研究报告全文：FixedIncomeCreditCommentary6Jan2023CMBICreditCommentaryFixedIncomeDailyMarketUpdate固定收益部市场日报MarketswasupbeatthismorningNewissueHKAAtightenedseveralbpsthenwesawprofittakingnearnoonRestofspacewasalsobetterbuyingGlennKoCFA高志和therewasdemandonactivetradedLGFVSOEnameswithhigherthan685236576235yieldglennkocmbicomhkAsiaCreditoutlook2023AfterdawnWehavepublisheda2023OutlookforAsiaCreditSeebelowCyrenaNgCPA吳蒨瑩ChinapropertiesChineseauthoritiesextendmeasuretosupportreal85239000801cyrenangcmbicomhkestatesectorviamortgagerateeasingSeebelowTradingdeskcomments交易台市场观点JerryWang王世超YesterdayUSTdrifted2-4bpswiderbutChinaIGspaceremainedfirmwith85237618919strongcashdeploymentneedacrossthestreetPrimarysidewasverybusyjerrywangcmbicomhkasmarketpricedUSD95bnbondsonthedayacrossEIBKORHKINTLandINDONInsecondarymarketnewHKINTL53swerelifted50bpstighterfromT145tocloseT90levelNewEIBKOR510ymanagedtotighten20bpswhile3ytouchedinsidereofferwithbankandlocalaccountschasingfordurationFinancialsspacewas2-3bpstighteronactivetwo-wayflowsBanknamesBOCHKLCMHICNBGwereunderbetterbuyingT2benchmarksCCBswere3-6bpstighterTMTswerestillactivebutrelativelystablefromtherallyonWednesdaywithBABATENCNTtightened2-4bpsBIDUMEITUAXIAOMIwerealso4-7bpstighterIGpropertieslikeLNGFORsmarched15-25ptshigherandCHJMAO4875Perpwasmarkedanother10ptshighertoreach90levelafterjumping9ptsyesterdayChinaHYhadasupersolidsessionagainSINOCEswere4-8ptshigheragainCOGARDswereup15-35ptswithlongendpapersreachedmid-60sFUTLANsFTLNHDswerequoted15-35ptshigherataroundmid-80sandlostfurthermomentumthereBeatennamesAGILEsCENCHIsgappedup5-9ptswithallbuyersaroundCHINSCsweremarked75-105ptshigherwithits23-24sunderFMPBchasingElsewhereGRNLGRsROADKGsweretradedup1-4ptsamidtheboostedsentimentInindustrialspaceFOSUNI25-27sHONGQI24-26sedgedup05-2ptsMacaugamingspacewasabitquieterMPELsWYNMACswereup05-1ptSTCITYsweretraded15-35ptshigherAwayfromChinaIndianHYslikeVEDLNsGRNKENswereunchangedto05pthigherInIndonesiaLMIRTscontinuedtogain15ptsandLPKRIJended25-5ptshigherKIJAIJswerealsowellbidINDON33N53Ngainedaround025pt125ptrespectivelyPLEASEREADTHEAUTHORCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGECMBIFixedIncomefiscmbicomhk16Jan2023IntheLGFVSOEPerpAT1marketsentimentremainedsuperstrongasflowsskewedheavilytobetterbuyingMarketspotlightwasnaturallyonnewissuesearlymorningwith10yand30ytranchesleadingtherallyupto2-6ptshigherincashpricetermsasdurationinhigh-gradepaperscontinuedtobeaggressivelychasedafterIndeednewissueshavebecomeabouttheonlywayforclientstoloadrisksinmeaningfulsizesasoffersideliquidityremainedextremelythininexistingpapersItisalsoworthytomentionthattheLGFVshadasuddensurgeindemandforhigh-betahigh-yieldingweaknamesthatnobodywantedusuallythankstoinflowsandre-leveragingmainlyamongcross-borderChineseaccountsNonethelesslittledidthelaggardchasersknowthateveniftherewasanyofferrealtradinglevelscouldbe3-5ptshigherthanwhatwasonscreensuchasinthecaseofZHHFGRThatsaidasyieldscontinuedtocompresstowardfundinghurdlelevelsweenvisagethatvaluationsaredriftingawayfromfundamentalsAnditremainstobeseenhowlongwilltherallysustainamidtheexpectedflurryofprimarysupplyinthecomingweekOverallwesawonshoreRMactivelylookingforCQNANAGZINFU26sSOEspacetightened3-5bpswhileAT1sperformedstablewithlightvolumebalancedflowsLastTradingDaysTopMoversTopPerformersPriceChangeTopUnderperformersPriceChangeCHJMAO478PERP915107PCGIHD412082326870-40AGILE512051726578105CHJMAO6PERP813-28CHINSC73804092462899BTSDF558102424861-18CENCHI71404242353289ZHHFGR414PERP867-17SINOCE3804262588978ZHLGHD834041523140-15MacroNewsRecap宏观新闻回顾MacroUSstockmarketswereweakyesterdaySP-116Dow-102andNasdaq-147downduetoDecstrongADPdataTheUSDecADPwas235kandhigherthanexpectationof182ktheresilientlabormarketcausesworryaboutinflationandfurtherinterestratehikeTheUStreasuryyieldsmovementweredivergentthatshorttermyieldsedgedupwhilelongtermyieldsdownThe251030yieldscurvesreached445390371378respectivelyDeskanalystcomments分析员市场观点AsiaCreditoutlook2023-AfterdawnExecutiveSummaryAhorrendousyearin2022ACIGandACHYpostedreturnof-123and-199respectivelyAsiaHYcorpsnotablyunderperformedthoseofotherEMswhileAsianIGcorpsout-performedTheweaksentimentalsoledtosignificantdropinnewissuanceThegrossissuancein2022inAsiaexJPdecreased52toUSD1651bnthelowestsince2014Indeedthenetissuancein2022wasnegativeUSD1052bn2022isthefirstnegativenetissuanceyearforAsiaexJPUSDbondmarketsince2008LookingaheadweexpecttheAsianexJPcreditmarkettoperformnotablybetterafter2successiveyearsofmarkedcorrectionWeenvisagecreditfundamentalstoreboundoffthelowswiththere-openingofChinaIntermsofvaluationweseeasufficientmarginofsafetyingeneralforAsianexJPcreditsatcurrentlevelsWealsoseemoresupportivetechnicalasfundflowsituationturnedmorefavourableTheUSratehikesandthestrengthofUSDwilllikelybemoderatingandtheseshouldbemoresupportiveforEMstoperformThatsaidweshouldbeawareofnear-termvolatilityresultingfromthespikeinCOVIDcasesanddeathtollresultingfromthereopeningofChinaincludingHKandMacauthenon-consensual26Jan2023viewontheUSTratehikeswhichwillremainsensitivetodatasuchasCPINFPandglobaleconomicoutlookCMBIresearchexpectsamildrecessionintheUSeconomystartingfrom2Q23Underthisbackdropourpicksare-AMCsHRINTH425PERPHRINTH5525CCAMCL44PERPCCAMCL437525GRWALL395PERPAT1sBCHINA36PERPICBCAS358PERPDBSSP33PERPUOBSP3875PERPSHINFN5875PERPKBANK5275PERPKTBTB44PERPCarrentalsCARINCandEHICARWepreferCARINCdespiteitshighercashpricegivenCARINCsmoreresilienceoperatingperformanceChinesepropertiesCHJMAOCSCHCNDALWANGRNCHHPDLFLNGFORSEAZENVNKRLEandYLLGSPCorpperpsPCORPM46PerpUPLLIN525PerpNWDEVL615PerpandNWSZF575PerpOurpicksareonperpswithresethighcouponstep-upaswellaschanceofbuy-backtenderofferLGFVsPrefershort-datedbondsfromstrongerregionssuchasSHUGRP4323HKIQCL39923HZCONI31523andYWSOAO31523MacaugamingConvictionisloweraftertherecentstrongperformanceWepreferMPELsandSTCITYswithintheMacaugamingsectorSEAsiacommoditiesandrenewablesOurpicksareGRNKENINDYIJ82525SAKAEI44524VEDLNsespeciallyshort-datedandsecuredVEDLNssuchasVEDLN23ssecuredVEDLN24and25TMTsShort-datedyieldplaysthroughbustedCBsOurpicksarePDD025andXIAOMI027BothPDDandXiaomiwereinnetcashpositionasatSep2236Jan2023Table1SummaryofourpicksNextCallSectorTickerBondsPriceYTMYTCYTPPutdateHRINTH425PERP775-137-30Sep25HRINTH5501162595676---AMCsCCAMCL44PERP911-68-11Mar26CCAMCL43752596660---GRWALL395PERP934-80-31Jul24BCHINA36PERP961-53-4Mar25ICBCAS358PERP955-52-23Sep25DBSSP33PERP931-65-27Fed25AT1sUOBSP3875PERP975-66-19Oct23SHINFN5875PERP984-75-13Aug23KBANK5275PERP952-69-14Oct25KTBTB44PERP891-80-25Mar26CARINC975033124897196---CarrentalsEHICAR775111424689309---EHICAR70092126617228---CHJMAO728-92684-109---CSCHCN611-673391-458---GRNCH888-99063-109---VNKRLE792-99462-78---PropertiesDALWAN895-982161-185---FUTLANFTLNHD673-979134-232---HPDLF813-878212-237---LNGFOR682-82190-95---YLLGSP837-99390-111---NWSZF575PERP971103--31Jan24NWDEVL615PERP92497--16Mar25CorpPerpsPCORPM46PERP922208--19Jul23UPLLIN525PERP714211--27Feb25SHUGRP430508239731261---HKIQCL399042723989822---LGFVHZCONI31507302398681---YWSOAO315081123978708---MPEL836-92683-96---MacaugamingSTCITY734-869112-125---GRNKEN841-99777-88---SEAsiaINDYIJ82510222598987---commoditiesandSAKAEI44505052495978---renewablesVEDLN638-949235-386---PDD0120125949--581Dec23TMTsXIAOMI0121727823--6717Dec25SourcesBloombergSeeourreporthttpswwwcmbicomhkarticle7705htmllangen46Jan2023ChinapropertiesChineseauthoritiesextendmeasuretosupportpropertysectorvialoweringdroppingminimummortgagerateCitiesareallowedtolowerordroptheminimummortgageinterestrateforthefirsthomepurchaseifthenewhomepricesfallforthreemonthsconsecutivelybothonaMoMandYoYbasisStartingfromDec22thelocalgovernmentscouldperformassessmentonthehomepriceseveryquarterendieSep-Nov22pricesfortheDec22assessmentDec22-Feb23pricesforMar23assessmentetcIfthenewhomepricesdonotdropforthreeconsecutivemonthsminimumnationalinterestrateshouldbeappliedforthefirsthomemortgageThisisanotherpolicyinitiativestimulatingthedemandsideforresidentialpropertyafterthepersonalincometaxrefundannouncedbyMOFandPBOCloweredpersonalhousingprovidentloaninterestratebothon30Sep22BasedonthestatisticreleasedbyNBSinNov2251outof70majorcitiesrecordedMoMdecreaseinnewhomepricesinwhichtier123citiesrecordMoMincreasedecreasedecreaserespectivelyDuringSep22toNov2238outof70citiesmeetthecriteriatolowerordroptheminimummortgagerateWefilteredseventier2citiesfrom38qualifiedcitiesandlistedtop3developersbycontractsalesin11M22ineachcityCityProvinceTop3developersDalianLiaoningPolyDevelopmentDalianWandaChinaOverseasShenyangLiaoningLongforVankeChinaResourcesTianjinTianjinChinaOverseasSino-OceanVankeWuhanHubeiWuhanUrbanConstructionHubeiUnitedInvestmentVankeWuxiJiangsuWuxiXinchengGroupCDInternationalVankeXiamenFujianXiamenITGCDInternationalPolyDevelopmentZhengzhouHenanChinaResourcesVankePolyDevelopmentNoteBoldnamesareourrecommendeddevelopersinour2023OutlookSourceNBSChinaIndexAcademyCRICWeviewthenewmeasureisamoredynamicapproachtowardsthemortgageratesettingtakingintoaccountofcontractedsalesandhomepricestrendatcitylevelandthisshallbringmorenoisetotier23citiesNonethelessweviewtimelycompletionanddeliveriestrackrecordismorevitalinrevivingthehomesalesviaregainingtheconfidenceofpotentialnewbuyertowardsthepropertymarketOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPricedSizeUSDIssueRatingIssuerGuarantorTenorCouponYieldmnMSFSOFRAsianDevelopmentBank35003yr425AaaAAAAAAMS29SOFRAsianDevelopmentBank200010yr40AaaAAAAAAMS60AirportAuthorityHKAA5003yr4875T70-AA-AirportAuthorityHKAA10005yr475T90-AA-AirportAuthorityHKAA7007yr4875T115-AA-AirportAuthorityHKAA80010yr4875T125-AA-56Jan2023OffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPipelineIssueRatingIssuerGuarantorCurrencySizeUSDmnTenorPricingMSFChengduSinoFrenchEcologicalParkInvestmentUSD-3yr65---DevelopmentWooriBankUSD-35yr----NewsandmarketcolorRegardingonshoreprimaryissuancestherewere64creditbondsissuedyesterdaywithanamountofRMB66bnAsforMonth-to-date172creditbondswereissuedwithatotalamountofRMB158bnraisedrepresentinga15yoydecreaseFOSUNIFosunInternationalannouncedtosellequityinterestinfourminingandsteelcompaniesforRMB67bnGRNLGRGreenlandschedulesinterestpaymentforRMB1bn21Lvdi0121Lvdi02bondson9JanJIAYUAJiayuanfurtherextendstheexpirationdeadlineinrelationtoitsexchangeofferandconsentsolicitationto6Feb23LPKRIJMoodyschangedLippoKarawacisratingoutlooktostablefrompositiveandaffirmedB3ratingsRPVINMediareportedthatThailandPTTrestartstalkstoacquire49stakeinReNewPowerssolarassetswithuptoUSD175bnSHIMAOShanghaiShimaogotone-yearextensionforRMB500mndue9Jan23notes20HushimaoMTN001CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedFixedIncomeDepartmentTel8523761886785236576291fiscmbicomhkCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankAuthorCertificationTheauthorwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheauthorcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatauthorinthisreportBesidestheauthorconfirmsthatneithertheauthornorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportImportantDisclosuresCMBIGMoritsaffiliateshaveinvestmentbankingrelationshipwiththeissuerscoveredinthisreportinpreceding12monthsTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecial66Jan2023requirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMandoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestDisclaimerCMBIGMoritsaffiliateshaveinvestmentbankingrelationshipwiththeissuerscoveredinthisreportinpreceding12monthsForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereport7