>> 招银国际-China Economy – Going through the darkness before dawn-230103
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研究报告全文：3Jan2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchEconomicPerspectivesChinaEconomyGoingthroughthedarknessbeforedawnChinasPMIsharplydeclinedinDecembertothelowestsinceFebruary2020asBingnanYEPhDthevirusoutbreakafterreopeningpromptedpeopletostayhomeandbusinesses85237618967tocloseOutputnewordersandemploymentallcontractedwhilethedeliveryyebingnancmbicomhktimesofsuppliersincreasedduetotemporarysupplydisruptionsWebelieveChinaisgoingthroughthedarknessbeforedawnafterreopeningasthepandemicmayhavepeakedinmostcitiesrecentlyPopulationmobilityandindex65outdooractivitiesshouldgraduallyimprovefromJanuarypointingtothefirst60waveofresumptioninsomeconsumergoodsandservicesaheadChinas5550reflationpressureafterreopeningshouldbemoderateasdomesticdemand4540resumptionisgradualoverseasdemandsoftensandthepandemichaslimited35impactonthelaborparticipationChinawillmaintaineasingmonetarypolicyand3025proactivefiscalpolicyin2023Meanwhilenewleaderswilltakeeffortstostabilize2019202020212022propertymarketandboostbusinessconfidenceWeexpecttheGDPgrowthtoManufacturingPMIreboundfrom27in2022to51in2023ConstructionPMIServicePMISourceNBSCMBIGMPMIslumpedtothelowestsinceFebruary2020PMIinmanufacturingandservicerespectivelydroppedfrom48and451inNovemberto47andindex394inDecemberthelowestsinceFebruary2020Theindexesinretail5553traderoadtransportationaccommodationcateringandinhabitantservice5149droppedtobelow35inDecemberasthosesectorsarequitesensitiveto4745populationmobilityPMIinfoodandmedicineremainedabove50because4341ofstabledemandinthosestaplesectorsPMIinconstructionslowedfrom39554inNovemberto544inDecemberyetstillabove50thanksto3735stronggrowthofinfrastructureinvestmentPMIinairtransportationrebounded2019202020212022toabove60inDecemberasthenumberofflightsincreasednoticeablyafterPMIoflargeenterprisesPMIofmediumenterprisesreopeningPMIintelecomserviceinternetserviceandfinancialservicealsoPMIofsmallenterprisesremainedabove50asdemandinthosesectorswasrelativelystableSourceNBSCMBIGMLookingforwardPMIinmostservicesectorswillgraduallyreboundalongwiththeimprovementofpopulationmobilityandconfidenceOverseasanddomesticdemanddeterioratedNeworderindexsignificantlydroppedfrom464inNovemberto439inDecemberBothoverseasdemandanddomesticconsumptiondeterioratedwithdownsidepressureonmostmanufacturingindustriesTheexportorderindexandimportindexrespectivelydecreasedfrom467and471inNovemberto442and437inDecemberThesharpdeclineofpopulationmobilityalsocooleddownserviceactivityNeworderindexinserviceslumpedfrom414inNovemberto374inDecemberHoweverneworderindexinconstructionandsteelproductrosefrom469and345inNovemberto488and389inDecemberindicatinglessdownsidepressureinthosesectorsMaterialcostreboundedwithtemporarysupplydisruptionsMaterialcostindexinmanufacturingconstructionreached516and512inDecemberupfrom507and487inNovemberSteelproductsectorsawasignificantriseofmaterialcostindexfrom38inNovemberto598inDecemberTheincreaseofmaterialcostsmaybeduetotwocausesFirstChinasreopeningboostedthesentimentanddemandprospectincommoditymarketSecondthevirusoutbreakafterreopeningcausedtemporarysupplydisruptionsassomeworkershadtostayathomeafterbeinginfectedHoweverwebelieveChinasreflationpressureafterreopeningshouldbemoderateForonethingPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk3Jan2023theresumptionofdomesticdemandespeciallyinhousinganddurablesshouldbegradualwithoutoverheatingriskOverseasdemandshouldsignificantlydeclineastherecessioniscomingForanotherthingthepandemichasverylimitedimpactonthelaborparticipationinChinaduetohighunemploymentpressureTheemploymentindexinmanufacturingandservicesignificantlydroppedfrom474and452inNovemberto448and424inDecemberthelowestsinceFebruary2020Wenotetheex-factorypriceindexesinbothmanufacturingandserviceremainedweakinDecemberWeexpectChinasCPItoincrease22in2023afterrising2in2022ThePPIisexpectedtodrop05in2023afterincreasing43in2022Chinaeconomyisinagradualresumptionin2023-2024ChinaeconomyisbracingforagradualresumptionwhileoverseaseconomyismovingfromstagflationintoarecessionChinasnewleadersaretryingtoreopeneconomystabilizepropertymarketandrestoremarketconfidenceassoonaspossiblewithapro-businessstanceChinasmonetarypolicyremainsaccommodativewithampleliquiditysupplyandeasingcreditpolicyThePBOCmayfurthercutRRRLPRsfor1-2timesUSRMBratesmaydeclinefrom69atend-2022to665atend-2023Fiscalpolicywillbemoreproactivewithbroaddeficitratioupfrom58in2022to62in2023andpolicybanksspecialloansSOEsdebtcontinuetoexpandWeexpectChinasGDPgrowthwouldrisefrom27in2022to51in2023HealthcaretransportationcateringtravelhotelrecreationservicesshouldseearapidrecoverywhiledurableshousingmarketmayhaveagradualresumptionPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE23Jan2023Figure1NewOrderIndexFigure2BusinessExpectationIndexindex70index605565506045554035503045252019202020212022402019202020212022ManufacturingNon-ManufacturingServiceManufacturingConstructionServiceSourceNBSCMBIGMSourceNBSCMBIGMFigure3ExportOrderandImportIndexFigure4InventoryMaterialPurchaseIndexindexindex555550504545404035353030201920202021202225Inventoryofproducts2019202020212022InventoryofmaterialsExportorderindexImportindexPurchasevolumeofmaterialsSourceNBSCMBIGMSourceNBSCMBIGMFigure5MaterialCostIndexFigure6Ex-factoryPriceIndexindexindex75657065606055555045405035304525201920202021202240ManufacturingConstruction2019202020212022ServiceSteelManufacturingConstructionServiceSourceNBSCMBIGMSourceNBSCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE33Jan2023Figure7ManufacturingOutputIndexFigure8ServiceOutputIndexindexYoYindexYoY23Y60106015585510556505455245050040485546354410103042401525152018201920202021202220182019202020212022ServicePMILHSManufacturingOutputIndexLHSServiceoutputindexYoYRHSVAIOYoYgrowthRHSServiceGDPYoYRHSSourceNBSCMBGMSourceNBSCMBGMFigure9CompositeOutputIndexFigure10EmploymentIndexindexYoYindex608606555545025004524045435640830201820192020202120222019202020212022CompositeoutputindexLHSGDPYoYRHSManufacturingConstructionServiceSourceNBSCMBGMSourceNBSCMBGMFigure11SupplyDeliveryIndexFigure12TrafficFlowIndexinShanghaiindex5550454035302019202020212022SupplydeliveryindexinmanufacturingSupplydeliveryindexinserviceSourceNBSCMBGMSourceWindCMBGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE43Jan2023Figure13ChangeofTrafficCongestionIndexinMainCitiesSourceWindCMBIGMFigure14ChangeofSubwayPassengerFlowinMainCitiesSourceWindCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE53Jan2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE6
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