研究报告全文：MN9Jan2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdateJDcomJDUSExpectinglimitedadditionalfinancialimpactfrompandemicspreadin4Q22TargetPriceUS7860WeexpectlimitedincrementalfinancialimpactfrompandemicspreadonJDcomPreviousTPUS7950JD4Q22financialresultsPandemicpreventionpolicyandfirst-waveimpactsUpDownside189onfulfilmentallhappenedin4Q22whichtestedJDlogisticsnetworksCurrentPriceUS6610robustnessbutthepositivedriveronGMVisthefrontloadedsalesgeneratedfromtheSpringFestivalshoppingfestivalwhichwaslaunchedinend-Dec2022ChinaInternetduetotheearlySpringFestivalin2023AlthoughastrongconsumptionrecoverySaiyiHECFAwillstilltaketimeJDsmarginexpansionremainsontrackdrivenbystringent85239161739costcontrolandstreamliningofloss-makingnewbusinessTakingintoaccounthesaiyicmbicomhkthenear-termimpactwetrimourDCF-basedtargetpriceby1toUS786translatinginto268x2023EPEnon-GAAPMaintainBUYYeTAOfranktaocmbicomhkRecoveryinYoYrevenuegrowthinsightThereaccelerationofJDsrevenuegrowthwilldependontheimpactofmacroenvironmentonconsumerWentaoLUsentimentwhichweexpectwilltaketimeduetofollowingfactors1luwentaocmbicomhkconsumerdemandfromlower-tiercitieswilllikelybeadverselyimpactedfromStockDatathepandemicinfectionsduringSpringfestival2businessadjustmentforMktCapUSmn1055751generalmerchandisecategoryisstillongoingandJDmayseeongoinghighAvg3mthstoUSmn506baseeffectfromJingxibusinessin1Q23and3JDisenhancingitsmerchant52wHighLowUS78293666supportpolicytosupportlong-termbusinessdevelopmentandrecoveryinTotalIssuedSharesmn15972SourceFactSetadvertisingbudgetofmerchantsandbrandscouldtaketimeFor4Q22weforecasttotalrevenueofRMB2977bnup79YoY88YoYinourShareholdingStructurepreviousforecastRichardQiangdongLiu138MaxSmartLimitied133StringentcostcontrolcouldhelpmarginexpansionintheneartermWeSourceHKExforecastJDsnon-GAAPnetincometoreacharoundRMB56bnin4Q22SharePerformancetranslatingintoanon-GAAPnetmarginof19indicating06ppYoYAbsoluteRelativeexpansionaidedbystringentcostcontrolwhichisunchangedcomparedto1-mth117200ourpreviousforecastSteadymarginexpansiontrendcouldsustainin1H233-mth248330inourviewascostcontrolwillremaininplaceandinvestmentsforlong-term6-mth21105businessdevelopmentwillonlytakeplacewhenfulfilmentoperationsreturnSourceFactSettonormalconditionsIncreaseinrevenuecontributionfromthird-party12-mthPricePerformanceplatformbusinesscouldaidmarginexpansionoverthelongrunWeforecastJDsnon-GAAPnetmargintoexpandto252733in202220232024Efrom18in2021Lower-tiercityexpansionomni-channelretailandthird-partybusinessremainlong-termrevenuegrowthdriversJDremainscommittedtoinvestinginlower-tiercityexpansionomni-channelretailtodriveitslong-termrevenuegrowthThestrategicmovetoenhanceplatformgovernanceandSourceFactSetincorporatemorequalitymerchantscouldsupportplatformbusinessdevelopmentoverthelongrunEarningsSummaryYE31DecFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenueRMBmn745802951592104849911979881324848YoYgrowth293276102143106NetprofitRMBmn49405235596107684248779367382AdjustednetprofitRMBmn168276172071261341324074440963AdjNPConsensusRMBmn264485331998424745EPSAdjustedRMB10561075163620292761ConsensusEPSRMB10561075163518192399PEx128na656284192PBx3138312723SourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk9Jan2023ChangesinforecastandvaluationFigure1JDforecastrevisionCurrentPreviousChangeRMBbn2022E2023E2024E2022E2023E2024E2022E2023E2024ERevenue104851198013248105101206013343-02-07-07GrossProfit148217532014148517672032-02-08-08OperatingProfit199313458199317464-01-12-13Non-GAAPnetprofit261324441262328446-01-11-12GrossMargin14114615214114615200ppt00ppt00pptOperatingMargin19263519263500ppt00ppt00pptNon-GAAPnetmargin25273325273300ppt00ppt00pptSourceCMBIGMestimatesFigure2CMBIGMestimatesvsBloombergconsensusCurrentConsensusDiffRMBbn2022E2023E2024E2022E2023E2024E2022E2023E2024ERevenue10485119801324810485120491372400-06-35GrossProfit148217532014147317352011061102Non-GAAPnetprofit261324441264332425-12-2438GrossMargin14114615214114414701ppt02ppt06pptNon-GAAPnetmargin25273325283100ppt-01ppt02pptSourceBloombergCMBIGMestimatesDCF-basedtargetpriceofUS786OurtargetpriceisUS786basedonDCFvaluationmethodologyOurtargetpricetranslatesinto268x2023EPEnon-GAAPOurpreviousDCF-basedtargetpriceofUS795alsotranslatesinto268x2023EPEnon-GAAPPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE29Jan2023Figure3Changeofe-commercestockpricevsbenchmarkoverthepastyearPDDJDBABAVIPSKWEBHSTECHindex100806040200-20-40-60-80Jan-22Feb-22Mar-22Apr-22May-22Jun-22Jul-22Aug-22Sep-22Oct-22Nov-22Dec-22Jan-23SourceBloombergCMBIGMNotechangebasedonstockpriceat31December2021marketcloseFigure4Changeofe-commercestockpricevsbenchmarkoverthepasttwomonthsPDDJDBABAVIPSKWEBHSTECHindex140120100806040200-20Nov-22Nov-22Nov-22Nov-22Nov-22Dec-22Dec-22Dec-22Dec-22Jan-23SourceBloombergCMBIGMNotechangebasedonstockpriceat31October2022marketcloseFigure5E-commercecompstableCompaniesTickerPricePExPSxPEGxLC2022E2023E2024E2022E2023E2024E2022EAlibabaGroupBABAUS104614312511322191836JDcomJDUS65927724118807060505PinduoduoPDDUS95428925721464514307VIPShopVIPSUS1561071029706060618Average20418115325211816SourceBloombergCMBIGMestimatesNote1dataasat5January2023marketclose2AlibabaisusingFY23-25EMachyear-enddataforcomparison3databasedonnon-GAAPmeasuresPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE39Jan2023FinancialSummaryINCOMESTATEMENT2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecRMBmnRevenue576888745802951592104849911979881324848Costofgoodssold49246763669482252590030610227021123408Grossprofit84421109108129067148192175287201439Operatingexpenses7542696766124926128261143998155670Sellingexpense222342715638743393194372747032Adminexpense5490640911562110091221913248RDexpense146191614916332167761797019210Others330834705158288611577008276179Operatingprofit8995123434141199323128845770Othergainslosses537532556590112800ShareoflossesprofitsofassociatesJV173842914918230800EBIT12632491911367164963128845770Interestincome106116281213181915201176Pre-taxprofit13693508192581146772976844594Incometax180214821887478759548919Aftertaxprofit1189049337446798902381535675Minorityinterest2977592488610631063Discontinuedoperations000000Others2716800Netprofit12185494053560107682487836738Adjustednetprofit107501682817207261343240744096BALANCESHEET2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecRMBmnCurrentassets139095234801299672329349365110410395Cashequivalents36971860857076786454108909143160Restrictedcash294144345926592659265926Accountreceivables6191711211900172361969321778Inventories579325893375601764648686095413Prepayment5630707711456189981899818998Othercurrentassets2943071161124023124271124725125121Non-currentassets120629187487196835208629221280233891PPE206542259732944447385738970000Right-of-useassets86441548419987199871998719987Deferredincometax815331111111111111111InvestmentinJVsassos355765850163222632226322263222Intangibles411064635837583758375837Goodwill66441090412433124331243312433Othernon-currentassets449217300561300613006130061300Totalassets259724422288496507537978586390644286Currentliabilities140017174017221636235913251774264893Short-termborrowings004368436843684368Accountpayables90428106818140484157862170917181592Taxpayable201630292568256825682568Othercurrentliabilities197232862133083299823278835233Leaseliabilities319355146665666566656665Accruedexpenses246563003534469344693446934469Non-currentliabilities190822665228087381283932740975Long-termborrowings10052125319386194272062622274Deferredincome194316181297129712971297Othernon-currentliabilities70881250317404174041740417404Totalliabilities159099200669249723274041291101305868Sharecapital000000Capitalsurplus90676153357208912215288221762228152Retainedearnings11913374180107683564672385Otherreserves19057139001212121212121212Totalshareholdersequity97820204677210124227268258620301749Minorityinterest28041694336661366613666136661Totalequityandliabilities259724422288496507537970586382644278PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE49Jan2023CASHFLOW2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecRMBmnOperatingProfitbeforetaxation13693508192581146772976844594Depreciationamortization582860686232498253195937Taxpaid180214821887478759548919Changeinworkingcapital7343186781894828825552085Others2803153921588726175377453Netcashfromoperations247814254442301224213922651151InvestingCapitalexpenditure3013934019057167761797018548Acquisitionofsubsidiariesinvestments3578178807181916000Netproceedsfromdisposalofshort-term663435379126934000investmentsOthers7845042209000Netcashfrominvesting253495781174248167761797018548FinancingNetborrowings4057478429751004111981648Proceedsfromshareissues66306628822478000Others000000Netcashfromfinancing257271072195031004111981648NetchangeincashCashatthebeginningoftheyear3750239912905197669392380114834Exchangedifference40651981382000Cashattheendoftheyear39912905197669392380114834149085GROWTH2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecRevenue249293276102143106Grossprofit280292183148183149Operatingprofitna3726653813570463EBITna2894nana897463Netprofitna3055nana1310477Adjnetprofit210756523519240361PROFITABILITY2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecGrossprofitmargin146146136141146152Operatingmargin161704192635Adjnetprofitmargin192318252733ReturnonequityROE1403271749102131GEARINGLIQUIDITYACTIVITIES2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecNetdebttoequityx030403030304Currentratiox101314141515Receivableturnoverdays553336515657Inventoryturnoverdays378335299308291296Payableturnoverdays632565549605587573VALUATION2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecPE242128na656284192PEdiluted247131na674292198PB303138312723SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesNoteThecalculationofnetcashincludesfinancialassetsPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE59Jan2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBISwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE6