研究报告全文：FixedIncomeCreditCommentary3Jan2023CMBICreditCommentaryFixedIncomeDailyMarketUpdate固定收益部市场日报Marketsentimentwasupbeatthismorningwithbalancedtwo-wayflowsWesawbuyinginterestsonhighgradeSOEsandLGFVbondsdue2024-26GlennKoCFA高志和fromrealmoneyaccountsforyear-beginningdeployment85236576235glennkocmbicomhkChinaEconomyGoingthroughthedarknessbeforedawnCMBIexpectstheGDPgrowthtoreboundfrom27in2022to51in2023SeebelowforcommentsfromoureconomicresearchCyrenaNgCPA吳蒨瑩85239000801FWDINSFWDLimitednottoexercisethecalloptionofitsUSD200mncyrenangcmbicomhkFWDINS55PERPonthefirstcalldayof1Feb23Theperpswerestableandtradedat85thismorningTradingdeskcomments交易台市场观点JerryWang王世超85237618919WiththeFedalreadysignallinganendtoratehikescomingmarketexpectsjerrywangcmbicomhkmorere-steepeningonUSTcurvesin2023WithmarketspotlightonanewBOJchiefthisyearspeculationonchangestomonetarypolicyarelikelytobefrontandcenterintheweeksaheadTheECBhascommitteditselftocontinue50bpsratehikeswhiletheFedisexpectedtoslowLastFridayChinaIGspacestoodfirmamidlimitedtradingflowsacrossallsectorsonthelasttradingdayof2022FinancialsspacewasmixedwithAMCsunderperformedwhilebankT2slikeCCBswererobustwiththeRMsupportHRINTHsGRWALLsclosed6-8bpswideronthedayElsewhereselectivenameslikeCHOHIN55PerpCHINEV38Perpweremarked1-2ptslowerwithlessliquidflowsTMTsslightlyoutperformedwithbetanamestightened3-5bpsTENCNTBIDU10-yearpaperstightened12-18bpsandBABAcurvewere4-8bpstighterIGpropertieswererelativelystableChinaHYspacewasquietChinasManufacturingPMIfelltoweaker-than-expected47inDecemberindicatingacontractioninactivityInpropertiesSINOCE26-29sweretradedup25-45ptstocloseatmid-50sSINOCE6876Perpwasmarked75ptshighertomid-30sSino-OceanGroupissuedRMB1303bnUSD187mnREITsproductwithacouponrateof5SINOCEshavebeenoutperforminglatelyafterSino-OceanGroupobtainedatotaltentativecreditlinesofRMB50bnfromICBCandalsoannouncedtosellitsentire50stakeintheTaikooLiChengdutoprojectpartnerSwirePropertiesforRMB555bnearlieron15DecCOGARD24-25swereup1-3ptsafteritissuedRMB1bn43domesticbondswith3-yeartermguaranteedbyCBICCHINSC24sand26soutperformedagainbypoppingup2535ptsrespectivelyamidnewsthatChinaSCESino-Oceanandother10propertynamesenteredintostrategiccooperationagreementswithMingShengBankCHJMAOsFUTLANsFTLNHDswereunchangedto1pthigherGRNLGRsKWGPROsoutperformedbypoppingup1-2ptsontwo-wayflowsbetweenChineseaccountsandHFsGRNLHKwastradedup7ptsunderPBdemandInindustrialspaceFOSUNIsANTOILsmovedup05-1ptInMacaugamingPLEASEREADTHEAUTHORCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGECMBIFixedIncomefiscmbicomhk13Jan2023spaceMGMCHIsSTCITYsWYNMACswereslightlyup1ptInIndiaHYsAZUPOEGRNLENRPVINcurveswereunchangedto1pthigherVEDLNsprinted05ptlowerIndonesiaHYsweremorequietINDYIJLPKRIJ25swereunderlightbettersellingIntheLGFVSOEPerpAT1spacemarketwasmixedLGFVswererathermutedQualitynameslikeSHGUOHBEIPROedged05pthigherWeakernameswereunchangedthoughGSHIAVwasalsotradedup05ptElsewherewesawtwowayflowsonXXKGDCCQLGSTInSOEPerpspaceHAOHUAwereunderbettersellingBenchmarksCHGRIDCNOOCwidened4-6bpsAT1benchmarkslikeBCHINAICBCAStightened2-3bpsunderbetterbuyingflowsOverallshorttocallAT1swerestillfavoredbysomeAMaccountswithcashparkingdemandsremainedrobustLastTradingDaysTopMoversTopPerformersPriceChangeTopUnderperformersPriceChangeGRNLHK1021PERP61570CHOHIN512PERP893-21CHOHIN57PERP95853GRNLGR56111324446-17SINOCE43408052955640HRINTH414PERP752-16SINOCE31405052656739CHINEV38PERP971-14CHINSC73804092449736JD418011450733-14MacroNewsRecap宏观新闻回顾MacroUSstockmarketsslightlydownonlasttradingdayof2022theSP-025Dow-022andNasdaq-011wereallweakin2022withannualdecreasesof-1944-878and-331respectivelyChinaNBSpublishedDec22PMIas470lowered10thanlastmonthandwasbelow50forthreeconsecutivemonthsTheUStreasuryyieldsoveralledgeduponlastFridayand251030yieldsreached441399388397respectivelyDeskanalystcomments分析员市场观点ChinaEconomyGoingthroughthedarknessbeforedawnChinasPMIsharplydeclinedinDecembertothelowestsinceFebruary2020asthevirusoutbreakafterreopeningpromptedpeopletostayhomeandbusinessestocloseOutputnewordersandemploymentallcontractedwhilethedeliverytimesofsuppliersincreasedduetotemporarysupplydisruptionsWebelieveChinaisgoingthroughthedarknessbeforedawnafterreopeningasthepandemicmayhavepeakedinmostcitiesrecentlyPopulationmobilityandoutdooractivitiesshouldgraduallyimprovefromJanuarypointingtothefirstwaveofresumptioninsomeconsumergoodsandservicesaheadChinasreflationpressureafterreopeningshouldbemoderateasdomesticdemandresumptionisgradualoverseasdemandsoftensandthepandemichaslimitedimpactonthelaborparticipationChinawillmaintaineasingmonetarypolicyandproactivefiscalpolicyin2023MeanwhilenewleaderswilltakeeffortstostabilizepropertymarketandboostbusinessconfidenceWeexpecttheGDPgrowthtoreboundfrom27in2022to51in2023PMIslumpedtothelowestsinceFebruary2020PMIinmanufacturingandservicerespectivelydroppedfrom48and451inNovemberto47and394inDecemberthelowestsinceFebruary2020Theindexesinretailtraderoadtransportationaccommodationcateringandinhabitantservicedroppedtobelow35inDecemberasthosesectorsarequitesensitivetopopulationmobilityPMIinfoodandmedicineremainedabove50becauseofstabledemandinthosestaplesectorsPMIinconstructionslowedfrom554inNovemberto544inDecemberyetstillabove50thankstostronggrowthofinfrastructureinvestmentPMIinairtransportationreboundedtoabove60inDecemberasthenumberofflightsincreasednoticeablyafter23Jan2023reopeningPMIintelecomserviceinternetserviceandfinancialservicealsoremainedabove50asdemandinthosesectorswasrelativelystableLookingforwardPMIinmostservicesectorswillgraduallyreboundalongwiththeimprovementofpopulationmobilityandconfidenceOverseasanddomesticdemanddeterioratedNeworderindexsignificantlydroppedfrom464inNovemberto439inDecemberBothoverseasdemandanddomesticconsumptiondeterioratedwithdownsidepressureonmostmanufacturingindustriesTheexportorderindexandimportindexrespectivelydecreasedfrom467and471inNovemberto442and437inDecemberThesharpdeclineofpopulationmobilityalsocooleddownserviceactivityNeworderindexinserviceslumpedfrom414inNovemberto374inDecemberHoweverneworderindexinconstructionandsteelproductrosefrom469and345inNovemberto488and389inDecemberindicatinglessdownsidepressureinthosesectorsMaterialcostreboundedwithtemporarysupplydisruptionsMaterialcostindexinmanufacturingconstructionreached516and512inDecemberupfrom507and487inNovemberSteelproductsectorsawasignificantriseofmaterialcostindexfrom38inNovemberto598inDecemberTheincreaseofmaterialcostsmaybeduetotwocausesFirstChinasreopeningboostedthesentimentanddemandprospectincommoditymarketSecondthevirusoutbreakafterreopeningcausedtemporarysupplydisruptionsassomeworkershadtostayathomeafterbeinginfectedHoweverwebelieveChinasreflationpressureafterreopeningshouldbemoderateForonethingtheresumptionofdomesticdemandespeciallyinhousinganddurablesshouldbegradualwithoutoverheatingriskOverseasdemandshouldsignificantlydeclineastherecessioniscomingForanotherthingthepandemichasverylimitedimpactonthelaborparticipationinChinaduetohighunemploymentpressureTheemploymentindexinmanufacturingandservicesignificantlydroppedfrom474and452inNovemberto448and424inDecemberthelowestsinceFebruary2020Wenotetheex-factorypriceindexesinbothmanufacturingandserviceremainedweakinDecemberWeexpectChinasCPItoincrease22in2023afterrising2in2022ThePPIisexpectedtodrop05in2023afterincreasing43in2022Chinaeconomyisinagradualresumptionin2023-2024ChinaeconomyisbracingforagradualresumptionwhileoverseaseconomyismovingfromstagflationintoarecessionChinasnewleadersaretryingtoreopeneconomystabilizepropertymarketandrestoremarketconfidenceassoonaspossiblewithapro-businessstanceChinasmonetarypolicyremainsaccommodativewithampleliquiditysupplyandeasingcreditpolicyThePBOCmayfurthercutRRRLPRsfor1-2timesUSRMBratesmaydeclinefrom69atend-2022to665atend-2023Fiscalpolicywillbemoreproactivewithbroaddeficitratioupfrom58in2022to62in2023andpolicybanksspecialloansSOEsdebtcontinuetoexpandWeexpectChinasGDPgrowthwouldrisefrom27in2022to51in2023HealthcaretransportationcateringtravelhotelrecreationservicesshouldseearapidrecoverywhiledurableshousingmarketmayhaveagradualresumptionClickhereforfullreport33Jan2023OffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPricedIssueRatingIssuerGuarantorSizeUSDmnTenorCouponYieldMSFNoOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPricedTodayOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPipelineIssueRatingIssuerGuarantorCurrencySizeUSDmnTenorPricingMSFCommonwealthBankofUSD-22yrT90SOFRAa3AA-AAustraliaNYExport-ImportBankKoreaUSD-3510yr----HongKongSARUSD----AAAA-POSCOUSD-3510yr--SumitomoMitsuiFinancialT150180USD-35710yrA1A-GroupInc205220NewsandmarketcolorRegardingonshoreprimaryissuancestherewere53creditbondsissuedlastFridaywithanamountofRMB31bnInDec221427creditbondswereissuedwithatotalamountofRMB1309bnraisedrepresentinga302yoydecreaseMacaugamingrevenueforDec22drops563yoytoMOP348bntotalgamingrevenueforFY22down514yoytoMOP422bnAZUPOEAzurefilesunauditedannualresultsforAzurePowerSolarEnergyAzurePowerEnergyrestrictedgroupentitiesCAPGChinaAoyuansignscontractualarrangementstoextendmaturityofexistingonshorefinancingarrangementsforoverRMB27bninprincipalamountintalksforproposedstandstillarrangementinrespectofmaterialoffshoreindebtednessCENCHIMediareportedCentralChinaremittedfundstocuremissedinterestpaymentonitsUSD300mn775bonddueMay24withingraceperiodCHFOTNChinaFortuneLandDevelopmentshareholdersapproveproposalondebtrestructuringviadebt-to-equityswapwithstakesinsubsidiariesThecompanysunitsignedsupplementaryagreementtosellsubsidiaryforRMB650mnFWDINSFWDLimitednottoexercisecalloptionofitsUSD200mnFWDINS55PERPonthefirstcalldayof1Feb23HTSCHuataiSecuritiesproposedtoraiseuptoRMB28bnviarightsissue43Jan2023NANJBKBankofNanjingreceivedCBIRCapprovaloveracquisitionof10stakeinNanjingBNPConsumerFinancefromSuningRPVINRenewPowerintalkswithTorrenttosell11GWprojectsatanenterprisevalueofaboutUSD12bnSKYFAMSkyfameRealtytosell7373stakeinholdingcompanyofChongqingSkyfameLinxifuprojecttoDatangGroupHoldingsforaroundRMB5421mnSUNKWPSunkwanPropertieshasnotpaidoutstandingprincipalofUSD1602mninterestonSUNKWP135010223ThecompanytosellHangzhoupropertydevelopmentprojectforRMB3345mnTPHLTimesChinaexpectstosuspendpaymentunderoffshoredebtsengagesCICCSidleyAustintopursueholisticmanagementofoffshoredebtsYESTARYestarHealthcaredidnottoredeemanyoftheUSD19786mnnotesYESTAR95123026ThecompanytosellIVDproductsdistributionbusinessunitsforRMB57475mnYLLGSPYanlordannouncedthatitsunithasrepurchasedandcancelledanaggregateprincipalamountofUSD196mnofitsUSD350mnYLLGSP675042323ZHPRHKZhenropropertysignedstrategiccooperationagreementwithNingboBankCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedFixedIncomeDepartmentTel8523761886785236576291fiscmbicomhkCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankAuthorCertificationTheauthorwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheauthorcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatauthorinthisreportBesidestheauthorconfirmsthatneithertheauthornorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMandoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompanies53Jan2023inthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestDisclaimerForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereport6