研究报告全文：MN12Jan2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdateAlibabaBABAUSLookingbeyondshort-termpandemicimpactTargetPriceUS15600Althoughpandemicimpactwillweighonrevenuegrowthrecoveryin1Q23PreviousTPUS15870AlibabaGroupBABAsChinaretailmarketplaceGMVgrowthshouldrecoverUpDownside408alongwithoverallconsumptionrecoveryaidedbyeconomicstimuluspolicyinCurrentPriceUS110832023inourviewPrudentcostcontrolandstrategicmovetodriveoperatingefficiencyimprovementarebearingfruitandthepotentialrecoveryinrevenueChinaInternetgrowthcouldfuelsteadyearningsgrowthin2023WeremainpositiveonSaiyiHECFABABAslong-termdevelopmentaidedbyinternationalexpansionandcloud85239161739businessLeveragingstrongsupplychaincapabilityandenhancingfulfilmenthesaiyicmbicomhkcapabilitythedevelopmentofinternationalcommercebusinessisontrackTheclearerregulatoryguidelinescouldaidsustainabledevelopmentofBABAsYeTAOfranktaocmbicomhkfintechbusinessarmFactoringinthepandemicimpactwetrimSOTP-basedTPby2toUS1560translatinginto179xFY24EPEnon-GAAPMarchWentaoLUyear-endReiterateBUYluwentaocmbicomhkPandemicbroughtshort-termimpactPandemicpreventionpolicyandSophieHUANGfirst-waveimpactin4Q22weighonrecoverytrajectoryofBABAsChinasophiehuangcmbicomhkretailmarketplaceGMVandcustomermanagementrevenueCMRgrowthThegapsbetweenGMVandCMRgrowtharelikelytowidengivenincreaseEasonXUinreturnrateWeestimateCMRtodecline94YoYin3QFY232QFY23easonxucmbicomhk-65WealsoforecastYoYrevenuegrowthforlocalconsumerservicesStockDatatoslowdownfrom21in2QFY23to10in3QFY23aslowbaseimpactMktCapUSmn3021335onrevenuecausedbyaggressivesubsidywhichprovidedcontra-revenueAvg3mthstoUSmn805maywearoffin3QFY23Howeverweareexpectingareaccelerationin52wHighLowUS137416315revenuegrowthforinternationalcommercesegmentwhichweareTotalIssuedSharesmn27261SourceFactSetforecasting7YoYrevenuegrowth2QFY234duetoeasingofdisturbingfactorssuchasVATimpactonAliExpressinEuropeeasingShareholdingStructureforeignexchangeheadwindonTrendyolbusinessaswellasmarginalSoftBank239SourceHKExeasingofcompetitioninSoutheastAsiamarketWeforecastBABAstotalrevenuetogrow1YoYtoRMB2448bnin3QFY23SharePerformanceAbsoluteRelativeRemainpositiveonlong-termdevelopmentprospectofcloud1-mth213263businessWeforecastAliCloudsrevenuetogrow6YoYtoRMB208bn3-mth364375in3QFY23Althoughoveralldemandrecoveryisstilllikelytotaketime6-mth-8309AlibabaCloudhasestablishedcomparativeadvantageintechnologicalSourceFactSetcapabilityandthemovetofocusmoreoncustomerexperiencecouldhelp12-mthPricePerformancedrivefasterrecoverywhenmacrorecoversinourviewEfficientcostcontrolcoulddrivesteadyEBITAgrowthBABAsstrategicmovestostreamlinenewbusinessesanddriveoperatingefficiencyimprovementacrossbusinesslinesarebearingfruitAlthoughtheYoYdeclineinCMRmaydragEBITAgrowthnarrowercombinedlossgeneratedfromTaobaoDealsTaocaicaiandFreshippocouldaidsolidEBITAgrowthFor3QFY23weforecastBABAstotaladjustedEBITAtogrow7YoYtoSourceFactSetRMB480bnandnon-GAAPnetincometoreachRMB453bnlargelyflatYoYEarningsSummaryYE31MarFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenueRMBmn7172898530628747699807941074759YoYgrowthna1892512196NetprofitRMBmn150578062249056542012015711312819AdjustednetprofitRMBmn17895401435150140860316429281785713EPSAdjustedRMB66225326522260856607ConsensusEPSRMB66225326483956266181PEx301463358169155ROEna655510197SourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk12Jan2023ChangesinforecastandvaluationFigure1AlibabaforecastrevisionCurrentPreviousChangeRMBbnFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenue87489808107488820987910833-08-07-08GrossProfit314935603901322836163965-25-15-16Non-GAAPnetprofit140916431786148216701824-50-16-21GrossMargin360363363366366366-06ppt-03ppt-03pptNon-GAAPnetmargin161168166168169168-07ppt-02ppt-02pptSourceCMBIGMestimatesFigure2CMBIGMestimatesvsconsensusCMBIGMConsensusDiffRMBbnFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenue87489808107488806982110771-07-01-02GrossProfit314935603901322236233994-23-17-23Adjustednetprofit1409164317861374161218442519-32GrossMargin360363363366369371-06ppt-06ppt-08pptAdjustednetmargin16116816615616417105ppt03ppt-05pptSourceBloombergCMBIGMestimatesValuationtargetpriceofUS1560perADSOurSOTP-basedtargetpriceisUS1560perADSandtranslatesinto179xFY24EPE1US1041perADSforBABAscorecommercebusinessexcludingcloudlocalconsumerservicesandCainiaobasedonaDCFvaluationWACCof117andterminalgrowthof22US254perADSforthecloudbusinessbasedona60xPSmultipleonFY23ErevenueThe60xPSmultipleislargelyinlinewiththatofcomparablepeersat59xfor2022E3US65perADSforCainiaobasedonthetransactioninthemostrecentroundoffinancingandAlibabas63shareholding4US52perADSforlocalconsumerservicesbasedona20xPSonFY23revenueThe20xPSimpliesadiscounttothecurrenttrading2022EPSof43xforMeituanasElemehasarelativelylowermarketshare5US149perADSforstrategicinvestmentwith30holdingdiscountFigure3AlibabaSOTPvaluationTargetValuationValuationperADSAsoftotalBusinessMethodPSUSmnUSvaluationCorebusinessex-cloudCainiaoandlocalconsumerservicesDCF2837901041667Lastroundfinancingvaluation63Cainiaoshareholding176646542PSbasedonLocalconsumerservicesFY23revenue20140595233PSbasedonAlibabaCloudFY23revenue6069236254163Marketvaluation30holdingdiscountappliedStrategicinvestmentstoallinvestment4051914995Total4252681560SourceCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE212Jan2023Figure4CloudcomputingpeersvaluationcompsCompaniesTickerPriceRevenuegrowthYoYPSxUS2022E2023E2024E2022E2023E2024EMicrosoftMSFTUS2289123101130837567GoogleGOOGUS8926397113484339SalesforceCRMUS1474173107133484338Average595448SourceBloombergCMBIGMNotedataasof11January2023Figure5FooddeliverypeersvaluationcompsCompaniesTickerRevenuegrowthYoYPSx2022E2023E2024E2022E2023E2024EMeituan3690HK147267248433427DoorDashDASHUS333221185292320DeliveryHeroDHERGR228246227141109JustEatTakeawayTKWYNA13881101090807Average241916SourceBloombergCMBIGMNotedataasof11January2023PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE312Jan2023FinancialSummaryINCOMESTATEMENT2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31MarRMBmnRevenuena7172898530628747699807941074759Costofgoodssoldna421205539450559852624766684622Grossprofitna296084313612314917356028390138Operatingexpensesna206406243974208982234410254181SGAexpensena136743151721142062160850174648RDexpensena5723655465559856277167710Othersna1242736788109351078911822Operatingprofitna8967869638105935121618135957Interestincomena72794157023324188278598Interestexpensena44764909524958856234Otherincomeexpensena758210523612368665911Pre-taxprofitna1655785955073568131426144233Incometaxna2927826815172883088536058Othersna69841434476101177013972Aftertaxprofitna1432844707948669112311122146Minorityinterestna729415170787378469135Netprofitna1505786224956542120157131282Adjustednetprofitna178954143515140860164293178571BALANCESHEET2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31MarRMBmnCurrentassetsna643360638535681270794790921080Cashequivalentsna321262189898244789343068456150Restrictedcashna3520737455374553745537455Prepaymentna124708145995133840149081162289FinancialassetsatFVTPLna162183265187265187265187265187Non-currentassetsna10468581057018109987611874941269461PPEna147412171806213722245802271336InvestmentinJVsassosna200189219642231485262707296132Intangiblesna7083359231104618124984144315Goodwillna292771269581269581269581269581FinancialassetsatFVTPLna237221223611223611223611223611Othernon-currentassetsna98432113147568606080964486Totalassetsna16902181695553178114719822842190541Currentliabilitiesna377358383784343636393765437730Short-termborrowingsna3606884191751023911220Taxpayablena2527521753162512717930649Othercurrentliabilitiesna87337817308202291532100301Accruedexpensesna261140271460236188264814295559Non-currentliabilitiesna229226229576205598210949217627Long-termborrowingsna3833538244382443824437407Deferredincomena31583490362240424429Othernon-currentliabilitiesna187733187842163732168663175792Totalliabilitiesna606584613360549234604714655357Sharecapitalna11111Capitalsurplusna394308410506518991552338587805Retainedearningsna554924563557620099740256871538Otherreservesna309015930233642336423364Totalshareholdersequityna946143958134111572712692311435980Minorityinterestna13749112405911618610834099204Totalequityandliabilitiesna16902181695553178114719822842190541PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE412Jan2023CASHFLOW2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31MarRMBmnOperatingProfitbeforetaxationna1655785955073568131426144233Depreciationamortizationna4790948065291413265241101Taxpaidna2927826815172883088536058Changeinworkingcapitalna502971815027763139030078Othersna272080109311233718339004Netcashfromoperationsna231786142759119320201766218358InvestingCapitalexpenditurena414503412437449045374Acquisitionofsubsidiariesinvestmentsna173515311543115431154Netproceedsfromdisposalofshort-termna114826106984000investmentsOthersna8618388181666916849368892Netcashfrominvestingna244194198592102219104551105420FinancingNetborrowingsna320080000Proceedsfromshareissuesna175109000Sharerepurchasesna77361225000Othersna132833333341064143Netcashfromfinancingna30082644493341064143NetchangeincashCashatthebeginningoftheyearna345982356469227353244789343068Exchangedifferencena71878834000Cashattheendoftheyearna356469227353244789343068456150GROWTH2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31MarRevenuenana1892512196Grossprofitnana590413196Operatingprofitnana223521148118Netprofitnana58792112593Adjnetprofitnana1981816687PROFITABILITY2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31MarGrossprofitmarginna413368360363363Operatingmarginna12582121124127Adjnetprofitmarginna249168161168166ReturnonequityROEnana655510197GEARINGLIQUIDITYACTIVITIES2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31MarNetdebttoequityxna0404040404Currentratioxna1717202021VALUATION2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31MarPEna301463358169155PEdilutedna306468362170156PBna4930181614PCFPSna24220917810496SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesNoteThecalculationofnetcashincludesfinancialassetsPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE512Jan2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBISwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE6