研究报告全文：FixedIncomeCreditCommentary5Jan2023CMBICreditCommentaryFixedIncomeDailyMarketUpdate固定收益部市场日报MarketsfocusedonnewissuanceswithstrongsentimentthismorningLongtermINDONHKINTLandEIBKORwerebetterbuyingwith10-20bpsGlennKoCFA高志和tightenedwhile3-yearnoteswerestableLGFVSOEandAT1werealso85236576235boostedwithdemandfromonshoreglennkocmbicomhkChinapropertiesThegovernmentisplanningfornewmeasurestoeasetheliquidityofsomeofthetoo-big-to-faildeveloperSeebelowCyrenaNgCPA吳蒨瑩IndonesianminingGovernmentproposestoimplementzeroroyaltytariff85239000801cyrenangcmbicomhktodownstreamcoalproductsSeebelowTradingdeskcomments交易台市场观点YesterdayChinaIGspacehadaveryfirmsessionamidawaveofprimaryJerryWang王世超dealskickedofftheyearFinancialsspreadsbroadlytightened5-10bpswith85237618919AMCsoutperformedagainCCAMCL23stightened20-25bpswhilejerrywangcmbicomhkHRINTHORIEAScurveswere5-15bpstighterBankcapitalandleasingbondswerestableT2benchmarksCCBsweretraded2-5bpstighterTMTsweresignificantlyboostedbytheBBGnewsthatChineseauthoritiesapprovedAntGroupsplantoraiseUSD105bnforitsconsumerunitsignalingthetechfirmssubstantialprogressinmeetingregulatoryrequirementsBABABIDUTENCNTclosed5-10bpstighterJDMEITUALENOVOfirmedup15-25bpsInIGpropertiesLNGFORsweretraded2-4ptshigherbuoyedbytheChinasadditionalsupportmeasuresonqualitydevelopersMediareportedtheFinancialStabilityandDevelopmentCommitteeFSDChasdirectedthebankingandsecuritiesregulatorslatelastweektohelpshoreupthebalancesheetsofsomesystemicallyimportantdeveloperswherethelistedbuildersshallneedtohaverobustfinancialsandcleandebtrepaymentrecordsInChinaHYspacepropertybondsallhadanupbeatsessionamidtalksthatregulatorsplannedtoeasethethreeredlinerequirementsSINOCE24-25snotablysurged7-85ptstoreachlow-70sandSINOCE26-30sgained4-6ptstocloseatmid-60sCHJMAOperpswere4-9ptshigherandFUTLANsFTLNHDsgained4-55ptsBeatennameCSCHCNsjumped6-75ptsonthenewsthataholderofitsdue-2024sconfirmedtoreceiveCSCs2amortizationpaymentonthebondsCIFIHGsCENCHIsCHINSCswereup1-3ptstostayrange-boundbetweenlow-30stomid-40sElsewhereGRNLHKPerpwere3ptslowerSFHOLDBTSDFdropped1-15ptsonthefrontendInindustrialspaceFOSUNIsEHICARsweretradedup25-55ptsInMacaugamingspaceSANLTDsSTCITYswerebid1-3ptshigherEx-ChinaHYswererelativelypeacefulwithattentiondistractedtoChinacreditInIndianHYsAZUPOEswereup15ptswhilstVEDLNswereunchangedto05pthigherInIndonesianHYslow-cashnamesLPKRIJsLMIRTscontinuedtobebidupanother1-2ptseachElsewhereGLPSPswereup1-2ptswhilebondsfromitssubsidiaryGLPCHIsgained25-5ptsOntheprimarysideHKandIndonesiaeachissuedUSD3bnofferingin4and3tranchesrespectivelyKEXIMpricedPLEASEREADTHEAUTHORCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGECMBIFixedIncomefiscmbicomhk15Jan2023USD1bn3YatT85USD15bn5YatT120andUSD1bn10YatT145respectivelyTheLGFVSOEPerpAT1marketstartedoffthedayslightlyquieterthanexpectedperhapsasattentionturnedtoprimarypricingandthepropertyspacebutmarketwastedlittletimetoturnintofull-onbuyingmodeagainintheafternoonasdurationandyieldweresoughtafterbyChineseclientsonandoffshorewithstructuredflowsinvolvedaswellIntheLGFVspacethedemandwasexpressedinbeatenhighyielding824s25spaperslikeHKIQCLandGZINFUandinqualitylongdatedissuesAmidathinofferliquiditymarkswereallovertheplaceagainwithsomeissuessqueezing1-3ptshighertoacertainextentreflectingthelackofactualsellingdepthin4Q22whensentimentwasextremelyfragilethatnobodydaredtobuyanythingandbidsmarksweresimplyonafreefallWealsosawactivetwowayflowsonweakernameslikeGSHIAVZHHFGRYUNINV25sonthedayElsewhereSOEPerpsAT1sweregenerallychasedafteracrossthecurveaswellasvaluationscontinuedtogrindtowardsmid-5forhighgradenamesWesawChineseaccountsbasicallyone-waybuyinginqualitySOEsHAOHUASINOPECNOOCpapersweresqueezedto3-6bpstighterOverallsentimentwasquiteupbeatwithapinchofFOMOwhilstsupplywaslimitedtofront-endpapersfromregionalaccountswhotriedtooffloadrisksintothisrecoveryfrom2H22sweaknessLastTradingDaysTopMoversTopPerformersPriceChangeTopUnderperformersPriceChangeCHJMAO478PERP80892GRNLHK1021PERP555-28SINOCE2701132568785GERGHK458052123959-26CSCHCN910092472174FRESHK414102626798-13SINOCE607302472370SFHOLD278022030837-12CSCHCN906262476169BTSDF558102424878-09MacroNewsRecap宏观新闻回顾MacroUSstockmarketsreboundedyesterdaySP075Dow040andNasdaq069keptstableafterDecFOMCminuteswasreleasedTheminutesshowthatallFedofficialsatthemeetingagreedtoslowtheaggressiveinterestratehikepacewhilethehighlevelratesmaylastforaperiodThelongtermUStreasuryyieldscontinuedtodownyesterdayand251030yieldscurvesbullflattenedto436385369381respectivelyDeskanalystcomments分析员市场观点ChinapropertiesGovernmentisplanningfornewmeasurestoeasetheliquidityofsomeofthetoo-big-to-faildeveloperSubsequenttotheannouncementof16-measurebyPBOCandCBIRCand5-measurebyCSRCsupportingthepropertymarketspropertydevelopersareabletoobtaincreditlinesandconductshareplacementstofundconstructionandtorepaydebtsForinstanceVNKRLEGRNCHCOGARDLNGFORweregrantedwithcreditlineswhileCOGARDandAGILEcompletedshareplacementsoffshoreItisreportedthatFinancialStabilityandDevelopmentCommitteetoldthebankingregulatorstosupportthebalancesheetsofsomeofthedeveloperswithsystemicimportanceInordertobeeligibleforthesupportthecompaniesneedtohaveunqualifiedauditopinionandnorecordofmajorviolationincludingnodefaultonpublicissueddebtThesupportmeasurescouldincludeequityfinancingandloansREITscreationandsupportindustryconsolidationWeviewdevelopersincludingCHJMAOCSCHCNDALWANGRNCHHPDLFLNGFORSEAZENVNKRLEandYLLGSPareinbetterpositiontosurviveunderthebackdropofbetterfundingchannelonshoreandoffshore25Jan2023andrelativelysmalloffshorematuritiesin2023On4Jan23HPDLFredeemeditsUSD250mn8CBdue23infullwhileCHJMAOalsocompletedfullredemptionofitsUSD500mn4perpsdemonstratingtheirliquidityandrepaymentabilityTakingthemarketsharesintermsofcontractedsalesintoconsiderationamongourpickswebelieveCHJMAOGRNCHLNGFORSEAZENandVNKRLEcouldbeincludedinthelistofsystemicimportanceandbenefitfromanotherwaveoffinancialstimulusTheyranked9th4th12th13th2ndrespectivelyintermsofcontractedsalesfor11M22amongthedevelopersunderourradarOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPricedIssueRatingIssuerGuarantorSizeUSDmnTenorCouponYieldMSFExport-ImportBankKorea10003yr4875T85Aa2AAAA-Export-ImportBankKorea15005yr50T120Aa2AAAA-Export-ImportBankKorea100010yr5125T145Aa2AAAA-HongKongSARGovernment5003yr4375T35-AAAA-HongKongSARGovernment10005yr45T70-AAAA-HongKongSARGovernment100010yr4625T95-AAAA-HongKongSARGovernment50030yr525T145-AAAA-RepublicofIndonesia10005yr45548Baa2BBBBBBRepublicofIndonesia125010yr48551Baa2BBBBBBRepublicofIndonesia75030yr565575Baa2BBBBBBOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPipelineSizeUSDIssueRatingIssuerGuarantorCurrencyTenorPricingmnMSFNationalAustraliaBankUSD-335yrT100SOFR130Aa3AA--NationalAustraliaBankUSD-10yrT300Baa1BBBA-T105135AirportAuthorityHKAAUSD-35710yr-AA-160185NewsandmarketcolorRegardingonshoreprimaryissuancestherewere60creditbondsissuedyesterdaywithanamountofRMB47bnAsforMonth-to-date109creditbondswereissuedwithatotalamountofRMB92bnraisedrepresentinga11yoyincreaseAZUPOEMediareportedAzuresresults-extensionrequestpublishFY22resultsby31Mar23yettobeunanimouslyapprovedbylendersCHJMAOChinaJinmaocompletesfullredemptionofUSD500mn4seniorguaranteedperpsDALWANDalianWandaCommercialManagementcanceledRMB15bn20Wanda04bondsasthecompanyfailedtoresalethemGRNLGRGreenlandHoldingunitagreestosell52stakeinShanghaiGreenlandHotelManagementtoMinyounHospitalityforRMB624mnHPDLFHopsonDevelopmentfullyredeemeditsUSD250mnHPDLF8010623atmaturityHUAYNPHuayuanwithdrawnitsB1CFRbyMoodysforbusinessreasons35Jan2023INDONSPandFitchassignedBBBBBBratingforIndonesiasproposedseniorunsecurednotesJIAYUAJiayuanInternationalwinding-uppetitionhearingadjournedto1MarchSHIMAOMediareportedthatShimaoseeks18-monthmaturityextensionfortwice-rescheduledoriginallyRMB715mnABSTPHLMoodysdowngradedTimesChinaHoldingsratingstoCaCoutlooknegativeonhighlikelihoodofdefaultThecompanyannouncednon-paymentofinterestsonitssixUSDbondstofacilitateaholisticmanagementforthebondsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedFixedIncomeDepartmentTel8523761886785236576291fiscmbicomhkCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankAuthorCertificationTheauthorwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheauthorcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatauthorinthisreportBesidestheauthorconfirmsthatneithertheauthornorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMandoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestDisclaimerForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedto45Jan2023anyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereport5