研究报告全文：MN9Jan2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdateSANYInternational631HKExpansiontonewenergyequipmentsectorwithanambitioustargetTargetPriceHK1320WebelievetheexpansiontolithiumbatteryequipmentmanufacturingwillservePreviousTPHK1320asanimportantgrowthdriverforSANYIWebelieve1theexistingrelationshipUpDownside610withlithiumbatterymanufacturersand2thecapabilitytoproducein-houseCurrentPriceHK820componentswillenableSANYItobreaktheentrybarrierinthebatteryequipmentspaceandgainmarketshareoverthecomingyearsSANYIsetanChinaCapitalGoodsambitiousrevenuetargetofRMB3bnin2025EWehaveyettofactorinthisWayneFUNGCFApotentialcontributioninourmodelasweareawaitingfurtheroperatingdata85239000826ReiterateBUYwithTPofHK13223x2022EPEwaynefungcmbicomhkAcquisitionofSANYTechSANYIannouncedinlateDectheacquisitionofKatherineNG95interestinSANYTechlithiumbatteryequipmentmakerfromSANY85237618725GroupparentcompanyofSANYIforaconsiderationofRMB095Establishedkatherinengcmbicomhkin2021SANYTechisengagedinRDmanufacturingandsalesofnewenergybatteryequipmentInMay-Nov2022SANYTechnologyrecognizedStockDataMktCapHKmn259284revenueofRMB55mnAsofendNov2022SANYTechnologyhadnetAvg3mthstoHKmn75liabilitiesofRMB416mn52wHighLowHK888644MasteredthecoretechnologyOnthebackofthecapabilitytomastertheTotalIssuedSharesmn31620SourceFactSetcoretechnologySANYTechhascompletedthefirstproductionlinefor3GWhlithiumbatterywithanestimatedvalueofRMB300mnAll34typesofShareholdingStructureequipmentoftheproductionlinearein-housedevelopedcoveringfrontmiddleSanyHeavyEquipment677InvestmentsCompanyandbacksectionSANYTechcurrentlyhas300RDpersonnelandtheFreefloat323numberisexpectedtoincreaseby30YoYin2023ESANYTechbelievesSourceHKExthattheannualoutputperproductionlinecanreach5GWhgoingforwardSharePerformanceEstablishedrelationshipwithbatterymanufacturersGiventhatAbsoluteRelativeelectrificationisthekeydirectionSANYGroupincludingthesubsidiarieshas1-mth38-39continuedtoincreasetheprocurementofbatteriestosupportthefast-growing3-mth96-59demandfornewenergymachineryandheavy-dutytrucksOntheotherhand6-mth-1117SourceFactSetSANYIhasbeensupplyingroboticsproductstosomeleadingbatterymakersWebelieveSANYIsbusinessrelationshipwiththebatterymakerswillmakeit12-mthPricePerformancelessdifficulttopromotethebatteryequipmentproductsAmbitiousgrowthtargetThedeliveryofthe3GWhproductionlinewillgenerateRMB300mnrevenuein2023Ewhichwillpotentiallyenhanceour2023Erevenueforecastby15SANYItargetstoachieveRMB3bnrevenuein2025ESANYIbelievesthateveniftheASPis10-20belowtheindustrylevelthegrossmargincanstillbemaintainedat30-40giventheproductioncostadvantageSourceFactSetEarningsSummaryYE31DecFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenueRMBmn736410195152931840321739YoYgrowth302384500203181AdjustednetprofitRMBmn1045110867165531991823266EPSAdjustedRMB034035053063074ConsensusEPSRMBnana050061074PEx11317713711497PBx1526232017Yield3517232732ROE140152177186189Netgearing233183190225293SourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesNoteNetcashforvenetgearingPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk9Jan2023Figure1ChinalithiumbatteryproductionvolumeProductionvolumeGWh706050403020100JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec2019202020212022SourceChinaIndustryTechnologyInnovationStrategicAllianceforElectricVehicleCMBIGMFigure2WindingmachineFigure3FormationgradingmachineSourceCompanyCMBIGMSourceCompanyCMBIGMFigure4ElectrolyteinjectionmachineFigure5ModulepackingmachineSourceCompanyCMBIGMSourceCompanyCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE29Jan2023Figure6MixingmachineFigure7SlittingmachineSourceCompanyCMBIGMSourceCompanyCMBIGMFigure8CoatingmachineFigure9StackingmachineSourceCompanyCMBIGMSourceCompanyCMBIGMFigure10OperatingassumptionsforSANYIRMBmn20182019202020212022E2023E2024ERevenueRoadheader1079140812491834260029173124CombinedcoalminingunitsCCMU966107316401733285932883683Small-sizeportmachinery1305154717982459336939424533Large-sizeportmachinery551686720840134416672000Miningtrucks883889521512275237775048Aftersalesservice42855460370698810871196Robot--4001150138017252156Total44175656736210234152931840321739GrowthYoYRoadheader538305-11346841812271CombinedcoalminingunitsCCMU268011152857650150120Small-sizeportmachinery453185162368370170150Large-sizeportmachinery61324550167600240200Miningtrucks285134091454588820372336Aftersalesservice67929488171400100100Robot---1875200250250Total780281302390494203181GrossmarginBlendedgrossmargin289295276235239237233SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesMajorriskfactors1weaknessinminingactivities2developmentofnewproductsbelowexpectationand3reboundofrawmaterialcostsPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE39Jan2023FinancialSummaryINCOMESTATEMENT2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecRMBmnRevenue5656736410195152931840321739Costofgoodssold398754037805116421404816676Grossprofit166919612390365143555063Operatingexpenses103011371620235528163304Sellingexpense38843056785610311217Adminexpense6437071053149917852087Operatingprofit4584637377499021065Otherincome342237391489589696Otherexpense4311465565Othergainslosses121257347306368435ShareoflossesprofitsofassociatesJV000000EBITDA134615351756236827853175Depreciation249249249323344351EBIT109712861507204524412824Interestincome583651576170Interestexpense85132120130130123NetInterestincomeexpense279669736953Pre-taxprofit107011901438197223722771Incometax148139129256308360Aftertaxprofit92210521309171520642411Minorityinterest2650607284Netprofit92010451259165519922327Adjustednetprofit86510451087165519922327Grossdividends338408385513617721BALANCESHEET2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecRMBmnCurrentassets103381201614217173711920623558Cashequivalents11039411349164523303703Accountreceivables263432884272553263677690Inventories143818212529385140015320Prepayment615359585585585585STbankdeposits2021212121FinancialassetsatFVTPL327640243680368036803680Othercurrentassets126915831782205722232560Non-currentassets520954486568674567016450PPE241325913314351835013277Deferredincometax348296287287287287Goodwill113011301130113011301130Othernon-currentassets131714321838181117841757Totalassets155461746420785241162590830009Currentliabilities642179389170111701141113718Short-termborrowings251226451687168716871787Accountpayables183228934422642266638871Taxpayable253197185185185185Othercurrentliabilities182422052875287528752875Non-currentliabilities198016672832283228322832Long-termborrowings7474931767176717671767Othernon-currentliabilities123211741065106510651065Totalliabilities8401960512002140021424316551Totalshareholdersequity71327839870199721145013160Minorityinterest142082142214299Totalequityandliabilities155461746420785241162590830009PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE49Jan2023CASHFLOW2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecRMBmnOperatingProfitbeforetaxation107011901438197223722771Depreciationamortization249249249323344351Taxpaid100108129256308360Changeinworkingcapital43105475858910771Others3753661110736953Netcashfromoperations8011070923125315672043InvestingCapitalexpenditure216334944500300100Others2095313648576170Netcashfrominvesting231164729644323930FinancingDividendpaid321394408385513617Netborrowings85132120130130123Proceedsfromshareissues70300000Others186310530100100Netcashfromfinancing1527602227514643640NetchangeincashCashatthebeginningoftheyear10701103941134916452330Exchangedifference16178000Cashattheendoftheyear11039411349164523303703GROWTH2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecRevenue281302384500203181Grossprofit286175219528193163Operatingprofit8801059217203181EBITDA426140144348176140EBIT524173172357194157Netprofit532136205315203168Adjnetprofit111520840523203168PROFITABILITY2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecGrossprofitmargin295266234239237233Operatingmargin816372494949EBITDAmargin238209172155151146Adjnetprofitmargin153142107108108107ReturnonequityROE136140152177186189GEARINGLIQUIDITYACTIVITIES2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecNetdebttoequityx020202020203Currentratiox161516161717Receivableturnoverdays153614681353117011801180Inventoryturnoverdays136111011017100010201020Payableturnoverdays167115961710170017001700VALUATION2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecPE9811317713711497PB131526232017Divyield373517232732SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesNoteThecalculationofnetcashincludesfinancialassetsPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE59Jan2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBISwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE6