqualifiedpropertydevelopersandlocalgovernmentfinancingvehicles45402016201720182019202020212022LoanCorporateloanMortgageloanSourceWindCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk11Jan2023Figure1GrowthofoutstandingOBSfinancingFigure2GrowthofoutstandingbondfinancingYoYYoY4025302020101501010205304002016201720182019202020212022EntrustedloanTrustloan20182019202020212022CorporatebondGovernmentbondBanksacceptanceSourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMFigure3TotalsocialfinancingFigure4OBSfinancingRmbbnRmbbn7000600600040020050000400020030004002000600100080001000JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec202020212022202020212022SourceMoFCMBIGMSourceMoFCMBIGMFigure5BondfinancingFigure6NewMLtermloanstohouseholdsRmbbnRmbbn20006004001500200100002005004000600JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec202020212022202020212022SourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE211Jan2023Figure7NewshorttermloanstohouseholdsFigure8NewMLtermloanstoenterprisesRmbbnRmbbn6002300400180020013000800200400300600200JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec202020212022202020212022SourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMFigure9NewshorttermloanstoenterprisesFigure10BillfinancingtoenterprisesRmbbnRmbbn100090080060060040030020000200300400JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec202020212022202020212022SourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMFigure11GrowthofcreditmoneysupplyFigure12M1growthM1asofM2YoYYoY17303316253231152030141529131028125271102610525920172014201520162018201920202021202220162017201820192020202120222013OutstandingsocialfinancingRMBloanM1LHSM1asofM2RHSSourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE311Jan2023Figure13PBOCclaimstolargeandSMbanksFigure14TotalsocialfinancingCSI300indexRmbtrnYoYindex717600065500515500044500313400023500111300002500201920142015201620172018202020212022201392000PBOCclaimstolargebanks20162017201820192020202120222023PBOCclaimstoSMbanksTSFoutstandingLHSCSI300indexRHSSourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMFigure15DailydomestictrafficflowFigure16Newmortgagehousingsalesindex7DMAmn7DMAYoY19501601101740601530101320401110900902020202120222023140DailytrafficcongestionindexLHS201720182019202020212022DailysubwaypassengerflowRHSNewmortgageHousingcontractsalesvalueSourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMFigure17GrowthofhousingsalesbycitiesFigure18GrowthoflandsalesYoY2YCAGRfor2021YoY2MMA2MMA1109040903560703050302530201001510103030550600702017201820192020202120222017201820192020202120222023GFAforlandsalesLHSTier1citiesTier2citiesTier3citiesLandpricepremiumtobasepriceRHSSourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE411Jan2023Figure19InfrastructureinvestmentFigure20US-SinointerestspreadsYoYYoYpptUSRMB602537550204013015720101010510065205330401020172018201920202021202256LocalgovernmentlandrevenueLHS20082010201220142016201820202022US-Sino1YT-bondspreadLHSInfrastructureinvestmentRHSUSRMBspotrateRHSSourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMFigure21Sino-USgrowthgapRMBUSchangeFigure22NetforexinflowpptUSbn2010120880156440102004052480061208510160200620082010201220142016201820202022200Sino-USnominalGDPgrowthgapLHS2013201420152016201720182019202020212022RMBUSchangeRHSBanksnetforexpurchaseBanksnetforexreceiptSourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMFigure23MoneymarketfundingcostFigure24Bondmarketrates50745640535304253202152017201820192020202120222023107YT-bond2018201920202021202220237YAAACorporatebondYueBao3MShibor6MNCD7YAACorporatebondSourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE511Jan2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE6
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