研究报告全文：MN11Jan2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdateSunnyOptical2382HKShipmentweaknesslikelytopersistinto1Q23EMaintainHOLDTargetPriceHK9630SunnyOpticalreportedDecHLSHCMshipmentwith4029YoYdeclinevsPreviousTPHK10230-26-23inNovbelowourexpectationsmainlyduetoAndroidinventoryUpDownside07destockingandordercorrectionafterasoftholidayseasonInadditionVLSCurrentPriceHK9565shipmentdeceleratedto1YoYinDecvs47YoYinNovOurbelow-consensusEPS108belowinFY2223EmainlyreflectedourconcernsonChinaTechnologycontinuedshipmentmarginpressureinto1H23EDespitepotentialupsideinAlexNGiPhoneHLSARVRandautomodulesin2023Eweexpecthighsalesexposure85239000881toAndroidclients75ofsaleswillremainanoverhanginneartermWealexngcmbicomhktrimmedFY22-24EEPSby3-7toreflectslowerdemandrecoveryFor2H22EweestimaterevNPtodecline1444YoYTradingat342x241xFY2223ELilyYANGPhDPEwethinkthestockisfairlyvaluedMaintainHOLDandloweredSOTP-85239163716lilyyangcmbicomhkbasedTPtoHK963HanqingLIWorse-than-expectedHLSHCMshipmentinDecExpectnear-termlihanqingcmbicomhkordercorrectionaftersoftholidayseasonSunnypostedDecHLSHCMStockDatashipmentof724mn369mn-40-29YoYvs-26-23inJulFY22MktCapHKmn1049281HLSHCMshipmentreached1193mn517mn-17-23YoYvsfull-yearAvg3mthstoHKmn865guidance-15-20YoYOverallwebelieveAndroidongoingdestocking52wHighLowHK225406755andApplespotentialordercutwillremainanoverhangintheneartermTotalIssuedSharesmn10970SourceFactSetWhileSunnysiPhoneHLSbusinessisgrowingitssalescontribution6offull-yearshipmentwillnotbecomemajorgrowthdriveratthisstageShareholdingStructureSunXuLtd355AutolensmomentumfadedinDecPositiveonautocammoduleandJPMorganChaseCo49ARVRVLSshipmentinDecwas49mnunit14YoY-34MoMSourceHKExbelowmarketexpectationswhileFY22shipmentcameinat789mn16SharePerformanceYoYin-linewithguidanceof10-15YoYasautodemandisgraduallyAbsoluteRelativerecoveringin2H22LookingaheadwearepositiveonautolensASPupside1-mth-107-167onspecupgradein2H23EandmgmtguidedforRMB10bnrevenuefor3-mth293436-mth-178-162autocameramoduleonLiDARAU-HUDorderwinsForARVRmgmtSourceFactSetguided50YoYrevenuegrowthforVRARsegmentin202212-mthPricePerformanceOurFY22-24EEPSare8-14belowconsensusMaintainHOLDWhilewemaintainourpositiveviewonSunnysindustryleadershipandproductroadmapwebelieveinventorydestockingandhighexposuretohandsetsegment79ofsalesvs8forauto-relatedwillremaintheoverhangforthestockWecutFY22-24EEPSby3-7toreflectslowerdemandrecoveryWethinkthestockisfairlyvaluedat342x241xFY2223EPEMaintainHOLDwithnewSOTP-basedTPofHK963230xFY23EPESourceFactSetEarningsSummaryRelatedReportsYE31DecFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24E1SoftHLSHCMinAugStillRevenueRMBmn3800237497321363632441303awaitingturningpoint13Sep2022YoYgrowth0413143130137NetprofitRMBmn49503506112704538339464172ShipmentguidanceloweredasYoYgrowth23222466418211expectedAwaitingmarketrecovery17Aug2022EPSReportedRMB447457243345417ConsensusEPSRMB000457271376486PEx255383342241199PBx7492393530Yield0605060810ROE335268123156165Netgearing46161212215306SourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk11Jan2023FocusChartsFigure1SunnyOpticalrevenuetrendFigure2SunnyOpticalGPMtrendSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure3SunnyHCMshipmenttrendFigure4SunnyHLSshipmenttrendSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure5Sunnynext-genhandsetcameraproductsFigure6SunnyopportunitiesinvehiclecamerasSourceCounterpointCMBIGMestimatesSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE211Jan2023EarningsRevisionFigure7CMBIGMearningsrevisionsNewOldChangeRMBmnFY22EFY23EFY24EFY22EFY23EFY24EFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenue321363632441303342533914144853-6-7-8Grossprofit649776799003677781919622-4-6-6Operatingprofit337745915533346349035855-2-6-5Netprofit265637654558273140354836-3-7-6EPSRMB243345417250369443-3-7-6Grossmargin20221121819820921504ppt02ppt03pptOperatingmargin10512613410112513104ppt01ppt03pptNetmargin831041108010310803ppt01ppt03pptSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure8CMBIGMestimatesvsconsensusCMBIGMConsensusDiffRMBmnFY22EFY23EFY24EFY22EFY23EFY24EFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenue321363632441303330633784743861-3-4-6Grossprofit6497767990036817827510142-5-7-11Operatingprofit337745915533316143365434762Netprofit265637654558302241785239-12-10-13EPSRMB243345417271376486-10-8-14Grossmargin202211218206219231-04ppt-07ppt-13pptOperatingmargin1051261349611512409ppt12ppt1pptNetmargin8310411091110119-09ppt-07ppt-09pptSourceBloombergCMBIGMestimatesFigure9PLforecastRMBmnFY20FY211H222H22EFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenue38002374971697215164321363632441303YoY04-13-144-141-143130137Costofsales29304287611344912190256392864632300Grossprofit8698873635222974649776799003GPM229233208196202211218YoY12204-288-215-256182172SGA10321032601500110210531156ofrev-27-28-35-33-34-29-28RD2499264214681289275726523015ofrev-66-70-87-85-86-73-73Othergainloss698252698252537394-Operatingprofit5877585117981579337745915533OPM155156106104105126134YoY223-04-463-370-423360205Netprofit4882499313581298265637654558NPM128133808683104110YoY22323-495-437-468418211SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE311Jan2023Figure10MajorassumptionsFY20FY21FY22EFY23EFY24EShipmentvolumemnunitOpticalComponentsHandsetlenssets15301440119312471371YoY14-6-17510Vehiclelenssets56687993111YoY1221161820OptoelectronicProductsHandsetcameramodules593674517554609YoY1014-23710Otheroptoelectronic3Dsensing41595173106YoY-1845-144545OpticalInstrumentsMicroscopicinstruments195258320352387YoY-132241010RevenueRMBmnOpticalComponents9181877694551159913582OptoelectronicProducts2849428334223242438627347Opticalinstruments326387357339373TotalRevenue3800237497321363632441303YoY04-13-143130137GrossMargin229233202211218OpticalComponents428395347350350Optoelectronicproducts126137104112119Opticalinstruments392451452455455SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE411Jan2023ValuationMaintainHOLDwithnewTPofHK963WemaintainHOLDwithnewTPofHK963Wederivedour12-monthTPfromSOTPvaluationmethodologyandourTPisbasedonweighted-averagetargetPEmultipleof232xFY23EEPSinordertoreflect1Sunnysdiversificationinmultiplebusinesseswithdifferentgrowthprofilesand2visibilityofproductupcyclesacrossdifferentsegmentsWeassign15xPEtoitsCCMbusinesstoreflectitsChinaNo1positionproductupcycleandadvancedtechnologycapacityWeassign35xPEforitsvehiclelensbusinesstoreflectthehigh-marginandhigh-growthindustrynatureofvehiclelens25CAGRFY20-23EandSunnysNo1globalmarketshareWeapplya25xPEtoitshandsetlenssegmentgivensecularupgradetrendandcontinuedsharegainsfrompeersFigure11SunnyOpticalSOTPvaluationBusinesssegmentofFY23EProfitFY23EEPSRMBTargetPECameramodules35612315xHandsetlenses44815425xVehiclelenses17706135xOthers1900625xTotalRMBImpliedPE345232xTPHK963SourcesCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure12PeersvaluationMarketUpCapPriceTPDownPExPBxROECompanyTickerRatingUSmnLCLC-sideFY22EFY23EFY22EFY23EFY22EFY23ESunnyOptical2382HKHold13435956596313422413935123156Qtech1478HKBuy7805156920098111055103Cowell1415HKNR14211322NANA1761303528222246Truly732HKNR547135NANA------Catcher2474TTNR416317750NANA9816208088349Largan3008TTNR9551218000NANA1221611918155119Lite-on2301TTNR51286610NANA108992019190197Primax4915TTNR8585700NANA93871515166169O-film002456CHNR2345488NANA--3237350128Average164141222180112SourceBloombergCMBIGMestimatesFigure1312MforwardPEbandFigure1412MforwardPBbandSourceBloombergCMBIGMestimatesSourceBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE511Jan2023FinancialSummaryINCOMESTATEMENT2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecRMBmnRevenue378493800237497321363632441303Costofgoodssold300982930428761256392864632300Grossprofit775186988736649776799003Sellingexpense279313274285291330Adminexpense650719758817763826RDexpense220924992642275726523015Others205698789747618702Operatingprofit480658775851337745915533ShareoflossesprofitsofassociatesJV6019202020NetInterestincomeexpense250224230240264291Pre-taxprofit455056535640315743475263Incometax531703579452513621Minorityinterest286868496984Netprofit401949505061270438344642Netdividends623799974518734889BALANCESHEET2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecRMBmnCurrentassets224462563027989254983299433062Cashequivalents1917284256057123787311407Accountreceivables963082127448597391988052Inventories514657835482294864704149STbankdeposits212381112111211121112FinancialassetsatFVTPL566384808314831483148314Othercurrentassets697428282828Non-currentassets8247980910785119951297013651PPE65677513830395501049711144Othernon-currentassets168022952481244524732507Totalassets306933543838774374934596546714Currentliabilities12630134111187384061377810775Short-termborrowings111920711539153915391539Accountpayables113221073398696428117808751Othercurrentliabilities5622922315493211201886825649Non-currentliabilities533652016005600560056005Long-termborrowings00700700700700Othernon-currentliabilities533652015305530553055305Totalliabilities179671861217879144111978416780Sharecapital105105105105105105Otherreserves124481649220483226212565129320Totalshareholdersequity127261682620895230822618129934Minorityinterest173229307356425508Totalequityandliabilities306933543838774374934596546714PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE611Jan2023CASHFLOW2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecRMBmnOperatingProfitbeforetaxation455056435640315743475263Depreciationamortization122715701638175320532353Changeinworkingcapital14771152005691396438Others361168499202256339Netcashfromoperations466271606979527647487714InvestingCapitalexpenditure276022712498300030003000Others79637055400000Netcashfrominvesting355659762902300030003000FinancingDividendpaid623796974518734889Netborrowings38210170000Sharerepurchases1701510000Others2662912215240264291Netcashfromfinancing144122212417589991180NetchangeincashCashatthebeginningoftheyear225419172842560571237873Exchangedifference2378358000Cashattheendoftheyear1917284256057123787311407GROWTH2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecRevenue4600413143130137Grossprofit57812204256182172Operatingprofit56222304423360205Netprofit60023222466418211PROFITABILITY2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecGrossprofitmargin205229233202211218Operatingmargin127155156105126134ReturnonequityROE365335268123156165GEARINGLIQUIDITYACTIVITIES2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecNetdebttoequityx010002020203Currentratiox181924302431Receivableturnoverdays765857762762762762Inventoryturnoverdays498681681600600600Payableturnoverdays111513741374116011601160VALUATION2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecPE240255383342241199PB747492393530Divyield060605060810EV127262168261208953230817261812299338EVSales030406070707SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesNoteThecalculationofnetcashincludesfinancialassetsPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE711Jan2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE8