研究报告全文：FixedIncomeCreditCommentary13Jan2023CMBICreditCommentaryFixedIncomeDailyMarketUpdate固定收益部市场日报MarketswereabitcooldownthismorningcomparedtopreviousdaysNewissueICBCwidenedseveralbpswithcashpriceslightlydownSOELGFVGlennKoCFA高志和sectorswereoveralltwo-waybalanced85236576235glennkocmbicomhkDALWANSeebelowChinaEconomyChinasreflationriskremainslowSeebelowforCyrenaNgCPA吳蒨瑩commentsfromoureconomicresearch85239000801cyrenangcmbicomhkTradingdeskcomments交易台市场观点YesterdayChinaIGspaceopenedinacautioustoneasstreetawaitedforthecrucialCPIdataonThursdaynightOnprimarysidenewICBCAS3YJerryWang王世超FixedSOFRhadmixedperformanceasthefixedonewidenedby7bpsand85237618919SOFRonetightenedby10bpsIGflowsremainedfocusedonrecentnewjerrywangcmbicomhkissuesandHKINTLHKAAweretradedslightlytighterfor3bpsKorearecentnewissuesremainedratheractivewithEIBKORPOHANGtradedanother3-5bpstighterbyEODHYUELEopened5bpswiderbutendedupbacktounchangedChinafinancialsspacewerelargelystablewithAMCsshowedmoretwo-wayson29-31sSelectiveAMCleasingnamelikeCCAMCLICBCILtightened2-5bpsT2benchmarkCCBsgrounded1-4bpsfurthertighterTMTbenchmarksunderperformedamidbettersellingflowswithBABATENCNTcurvewidened2-3bpsBBB-technamesMEITUAXIAOMILENOVOcurvescontinuedtherecentmomentumtotighten7-10bpsInIGpropertiesDALWANsmovedup05-15ptswithits23s24sclosedat9795byEODrespectivelyMarketeyedDalianWandaCommercialcirculated12625-areaIPGandthenpricedat12375foritskeepwell-backedUSD400mn2YReg-SbondBa3BBbyMoodysFitchLNGFORswereunchangedto05pthigherChinaHYspaceopenedfirmandpropertybondsextendedpositivesentimentCOGARDsclosedunchangedto05ptlowerundersomeprofittakingflowsCOGARD23swerequotedat99100postonWednesdayitfurtherrepurchasedUSD2184mnofitsdue-2023sfromopenmarketSINOCEsclosed1-3ptshigherandFUTLANsFTLNHDswereup05-15ptsAmongbeatennamesCENCHIsnotablyplunged35-10ptsamidmediareportedCCREnotplanningtopay14Jan23USDcouponforitsdue-2025sontimebutwillstrivetocuremisswithingraceperiodHKnameslikeCPDEVFWDINSweretraded2-4ptshigherInindustrialspaceFOSUNIHONGQI24-26swerebidup05-15ptsMacaugamingnameslikeMGMCHIsMPELsdipped05ptOutsideChinaIndianHYVEDLNswereup05-25ptsagainafterhavinggained4-5ptsonWednesdayInIndonesianspaceLPKRIJsLMRTSPsweremarked1-35ptshigherafterLippoKarawaciunitstenderofferonWednesdayLPKRIJ25sand26swereindicatedat8789leveland8082levelonthedayrespectivelyPLEASEREADTHEAUTHORCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGECMBIFixedIncomefiscmbicomhk113Jan2023IntheLGFVSOEPerpAT1spacemarkethadanotherhecticdayFlowwisewewereseeingnewdeploymentbuyingflowsfromChineseNBRMasitfeltlikethereweresizeableinflowsWesawtheonshoreRMstryingtore-deployafterunderweighted2H22andtookoverthedriversseatinbuyingafterleveragedaccountshadlargelycompletedcashdeploymentwhileliftingofferssincenewyearMeanwhileinlightofmuchrichenedvaluationswecontinuedtoseeAMHFoffloadingintotherallyparticularlyinthelongendofseveralhigher-betaLGFVnamesinChongqingShandongHenceLGFVflowswerefairlybalancedinthemorningthenskewedtobetterbuyingintheafternoonElsewheresentimentonHenannamesinitiallyturnedweakerintolunchamidCENCHIsdropthenmorebuyersemergedafterthefirstclipofloosebondwastakenOverallitfeltlikemost24soreven25s26sLGFVswerealreadyseenascarrybondsbymanypeopleonthestreetaslongasthepaperscouldyield6tomaturityas23shadtightenedtolow-5OneunderpefromerwouldbeDFINVH725whichremainedheavilyofferedamidrecentnewsinYanchengSOEPerpsAT1sremainedverywellbiddespitetightlevelsthankstotheupbeatsentimentoverallAlthoughAT1sstartedtoseesomeloosebondscomingoutbeforeCPItheywerewellabsorbedbythemarketonthedayLastTradingDaysTopMoversTopPerformersPriceChangeTopUnderperformersPriceChangeCPDEV46501192682143CENCHI714042423560-100LMRTSP71406192482336CENCHI79110723434-73CCAMCL43412043780133CENCHI734052424413-35CHINSC71404192373929CENCHI765082723458-23SINOCE607302480928ROADKG7PERP557-22MacroNewsRecap宏观新闻回顾MacroUSstockmarketsralliedhigheryesterdaySP034Dow064andNasdaq064wereboostedbymoderatedinflationTheUSDecCPIdataissamewithmarketexpectationof65yoydecreasedfrom71yoyinNov22Newweeklyunemploymentclaimsis205klowerthanmarketforecastof215kwhilehave1kincrementcomparedtolastweekTheUStreasuryyieldswereoveralldownyesterdaythe251030yieldscurvesreached412353343356respectivelyDeskanalystcomments分析员市场观点DALWANChinaEconomyChinasreflationriskremainslowChinasCPIgrowthwasslightlybelowexpectationsinDecemberDespiteapick-upoffoodpricesamidwinterseasoncoreCPIgrowthwasstilllowat07amidweakconsumerdemandLookingforwardcoreCPIgrowthespeciallyinsomeserviceitemsmaymoderatelyriseafterreopeningHowevertheoverallreflationriskshouldbelowastheresumptionofdomesticdemandisgradualandoverseasdemandstartstosoftenBasedonexperiencesofJapanSouthKoreaChineseTaipeitheOmicronwaveshouldhavelimitedimpactonChinaslaborparticipationrateThereforeChinaislikelytomaintaineasingliquiditypolicytosupportgrowthThePBOCmaycontinuetoloosencreditpolicyunlesshousingsalesandreflationrisksignificantlyreboundCPIgrowthwasslightlybelowexpectationsTheYoYgrowthofconsumerpriceindexCPIincreasedfrom16inNovemberto18inDecemberslightlybelowmarketexpectationsFromMoMperspectiveCPIkeptunchangedinDecemberafterdropping02inNovemberByitemfreshvegetablesandfruitsseasonallyincreased7and47MoMincoldwinterwhilegasolineandmeatdropped61and46MoMamidglobalrecessionriskandfurtherweakeningofcateringserviceactivityinChinashortlyafterreopeningHoweverair213Jan2023ticketsmovieticketsandvehicleleasefeesrespectivelyincreased7758and38MoMastransportationandrecreationservicedemandrapidlyreboundedafterreopeningCoreCPIgrowthwaslowasconsumerdemandremainedweakCoreCPIslightlypickedup07YoYinDecemberafterrising06YoYinNovemberascoreconsumerexpendituresremainedweakPricesinclothingandfootwearrespectivelyrose05and02YoYassocialactivitiesneedsometimetoresumeUrbanhousingrentdropped07YoYasthemigrationflowdroppedduringthelatestepidemicandunemploymentpressureremainedhighfortheyouthThepriceofChinesemedicinerose31YoYasdemandsharplyincreasedduringthelatestepidemicPPIcontinuedtodeclinewithlessmagnitudePPIdropped07YoYinDecemberafterdecreasing13inNovemberTheshrinkageofYoYdeclineswasmainlyduetobaseeffectFromMoMperspectivePPIdropped05afterrising01aspricesofenergyandchemicalproductsdeclinedamidglobalrecessionriskHowevercoalpricesrose08MoMinDecemberasoverheatingdemandseasonallyincreasedinwinterMeanwhilepricesofferrousmetalsandnon-ferrousmetalsrespectivelyrose04and11MoMamidtemporarysupply-sidedisruptionsChinasreflationriskafterreopeningshouldbelowasdemandresumptionisgradualandsupply-sidedisruptionsaretemporaryWeexpecttheCPIgrowthtoslightlyrisefrom2in2022to22in2023and25in2024PPIisprojectedtodrop05in2023andincrease16in2024afterrising43in2022GrowthofGDPdeflatormaydeclinefrom27in2022to11in2023beforereboundingto21in2024TherearethreereasonsforthemildreflationFirsttheresumptionofdomesticdemandshouldbegradualandslowespeciallyinpropertyanddurablesChinesegovernmentisunlikelytoprovidesubstantialcashsubsidytohouseholdsTheoverheatingriskofdemandshouldbelowinChinaSecondoverseasdemandstartstosoftenwithrisingrecessionriskOverseassupplychainshouldfurtherresumetonormalChinasexportsofgoodsmaydropby35in2023ThirdlybasedonexperiencesofJapanSouthKoreaChineseTaipeiOmicronvirusismuchweakerandthelatestoutbreakshouldhavelimitedimpactonChinaslaborparticipationrateReflationmaybestronginsomeservicesectorslikeairtransportationtourismcateringandhotelafterthereopeningDemandforthoseserviceswillrapidlyreboundHoweversupplycapacityneedssometimetoresumeWeshouldseeupwardpressureonpricesinthesesectorsafterthereopeningClickhereforfullreportOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPricedSizeUSDIssueRatingIssuerGuarantorTenorCouponYieldmnMSFWandaProperties4002yr1112375Ba3-BBTaishanCityInvestmentCo120364d795795---LimitedHongkongXiangyuInvestment19035yr6767---OffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPipelineIssueRatingIssuerGuarantorCurrencySizeUSDmnTenorPricingMSF313Jan2023GoldenDragonMountainUSD-364d85---TradingCoLtdNewsandmarketcolorRegardingonshoreprimaryissuancestherewere139creditbondsissuedyesterdaywithanamountofRMB124bnAsforMonth-to-date644creditbondswereissuedwithatotalamountofRMB590bnraisedrepresentinga27yoydecreaseBABAMediareportedthatAlibabareapsaroundUSD125mnviadisposalofsharesinPaytmCENCHIMediareportedthatCCREdoesnotplantopay14Jan23USDcouponontimeandwillstrivetocuremisswithingraceperiodCHCOMUChinaCommunicationsConstructionproposestoraiseuptoRMB30bnviapreferenceshareissueCHINSCChinaSCEunitproposestoofferuptoCNY15bnCBICL-backedthree-yearMTNsCIFIHGMediareportedthatCIFIsunithasobtainedtheformalletterofguaranteefromCBICLtobackitsplannedonshorebondsissuanceFOSUNIMediareportedthatFosunskeyunitgetsRMB12bncUSD18bncreditlinefromasyndicateoflendersFosunmullssaleofBelgiandiamond-gradingfirmatUSD215mnvaluationLPKRIJMoodysplacedLippoKarawacisratingsonreviewfordowngradefollowingtenderofferSHIMAOShimaoobtainsconsentsforadditional18-monthmaturityextensionsontwoABSstotaledRMB117bnZHPRHKZhenropropertiesunitZhengzhouXinrongguiPropertywasplacedonthedishonestdebtorlistCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedFixedIncomeDepartmentTel8523761886785236576291fiscmbicomhkCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankAuthorCertificationTheauthorwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheauthorcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatauthorinthisreportBesidestheauthorconfirmsthatneithertheauthornorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisions413Jan2023ThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMandoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestDisclaimerForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththerepo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