研究报告全文：12Jan2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchSectorUpdateChinaConstructionMachineryPreferAWPtoexcavatorintheneartermOUTPERFORMMaintainWhatisnewThe24YoYdeclineinexcavatorsalesin2022fortheindustryChinaCapitalGoodsasawholeislargelyinlinewithourexpectationMeanwhileJiangsuHenglisscheduledproductionofexcavatorcylindersinJan2023drops20YoYlikelyWayneFungCFAdueto1thepandemicimpactand2baseeffectofCNYOnthebackof85239000826reopeningandeasingliquidityweexpectdemandforexcavatortopickupwaynefungcmbicomhkmoderatelyinFebMarandwemaintainourforecastof10YoYincreaseintheKatherineNgindustrydemandin2023EChina15export5WemaintainHOLDon85237618725SANYHeavyandHengliaswethinkthepotentialrecoveryisalreadyinthekatherinengcmbicomhkpriceWepreferaerialworkplatformAWPasweseemoreresilientgrowthtrenddrivenbywell-diversifieddownstreamapplicationsuchaspowergridinvestment5GspendingdatacenterconstructionaswellasmachineryreplacementOurkeyBUYcallsintheuniverseareZhejiangDinglipureAWPplayandZoomlion-HlowvaluationhighearningssensitivityBesideswecontinuetolikeSANYInternationalinthespaceofenergyequipmentExcavatorindustrysalesvolumeinDec2022dropped30YoYInChinamarketsalesvolumeinDecdeclined60YoYtoonly6151unitsaccordingtoCCMAWebelievethesharpdeclinewasduetothefront-loadeddemandforoldmodelsinNov3YoYasaresultoftheimplementationofNESIVforoff-roadmachinerystartinginDecInoverseasexportvolumegrew24YoYto10718unitsthehighestmonthlyvolumethisyearExportvolumehasexceededdomesticsalesforfourconsecutivemonthsWebelievetheresilientRelatedReports1SANYInternational631HKBUYgrowthwasdrivenbyminingactivitiesevidencedbythestrongutilizationExpansiontonewenergyhoursincoalproducingcountrieslikeIndonesiaForthefullyearin2022equipmentsectorwithanambitiousChinasexcavatorsalesdomesticexportdropped24YoYto261kunitstarget9Jan2023link2ChinaConstructionMachineryHenglisscheduledproductioninJan2023BasedonourchecksHenglisHDTSector2023outlookproductionofhydrauliccylindersforexcavatordropped24YoYin2022DifficultiesmasteredarelargelyinlinewiththeindustrysexcavatorsalesdeclineInJan2023theopportunitieswon7Dec2022linkscheduledproductionisexpectedtodrop20YoYFormotorforAWPon3SANYInternational631HKBUYthecontraryproductionvolumesurged60YoYin2022InJan2023theKeytakeawaysfrompost-resultsscheduledproductionofmotorforbothAWPexcavatorisexpectedtocallandNDR2Nov2022linksurge90YoYwithgrowthlargelycomingfromAWPinourview4ZhejiangDingli603338CHBUY3Q22earnings36YoYbetterSectorcatalysts1stronger-than-expectedglobalminingactivities2thanexpectationRaiseearningsrecoveryofChinademandhelpedbymorefavourablepolicydirectiononandTPonmarginrecovery31Oct2022linkproperty3marginexpansiondrivenbythedeclineinfreightrateandlow5SANYHeavyIndustry600031CHsteelpriceHOLDAnotherweakquarterStillchallenging31Oct2022link6JiangsuHengli601100CHHOLDRevenuereboundedin3Q22Waitformoredatapointstoconfirmrecovery25Oct2022link7ChinaConstructionMachineryConsensusyettoreflecttheearningsdownsideDGSANYHeavyZoomlion-A19Apr2022linkPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk12Jan2023Figure1ChinaexcavatormonthlysalesFigure2ExcavatormonthlyexportvolumeUnitsUnits80000120007000010000600008000500004000060003000040002000020001000000JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec20222021202020192022202120202019201820172016201820172016SourceCCMACMBIGMSourceCCMACMBIGMFigure3KomatsuexcavatormonthlyutilisationFigure4HitachiexcavatormonthlyutilisationhoursinChinahoursinChina1601801401601401201201001008080606040402020JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec2018201920202021202220182019202020212022SourceKomatsuCMBIGMSourceHitachiCMBIGMFigure5KomatsuexcavatormonthlyutilisationFigure6KomatsuexcavatormonthlyutilisationhoursinNorthAmericahoursinIndonesia85220802007518070160651406012055100508045604040JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec202020212022202020212022SourceKomatsuCMBIGMSourceKomatsuCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE212Jan2023Figure7CMBIGMexcavatorsalesprojectionFigure8CMBIGMwheelloadersalesprojectionUnitsUnits4000001003000006035000080250000403000006020000020250000402000002015000001500000100000-20100000-2050000-4050000-400-600-60RegularreplacementNewdemandGrowthYoY-RHSReplacementNewdemandGrowthYoYSourceCCMAWindCMBIGMestimatesSourceCCMACMBIGMestimatesFigure9ExcavatorfleetsizeversusconstructionFigure10ConstructionFAIperunitofexcavatorinrelatedFAIoperationRMBmnUnitsRMBbnMoreFAIspendingsupported30byaunitofexcavator1800000400001600000350002514000003000020120000025000100000020000158000001500010LessFAIspendingsupported60000010000byaunitofexcavator4000005000520000000ExcavatorfleetsizeunitsInfrastructurePropertyCoalmetalminingFAIRMBbnConstructionFAIperunitofexcavatorRMBmnAverageSourceCCMAWindCMBIGMestimatesSourceCCMAwindCMBIGMestimatesNoteConstructionFAIinfrastructurepropertyminingFigure11HenglishydrauliccylindersmonthlyFigure12HenglislargemediumsizepumpproductionmonthlyproductionUnitsHydrauliccyclinderforexcavatorUnitsLargemediumsizepump10000090009000080008000070007000060006000050005000040004000030003000020000200010000100000Jul-22Jul-21Jul-21Jul-22Oct-20Oct-21Apr-22Oct-22Apr-21Jun-21Jan-22Jan-23Jan-21Jun-22Mar-21Mar-22Feb-21Feb-22Nov-20Dec-20Nov-21Dec-22Dec-21Nov-22Oct-20Apr-21Oct-21Apr-22Oct-22Sep-20Aug-21Sep-21Sep-22Aug-20Aug-22Jan-21Jan-22Jun-22Jun-21Jan-23May-21May-22Feb-21Mar-22Mar-21Feb-22Nov-20Dec-21Nov-22Dec-22Dec-20Nov-21Aug-20Sep-20Aug-21Sep-21Aug-22Sep-22May-21May-22ActualproductionProductionplanActualproductionProductionplanSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE312Jan2023Figure13HenglislargemediumsizevalvemonthlyproductionFigure14HenglismotormonthlyproductionUnitsLargemediumsizevalveUnitsMotor70001800060001600050001400012000400010000300080002000600010004000020000Jul-21Jul-22Oct-20Apr-21Oct-21Apr-22Oct-22Jan-21Jun-21Jun-22Jan-23Jan-22Mar-21Feb-22Mar-22Feb-21Nov-20Dec-21Nov-22Dec-20Nov-21Dec-22Aug-20Sep-21Aug-22Sep-22Sep-20Aug-21May-22May-21Jul-21Jul-22Oct-20Apr-21Oct-21Apr-22Oct-22Jan-21Jan-22Jun-22Jun-21Jan-23Mar-22Mar-21Feb-21Feb-22Nov-20Dec-21Nov-22Dec-22Dec-20Nov-21Aug-20Sep-20Aug-21Sep-21Aug-22Sep-22May-21ActualproductionProductionplanMay-22ActualproductionProductionplanSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure15AWPmonthlysalesChinaexportFigure16CMBIGMAWPsalesprojectionUnitsUnits350003000004003000035025000025000300200000200002501500015000020010000150100000500010050000050JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec00201920202021202220182019202020212022E2023E2024ESourceCCMACMBIGMSourceCCMACMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE412Jan2023Figure17PeerscomptableTickerCompanyRatingPriceTPUpsideMarketcapPExPBxlocallocaldownsideUSmnFY22EFY23EFY22EFY23EcurrencycurrencyHKlisted631HKEquitySANYINTERNATIONALBUY820132061332013511222201157HKEquityZOOMLIONHEAVY-HBUY4075242967021078606052338HKEquityWEICHAIPOWER-HBUY11241260121349320315512113808HKEquitySINOTRUKHKLTDHOLD12581000-21444516811608081839HKEquityCIMCVEHICLES-HNR501--2096nananana564HKEquityZHENGZHOUCOAL-HNR747--289044360806HKlistedaverage1311011110Ashare000338CHEquityWEICHAIPOWER-AHOLD106811407134932231701312601100CHEquityJIANGSUHENGLI-AHOLD67155800-14132953463088169603338CHEquityZHEJIANGDINGLI-ABUY497271004337182091743631600031CHEquitySANYHEAVY-AHOLD16721470-12209703222422221000157CHEquityZOOMLIONHEAVY-AHOLD561600767021701370908000425CHEquityXCMG-ANR550--9597100901110000528CHEquityGUANGXILIUGONG-ANR595--17181261030707603638CHEquityYANTAIEDDIEPNR1490--18494763704138600761CHEquityANHUIHELICO-ANR1423--1555119971615603298CHEquityHANGCHAGROUP-ANR1837--23501581312522000951CHEquityCNHTCJINANT-ANR1578--27383291491413601717CHEquityZHENGZHOUCOAL-ANR1172--289080661411600582CHEquityTIANDI-ANR516--315392771009A-shareaverage2121632320OverseasCATUSEquityCATERPILLARINCNR2505--1303681811668877DEUSEquityDEERECONR4374--13045815714965536305JPEquityHITACHICONSTNR29390--4770878709096301JPEquityKOMATSULTDNR28895--2122489931110042670KSEquityDOOSANINFRACORENR77800--123571741009VOLVBSSEquityVOLVOAB-BNR1967--387361051112625Average1151133530HydrauliccomponentsPHUSEquityPARKERHANNIFINNR3105--3987016314941367012JPEquityKAWASAKIHVYINDNR28920--366410310209097242JPEquityKYBCORPNR34600--6724945nana6474JPEquityNACHI-FUJIKOSHINR36950--695737307066268JPEquityNABTESCOCORPNR34550--31562311831716Average1241101817AerialworkingplatformTEXUSEquityTEREXCORPNR457--3081111982923OSKUSEquityOSHKOSHCORPNR927--60642671432119LNRCNEquityLINAMARCORPNR633--289910079nanaPIGFPEquityHAULOTTEGROUPNR35--119na68105056345JPEquityAICHICORPNR7630--440100960707AverageexcludingHaulotte1451041514SourceBloombergCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesNoteBasedonCMBIearningsestimatesforstocksundercoveragePLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE512Jan2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE6