>> 招银国际-China Technology – Limited surprise on Apple order cut; Suggest to focus on non-smartphone names-230105
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研究报告全文：5Jan2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchSectorUpdateOUTPERFORMChinaTechnologyMaintainLimitedsurpriseonAppleordercutSuggesttofocusonnon-smartphonenamesApplesupplychainwasunderpressureLuxshareBYDESunnyOpticalCowellChinaTechnologySectoryesterdayfollowingreportofordercutsforAirPodsWatchandMacBooksin1Q23EduetoasofterconsumerbackdropWhilewearenotsurprisedbyorderAlexNGcorrectionafterasoftholidayseasoninDecwebelieveApplesupplychainwill85239000881remainvolatileinneartermamidrisinguncertaintieson1Q23outlookandprofitalexngcmbicomhktakingpressureafter30rallysinceNovWerecommendtostayonthesidelinesuntilmorevisibilityonApplesearningson26JanWemaintainHOLDLilyYANGPhDonBYDESunnyOpticalforhighsmartphoneexposureandfairvaluationand85239163716BUYonFITHonTengBOEVxforexpandingexposuretoautocomponentslilyyangcmbicomhkNotsurprisingonordercutsforAirPodsWatchandMacbooksGivenseasonalweaknessin1Q23andsofter-than-expectedholidayseasonsinDecwearenotsurprisedaboutcomponentordercutsalongtechsupplychainInparticularwhileAndroidsupplychainhasalreadyactivelyengagedindestockingprocesssince3Q22webelieveinventorycorrectionforApplesupplychainwillacceleratein1Q23EgivenweakereconomicoutlookinUSEUmarketConservative1H23EoutlookonconsumertechnamesWebelieverecentsectorrallysinceNovhaspricedindemandrecoveryofconsumertechpostChinareopeningHoweverweremaincautiousonthedownsideriskofpotentialrecessioninUSEUin1H23Ewhichwillhavenegativeimpacttomostsmartphone-relatedstocksgiventheirhighsalesexposuretooverseasclientsAppleSamsungandoverseasmarketUSEUIndiaInadditionwebelieveongoinggeopoliticaltensionsCOVID-19andsupplychaindecouplingwillcontinuetoaccelerateApplesdiversificationofproductionbasebutweakmacrooutlookwillslowdownthepaceofrelocationgivenmoreconservativecapexinvestmentStayselectiveamidmacroweaknessRecommendtofocusonnameswithnon-smartphoneexposureWestayselectiveontechstocksamidmacrodemandpressureandongoinginventorycorrectionForsmartphonewedonotexpectdemandtorecoveruntil2Q23Eandwearemorepositiveonsub-sectorssuchasautomotivedrivenbyEVARVRanddatacomOverallwecouldseebetterentrypointinlate1Q23EwithsupplychaincuttingaggressivelyandstocksmovingaheadoffundamentalsWemaintainHOLDonBYDEandSunnyOpticalforhighsmartphoneexposureandfairvaluationandBUYonFITHonTengBOEVxforexpandingautoexposureValuationTableRelatedReportsMktCapPriceTPUpDownPExPBxROE1ImplicationsofglobalSPENameTickerRatingUSmnLCLC-sideFY22EFY23EFY22EFY22Eleaders3Q22resultsonsemiLuxshare002475CHBUY2927528375238420317738179industryoutlook26Oct2022linkFITHonTeng6088HKBUY1912205184-111029007722ImplicationsofUSsnewchipBOEVx710HKBUY150714882607519514318147exportrestrictionstoChina10AACTech2018HKHOLD2771180154-142441520935Oct2022linkSunnyOptical2382HKHOLD12095862102318286194341183ChinaAI-USmaybroadenAIBYDE285HKHOLD70762455204-172681632069chipsexportrestrictions-14Sep2022linkSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk5Jan2023Figure1GlobalsmartphoneshipmentforecastFigure2GlobalVRARmarketshipmentforecastSourceIDCCMBIGMestimatesSourceIDCCMBIGMestimatesFigure1HonhaiandLuxshareproductionlinesFigure2LocationofAppleproductionlines2021SupplierLocation201520162017201820202021400380FoxconnBrazil121112350China1920242987300259260India111250200Taiwan211115012896101US12121006574734955372327Vietnam111501889110LuxshareChina545745ChinaJapanUSTaiwanVietnamIndiaVietnam112201820202021SourceDigitimesCMBIGMSourceCounterpointDigitimesCMBIGMFigure5Supplychainmappingandsalesmixexposure2022HuaweiOtherCNCompanyTickerAppleSamsungOthersMajorProductsHonorbrandsAACTech2018HK45525205AcousticshapticsopticscasingFITHonTeng6088HK40357ConnectorwirelesschargingaccessoriesSunnyOptical2382HK210205810CameramodulehandsetlenssetsautolensmoduleBYDE285HK405103015MetalglassplasticscasingODMOEMe-cigaretteTongda698HK205103525MetalplasticcasingwaterproofQ-Tech1478HK58515CammodulelensfingerprintmodulesautocammoduleTKGroup2283HK1090PlasticmoldingplasticprecisionTruly732HK36235CameramodulesfingerprintdisplaymodulesCowell1415HK9055CameraModuleLuxshare002475CN6010327WirelessiPhoneAirPodsWatchOEMacousticshapticsGoertek002241CN455101525AcousticsAirPodsWatchARVRWearablesSunway300136CH455103010AntennawirelesschargingconnectorRFLensTech300433CN505102015GlassmetalcasingEMSSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE25Jan2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE3
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