研究报告全文：MN16Dec2022CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdateTripcomTCOMUSBusinessrecoveryhasgreatervisibilityTargetPriceUS4000TripcomGroupTCOMannounced15Dec3Q22resultsnetrevenuewasPreviousTPUS2970RMB69bnup290YoY56aheadofourBloombergconsensusestimatesUpDownside162andwas66ofthe3Q19levelNon-GAAPnetincomewasRMB10bnbetterCurrentPriceUS3441thanourforecastconsensusestimateatRMB742830mnowningtobetter-than-expectedrevenuerecoveryindomesticmarketAlthoughpandemicChinaInternetresurgencebroughtdisruptiontoTCOMsbusinessrecoveryin4Q22overallSaiyiHECFAbusinessrecoveryfrom2023onwardhasgreatervisibilityaspandemic85239161739preventionpolicyhasbeenrelaxingWerolloverourvaluationto2023EwithahesaiyicmbicomhknewDCF-basedtargetpriceofUS400wasUS297translatinginto3522x2324EPEandweseesupportfrom8121-24Enon-GAAPnetincomeCAGRYeTAOfranktaocmbicomhkFuturecatalystscouldcomefrom1relaxationofin-boundquarantinepolicywhichlikelypropelsrecoveryofoutboundtravelthataccountsforc25ofWentaoLUTCOMspre-COVIDrevenuegeneration2stronger-than-expecteddomesticluwentaocmbicomhklong-haultravelrecoveryaidedbyreleaseofpent-updemandMaintainBUYStockDataInternationalbusinessrevenuerecoveryontrackManagementnotedMktCapUSmn211285thattherevenuecontributionfrominternationalbusinesswas15-20inAvg3mthstoUSmn2723Q22andoverallrecoveryofinternationalbusinessisontrackOverallair-52wHighLowUS33701675ticketingontheglobalplatformincreasedover100YoYin3Q22andhasTotalIssuedSharesmn6341SourceFactSetrecoveredto80-90of2019levelIn3Q22hotelbookingsinTCOMsglobalplatformgrewby45versus3Q19anddomestichotelbookingsinShareholdingStructurenon-Chinamarketsincreasedby300LeveragingitsdeepindustryBaiduEntities108MorganStanley58resourcesandstrongoperationalknowhowTCOMiswellpositionedforSourceHKExinternationalbusinessexpansionespeciallyintheAPACmarketSharePerformanceRecoveryofdomesticbusinesshashighervisibilityIn3Q22TCOMsAbsoluteRelativerevenuefromtransportation-ticketingserviceswasRMB26bnup44YoY1-mth202196andreached70ofthe3Q19levelRevenuefromaccommodation3-mth285337reservationbusinesswasRMB29bndown32YoYandwas71ofthe6-mth5024453Q19levelAlthoughbusinessrecoveryindomesticmarketcouldbeSourceFactSetimpactedbypandemicresurgencein4Q22-1Q23weexpectTCOMs12-mthPricePerformancedomesticbusinesstodeliverconstantsequentialrecoveryfrom2Q23onwardsaidedbythereleaseofpent-updemandWeexpectTCOMsdomesticbusinesstoachievefullrecoveryin2023comparedwiththatin2019andestimateTCOMstotalrevenuetorecoverto86of2019levelin20232022E56withtherecoveryinoutboundtravelandrobustgrowthofinternationalbusinessLong-termmarginexpansiontrendintactTCOMsnon-GAAPOPMforSourceFactSet3Q22was17523ppbetterthanourforecastmainlyonbeatofGPMaidedbybetter-than-expectedunleashofoperatingleveragewhichwasdrivenbybetter-than-expectedrevenuegenerationTCOMslong-termOPMexpansionremainsontrackinourviewdrivenbyincreaseinrevenuecontributionfromhigh-marginoutboundtravelbusinessandmarginimprovementofpureinternationalbusinessWeforecastnon-GAAPOPMtorecoverfrom13in2021to53164222for222324E2019189EarningsSummaryYE31DecFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenueRMBmn1832720029199213069638756YoYgrowth4879305541263NetprofitRMBmn320705500115113172959041AdjustednetprofitRMBmn91301356065604984080356AdjNPconsensusRMBmn111673537700PBx1212131312ROE3105102850SourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk16Dec2022Figure1TCOMquarterlyfinancialresultsRMBbn3Q204Q201Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q223Q22Totalrevenue555041595347414069YoYgrowth-479-404-132865-22-5700-319290Accommodationreservation252216252219151429YoYgrowth-398-244368958-115-145-82-447324Transportationticketing191715211815171826YoYgrowth-488-510-371797-46-108104-147444Packagedtour030302040402010104YoYgrowth-801-673-6771823202-324-266-668-13Corporatetravel030303040304020204YoYgrowth-158-17710001407199195-119-46295Others050506060607070606YoYgrowth-313-38011931827954883-8113Grossprofit444131474136303056Operatingprofit0800-0803-02-07-04-0209Non-GAAPnetprofit1411-0207050300-0210GPM811816748792771761740756815OPM145-03-19255-46-150-87-42124AdjustedNPM256214-501249866-09-51150SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesRevisionofforecastandvaluationKeychangesinourforecastaresetoutbelow1Wecut2022Erevenueforecastby49toaccountforstringent-than-expectedpandemicpreventionpolicyinthefirsthalfof4Q22andpandemicresurgenceimpactinthesecondhalfwhichimpactedpeoplestravelwillingnessbutwelift20232024Erevenueforecastby3542ongreatervisibilityofbusinessrecoveryaspandemicpreventionpolicyhasbeenrelaxingwhichwebelievecouldsupportarecoveryonlong-haultravelandoutboundtravelin2023afterpandemicresurgenceimpactwanes2Wecutnon-GAAP2022Enon-GAAPnetincomeforecasttoRMB07bnin2022Edrivenbythecutinrevenueforecastbutwelift20232024Enon-GAAPnetincomeforecastby2058ontheliftofrevenueforecastWearealsoexpectingslightlybetteroperatingmarginin2024EdrivenbyTCOMscontinuouslyenhancedcontentecosystemwhichwebelievecouldhelpoptimizesalesandmarketingexpensetorevenueratiooverthelong-termFigure2TCOMforecastrevisionCurrentPreviousChangeRMBbn2022E2023E2024E2022E2023E2024E2022E2023E2024ERevenue199307388210297372-493542GrossProfit153239307162234297-542134OperatingProfit023265033361-1534-2255Non-GAAPnetprofit075080124976-4642058GrossMargin770779792774790799-03ppt-10ppt-06pptOperatingMargin-0910516716111165-25ppt-06ppt02pptNon-GAAPnetmargin3316220758165204-25ppt-02ppt03pptSourceCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE216Dec2022Figure3CMBIGMestimatesvsconsensusCurrentConsensusDiffRMBbn2022E2023E2024E2022E2023E2024E2022E2023E2024ERevenue199307388198296378073726GrossProfit153239307152231296073537Non-GAAPnetprofit075080117477-412-32244GrossMargin77077979277078078400ppt-01ppt08pptNon-GAAPnetmargin3316220756248204-23ppt-86ppt04pptSourceBloombergCMBIGMestimatesDCFbasedtargetpriceofUS400Werollovervaluationwindowto2023withanewDCF-basedtargetpriceofUS400WACCof105andterminalgrowthof20bothunchangedOurtargetpricetranslatesinto352x2023EPEand218x2024EPEnon-GAAPOurpreviousDCF-basedtargetpriceofUS297translatesinto267x2023EPEnon-GAAPThe218x2024EPEimpliedbyourtargetpriceislargelyinlinewiththecurrentindustryaveragevaluationPEmultipleof214xdemonstratedinFig5andweseesupportfrom8121-24Enon-GAAPnetincomeCAGRTCOMisoneofthekeybeneficiariesofconsumptionrecoveryinpostpandemicerainourviewandfuturecatalystsonstockpricecouldcomefrom1relaxationofin-boundquarantinepolicywhichlikelypropelsrecoveryofoutboundtravelthataccountsforc25ofTCOMspre-COVIDrevenuegeneration2stronger-than-expecteddomesticlong-haultravelrecoveryaidedbyreleaseofpent-updemandFigure4TCOMDCFvaluationWACCof105terminalgrowthof20RMBbn2023E2024E2025E2026E2027E2028E2029E2030E2031E2032ETotalrevenue307388442497550600642678707730NPVofFCF797Discountedterminalvalue764Totalequityvaluation1755Noofsharesdilutedmn634ValuationpershareUSD400NoteweUSDRMBexchangerateof16925SourceCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE316Dec2022Figure5InternetvaluationcompstablePriceMktCapLCUSmnPExPSxCompanyTicker2022E2023E2024E2022E2023E2024EPlatformAlibabaBABAUS90124068712010393191716Tencent700HK2960391708235196168494440BaiduBIDUUS113841197141126111232119Meituan3690HK1680140712na840361453528JDcomJDUS58691472253224175060505Average187298182282521E-commerceandlocallifeservicesAlibabaBABAUS90124068712010393191716JDcomJDUS58691472253224175060505PinduoduoPDDUS863113807280248205614941Meituan3690HK1680140712na840361453528VIPShopVIPSUS1208092939085050505Average186301184272219GamesTencent700HK2960391708235196168494440NetEaseNTESUS70947933147144131343229Kingsoft3888HK2544380NA510306403330XDInc2400HK2011288NANA219272016Average191284206383229SocialentertainmentBilibili1024HK60038028nana298282421TMEBILIUS1989834nanana312622CloudMusicTMEUS7413643217199177343230ChinaLit9899HK7452093nana318161311Bilibili772HK2723816202167147332927Average210183235282522AdvertisingBaiduBIDUUS113841197141126111232119WeiboWBUS1644362888375232321Average11510593232220OnlinehealthcareAliHealth241HK7313718NANANA373125JDHealth6618HK71530669NANA709493628PAHealth1833HK2303611nanaNA373227AverageNANA709413327Overallaverage223266214342824Note1dataasat15Decembermarketclose2AlibabaisusingFY23-25EforecastMarchyear-endSourceBloombergCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE416Dec2022FinancialSummaryINCOMESTATEMENT2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecRMBmnRevenue357161832720029199213069638756Costofgoodssold737240314598455867488017Others50116172527Grossprofit282941428515425153462392430712Operatingexpenses232541570816836155252070324244SGAexpense125848041784469661104213013RDexpense10670766789928559966111231Operatingprofit50401423141117932206468Interestincome209421872132199020542084Interestexpense167717161565147814271478Otherincomeexpense363027337373000Pre-taxprofit9087122547139738477074Incometax17423552704737691415Others3471689963760150Minorityinterest576295959595Netprofit70553207550115131735904Adjustednetprofit6527913135665649848036BALANCESHEET2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecRMBmnCurrentassets6795558011661087145386863102927Cashequivalents199231809619818285403857250108Restrictedcash182413191378139421492713Accountreceivables766141194649478161397751Prepayment127107855903271711043712789Othercurrentassets258372662231231295662956629566Non-currentassets132214129238125751120652123007122977PPE613557805534552955695755InvestmentinJVsassos512784794344961408374297442631Intangibles131731325612960119281185611785Goodwill583085935359353593535935359353Othernon-currentassets332029062943300532543453Totalassets200169187249191859192104209869225904Currentliabilities691825836966218663827751984522Short-termborrowings305163366539866398663986639866Accountpayables12294450660196791978411304Taxpayable144912171065118315392122Othercurrentliabilities244451850318868181322579030669Accruedexpenses478478400410540561Non-currentliabilities241422731315185150181649717326Long-termborrowings195372271811093110931109311093Obligationsunderfinanceleases749618400400400400Othernon-currentliabilities385639773692352550045833Totalliabilities9332485682814038139994015101849Sharecapital666666Capitalsurplus836148396093829952649727599607Retainedearnings228031947018823176372077526644Otherreserves298130822981298129812981Totalshareholdersequity103442100354109677109926115075123276Minorityinterest34031213779779779779Totalequityandliabilities200169187249191859192104209869225904PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE516Dec2022CASHFLOW2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecRMBmnOperatingProfitbeforetaxation8740291437577338477224Depreciationamortization109612171021836907991Changeinworkingcapital2826934177189265133039Others2785480816527611041716Netcashfromoperations73333823247527171230811970InvestingCapitalexpenditure8235325705678741103Acquisitionofsubsidiariesinvestments82328613585000Others7674287000Netcashfrominvesting2413382141485678741103FinancingNetborrowings2067182095615000Proceedsfromshareissues007984000Others1132312184968065896491233Netcashfromfinancing92566025391965896491233NetchangeincashCashatthebeginningoftheyear257742174719415211962993440721Exchangedifference309713465000Others43361619224687381078612100Cashattheendoftheyear217471941521196299344072152821GROWTH2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecRevenue1484879305541263Grossprofit1484958005559284Operatingprofit935nananana1008Netprofit5344nananana861Adjnetprofit191nana5166597612PROFITABILITY2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecGrossprofitmargin792779770770779792Operatingmargin141787009105167Adjnetprofitmargin183506833162207ReturnonequityROE743105102850GEARINGLIQUIDITYACTIVITIES2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecCurrentratiox101010111112VALUATION2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecPE199nanana462248PB131212131312PCFPS239na709682128135SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesNoteThecalculationofnetcashincludesfinancialassetsPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE616Dec2022DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMoritsaffiliateshaveinvestmentbankingrelationshipwiththeissuerscoveredinthisreportinpreceding12monthsCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBISwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE7