研究报告全文：MN20Dec2022CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdateRecbio2179HKSuperiorimmunogenicityonReCOVvsPfizersmRNAvaccineTargetPriceHK3886RecbioannouncedpositiveresultsinthePhaseIIstudyofitsCOVIDvaccinePreviousTPHK3877ReCOVwhichcomparedtheimmunogenicityandsafetytoPfizersmRNAUpDownside7233vaccineCOMIRNATYasaboostervaccinationThehead-to-headtrialCurrentPriceHK2255enrolled600subjectswithbasicimmunizationoftwodosesofinactivevaccinesinthePhilippinesandtheresultswereupon14dayspost-boosterChinaHealthcareStatisticalsuperiorityinimmunogenicityvsCOMIRNATYagainstJillWUCFAbothprototypestrainsandOmicronstrainsInliveneutralizationassays85239000842jillwucmbicomhkagainstprototypestrainstheseroconversionrateSCRneutralizingantibodystrainoftheReCOVgroupandCOMIRNATYgroupwas960CathyWANGvs910Pvalue0039TheGMTintheReCOVgroupwassignificantly85239161729higherthanthatinthemRNAvaccinegroup77818vs56053Pcathywangcmbicomhkvalue0001NeutralizingantibodylevelinducedbyReCOVincreasedby251timescomparedwiththebaselinewhichwashigherthanthatoftheStockDatamRNAvaccine157timesInliveneutralizationassaysagainstOmicronMktCapHKmn10891Avg3mthstoHKmn484BA2andBA5theGMTsintheReCOVgroup5687and4387452wHighLowHK28301772respectivelywerebothsignificantlyhigherthanthatinthemRNAvaccineTotalIssuedSharesmn94group39972and31006respectivelyPvalue0001ThesuperiorSourceBloombergimmunogenicitywasshowninbothadultsandelderlysub-groupsShareholdingStructureExcellentcross-neutralizationeffectInthepreviousstudytheManagement173neutralizingantibodytiterwaslowerby70againstBA2and210againstLegendCapital100SourceHKExBA45twoweeksafterhomologousboostervaccinationofPfizersmRNAvaccinesLinkHowevertheneutralizingantibodiesinducedbyReCOVSharePerformanceagainstBA2andBA5wereonly137and177timeslowerthanthatAbsoluteRelativeagainstprototypestrainsindicatingReCOVsbroadneutralization1-mth142563-mth8446GoodsafetyprofileAsofthedataanalysisdatenoSAEandTEAE6-mth115208leadingtoearlydiscontinuationwerereportedThemajorityofTEAEswereSourceBloomberggrade1tograde2inseverityandrecoveredinashorttimeMostcommon12-mthPricePerformancesolicitedsystemicTEAEsincludedheadachefeverandmyalgiaTheHK2179HKHSIrebasedincidenceofTEAEwassimilarintheadultandelderlysub-groupswhich30supportedReCOVtobeusedfortheelderlyasofficialscallingontheelderly2520togetbasicandfirstseconddosesofboostervaccinated15INDapplicationapprovedbyFDAofthePhilippinesforREC610Recbio10hasreceivedapprovaltoconductPhaseItrialofitsrecombinantshingles5vaccineREC610inthePhilippinesevaluatingthesafetyand0immunogenicityofREC610vsGSKShingrixAdditionallyRecbioMar-22Jun-22Sep-22expandedthevaccinesindicationtoadultaged40andabovecomparedtoSourceBloombergShingrixwhichindicatedforadultsaged50andolderRelatedreportMaintainBUYWeexpectRecbiotoreceiveEUABLAforReCOVin2023E1RecbioTechnology2179HKandsubmitBLAofREC610totheNMPAin2024EWerevisedourTPtoSmoothprogressofcorepipelineHK3886WACC112terminalgrowthrate25products29Aug2022EarningsSummaryYE31DecFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenueRMBmn000146487YoYgrowthnananana2343NetprofitRMBmn179658668741726EPSReportedRMBcentsnana138301534615027RDexpensesRMB131473500500500AdminexpensesRMBmn18143180198218CAPEXRMBmn138238300300250SourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk20Dec2022Figure1CMBIGMearningsrevisionsNewOldDiffRMBmnFY22EFY23EFY24EFY22EFY23EFY24EFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenue01464876217451446NA-916-663Grossprofit029112401151969NA-975-884Operatingprofit-664-712-652-781-210-200NANANANetprofit-668-741-726-785-239-266NANANAEPSRMBcents-138-153-2-163-049-1NANANAGrossmarginNA20002300645265966701NA-4596ppt-4401pptSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure2CMBIGMestimatesvsconsensusCMBIGMConsensusDiffRMBmnFY22EFY23EFY24EFY22EFY23EFY24EFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenue014648713117541577NA-917-691GrossProfit0291128213431213NA-978-908OperatingProfit-664-712-652-781124160NANANANetprofit-668-741-726-744111127NANANAEPSRMBcents-1-2-2-152041046NANANAGrossMarginNA20002300625076577690NA-566ppt-539pptSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesValuationFigure3Risk-adjustedDCFvaluationDCFValuationinRmbmn2022E2023E2024E2025E2026E2027E2028E2029E2030E2031E2032E2033E2034E2035EEBIT-679-724-661-599281141522983123376143104783533154275399Taxrate00000000150150150150150150150150150150EBIT1-taxrate-679-724-661-599238120319532655319736644066453246134589DA2938455257616263656667686970-Changeinworkingcapital-108-71-160-130-538-1427-1177-964-771-705-653-757-13238-Capex-300-300-250-250-200-200-100-100-100-100-100-100-100-100FCFF-1058-1057-1026-928-443-3637381654239129243379374244504597Terminalvalue53984Terminalgrowthrate25WACC112CostofEquity140CostofDebt56EquityBeta110RiskFreeRate30MarketRiskPremium100TargetDebttoAssetratio300EffectiveCorporateTaxRate150Terminalvalue12169TotalPV15787Netdebt-729Minorityinterest-0EquityvalueRMBmn16516EquityvalueHKmn483Noofsharesoutstandingmn3420DCFpershareHK3886SourceCMBIGMestimatesFigure4SensitivityanalysisHKWACC3910210711211712235543648174288383234353051224560407536533285Terminalgrowthrate254849433438863495315020461041343718335230291543973955356732242919SourceCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE220Dec2022FinancialSummaryINCOMESTATEMENT2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecRMBmnRevenue0000146487Costofgoodssold0000117375Grossprofit000029112Sellingexpense00346060Adminexpense1218143180198218RDexpense63131473500500500Others76375642974Operatingprofit62142601664712652Otherincome131028201714Otherexpense0310000Pre-taxprofit138179658668741726Incometax000000Aftertaxprofit138179658668741726Minorityinterest000000Netprofittoshareholders138179658668741726BALANCESHEET2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecRMBmnCurrentassets31170912958949741028Cashequivalents573561183806732441Accountreceivables000060200Inventories7824094298Prepayment142088888888FinancialassetsatFVTPL2323260000Non-currentassets11633862589511571362PPE561294166929591168Intangibles222222222222Goodwill999999Othernon-currentassets28178177172167163Totalassets42710471919179021322390Currentliabilities1857139891275Accountpayables2217058185Othercurrentliabilities165512283390Non-currentliabilities728199810710711071907Long-termborrowings00505010501850Deferredincome01832323232Othernon-currentliabilities728198024242424Totalliabilities746205624611411982182Sharecapital00448448448448Totalshareholdersequity320100916731675934208Minorityinterest000000Totalequityandliabilities42710471919179021322390PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE320Dec2022CASHFLOW2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecRMBmnOperatingProfitbeforetaxation138179658668741726Depreciationamortization41322293845Taxpaid000000Changeinworkingcapital68641910871160Others6432181111765Netcashfromoperations13970473758757776InvestingCapitalexpenditure79138238300300250Acquisitionofsubsidiariesinvestments200000Others26912030715129Netcashfrominvesting34625969285288241FinancingDividendpaid000000Netborrowings005001000800Proceedsfromshareissues00067000Others490680117942974Netcashfromfinancing4906801229666971726NetchangeincashCashatthebeginningoftheyear173561183806732Exchangedifference038000Cashattheendoftheyear73561173806732441GROWTH2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecRevenuenanananana2343Grossprofitnanananana2845PROFITABILITY2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecGrossprofitmarginnananana200230Operatingmarginnananana48851337ReturnonequityROEnana19793995681271GEARINGLIQUIDITYACTIVITIES2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecCurrentratiox17512393113710737Receivableturnoverdaysnanana150015001500Inventoryturnoverdaysnanana300029502900Payableturnoverdaysnanana180018001800VALUATION2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecDivyieldnanana000000SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesNoteThecalculationofnetcashincludesfinancialassetsPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE420Dec2022DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMoritsaffiliateshaveinvestmentbankingrelationshipwiththeissuerscoveredinthisreportinpreceding12monthsCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBIGMGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBIGMGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBIGMGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBIGMGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE5