研究报告全文：18Jan2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchEconomicsPerspectiveChinaEconomyInagradualresumptionin2023-2024ChinasGDPgrowthreached3in2022higherthanourforecastyetmissingBingnanYEPhDgovernmentstargetof55Thezerocovidpolicypropertymarketslumpand85237618967regulatorycrackdownovercapitalsseverelyhurtbusinessconfidenceandyebingnancmbicomhkeconomicactivityLookingforwardthepolicymakerswilltrytheirbesttorestoreKevinZhangconfidenceandboostgrowthWehavealreadyseenthereopeningofeconomy85253364682thelooseningofpropertypolicyandthepro-businessshiftafterthePartykevinzhangcmbicomhkCongressWeexpectadditionalmeasuresaheadtoboostconfidenceandsupporteconomicresumptionthisyearThemonetarypolicywillremainYoY2YCAGRfor202130accommodativeandthefiscalpolicyshouldbemoreproactiveChinaeconomywillbeinagradualresumptionin2023-2024TheGDPgrowthisexpectedto20reboundfrom3in2022to51in2023and47in20241004Q22GDPgrowthisbetterthanexpectationsChinasGDPgrowthin104Q22reached29muchhigherthanourexpectationof18For2022the2030GDPgrowthwas3missinggovernmentstargetof55Duetozerocovid2019202020212022policyinthefirst11monthsconsumptionandserviceactivitywasweakRetailsalesFAIExportsofgoodsRetailsalesdropped02in2022afterrising43in2020-2021andserviceSourceWindCMBIGMGDPgrowthdeceleratedfrom51in2020-2021to23in2022ThepropertymarketslumpalsodraggeddowntheeconomicgrowthasgrossfloorYoY2YCAGRfor202110areaofcommoditybuildingsandpropertydevelopmentinvestmentrespectivelydropped243and10YoYin2022Exportsofgoodswas5stronginthefirstthreequartersyetsharplydeterioratedfrom4Q22amid0overseasrecessionrisk5GDPgrowthisexpectedtoreboundfrom3in2022to51in202310thankstodomesticdemandresumptionChinaeconomyshouldbeina15gradualresumptionin2023-2024asthecountryreopenseconomystabilizes2019202020212022VAIOServiceoutputindexpropertymarketandseeksapro-businessshiftHouseholdconsumptionandSourceWindCMBIGMserviceactivitywillgraduallyresumeafterreopeningWeexpectretailsalesYoYandserviceGDPtoincreaseby65and59YoYrespectivelyin202320Meanwhilehousingmarketsalesmaygraduallystabilizein2H23withamild15declineforthewholeyearPropertydevelopmentinvestmentisexpectedtodropby5in2023afterdecreasing10in2022Thatpointstoaless10negativecontributiontotheGDPgrowthInadditionnewleaderspro-5businessshiftmayhelpboostprivatebusinessconfidencewhichispositive0forbusinesscapexHoweverChinaexportsmayfurtherdeterioratedueto5overseasrecessiondestockinganddisinflationWeexpecttheexportsof10goodstodropby35in2023afterrising7in20222Q201Q192Q193Q194Q191Q203Q204Q201Q212Q213Q214Q211Q223Q22F2Q22F4Q22F1Q23F2Q23F3Q23F4Q23FHouseholdconsumptionmayshowaW-shapedupwardtrendafterUSGDPChinaGDPreopeningDuetozerocovidpolicyandhousingmarketslumpChinasretailSourceWindCMBIGMsalesexperiencedsharpdeclinesin2022Cateringoperationincomedropped63retailsalesofclothingcosmeticshomeappliancefurnituretelecomequipmentandconstructiondecorationmaterialsrespectivelydecreased6545397534and62YoYlastyearLookingforwardhouseholdconsumptionshouldseeaW-shapedupwardtrendafterreopeningAtfirstpeoplewillbeworriedabouttheinfectionwithadeclineoftheirmobilityAsmoreandmorepeopleviewtheOmicroninfectionasaflupeoplemobilitywillresumeAirlinerailwaytransportationcateringshotelstourismapparelcosmeticsandmedicalproductserviceshouldrecoverrapidlysupportingPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk18Jan2023thefirstwaveofconsumptionrecoveryAsemploymentincomeandconfidenceneedsmoretimetoresumehouseholdconsumptionmayslowagainafterthefirstwaveofrecoveryThenitwillshifttothegradualresumptionmodeHousingsalesislikelytostabilizein2H23withamilddeclineforthewholeyearChinashousingmarketcollapsedin2022duetotheabruptdeleveragingespeciallyfordevelopersaswellaszerocovidpolicyGrossfloorareaGFAsoldandGFAstartedforcommoditybuildingsrespectivelydeclinedby243and394in2022afterrising19anddropping114in2021Landareapurchaseddecreasedby534in2022afterdropping155in2021AsChinareopensitseconomyandcontinuestoloosencreditpolicyforthepropertysectorhousingmarketmaygraduallyresumein2023ThereopeningshouldfacilitatearesumptionofemploymentincomeandconfidencewhichcouldsupporthousingdemandinthefutureAdeclineofpropertydevelopersinsolvencyriskcouldimprovehomebuyersconfidenceInadditioneasingcreditpolicyshouldsupporthousingmarketrecoveryWeexpectthedownpaymentratioandcontractratesofmortgageloansmayfurtherdeclineforfirst-homeandsecond-homebuyersWebelieveChinesegovernmentwillnotlaunchpropertytaxinnexttwoyearsTheresumptionofChinaspropertymarketin2023shouldbemoregradualandslowerthanthepreviouscyclesThespeculativedemandhassharplydeclinedWithanagingpopulationandslowerurbanizationhousingdemandinChinahasalreadypeakedandisheadingforadownwardtrendGeographicallyhousingsalesintier-1citiesshouldbemorerobustthanintier-2andothercitiesduetobettersupply-demandfundamentalsHowevertier-3and4citiesmaycontinuetoseeweakdemandChinashouldmaintainaccommodativemonetarypolicyin2023ChinasmonetarypolicyshouldremainaccommodativeasthegrowthisstillbelowpotentialgrowthandreflationriskislowAscreditdemandandriskappetitereboundsliquiditydemandmayincreasewithamoderateriseofmoneymarketratesHoweverliquidityconditionshouldremainaccommodativein2023RRRmaybefurthercutonceortwicemoreCreditpolicyshouldstayeasingespeciallyformanufacturinghardtechservicebusinessSMEsThecentralbankmayfurthercutLPRsmoderatelyandguidebankstoexpandcreditsupplytopropertysectorandLGFVsWeexpectcreditdemandmayrecovergraduallywiththegrowthofnewRMBloansandtotalsocialfinancingrespectivelyupfrom53and46in2022to11and10in2023AssavingpropensityandriskaversionsentimentdeclineM2growthmayslowfrom118atend-2022to11atend-2023Chinasfiscalpolicywillbemoreproactivein2023BroadfiscaldeficitincludinggeneralfiscaldeficitlocalgovernmentspecialbondquotamayincreasebyRMB800bnin2023Broadfiscaldeficitratiowillrisefrom58in2022to62in2023Chinawillexpandpolicybankcreditandlocalgovernmentfinancingvehiclesfinancingasquasi-fiscaltoolstoboostthegrowthSometaxreductionpoliciesmayextendinto2023suchasthepurchasetaxexemptiononnewenergyvehiclesandvalue-addedtaxreductionforsmallmicrobusinessesSomenewtaxreductionschemesmaybeintroducedsuchasfurtherreductioninindividualincometaxThetotalscaleoftaxreductionmayexceedRMB15trnin2023Weexpectgeneralfiscalrevenueandexpendituretorespectivelyriseby65and45GovernmentswillspendmorefundsoneducationtechnologyemploymentsocialsecurityhealthcareagricultureandruraldevelopmentnextyearPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE218Jan2023Figure1ChinaseconomicindicatorsYoY20192020202120221Q212Q213Q214Q211Q22JunJulAugSepOctNovDecGDP23843018379494048043929VAIO572896362459049396506384263502213-Mining5005530610124216510784815372405949-Manufacturing603498202739347316204273164522002-Publicutility702011422159110979861179513629401570Deliveryvalueforexports13031775530416314213214481985550256684ServiceOutput69001310129213959332533061813011908UrbanFAIYTD542949512567504099364575859585351-Propertydevelopment99704410025698067807406474808898100-Manufacturing3122135912981498810615611199100101979391-Infrastructure3334021152680471281058696104112114117115Retailsales803912502339141513533492754250559243Exportsofgoods05362997048830624223115812318275570289394Importsofgoods270630111294445259237961318010307106534SourceWindCMBIGMFigure2PropertymarketindicatorsFigure3HousingsalesbycityYoY2YCAGRfor2021YoY2YCAGRfor202150130401103020901070050103020103010405030605070702018201920202021202220162017201820192020202120222023GFAsoldGFAstartedLandareapurchasedASPTier1citiesTier2citiesTier3citiesSourceWINDCMBIGMSourceWINDCMBIGMFigure4FundingsourceforpropertyinvestmentFigure5FAIbysectorYoY2YCAGRfor2021YoY2YCAGRfor202140253020151005105203015405025602018201920202021202235TotalfundsDomesticloans2019202020212022DepositadvancepaymentIndividualmortgagefundPropertyInfrastructureManufacturingSourceWINDCMBIGMSourceWINDCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE318Jan2023Figure6FAIinagricultureinfrastructuresectorsFigure7FAIininfrastructuresocialserviceYoY2YCAGRfor2021YTDYoY2YCAGRfor2021YTD4030302020101001002010302040302018201920202021202240Publicutility20182019202020212022TransportationstoragepostserviceWaterconservancyPublicfacilityWaterconservancyEducationHealthsocialwelfarePublicfacilitySourceWINDCMBIGMSourceWINDCMBIGMFigure8HouseholdincomerentforhousingFigure9ConsumerconfidenceYoY2YCAGRfor2021index10465684465444252240022017201820192020202120223850436486348461032Urbanhouseholdincomepercapita3044Ruralmigrantworkerincome201720182019202020212022RentofCityHousingHouseholdsavingrateConfidenceaboutincomeSourceWINDCMBIGMSourceWINDCMBIGMFigure10UrbansurveyedunemploymentratesFigure11EmploymentIndexindex65256060205555501550451045404053520182019202020212022UrbanUnemployedRateLHS302019202020212022UrbanUnemployedRateforThoseAged16-24RHSManufacturingConstructionServiceSourceWINDCMBIGMSourceWINDCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE418Jan2023Figure12CateringOnlineRetailSalesFigure13RetailSalesofStaplesSourceWINDCMBIGMSourceWINDCMBIGMFigure14RetailSalesofSomeDurablesFigure15RetailSalesofDurablesRelatedtoHousingSourceWINDCMBIGMSourceWINDCMBIGMFigure16RetailSalesofNon-durablesFigure17Mobilityindexesintier-onecitiesindex7DMAmn7DMA19451840173516301525142013121511101050902020202120222023DailytrafficcongestionindexLHSDailysubwaypassengerflowRHSSourceWINDCMBIGMSourceWINDCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE518Jan2023Figure18DailyDomesticFlightsFigure19DailyAudienceFlowinCinemas7DMAmn7D1800030160002514000120002010000158000600010400020005001551937739104-2808-1104-0705-1906-0906-3007-2109-0109-2210-1311-0311-2412-151632891091271451811992172352532713073253432021Y2022Y2021Y2022YSourceWINDCMBIGMSourceWINDCMBIGMFigure20OutputGrowthinEquipmentFigure21OutputGrowthofEnergySteelProductYoY2YCAGRfor2021YoY2YCAGRfor20212020151015501055101502025530201920202021202210Generalequip2019202020212022SpecialequipCoalElectricitySteelproductElectricalequipComputertelecomequipelectronicsSourceWINDCMBIGMSourceWINDCMBIGMFigure22OutputGrowthinMachineToolAutoYoY2YCAGRfor20215040302010010203040502019202020212022MachinetoolAutoIntegratedcircuitSourceWINDCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE618Jan2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE7