研究报告全文：19Dec2022CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchEconomicPerspectivesChinaPolicyRevivinggrowthandrestoringconfidenceasthepriorityin2023Chinasleaderssentstrongpro-growthandpro-businesssignalsatthePartysBingnanYEPhDCentralEconomicWorkingConferenceCEWClastFridayWithanewgrowth85237618967pushtheleadersmayhavesettheGDPgrowthtargetat5orhigherfor2023yebingnancmbicomhkRestoringbusinessconfidenceisonepriorityforChinaastheleaderspledgedtocreateafavorableenvironmentfortheprivatesectorandshowedfriendlierYoYattitudetointernetplatformcompaniesChinawouldadoptmoreaccommodative20fiscalmonetarypolicywithanincreaseofbroaddeficitratioandfurtherRRR15LPRcutsin2023ConsumptionresumptionisthekeyforChinatoexpand10domesticdemandChinawillreopenitseconomyassoonaspossibletoresume5consumerspendingandserviceactivityConsumptionmayseenear-term0turbulencebeforeagradualresumptionfromMarchChinawillfurtherloosen5creditpolicyforthepropertysectortoboosthousingmarketHousingmarketmay10graduallystabilizefrom2Q23withamildgrowthforsomeindicatorsinthesecond2Q211Q192Q193Q194Q191Q202Q203Q204Q201Q213Q214Q211Q224Q23F3Q22F4Q22F1Q23F2Q23F3Q23F1Q24F2Q24FhalfyearChinaeconomywillbeinagradualresumptioninnexttwoyearswith2Q22FUSGDPChinaGDPtheGDPgrowthupfrom27in2022to51in2023SourceWindCMBIGMAnewgrowthpushwiththeGDPgrowthtargetprobablyat5orYoY16higherAttheCEWCChinasleadersvowedtofocusonrevivinggrowth14momentumin2023TheyshouldhavesettheGDPgrowthtargetfornextyear1210attheCEWCbutthespecificnumberwillnotbereleaseduntilnextMarch8duringtheNationalPeoplesCongressmeetingNewcabinetleadersseemed64eagertoshowtheirdeterminationtoboostgrowthastheymaysettheGDP2growthtargetat5orhigherfor2023Theambitiousgoalsendsaclear02signaltolocalofficialsthateconomicgrowthonceagainbecomesimportant4KPIforthemin2023Recentlyofficialsinsomeprovinceshavealready6organizedoverseastripstohuntfortradedealsindicatingapro-growthshift20192020202120222023CPIPPIDuetofasterdeclineofoverseasdemandandthenear-termturbulenceafterSourceWindCMBIGMdomesticreopeningwecuttheGDPgrowthforecastfor2022from3to27WeraisetheGDPgrowthforecastfor2023from49to51thankstolowerbaseMorepro-businessstancewithconfidencerestorationasthepriorityfornewcabinetThelockdownspropertymarketslumpandtoughregulationovercapitalsseverelyhurtbusinessconfidencein2022TorestorebusinessconfidenceChinasleadersvowedtoencourageandsupportthedevelopmentofprivateeconomyandprivateenterprisesTheypledgedtocreateafavorableenvironmentfortheprivatesectorTheleadersalsopresentedafriendlierfacetointernetplatformcompaniesastheyvowedtosupportthosecompaniestoleadthegrowthabsorbmoreemploymentandcompeteinglobalmarketMoreaccommodativepolicieswithashiftfromsupply-sidereformtodemandboostChinavowedtoexpanddemandfor2023Thisisanimportantchangeofpolicyframeworkasthepolicymakersplacedmoreemphasisonsupply-sidereforminthepastseveralyearsTherewillbemorelooseningofbothfiscalpolicyandmonetarypolicyin2023thanin2022AsoverseaseconomymayseearecessionwithdisinflationweexpectChinasexportsofgoodstodropby35in2023afterrising7in2022ChinasreflationpressureafterreopeningshouldbemildasweexpecttheCPIgrowthmayslightlyrisefrom2in2022to22in2023ThereforethekeytaskforPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk19Dec2022ChinaisgrowthboostinsteadofinflationcontrolWeexpectChinamaylaunchmoderatestimulusnextyearBroadfiscaldeficitmayrisefrom58ofGDPin2022to62ofGDPin2023LiquidityandcreditpolicyshouldremainaccommodativeasthecentralbankmaycutRRRandLPRsforonceortwicenextyearNewrenminbiloansandsocialfinancingamountmayrespectivelygrow11and10in2023afterrising53and46in2022MoreemphasisonconsumptionresumptionasChinasreopeningwasfasterthanexpectationsChinasleadersconsideredconsumptionresumptionasthekeytoexpanddomesticdemandThepandemicandhousingmarketslumpcausedsignificantdamagetoconsumerconfidenceandspendingHouseholdsavingrateroseto40in9M2022andretailsalesdropped01inthefirstelevenmonthsthisyearTheleadersvowedtosupportemploymentandincomegrowthstabilizehousingmarketandboostEVandelderlycareconsumptionWeexpectChinawouldreopentheeconomyassoonaspossibletoresumeconsumptionandserviceactivityThewaveofOmicronvirusmaypeakinJanuary-February2023Consumptionmayseenear-termturbulencebeforeagradualrecoveryfromMarchChinamaylaunchindividualincometaxcutandprovidecouponstostimulatehouseholdconsumptionWeexpectretailsalestogrow65in2023afteraroundzerogrowthin2022MoreproactiveattitudetoboostpropertysectorTheleadersvowedtostabilizepropertymarkettoavoidsystematicriskinthefinancialsystemTheycalledforgreatereffortstocompleteunfinishedhousingprojectsmeetfinancingdemandofpropertydevelopersandlowerthedebtriskoflargedevelopersTheleadersalsopledgedtoboosthousingdemandandsupportthedevelopmentoflong-termrentalhousingWeexpectthepolicymakerswillencouragebankstoexpandloansupplytopropertydevelopersandhomebuyersThedown-paymentratioandmortgageratesforthesecond-homebuyersmaynoticeablydeclineinfutureWeexpecthousingsalesmaygraduallystabilizefrom2Q23andseeamildYoYgrowthin2H23FasterinstitutionalopeningupandtoattractmoreforeigncapitalsChinavowedtopushforwardhigh-levelopeningupwitheasiermarketaccessforforeigncompaniesChinashoweditseagernesstojointheComprehensiveandProgressiveAgreementforTrans-PacificPartnershipCPTPPastheleaderstriedtousetheinternationalstandardtodeepenstructuralreformsinthedomesticTheleaderscalledforgreateffortstoattractmoreforeigncapitalsasforeigninvestorsconfidencedroppedsignificantlyinrecenttwoyearsWeexpectcapitaloutflowpressuremayalleviatenoticeablyin2023asSino-USinterestspreadsandforeigninvestorconfidenceaboutChinareboundsafterreopeninginthecountryPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE219Dec2022Figure1GovernmentEconomicTargetsinChina202020212022F2023FTargetActualTargetActualTargetForecast9M2022TargetFForecastGDPYoY-236orhigher835527305orhigher51CPIYoY352530143020203022Urbanincrementalemploymentmn90119110127110120100110100Urbanunemploymentrate605255515555555555GeneralfiscalrevenueYoY-53-398110738-15-666565GeneralfiscalexpenditureYoY382918038462625050GeneralfiscaldeficitRmbbn376003760035700357003370033700372383970039700GeneralfiscaldefecitasofGDP363732312828-3131LocalgovtspecialbondquotaRmbbn375003750036500365003650036500-3950039500LocalgovtspecialbondquotaasofGDP363733323030-3131NotablyinlinewithinlinewithinlinewithM2YoYhigherthan101norminal90norminal125124norminal110lastyearGDPgrowthGDPgrowthGDPgrowthSourceWindCMBIGMFigure2OutputGrowthinChinaFigure3DemandGrowthinChinaSourceWINDCMBIGMSourceWINDCMBIGMFigure4HouseholdSavingRateConfidenceFigure5FAIGrowthbyMainSectorinChinaSourceWINDCMBIGMSourceWINDCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE319Dec2022Figure6PropertyMarketIndicatorsinChinaFigure7ChinasUrbanizationHousingSalesSourceWINDCMBIGMSourceWINDCMBIGMFigure8DemographicStructureHousingMarketFigure9ChinasExportsandImportsVolumeSourceWINDCMBIGMSourceWINDCMBIGMFigure10ChinasExportsandImportsPriceFigure11MonetaryCycleCommodityPriceSourceWINDCMBIGMSourceWINDCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE419Dec2022Figure12ChinasCPIGrowthinKeyItemsFigure13LaborParticipationRatesSourceWINDCMBIGMSourceWINDCMBIGMFigure14PBOCPolicyRatesFigure15ChinaCoreInflation2-YrT-bondRatesSourceWINDCMBIGMSourceWINDCMBIGMFigure16CreditM2GrowthinChinaFigure17ChinasBroadDeficitRatioSourceWINDCMBIGMSourceWINDCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE519Dec2022Figure18CentralEconomicWorkingConferencesinRecentThreeYearsCEWCfor2021CEWCfor2022CEWCfor2023ThemeSupply-sidereformSupply-sidereformDemandstimulussupply-sidereformTargettokeepeconomicgrowthwithintokeepeconomicgrowthwithintoimproveeconomicgrowthandboostmarketreasonablerangewhilefacilitatingreasonablerangeconfidencetechinnovationeconomicrestructuringandcommonprosperityFiscalMoreefficientsustainableMoretargetedandsustainableMoreproactivepolicywithnecessaryexpenditurepolicywithadditionaltaxcutsgrowthandbettercombinationofgeneralfiscaldeficitspecialgovernmentbondquotaandsubsidytospecialloansMonetaryMoreflexibletargetedwithstableMoreflexiblewithmoderateMoreeasingmonetarypolicywithM2socialpolicyrealsectordebtratioliquiditysupplyfinancinggrowthinlinewithnominalGDPgrowthandstrongercreditsupporttosmallbusinessinnovationandgreendevelopmentKeytaskstostrengthennationalscienceprudentandeffectivemacrotoboostbusinesssentimentandhouseholdtechinnovationcapacitytoimprovepoliciesflexiblemicroconfidencetostimulatedemandespeciallysupplychainsecuritytofurthermanagementpoliciesconsumptionhousingmarketEVandelderlycarereformandopenuptoimprovesupportivestructuralpoliciestoacceleratedevelopmentofmodernindustrialseedtechprotectfarmlandtofurtherreformandopeningupsystemnewenergysupplysystemAIbiotechenhanceanti-monopolyregulationsocialwelfareimprovementagreentechnewinformationtechtoboostprivateandcurbdisorderlyexpansionofbalancebetweencarbonbusinessdevelopmenttoattractmoreforeigncapitalstoresolvehousingproblemneutralityandenergysupplycapitalstolowerfinancialsystematicrisksinlargecitiestopushforwardsecurityaprogrammaticcarbonpeakandneutralityattitudetowardscommonprosperityHousinghouseisforlivingnotforhouseisforlivingnotforTostabilizehousingmarkettocompleteunfinishedmarketspeculationtoboostsupplyoflow-speculationtosupplymorehousingprojectstomeetfinancingdemandofrentsubsidizedhousingtomonitorsubsidizedhousingincitiestopropertydeveloperstosupporttheconsolidationinandcontrolhousingrentinthesupportreasonablehousingthesectortolowerthedebtriskoflargedevelopersmarketdemandwithanimprovementoftheirliabilityconditiontolowermoralhazardrisktoboosthousingdemandInternettoenhanceanti-monopolyTolaunchnegativelistandtosupportthedevelopmentofdigitaleconomytosectorregulationandcurbdisorderlypositivelistofsectorsforcapitalimproveregulatorysystemtosupportplatformexpansionofcapitalsexpansioncompaniestoleadthegrowthabsorbmoreemploymentandcompeteinglobalmarketCovidtoenhanceCovidcontrolpolicytocontrolCovidvirusmoretogetovertheoutbreakperiodsmoothlypolicypreciselyOthertooptimizesocialsecuritysystemtoimprovepublicservicetopromoteemploymentamongyouthtoenhancepolicytooptimizeincomedistributiontosupplyformigrantpeopleinlaborrightprotectionforthepart-timeworkerstopushforwardcommonprosperitycitiestoenhancelaborrightunitelocalpensionplanstoincreasemedicalsocialsafetyprotectionforpart-healthcaresupplyincommunitiesandruralareastotimeworkerstograduallyuniteboostchildbirthratestograduallydelayretirementlocalbasicpensionplansintoaforemployeesnationalpooltoallowcouplestohave3childrenSourceXinhuaNewsAgencyCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE619Dec2022DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE7