>> 招银国际-China Internet – November online retail sales recap-221216
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研究报告全文：16December2022CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchSectorUpdateOUTPERFORMChinaInternetMaintainNovemberonlineretailsalesrecapNBSreleased15DecemberNovemberonlineretailsalesdataYoYgrowthChinaInternetSectorofonlinephysicalgoodsGMVslowedto12YoYamidsoftconsumptionsentimentbutonlineretailsalespenetrationrateofphysicalgoodsreachedSaiyiHECFA271in11M22atahistoricalhighwhichweattributetofurtherconstrained85239161739offlineactivitiesandfurthercommerceadoptionofnewonlineformatThehighhesaiyicmbicomhkonlinepenetrationcouldsustainintoDecemberinourviewasofflineactivitieswillremainconstrainedandcontinuetoshiftonlineAlthoughweexpectthatYeTAOfranktaocmbicomhktheoverallconsumptionrecoverywillstilltaketimeitshouldnormalisefrom2Q23onwardsonthebackofeconomicstimuluspolicyandeasingpandemicWentaoLUoutbreaksWeexpectthemarketwillfirstfocusonearningsvisibilityqualityluwentaocmbicomhkandthenwillmoveontochasestockswithnewgrowthdriversWemaintainBUYonAlibabaPinduoduoMeituanandJDcomRelatedReports1PinduoduoPDDUSStrongOnlinepenetrationofretailsalesreachedanewhighinNovemberandrevenueandearningsgrowth29isexpectedtorisehigherAccordingtoNBSChinasonlineretailsalesNovGMVgrew42YoYin11M22vsatwo-yearCAGRof134in11M212Meituan3690HKLong-termSpecificallyonlinephysicalgoodsGMVrose64YoYin11M22implyingdevelopmentintactdespiteshort-12YoYgrowthinNovember20223Q2271YoYOctober2022termheadwinds28Nov153YoYOnlineretailsalesofphysicalgoodsaccountedfor271of3JDcomJDUSStronger-than-totalconsumergoodssalesin11M2211M2124510M22262aexpectedmarginexpansion19historicalhighwhichweattributetothepullfromnew-formlive-streamingNove-commerceandcommunitygroupbuycoupledwithconstrainedoffline4AlibabaEarningsbackongrowthfoot-trafficwhichpushedfurthersalespromotionsonlineBytypesoftrack18NovconsumptiononlineretailsalesGMVoffoodclothingconsumergoodsgrew1513461YoYin11M22from1675365YoYin10M22We5InternetOctoberonlineretailexpecte-commercesectorwillreceiveadditionaldemandboostuntil2Q23salesrecap15NovduetocurrentpandemicsituationsOverallconsumptionrecoverystilltakestimeAccordingtoNBStotalretailsalesGMVofconsumergoodswasdown59YoYinNovember2022Oct2022-05YoYordown61ifexcludingGMVgeneratedfromautosalesindicatingafurthersoftenedconsumptionsentimentInadditioncateringservicesGMVwasRMB4435bninNovember2022down84YoYJulAugSepOct-1584-17-81whichcouldbepartlyworsenedbyrestrictedofflinefoottrafficRegardingkeycategoriesinretailsalessalesGMVofapparelcosmeticshouseholdappliancedeclinedby15646173YoYrespectivelyinNovember2022Oct2022down7537141YoYAlthoughstaplesdemonstratedgreaterresiliencethandiscretionaryconsumptionthegrowthwasslowedinNovemberFoodbeverageretailsaleswereup39-62YoYinNovember2022October20228341YoYFocusturnstobothprofitabilityandnewbusinessgrowthLookinginto2023withthesupportofmacrostimuluspolicyandnewonlineretailformattofurtherincreasemarketshareielivestreaminge-commerceon-demandretailthegrowthofonlineretailsalesGMVofphysicalgoodscouldrecoverto120YoYbasedonourestimatesE-commerceplatformswillcompeteonenhancingcoreuserbasestickinessaimingforqualitygrowththroughdrivingforhigherrepurchaserateandcrosscategorysalesMeanwhileleveragingChinasstrongsupplychainadvantagee-commerceplatformscouldbroadentheiroverseasexpansiontounlocklong-termgrowthpotentialWeexpectthemarkettofocusonbothcorebusinessprofitabilityanddevelopmentofnewbusinessgrowthdriversin2023WemaintainBUYonAlibabaPinduoduoMeituanandJDPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk16Nov2022Figure1YoYgrowthofonlineretailsalesofphysicalgoods20151050OctOctJulJul2M22AugDecAugJunJunAprSepNovMarSepNovMayMay-----2122------------2221222122222122212121222222-521-10SourceNBSCMBIGMFigure2YoYgrowthofonlineretailsalesGMVoffoodclothingconsumergoodsOnlineretailsalesgrowthoffoodOnlineretailsalesgrowthofclothingOnlineretailsalesgrowthofconsumergoods504030201007M216M188M183M195M197M199M192M204M206M208M203M215M219M212M224M226M228M2211M2110M1812M1811M1910M2012M2010M22-10-20-30SourceNBSCMBIGMFigure3Onlinepenetrationofphysicalgoodsretailsales3025201510502022202220222016201720172017201720182018201820182019201920192019202020202020202020212021202120212022-------------------------04071010010407100104071001040710010407100104071001SourceNBSCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE216Nov2022DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBISwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE3
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