>> 招银国际-China Internet – November online game market recap-221229
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研究报告全文：29Dec2022CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchSectorUpdateOUTPERFORMChinaInternetMaintainNovemberonlinegamemarketrecapChinaonlinegamemarketrevenuedeclined192YoYand30QoQtoChinaInternetSectorRMB192bninNov2022Oct-18YoY3Q22-19YoYaccordingtoCNGTheonlinegamesectorperformanceremainedweakinNovemberprimarilySaiyiHECFAduetolackofnewgametitlesandhighbaseeffect11M22onlinegame85239161739revenuedeclined95YoYtoRMB246bnwhichislargelyinlinewithourhesaiyicmbicomhkforecastWeexpecttheonlinegamemarketrevenuewillreturntopositiveYoYgrowthby2Q23Easthegamelicenseapprovalresumesandhigh-baseeffectWentaoLUwearsoffbythenWefavourleadingonlinegamesplayerssuchasTencentandluwentaocmbicomhkNetEaseastheycouldleveragestrongoperationanddevelopmentcapabilitytoYeTAOsolidifyleadershipinbothdomesticandoverseasmarketsTheresumptionoffranktaocmbicomhkgameslicenseapprovalatyearendhelptoboostsectorsentimentSupplyconstraintcontinuedtoweighonmobilegamesectorChinasRelatedReportsmobilegamemarketrevenuegrowthdroppedby257YoYtoRMB135bn1ChinaInternet-QualitygrowthinNov2022Oct2022-27YoYaccordingtoCNGThelackofqualityandfurtherdigitizationpenetrationprovidegrowthsupport19DecnewcontentremainsasthekeyconstraintforsectorgrowthinourviewSeveralnewgameslaunchedinNovemberdeliveredsoftmonetization2ChinaInternet-TheshoehasperformancenoneofwhichgeneratedRMB200mnmonthlygrossingindroppedPCAOBannouncedthefirstmonthaftertheirlaunchHoweverthenormalisationofdomesticunobstructedinspectionaccessgameapprovalandtheresumptionofimportedgamelicenseapprovalin16DecDec2022couldbeakeypositiveforthesectorrecoveryForthePCgame3BilibiliBILIUS-Focusonmoremarkettotalrevenuewasup63YoYtoRMB48bninNov2022mainlysustainablegrowth30NovdrivenbythesolidgrowthofthelegacytitlesincludingTencentsLeagueofLegendsandNetEasesFantasyWestwardJourney4PinduoduoPDDUS-StrongrevenueandearningsImportedgameslicenseapprovalresumedImportedgamelicensegrowth29Novapprovalresumedand44importedgameswereapprovedon28Dec2022afteran18-monthwaitindicatingfurthernormalisationofgamelicense5Meituan3690HKLong-termdevelopmentintactdespiteshort-approvalAtthesametime84domesticgameswerealsoapprovedinDectermheadwind28Nov2022upfrom707369inNovSepAug2022InthisbatchofgamesapprovedTencentandNetEaseeachhad6and3gamesapprovedincludingTencents6BaiduBIDUUS-Earningsbeathighly-anticipatedPCgameVALORANTLaunchedinJune2020VALORANTonstringentcostcontrol23Novwasrankedthe6thPCgamegloballyacrossallgenresbyMAUinMar20227JDJDUS-Stronger-than-Overseasgamingmarketstillexperiencingnear-termsoftnessexpectedmarginexpansion19OverseasrevenuefromChinasself-developedgamesdeclinedby8NovYoYbutflatQoQtoUS136bninNov2022accordingtoCNGmainly8WeiboWBUS-Ongoingdueto1thenormalisationofongoingusertimespendpost-COVIDinmoderaterecovery18Novoverseasmarkets2macroconcernsweighedonhighARPUgames3slowingnewgameslaunchesChinagamesdeveloperssuchasTencent9AlibabaBABAUSEarningsbackongrowthtrack18NovandNetEasecontinuedtostrengthentheirgamedevelopmentandpublicationcapabilityintheinternationalmarketsinordertocapturethe10NetEaseNTESUSPreparinglong-termopportunitiesTencentslicensedgameGODDESSOFfornextstrongproductcycle18NovVICTORYNIKKEachievedaglobalsuccessandhasgeneratedoverUS100mnglobalrevenueinonemonthsinceitslaunchon4Novranked11Tencent700HKReturntothetop5mobilegamesbyglobalgrossinginNovemberperSensorTowerearningsgrowthtrack17NovTencentandNetEasecontinuedtosolidifyleadershipWeforecastTencents1domesticgamerevenuetodropby7YoYin4Q22mainlyduetolackofnewtitleslaunchedin2H222internationalgamerevenuetodeclineby9YoYprimarilyattributabletothehighbasein4Q21andsoftperformanceofPUBGMobileWeforecastNetEaseonlinegamerevenuegrowthwillslowto4YoYin4Q22E3Q229YoYmainlyduetotheYoYdeclineinrevenuefromHarryPotterMagicAwakenedDespitethesectordownturnweexpectbothcompaniestotakemarketshareasuserspendingwasfurtherconcentratedtoqualitylegacygamesWeforecastTencentNetEasegamesrevenuegrowthof83in2023EPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk29Dec2022DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMoritsaffiliateshaveinvestmentbankingrelationshipwiththeissuerscoveredinthisreportinpreceding12monthsCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBISwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE2
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