研究报告全文：9Jan2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchEconomicPerspectivesChinaPolicyFurtherpolicyeasingtoboostgrowthChinahassentsignalsoffurthercreditlooseningforpropertysectorrecentlyasBingnanYEPhDhousingdemandremainedweakThepolicymakersencouragedhouseholdsand85237618967privatebusinesstoincreasetheirborrowingsinordertoboosthousingsalesyebingnancmbicomhkconsumptionandcapexThecentralgovernmentallowedlocalgovernmentfinancingvehiclestorollovertheirdebtforlongermaturityperiodsandlowerrateswhichwouldlowerdefaultrisksandcreditspreadsofLGFVbondsTheleadersshowedpro-businessandpragmaticattitudetowardsinternetsectorandprivate50enterprisesLookingforwardChinawillmaintaineasingcreditconditionas4540housingmarketresumptionshouldbegradualandthereflationpressureshould35bemildAgradualresumptionwitheasingliquidityandmildreflationshouldbe30quitepositiveforChinasstockmarketespeciallywhenitsvaluationisattractive2520ChinahasfurtherloosenedcreditconditionforpropertysectorChina1510hassentsignalsoffurthercreditlooseningforpropertysectorrecentlyThe20192020202120222023policymakersencouragedbankstoexpandcreditsupplytopropertyPBOC7DrepoBanks7Drepodevelopersinthewhitelistwithunqualifiedopinionsfromauditorsforthree1YLPR5YLPRconsecutiveyearswithoutdefaultrecordsandsystematicallyimportantforSourceWindCMBIGMfinancialsocialstabilityThecentralbankremovedthemortgageratefloorforfirst-timehomebuyersincitieswherehousingpricesexperiencedYoYand2119MoMdeclinesforatleastthreeconsecutivemonthsWeexpectadeclineof17mortgageratesforqualifiedhomebuyersinmostcitiesaheadThe15policymakersmayfurthereasemortgagepolicyforsecond-homebuyers13aheadtostimulatehousingsalesHousingmarketconditionshouldbean11importantdriverformonetarypolicydynamicsIfhousingsalesremainweak97thecentralbankwillcontinuetoloosencreditpolicywhichispositiveforthe5stockmarket20152016201720182019202020212022RRRforlargebanksChinahasencouragedhouseholdsandprivatebusinessestoincreaseRRRforSMbanksborrowingswhileallowingLGFVstorollovertheirdebtforlongerSourceWindCMBIGMperiodswithlowerratesGuoShuqingGeneralSecretaryofthePBOCandChairmanofChinaBankingInsuranceRegulationCommitteeurgedYoY313financialinstitutionstoprovidemorefinancialservicestohouseholdsespeciallymigrantsincitiestoboosttheirdemandforhousingautosand12servicesHealsocalledforstrongercreditsupplytoprivatebusinessinboth211manufacturingandservicesectorsinfutureChinawillcontinuetoloosen10mortgagepolicyconsumercreditconditionandbusinessloansupplyinfutureGuoShuqingalsoindicatedtoallowlocalgovernmentfinancingvehiclesto19rollovertheirmatureddebtforlongerperiodswithlowerratesHoweverthe8MinistryofFinancevowedtocontroltheincreaseoflocalgovernment07contingentdebtinfutureThosepoliciestendtoreducedefaultriskcredit201720182019202020212022spreadsofLGFVbonds1DShiborLHSM2YoYRHSSourceWindCMBIGMChinahasshowedpro-businesspragmaticattitudetowardsinternetsectorandprivateenterprisesGuoShuqingsaidtherectificationoffinancialbusinessesof14onlineplatformsisclosetotheendindicatingpolicyuncertaintydeclinesforinternetplatformcompaniesChinesepolicymakersstartedtoencourageplatformcompaniestotakealeadindevelopmentabsorbinglaborsupplyandglobalcompetitionGuoalsovowedtofacilitatecreditpolicywasmoreinfavorofprivatefirmstosupporteffectivecreditgrowthandtoexpandtheiraccesstocapitalmarketfinancingPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk9Jan2023PositiveimplicationforChinasstockmarketLookingforwardthehousingmarketresumptionshouldbegradualandthereflationpressureshouldbemildChinaislikelytomaintaineasingliquidityconditionandcontinuetoloosencreditsupplytoboostthegrowthAgradualeconomicresumptionwithmildreflationandeasingliquidityshouldbequitepositiveforChinasstockmarketespeciallywhenitsvaluationisattractivePLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE29Jan2023Figure1ChinasEconomicTargetsinRecentYears202020212022F2023FTargetActualTargetActualTargetForecast9M2022TargetFForecastGDPYoY-23683552730551CPIYoY352530143020203022Urbanincrementalemploymentmn90119110127110120100110100Urbanunemploymentrate605255515555555555GeneralfiscalrevenueYoY-53-398110738-15-666565GeneralfiscalexpenditureYoY382918038462625050GeneralfiscaldeficitRmbbn376003760035700357003370033700372383970039700GeneralfiscaldefecitasofGDP363732312828-3131LocalgovtspecialbondquotaRmbbn375003750036500365003650036500-4000040000LocalgovtspecialbondquotaasofGDP363733323030-3131inlinewithinlinewithinlinewithNotablynorminalnorminalnorminalM2YoYhigherthan10190125118110GDPGDPGDPlastyeargrowthgrowthgrowthSourceWindCMBIGMFigure2RetailsalesFAIandExportsFigure3VAIOandServiceOutputYoY2YCAGRfor2021YoY2YCAGRfor2021301020510005102010301520192020202120222019202020212022RetailsalesFAIExportsofgoodsVAIOServiceoutputSourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMFigure4NewMortgageHousingSalesFigure5PropertyDevelopmentInvestmentFundingYoYYoY2YCAGRfor20211604030110201060010102030404050906020182019202020212022140201720182019202020212022TotalfundsDomesticloansNewmortgageHousingcontractsalesvalueDepositadvancepaymentIndividualmortgagefundSourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE3MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk9Jan2023Figure6GrowthofHousingSalesbyCitiesFigure7ChinaPropertyInvestmentasofGDPYoY2YCAGRfor2021ofGDPoftotalpopulation1101476901274727010705086863066104642106206030200120032004200620072009201120122014201520172018202020222023202520262028203050199970PropertydevelopmentinvestmentexcludinglandpurchaseLHS2017201820192020202120222023Populationaged15-64RHSTier1citiesTier2citiesTier3citiesSourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMFigure8UrbanizationPaceandHousingSalesFigure9LandRevenueandInfrastructureYoYYoYInvestment3050YoYYoY602520405030201040203015020101010100052010100203052030403040102017201820192020202120222014201620172001200220032004200620072008200920112012201320182019202120221999LocalgovernmentlandrevenueLHSIncrementalurbanpopulationLHSGFASoldRHSInfrastructureinvestmentRHSSourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMFigure10MobilityIndicatorsinTier-1CitiesFigure11HouseholdSavingRatesConfidenceindex7DMAmn7DMAindex4656194518404454173542163052154025142038501315123648111034105460903220202021202220233044DailytrafficcongestionindexLHS201720182019202020212022DailysubwaypassengerflowRHSHouseholdsavingrateConfidenceaboutincomeSourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE49Jan2023Figure12MoneyMarketFundingRatesFigure13CoreCPIgrowthand2YT-bondRates50445340352301252001510120182019202020212022202320162017201820192020202120222023YueBao3MShibor6MNCDCoreCPIGrowth2YTreasuryYieldSourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMFigure14BondMarketRatesFigure15LoanRatesaveragerate76566055545034522017201820192020202120222023407YT-bond7YAAACorporatebond20162017201820192020202120227YAACorporatebondLoanCorporateloanMortgageloanSourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMFigure16GrowthofCreditMoneySupplyFigure17TotalSocialFinancingCSI300IndexYoYYoYindex1717600016550015155000141345001213400011350010113000982500792000201620172018201920202021202220162017201820192020202120222023TSFoutstandingRMBloanM2TSFoutstandingLHSCSI300indexRHSSourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE59Jan2023Figure18MarginTradinginAShareMarketFigure19EMVolatilityNorthboundInflowsRmbbnRmbbnindexRmbbndailyaverage30018060625055515042005045315012040210019035500301060252502033010015415001052018201920202021202220232017201820192020202120222023MoMchangeofmarginbalanceLHSEMETFvolatilityindexLHSDailynetbuyingonmarginRHSNorthboundinflowtoAsharesRHSSourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE69Jan2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE7