研究报告全文：MN9Jan2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdateAIAGroupLtd1299HKPent-updemandstoboostHKgrowthRaiseTPOnJan5theStateCouncilofthePRCofficiallyannouncedtheapprovalonHK-TargetPriceHK11800MainlandborderreopeningfollowedbyadetailedschemearrangedbytheHKPreviousTPHK9100governmentwhichenabled60000-persondailycaptotravelacrossthebordersinceUpDownside3388JanincludingmainlandvisitorsMCVscomingtoHongKongreachingapproxCurrentPriceHK882040averagedailytrafficbacktothepre-COVIDperiodin2019BuoyedbythisChinaInsurancepositivenewswebelieveAIAHongKongwillgainnewbusinessmomentumtotheupsideamidstthrivingmarketsentimentdrivenbythereleaseofMCVspent-upGigiCHENCFAdemandsforUSdollarsavingsandhigh-endhealthprotectionsstartingin2023We85239163739gigichencmbicomhkraiseourVNBgrowthforecastonAIAinFY23EandrolloverTPtoFY24EatHK118ReiterateBUYNikaMAHigher-than-expectedborderreopeningquotaInphaseIoftheborder85239000805nikamacmbicomhkreopeningschemestartingfrom8Janupto50kMCVsarepermittedtoenterHKvialandportsandadditional10kvisitorsareallowedtoenterviaairportferriesStockDataandHK-Zhuhai-MacaoBridgeThedailyentrancequotaisexpectedtoarriveatMktCapHKmn10471986Avg3mthstoHKmn750approx40ofaveragetrafficbacktothepre-COVIDperiodin20191532kper52wHighLowHK91355795dayThestatisticsfromC-tripanonlinetravelagencyshowedthatthenumberTotalIssuedSharesmn118730ofdomesticflightticketbookingsfromMainlandtoHKduringtheChineseNewSourceFactSetYearholidayis18xhighercomparedtothatof2022implyingamuchfaster-than-ShareholdingStructureexpectedresumptionofMCVtrafficinflowstoHKOurchannelcheckalsoBankofNewYorkMellon102suggestedthatHKlifeagentsexpectedtoseestrongpent-updemandsofJPMorganChaseCo87SourceHKExMainlandvisitorstogoforUSsavingsinsuranceandhealthprotectionproductsAIAHKssufficientagentcapacitytocapturestrongMCVbusinessinflowsSharePerformanceOntheagencyfrontthelatestMDRTMillionDollarRoundTablestatisticsAbsoluteRelative1-mth48-30showedthatasofJuly2022AIAHKAIAMacaupreserved72oftotalMDRT3-mth25980agentforcescomparedtothepre-COVIDperioddatedbackto2019AIAHKand6-mth4372AIAMacaujointlyheld3299MDRTagentsrankingasthe2ndlargestMDRTteamsSourceFactSetworldwideinthefollowingofAIAChinateamWebelieveAIAHKwillcapturethe12-mthPricePerformancevaluegrowthgeneratedfromtheincomingMCVcustomersgiventheirsufficientsalescapacityandhigh-qualityserviceprovisionsGiventhisweexpectAIAHKtoachieveoutstandinggrowthrecoveryinVNBsincethestartof2023RaiseTPandrollovertoFY24EbasedonPEVWeraiseAIAHKsVNBforecastofFY23E-FY24Eby5givenanearlyreopeningscheduleandhigher-than-expectedentryquotaWerolloverourTPfromFY23EtoFY24EuptoHK118implyinga22xPEVFY24EwithintheupsideofhistoricalavgplusoneSourceFactSetstandarddeviationThestocknowtradesat17xPEVFY24Ebelow19xhistoricalavgLookingforwardweexpectimprovedVNBmomentumtosustainandcontinuetosupportAIAssharepriceperformancein2023ReiterateBUYAuditorPricewaterhouseCoopersEarningsSummaryYE31DecFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24ERecentReportsNetprofitUSmn577974273418736088181AIAGroupLtd1299HKLong-termEPSReportedUS0506030607growthintactexpect2H22recoverylinkYoYgrowth372855401153198ConsensusEPSUSna06030607VNBshareUS0303030303GroupEVshareUS6062586267PremiumincomeUSmn3332834444365114308350837PBx2122262422PEmbeddedvaluex1918201817Dividendyield1516092024ROE9812061137150SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesBloombergPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk9Jan2023ValuationHistoricalavgPEVandpeerscomparisonFigure1AIAshistoricalavgPEVFY11FY23Figure2AIAshistorical3-yrand5-yravgPEVSourceCompanydataCMBIGMNotesharepriceendedasofmarketSourceCompanydataCMBIGMNotesharepriceendedasofmarketcloseon6Jan2023closeon6Jan2023ValuationcomparisonwithmajorpeersFigure3Pan-AsianlifeinsurersvaluationtradingcompsSourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesNotetradingcompsofPrudential2378HKandPingAn2318HKarebasedonCMBIGMestimateswhereasotherinternationalpeerspersharemultiplesarebasedonBloombergconsensusSharepriceandrelevantFXrateareasofmarketcloseon6Jan2023PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE29Jan2023FinancialSummaryINCOMESTATEMENT2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecUSmnTotalincome472425035947525317395308364658Premiumswrittengross347773578037123393504643354791Premiumsearnednet326113332834444365114308350837Investmentincome1435016707127485105966813487Otheroperatingincome281324333333333333Losses400074307239046278114469254615Selling321283473930055188543425742439Underwritingcommissions428344024597487357506785Otheroperatingexpense275630123402304835974244Non-opeartingincomeexpense840919992103610881147Equityinaffiliatespretax81711000Excplchrgs-others17900000Pretaxincome7048727084683927839210043Incometaxes103014919914609821175Minorityinterest39050505050Netincome597957797427341873608818Netincomeavailabletocommon597957797427341873608818BALANCESHEET2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecUSmnAssetsCashshort-termIinvestments394156194989488953785916Totalfixedincomesecuritiesinvestment182070211216209391205479226026248629Totalequitysecuritiesinvestment503225918271017695977655684212Realestateassets769973617460764084049244Otherinvestments97110691468143915831741Investmentinunconsolidatedsubs615606679747822904Intangibleassets252026342914320535263879Otherassets359943843441956433614498646870Totalassets284132326121339874336356367281401395LiabilitiesshareholdersequityInsurancepolicyliabilities204454235952251283257268276340300861STdebtcurrportionLTdebt182616641588174719212114Long-termdebt575785599588100671057111099Provisionforriskscharges225230194223257295Defferedtaxliabilities621469025982658072387962Otherliabilities1026191461030587721457817084Totalliabilities228737262453278940284658310905339415Totalcommonequity549476320060467512325590961513Commonstockordinarycapital141291415514160141601416014160Capitalsurplus000000Retainedearnings409224470449984521565683362437Equityeeserves10443413677150841508415084Revaluationeeserves11669151708407300030003000OtherappropriatedReserves6982331068106810681068Unappropriatedfreereserves110751106211016110161101611016Totalshareholdersequity549476320060467512325590961513Minorityinterest448468467467467467Totalequity553956366860934516995637661980Totalliabilitiesshareholdersequity284132326121339874336356367281401395PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE39Jan2023PERSHAREDATA2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecDPS126128139081175209EPSReported385371481222479574GroupembeddedvalueshareHK400047184857452748575259VNBshareHK267218230205230264Noofsharesbasic120101209512097120661206612066PROFITABILITY2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecReturnonequityROE1259812061137150ReturnonassetROA231922102123ReturnonlifeembeddedValue12811270487079VNBmarginFYPAPEbasis631530596571567577VALUATION2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecPE262725512420PB030203030303PTangibleBVPS050406080706Divyield141516092024Divpayout327346289365364364SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesNoteThecalculationofnetcashincludesfinancialassetsPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE49Jan2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBISwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE5