研究报告全文：FixedIncomeCreditCommentary9Jan2023CMBICreditCommentaryFixedIncomeDailyMarketUpdate固定收益部市场日报MarketswasactiveandflowsskewedtobetterbuyingthismorningLastweeksnewissueswiden3-5bpsduetoUSTratesdownWesawdemandGlennKoCFA高志和onLGFVsectorwhileweakregionnamesweremoreonsellSOEPerps85236576235andAT1pricealsoslightlyedgedupglennkocmbicomhkChinaPolicyFurtherpolicyeasingtoboostgrowthSeebelowforcommentsfromoureconomicresearchCyrenaNgCPA吳蒨瑩Asiaex-JPUSDbondsissuanceNewissuanceamountdropped51885239000801cyrenangcmbicomhkyoyintotalandChinaLGFVissuesdecreased23yoyin2022SeebelowTradingdeskcomments交易台市场观点JerryWang王世超LastFridayChinaIGspaceperformedrelativelystableandbroadlytightened85237618919125bpsNewissuesEIBKORsHKINTLswereunchangedonthedayunderjerrywangcmbicomhkbalancedtwowaysaftertherallyFinancialsspacewaslargelyunchangedwithAMCscontinuedtobesqueezedunderbetterbuyingfromPBsHRINTHCCAMCLweretraded1-2ptshigheracrossthecurveBankcapitalpapersCNBGCMHIremainedunderbetterbuyingT2sbenchmarkCCB29-32stightenedanother3-12bpsInTMTsbenchmarksBABATENCNTshowedabitofprofittakingbutbondsarewellabsorbedandlevelswereunchangedwhileMETIUA25s30sloweredforanother1ptInIGpropertiesLNGFORsGEMDALswerebidup15-3ptsChinaHYsespeciallypropertybondsremainedstrongasonThursdayPBOCannouncedplanstolowerthemortgageratefor1sthomepurchasesinsomecitiesSINOCEsweretraded2-45ptshigherCHJMAOsFUTLANsFTLNHDswereup1-2ptsHigh-betanamesCOGARDsCSCHCNswereup1-25ptsexceptCSCHCN9121124wasmarkedup85ptstocloseatmid-70sinlinewithitsotherdue-2024sInlateAMsessionheadlinecameoutthatChinamayeaseThreeredlinestorelaxrestrictionsondeveloperborrowingGRNLGRsjumped25-85ptsCENCHIsweremarked4-6ptshigheratmid-40sAGILEsROADKGswerealsotraded1-3ptshighertoclosebetweenlow-50stomid-60sInindustrialspaceFOSUNI25-27sweretradedup3-6ptsFosunInternationalshallraiseRMB67bnUSD9722mnbysellingitsstakesinfoursteel-relatedcompaniesinlinewithaseriesofnon-coreassetsdisposalstomeetitsnear-termmaturitiesInMacaugamingspaceSANLTDsSTCITYswereindicated05-15ptshigherEx-ChinaHYwasmixedIndianHYswererathermutedexceptAZUPOEsVEDLNswereup05-1ptIndiantighterrenewablepaperswerestillchasedInIndonesiaINDONsBBBratedbySPandFitchwidened1-2bpsaftersomeRMHFstartedsellingnewissuesLMIRTsLPKRIJswereup1-15ptsIntheLGFVSOEPERPSAT1marketmarketremainedinriskonmodeoveralldespiteratescreepingupaheadofNFPamidFedtalksandstrongADPIJCdataasinvestorsremainedfondofdurationgivenlightexposureintotheyearOnnewissuefrontHKAApricedUSD3bnofferingin4tranchesPLEASEREADTHEAUTHORCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGECMBIFixedIncomefiscmbicomhk19Jan2023HKAA283033quicklyrallied15-20bpsbeforeretracingaround5bpsamidtwo-wayflowswhichskewedtoslightlybettersellingfromregionalclientsHKAA33sweretradingflatatT105levelafterasignificant20bpstighteningonstrongerdemandagainforthelongerdurationpapersLGFVsremainedprettymuchone-waybuyingfromChineseRMwithofferliquidityofnon-high-betanamesallbutdrainedMeanwhileAMPropPBaccountswithahigherriskappetitechasedafterweakernamesthatofferedyieldpick-up-suchasTLINVTandCQNANAElsewhereGXFING23wasmarked2ptslowerInSOEPerpsandChineseAT1sspacewesawmoreofferscomingoutacrossthecurveonbackofhigherratesandthefactthatvaluationhadgroundtofairlyrichlevelsespeciallywhenfundingcostsofthemajorinvestorbaseofthespacesweretakenintoaccountLastTradingDaysTopMoversTopPerformersPriceChangeTopUnderperformersPriceChangePINGRE314062325788101GXFING36111823894-21CSCHCN912112476486KNMIDI512100923930-20GRNLGR63409262552783JIAZHO12060523264-17GRNLGR57807032648482HRINT38042725930-12GRNLGR63403032650473FRESHK258030324930-11MacroNewsRecap宏观新闻回顾MacroUSstockmarketsreboundedlastonFridaySP228Dow213andNasdaq256roseupafterDecNFPdatareleasedTheUSDecNFPdatawas223kandhigherthantheexpectationof220kwhilelowerthan263kofpreviousmonthTheunemploymentratesurprisinglydecreasedto35from37ofNov22TheUStreasuryyieldsmovementwasdivergentonlastFridaythatshorttermyieldsedgedupwhilelongtermyieldsdownThe251030yieldscurvesreached424369355367respectivelyDeskanalystcomments分析员市场观点ChinaPolicyFurtherpolicyeasingtoboostgrowthChinahassentsignalsoffurthercreditlooseningforpropertysectorrecentlyashousingdemandremainedweakThepolicymakersencouragedhouseholdsandprivatebusinesstoincreasetheirborrowingsinordertoboosthousingsalesconsumptionandcapexThecentralgovernmentallowedlocalgovernmentfinancingvehiclestorollovertheirdebtforlongermaturityperiodsandlowerrateswhichwouldlowerdefaultrisksandcreditspreadsofLGFVbondsTheleadersshowedpro-businessandpragmaticattitudetowardsinternetsectorandprivateenterprisesLookingforwardChinawillmaintaineasingcreditconditionashousingmarketresumptionshouldbegradualandthereflationpressureshouldbemildAgradualresumptionwitheasingliquidityandmildreflationshouldbequitepositiveforChinasstockmarketespeciallywhenitsvaluationisattractiveChinahasfurtherloosenedcreditconditionforpropertysectorChinahassentsignalsoffurthercreditlooseningforpropertysectorrecentlyThepolicymakersencouragedbankstoexpandcreditsupplytopropertydevelopersinthewhitelistwithunqualifiedopinionsfromauditorsforthreeconsecutiveyearswithoutdefaultrecordsandsystematicallyimportantforfinancialsocialstabilityThecentralbankremovedthemortgageratefloorforfirst-timehomebuyersincitieswherehousingpricesexperiencedYoYandMoMdeclinesforatleastthreeconsecutivemonthsWeexpectadeclineofmortgageratesforqualifiedhomebuyersinmostcitiesaheadThepolicymakersmayfurthereasemortgagepolicyforsecond-homebuyersaheadtostimulatehousingsalesHousingmarketconditionshouldbeanimportantdriverformonetarypolicydynamicsIfhousingsalesremainweakthecentralbankwillcontinuetoloosencreditpolicywhichispositiveforthestockmarket29Jan2023ChinahasencouragedhouseholdsandprivatebusinessestoincreaseborrowingswhileallowingLGFVstorollovertheirdebtforlongerperiodswithlowerratesGuoShuqingGeneralSecretaryofthePBOCandChairmanofChinaBankingInsuranceRegulationCommitteeurgedfinancialinstitutionstoprovidemorefinancialservicestohouseholdsespeciallymigrantsincitiestoboosttheirdemandforhousingautosandservicesHealsocalledforstrongercreditsupplytoprivatebusinessinbothmanufacturingandservicesectorsinfutureChinawillcontinuetoloosenmortgagepolicyconsumercreditconditionandbusinessloansupplyinfutureGuoShuqingalsoindicatedtoallowlocalgovernmentfinancingvehiclestorollovertheirmatureddebtforlongerperiodswithlowerratesHowevertheMinistryofFinancevowedtocontroltheincreaseoflocalgovernmentcontingentdebtinfutureThosepoliciestendtoreducedefaultriskcreditspreadsofLGFVbondsChinahasshowedpro-businesspragmaticattitudetowardsinternetsectorandprivateenterprisesGuoShuqingsaidtherectificationoffinancialbusinessesof14onlineplatformsisclosetotheendindicatingpolicyuncertaintydeclinesforinternetplatformcompaniesChinesepolicymakersstartedtoencourageplatformcompaniestotakealeadindevelopmentabsorbinglaborsupplyandglobalcompetitionGuoalsovowedtofacilitatecreditpolicywasmoreinfavorofprivatefirmstosupporteffectivecreditgrowthandtoexpandtheiraccesstocapitalmarketfinancingPositiveimplicationforChinasstockmarketLookingforwardthehousingmarketresumptionshouldbegradualandthereflationpressureshouldbemildChinaislikelytomaintaineasingliquidityconditionandcontinuetoloosencreditsupplytoboostthegrowthAgradualeconomicresumptionwithmildreflationandeasingliquidityshouldbequitepositiveforChinasstockmarketespeciallywhenitsvaluationisattractiveClickhereforfullreportAsiaex-JPUSDbondsissuance518yoydropintotalandChinaLGFVissuesdecreased23yoyin2022In2022theAsiaex-JPUSDbondissuancedropped518yoytoUSD1651bnthegrossissuanceamountwasthelowestsince2014InDec22theissuanceamountfurthershrank825yoytomereUSD11bnIn2022newissuancefromChinafell612yoytoUSD674bnandwasthelargestdeclineamongregionsSpecificallyissuanceofChineseIGHYandNRdropped572906and166yoytoUSD517bnUSD36bnandUSD121bnrespectivelySourceDealogic39Jan2023LGFVwastheexceptionalsectorwithyoyissuancegrowthuntilNov22whilefinallyrecorded23yoydecreasein2022dueto602yoydeclineinDec22During2022LGFVnewissuesamountwasUSD259bnBycreditratingsIGHYandNRissuanceschanged-142695and173toUSD157bnUSD14bnandUSD88bnrespectivelyLGFVaccountedfor384oftotalissuancefromChinain2022increasedfrom153in2021InDec22theaverageyieldsofIGLGFVnewissuancewas775rosefromanaverageof265inDec2149Jan2023OffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPricedIssueRatingIssuerGuarantorSizeUSDmnTenorCouponYieldMSFNoOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPricedTodayOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPipelineIssueRatingIssuerGuarantorCurrencySizeUSDmnTenorPricingMSFMongoliaUSD----BBPhilippinesUSD-55105yrT155195Baa2BBBBBBPhilippinesUSD-25yr595Baa2BBBBBBPOSCOUSD-3510yrT225255295Baa1A--SunnyOpticalTechnologyUSD-35yrT235Baa1--GroupNewsandmarketcolorRegardingonshoreprimaryissuancestherewere49creditbondsissuedonlastFridaywithanamountofRMB50bnAsforMonth-to-date225creditbondswereissuedwithatotalamountofRMB208bnraisedrepresentinga158yoydecreaseMediareportedthatChinaplanstoeaserestrictionsunderthreeredlinespolicytoallowdeveloperstoaddmoreleveragetoresolvetheirdebtwoesJackMaistogiveupthecontrolofAntGroupAGILEMediareportedthatAgilesaysaimstocuremissed2JancouponofitsUSD500mnAGILE575010225within30-daygraceperiodHPDLFHopsonDevelopmentcompletedfullredemptionofUSD250mn8CBsdue2023atmaturityJIAYUAJiayuanfurtherextendsexchangeofferexpirationdeadlineto6Feb239thextensionLPKRIJMediareportedthatLippoKarawaciisworkingtosecurealoanfromIndonesianbanksforapotentialUSDbondrefinancingMPELSPaffirmedMelcoResortatBB-andremoveditfromCreditWatchwithnegativeoutlookREDPROMediareportedthatRedconearshiringHaitongforoffshorebondrestructuringRISSUNRiseSunRealEstateDevelopmentshareholdersapprovedproposalsonuptoRMB3bnprivateplacementSANLTDSPaffirmedSandsChinaatBBandremoveditfromCreditWatchwithnegativeoutlookSJMHOLFitchaffirmedSJMatBB-withnegativeoutlook59Jan2023STCITYSPaffirmedSandsChinaatBBandremoveditfromCreditWatchwithnegativeoutlookCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedFixedIncomeDepartmentTel8523761886785236576291fiscmbicomhkCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankAuthorCertificationTheauthorwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheauthorcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatauthorinthisreportBesidestheauthorconfirmsthatneithertheauthornorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMandoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestDisclaimerForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthi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