>> 招银国际-China Feihe (6186 HK) Looks to be a beta play within 1H23, when birth rate likely starts inflecting post 3Q-230103
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研究报告全文：3Jan2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyupdateChinaFeihe6186HKLookstobeabetaplaywithin1H23whenbirthBUYMaintainTargetPriceHK80ratelikelystartsinflectingpost3QPreviousTPHK76DespitesentimentimprovinguponChinasre-openingwefeelthatFeihewillUpDownside212likelyremainabetaplayoressentiallyalaggardtoitsFBpeersthatenjoyCurrentPriceHK66highersensitivitytothethemeWeacknowledgethelong-termbenefitsfromtheChinaConsumerStaplesabolishmentofsocial-distancingmeasuresThatsaidwearealsowaryoftheFoodandBeveragesdisruptiontoneartermgrowthwithuncertaintiesarisingfromhowhouseholdsandbusinessesreacttothisexitwaveWethinkfamilyandchildplanningisunlikelytotopthespendingagendaasoppositetodine-outandtraveldemandJosephWongconsideringtheleveloffinancialresourcesrequiredInthiscasethenet85239000838consumptionofstage1-3formulaforaged0-3infantsisunlikelytoinflectwithinjosephwongcmbicomhk1H23whentheexitwavecouldstillweighonbirthrateandresultinastagnantifnotstillshrinkingTAMnewbornminusaged3infantsexitrateSeparatelyStockDatacompetitionshouldcontinuetobeuptightgivenYilisaggressiveentryTheonlyMktCapHKmn59950Avg3mthstoHKmn1471meritweenvisageisthatthenewnationalIMFstandardwouldfosteramore52wHighLowHK11745healthyoperationlandscapeandbenefitFeiheasoneoftheleadingplayersinTotalIssuedSharesmn8883thesectorinthelongrunTomodeltheabovescenariowetrimour2023ESourceBloombergrevenueby29butraiseour2024Erevenueby18leadingtoa-4553changeinEBITandthus-6447changeinournetprofitsassumptionsShareholdingStructureConsideringthepotentialvaluationmean-reversionuponChinasreopeningGarlandGloryHoldings436MorganStanley78goingforwardwearebuy-ratedonFeihebutpreferCRBeerintheFBsegmentDashengLtd45OtherearningsassumptionsSourceHKExWelargelymaintainour2HrevenueassumptionsatRMB115bnup25SharePerformanceYoYor19HoHMeanwhileweexpect1H2H2023ErevenuetoreachAbsoluteRelative1-mth138153RMB102bn126bnup5599YoYrespectively3-mth127466-mth-203-168Wemildlyreviseddownour2023GPMandOPMby0306ppttoreflectaSourceBloombergmoreaggressiveproductdiscountandAPexpenseforFeihetomaintainitsmarketshareinresponsetoYilisentryOurchannelchecksuggestsproductdiscountiswideningforbothbrandsparticularlyinlowertiercitiesOurRelatedReports1ChinaFeihe6186HK20222324ENPMnowstandsat249250266whichfallsslightlybelowCompletionofchannelmanagementstargetof26-27restructuringcontinuestodriveasteady2Hrecovery22Sep2022ManagementtargetsDDHoHrevenuegrowthin2HandMSDrevenuedeclinefor2022E1H22-162YoYMargin-wiseFeiheindicatedthat2HNPMwill2ChinaFeihe6186HK1HsofterimproveHoHwithfullyearGPMandNPMstandingat66-681H2268thanexpectedalower2022E2021703andc261H222332021302Withthatthisimpliesdespiteasequentiallybetter2H25Jul2022sellingexpenseratiotostabiliseatc30inlongerterm1H22325ValuationmethodologyChinaFeihe-2HsetstorecoverwhenchannelrestructuringOurnewTPisbasedonanunchanged115xroll-forwardmid-23EPEwhichstillcompletesasplanned30Junrepresents-1sdbelowitslongtermaverage2022YE31DecFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenueRMBmn1859222776211772284726312YoYgrowth3552257079152NetincomeRMBmn74376871526657206986EPSRMB0808060608YoYgrowth6987623486221ConsensusEPSRMBnana070809PExnana958872PBxnana221916Yieldnana363947ROE419328232217225NetgearingnetcashnetcashnetcashnetcashnetcashSourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk3Jan2023Figure1EarningsrevisionNewOldDiffRMBmnFY22EFY23EFY24EFY22EFY23EFY24EFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenue21177228472631221177235362585100-2918GrossProfit14116152861771214116158211748400-3413EBIT76018233990473898621940529-4553Netprofit52665720698652296112667207-6447EPSRMB05806307705706707307-6447GrossMargin6676696736676726760ppt-03ppt-03pptEBITMargin3593603763493663641ppt-06ppt13pptNetMargin24925026624726025802ppt-09ppt07pptSourceCMBIGMestimatesFigure2OurearningsestimatesvsBloombergconsensusCMBIGMConsensusDiffRMBmnFY22EFY23EFY24EFY22EFY23EFY24EFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenue211772284726312226312531328120-64-97-64GrossProfit141161528617712152391707518894-74-105-63OperatingProfit7601823399047608966110661-01-148-71Netprofit526657206986620070117761-151-184-100EPSRMB058063077068077086-147-181-102GrossMargin667669673673675672-07ppt-06ppt01pptEBITMargin35936037633638237923ppt-21ppt-03pptNetMargin249250266274277276-25ppt-27ppt-1pptSourceBloombergCMBIGMestimatesFigure31-yearforwardPEchartFigure4TrailingPBchartx1-yrfwdPELTaveragex1-yrtrailingPBLTaverage32-2SD-1SD12-2SD-1SD1SD2SD1SD2SD281024820616412824-330202063020209302020331202163020219302021331202263020229302022831202043020226302022229202043020206302020228202143020216302021831202122820228312022123120211230201912312020103120201230201912312020103120211231202110312022SourceBloombergCMBISestimatesSourceBloombergCMBISestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE3Jan2023FinancialSummaryIncomestatementCashflowsummaryYE31DecRMBmnFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24EYE31DecRMBmnFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenue1859222776211772284726312Netincome74376871526657206986IMF1767421853202562192825394DA266443510601684Others919923921919918Changeinworkingcapital12538272167139Others1205328494949Grossprofits1348016008141161528617712Netcashfroperatingact77516815584663037581DA266443510601684Capexinvestments8161930202317481742Sellingexpense52636729698875408157Shortterminvestment-----Administrationexpenses11611208127112571395Others2970514---Otherincomegains30191864186418641864Netcashfrinvestingact37862444202317481742Otherexpense23190120120120EBIT98449844760182339904Equityraised-365---ChangeofDebts3630444200100-EBITDA10110102888111883410588Dividendpaid26853392346221062288Others377244---Financecostsnet7481879191Netcashfrfinancingact25434245366222062288Non-operating18253276276176Preincomeexpense-taxprofit99009672741380489819Netchangeincash142112516123493550Cashatthebeginningoftheyear881095539629979012139Incometax24642757211322942799Exchangedifference17349---LessMinorityinterests044343434Cashattheendoftheyear10059962997901213915689Netprofit74376871526657206986Lesspledgedcash-----BalancesheetKeyratiosYE31DecRMBmnFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24EYE31DecFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24ENon-currentassets977811512130091414115183SalesmixPPEFixedassets7197843799441109112149IMF951959957960965Intangibleassets48133139139139Others4941434035Rightofuseassetsnet14421707170717071707Othernon-currentassets10911234121912031188PLratiosGrossmargin725703667669673Currentassets1854419970201652267626562Operatingmargin529432359360376Cash10059962997901213915689Pre-taxmargin533425350352373Accountreceivable289477438472544Netmargin400306249250266Inventories557576576576576Effectivetaxrate249285285285285Othercurrentassets76409287936194899753BalancesheetanalysisCurrentliabilities71076942689869937190Currentratiox0505050506Borrowings514833104211331284Netreceivabledays5675757575Accountpayables3464076149101063Inventoryturnoverdays809692692692692Otherpayables90310833094448313Netpayabledays917928928928928Rentpayable53444618214745014530NetdebttoequitynetcashnetcashnetcashnetcashnetcashNon-currentliabilities20302136203619361936ReturnsBorrowings732621521421421ROE251404232217225Deferredtaxliabilities139115115115115Dividendyieldnana363947Othernon-currentliabilities11581399139913991399PershareMinorityInterest14381482151615491583EPSRMB0808060608DPSRMB0304020303Totalnetassets1918622403242412788832620BVPSRMB2023253035Shareholdersequity1774720921227252633931037EVEBITDAxnana544433SourceCompanydataCMBISestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE33Jan2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBIGMGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBIGMGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBIGMGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBIGMGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE4
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