研究报告全文：MN20Jan2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdateBaiduBIDUUSFactoringintonear-termpandemicimpactbutrecoveryisinsightTargetPriceUS19520Thefirstwaveofpandemicinfectionandsoftmacrohaveimpactedshort-termPreviousTPUS19280revenuerecoverytrajectoryofBaidusadsbusinessandweighedongrowthofUpDownside494cloudbusinessasitimpactedprojectdeploymentanddigitalisationspendingCurrentPriceUS13062budgetofenterprisesButBaidusadvertisingbusinessisregainingrecoverytrajectoryinJanuary2023afterpandemicimpactwanesLookinginto2023ChinaInternetBaidusadvertisingbusinesscouldrecoveralongwithmacroenvironmentandSaiyiHECFAitscloudrevenuegrowthhasthepotentialtoreaccelerateasBaiducloudhas85239161739establishedcompetitiveadvantageinverticalslikesmarttransportationhesaiyicmbicomhkmanufacturingenergyutilitiesandpublicservicesBaidusstrategicmovetocutcostandimproveoperatingefficiencycouldaidastableprofitabilityofitsYeTAOfranktaocmbicomhkCorebusinessin2023inourviewFactoringintothepandemicimpactwecut2022-2024Erevenueby1-3butliftourSOTP-basedTPby1toUS1952JiSHICFAonbetterearningsoutlookandincreasingvalueininvestmentportfolioBUY85237618728shijicmbicomhkSpringFestivaltravelseasonthenextkeytowatchforadsrecoveryWeestimateBaiduCoresadvertisingrevenuetodecline83YoYin4Q22WentaoLU3Q22-36duetothefirstwaveimpactofCOVIDinfectionWithinfectionluwentaocmbicomhkimpactwanesBaiduhasnoticedaconsistentrecoverytrendofitsadsbusinessinJan2023whiletheoverallmagnitudeofrecoveryforadsSophieHUANGbusinesshingesonCOVIDinfectionafterSpringFestivaltravelseasonsophiehuangcmbicomhkThatsaidrecoveryinadvertisingbudgetandsentimentcouldcomealongwiththerecoveryinmacroin2023andBaiduispoisedtodriveitsadsEasonXUeasonxucmbicomhkbusinessrevenuebackongrowthtrackaidedbyitsenhancedmobileecosysteminourviewWeforecastBaiduCoresadsrevenuetogrow7StockDataYoYin2023Efollowinga65YoYdropin2022MktCapUSmn464050Avg3mthstoUSmn1050MarginimprovementofCloudbusinesswellontrackWeforecast52wHighLowUS167357657BaiduCloudsrevenuetodecline9YoYtoRMB48bnin4Q22owingtoTotalIssuedSharesmn3553SourceFactSetsoftmacrodelayedprojectdeploymentandthereclassificationimpactofApolloSelfDrivingASDrevenueHoweverwearestillexpectingBaiduShareholdingStructureCloudtoachievepositiveYoYrevgrowthin4Q22ifexcludingtheRobinYanhongLi165reclassificationimpactofASDBaiduCloudmaintaineditstargettoachieveSourceHKExbetterthanindustryaveragerevenuegrowthin2023andtoachieveaSharePerformancebreakevenin2024-2025BaiduCloudisprioritizingprofitabilityoverscaleAbsoluteRelativeexpansionwhichcouldbenefititsmarginimprovementin2023inourview1-mth1601193-mth277240Costcontrolandoperatingefficiencyimprovementaidsstable6-mth-74-52profitabilityOverallweforecastBaiduCoresrevenuetodecline53SourceFactSetYoYtoRMB246bnandtorecordnon-GAAPoperatingprofitofRMB49bn12-mthPricePerformancein4Q22Etranslatinginto198OPMup11ppYoYBaidusstrategicmovetomaintainprudentcostcontrolandstriveforoperatingefficiencyimprovementaswellasprioritizingprofitabilityoverscaleexpansionforitscloudbusinesscouldaidstablenon-GAAPOPMlevelin2023EWeforecastnon-GAAPOPMtoimproveto216in2023E2022215EarningsSummaryYE31DecFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24ESourceFactSetRevenueRMBmn107074124493122527134683144846YoYgrowth03163169975AdjustednetprofitRMBmn220200188300203415220414241927EPSAdjustedRMB63935353572661436676ConsensusEPSRMB566265167526PEx131423532200178ROE12851266668SourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk20Jan2023ChangesinforecastandvaluationFigure1BaiduforecastrevisionCurrentPreviousChangeRMBbn2022E2023E2024E2022E2023E2024E2022E2023E2024ERevenue122513471448124313771498-14-22-33GrossProfit584653712596662733-20-13-28Non-GAAPnetprofit203220242203205241007505GrossMargin477485492479481489-03ppt04ppt02pptNon-GAAPnetmargin16616416716414916102ppt15ppt06pptSourceCMBIGMestimatesFigure2BaiduCorebusinesssegmentforecastrevisionCurrentPreviousChangeRMBbn2022E2023E2024E2022E2023E2024E2022E2023E2024ERevenue9441043112896610781183-23-32-46Non-GAAPGrossProfit524581629540596657-29-25-42Non-GAAPOperatingProfit203226245202207237078932Non-GAAPnetprofit1992102281991982300262-11Non-GAAPGPM428432434434433439-06ppt-02ppt-04pptNon-GAAPOPM16616716916215115804ppt17ppt11pptNon-GAAPNPM16315615716014315403ppt12ppt04pptSourceCMBIGMestimatesFigure3CMBIGMestimatesvsBloombergconsensusCurrentConsensusDiffRMBbn2022E2023E2024E2022E2023E2024E2022E2023E2024ERevenue122513471448124013661503-12-14-36GrossProfit584653712597667742-21-21-40Non-GAAPnetprofit20322024220322126304-03-80GrossMargin477485492481488494-05ppt-03ppt-02pptNon-GAAPnetmargin16616416716316217503ppt02ppt-08pptSourceBloombergCMBIGMestimatesSOTPvaluationofUS1952perADSOurSOTP-basedtargetpriceisUS1952whichcomprisesperADS1US591wasUS556forBaiduCoremainbusinessexcludingApolloandBaiduCloudmainlyincludingthecoresearchandfeedadsbusinessbasedonunchanged70x2023Enon-GAAPPEtheliftinvaluationismainlyduetoariseinnon-GAAPnetincomeforecastdrivenbypotentiallybetter-than-expectedmarginexpansionforBaiduCorebusiness2US225wasUS238forApolloASDbasedon20x2030Erevenueanddiscountedbackusinga130WACCthecutinvaluationismainlydrivenbyslightcutinrevenueforecastowingtofinetuneofassumptionforproductaveragesellingprice3US404wasUS451forBaiduCloudbasedonunchanged48x2023EPSinlinewiththetargetmultiplethatwearegivingtoitsChinesecloudpeersbutisbelowtheaverageof56xFig5foroverseascomparablecompaniesbecauseitscloudrevenueisonasmallerscalethecutinvaluationismainlydrivenbycutinrevenueforecastduetosoftmacroenvironmentwhichimpactedenterprisesdigitalizationspendingbudgetandfirstwaveofpandemicinfectionwhichimpactedprojectdeploymentPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE220Jan20234US603netcash5US129wasUS64foriQIYIandotherinvestmentswitha30holdingdiscountappliedtothesharepriceofUS184asofmarketcloseon18January2022Figure4BaiduSOTPvaluationValuationValuationNOPATValuationValuationValuationBaidusofBaidusSegmentUSDADSasofUSmnmethodmultipleRMBmnUSmnstakestaketotalUSmnCorebusinessandcash1Baiducoreex-ApolloandCloud303070x2023EPE146888212111000212115913032ApolloASD559268076100080762251153BaiduCloudex-ASD48x2023EPS100332144881000144884042074Netcash14991121648100021648603309Valuationofcorebusinessandcash654231823934iQIYIandstrategicinvestment1iQIYIMarketvalue3571551575152656742TripcomgroupMarketvalue161032232541082511703UxinMarketvalue8161189111004HANDEnterpriseSolutionsMarketvalue788111385360025KuaishouMarketvalue27782240119311246356YusysTechnologiesMarketvalue1526022045111303ValuationofiQIYI6597184andinvestmentsValuationofiQIYIandinvestmentwith461812930holdingdiscount66TotalBaiduvaluation70042USmnNumberofADSoutstandingmn359ValuationperADSUS1952SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesNote1AmericandepositaryshareADSiQIYIIQUSTripcomGroupTCOMUSUxinUXINUSHANDEnterprisesolution300170SHKuaishou1024HKYusysTechnologies300674SH2dataasofmarketcloseon18JanuaryOurtargetpricetranslatesinto220202x20232024EPEonanon-GAAPbasisor152140xifexcludingnetcashOurprevioustargetpriceofUS1928translatedinto221x2023EPEFigure5CloudcomputingpeersvaluationcompsCompaniesTickerPriceRevenuegrowthYoYPSxUS2022E2023E2024E2022E2023E2024EMicrosoftMSFTUS2358122100128857869GoogleGOOGUS9189279150514741SalesforceCRMUS1455173105129474338Average615649SourceBloombergCMBIGMNotedataasof18January2022PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE320Jan2023FinancialSummaryINCOMESTATEMENT2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecRMBmnRevenue107413107074124493122527134683144846Costofgoodssold628505515864314641016936573620Grossprofit445635191660179584266531871226Operatingexpenses382563757649661433674673349806SGAexpense199101806324723200702168423175RDexpense183461951324938232972504926631Operatingprofit63071434010518150591858521420ShareoflossesprofitsofassociatesJV1254224893216373691AdjustedEBITDA184162750424914284533210935324NetInterestincomeexpense310022552130329727733292Foreignexchangegainloss33660100119600Otherincomeexpense846094031038747000Pre-taxprofit340230901077880532098924711Incometax194840643187257150006309Aftertaxprofit228819026759154821598918403Minorityinterest434534462635293454757Netprofit2057224721022657751553517646Adjustednetprofit181822202018830203422204124193BALANCESHEET2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecRMBmnCurrentassets165562183342213315212374240992271126Cashequivalents334433578236850367566310291252Restrictedcash99675810821108211082110821Accountreceivables7416866899819064996310715Othercurrentassets123707138134155663155734157106158339Non-currentassets135754149366166719156168153867151276PPE183111750823027173021633015092Intangibles788784578947412127921439Goodwill182502224822605226052260522605Othernon-currentassets91306101153112140112140112140112140Totalassets301316332708380034368542394859422402Currentliabilities573806838574488731697593078219Short-termborrowings261830164168416841684168Accountpayables327013671641384402834169642858Othercurrentliabilities220612865328936287183006631193Non-currentliabilities711217248081594665046577364220Long-termborrowings7804012629000Bondpayables503876033555772533115258051027Obligationsunderfinanceleases448646935569556955695569Deferredincome1797129129129129Othernon-currentliabilities842773557495749574957495Totalliabilities128501140865156082139673141703142439Sharecapital000000Capitalsurplus387144721347548478834821848553Retainedearnings124885135483163911168493192445218916Otherreserves110931027148714871487148Totalshareholdersequity164708185798218607223524247811274617Minorityinterest810760455345534553455345Totalequityandliabilities301316332708380034368541394859422402PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE420Jan2023CASHFLOW2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecRMBmnOperatingProfitbeforetaxation340230901077880532098924711Depreciationamortization191611818016438512649464685Taxpaid194840643187257150006309Changeinworkingcapital66871820718691472489305Others18272520114784718272807384Netcashfromoperations284582420020122173182870430777InvestingCapitalexpenditure6428508410896318025151989Acquisitionofsubsidiariesinvestments9692396247000Netproceedsfromdisposalofshort-term4764860000investmentsOthers121011958620301161130104Netcashfrominvesting199742755231444334126452094FinancingNetborrowings7711239088401262900Sharerepurchases4958130547581000Others3146329221371442288534Netcashfromfinancing387356652339614071288534NetchangeincashCashatthebeginningoftheyear298273443936540476714757773923Exchangedifference1212943000Cashattheendoftheyear3443936540476714757773923102073GROWTH2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecRevenue5003163169975Grossprofit1181651592911890Operatingprofit5941274267432234153Netprofit92599255454351690136Adjnetprofit242211145808498PROFITABILITY2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecGrossprofitmargin415485483477485492Operatingmargin5913484123138148Adjnetprofitmargin169206151166164167ReturnonequityROE1312851266668GEARINGLIQUIDITYACTIVITIES2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecNetdebttoequityx050505050607Currentratiox292729293235Receivableturnoverdays225270270280254257Payableturnoverdays195022652186229321272067VALUATION2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecPE1545131423532200178PEdiluted1548132432543204181PB191620141312PCFPS145155479222121111SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesNoteThecalculationofnetcashincludesfinancialassetsPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE520Jan2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBISwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE6