>> 招银国际-China Property Sector – Silver lining lies on relaxation in Tier 1 cities-230118
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研究报告全文：18Jan2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchSectorUpdateChinaPropertySectorSilverliningliesonrelaxationinTier1citiesOUTPERFORMMaintainIn-lineNBSDecdataconcludedthehard-landing2022forpropertymarketwithsalesvaluepropertyinvestmentdown2710YoYLookinginto2023wethinktherecoveryofnewhomemarketstilltakestimeandexpectsalesandinvestmentChinaPropertySectortocontinuefallingat-10-5slightlymorenegativethanconsensusThekeyinvestmentthemesforthisyeararequickrecoveryinexistinghomemarketandJeffreyZengpropertysupplychaintoenjoydirectpolicysupportRMB350bnHomecompletion85239163727fundingRMB100bnforsocialhousingSostocksrelatedtothesetwothemesjeffreyzengcmbicomhkmayoutperformdevelopersinSTPropertymanagementOnewoYuexiuServiceCOPHEverSunshineOrientalYuhongWaterproofmaterialBEKEMiaoZhangpropertybrokerageCatalystpolicyrelaxationforTier1cities85237618910zhangmiaocmbicomhkExpect2023propertymarketaveryslowrecoveryDespiteabigfallin2022westillforecast2023Epropertysalesvalueandinvestmenttobe-10-5BellaLiYoYslightlytowardsthenegativeterritoryofthemarketChart1Themain85237576202reasonsare1lackofstrongdemand-boostpoliciestoturnaroundtheweakbellalicmbicomhksentiment2Fallingpropertypriceandcompletionriskstillhauntbuyers3Overbuiltgeneralinventorymonthcontinuedtospiketo26monthshighestsince2017TheonlythingwearepositiveisGFAcompletion10YoYin2023EduetodirectfundingsupportfromcentralgovernmentandlocalbankstotalRMB550bnNBSpropertydatainDec2022InlineSetalowbasefor2023-Propertyinvestmentnarrowedthedeclineto12YoYinDecvs-20YoYinNovpartlydrivenbythelowerbase-12inDec2021vs-3inNov2021ThefullyearREIdeclined10YoYthelowestsincetherecordbeganin1999andevenworsethanonly1YoYincreasein2015thetroughofthepreviouspropertycycle-Propertysalesvolumeandvaluedeclineslightlynarrowedto-32-28YoYinDec2022vs-33-32YoYinNov22representing4549MoMincreasepartlyduetotheseasonalityreasonThishasconcluded2022ayearofhardlandingtoseesalesvolumeandvaluedown2427YoYLookinginto2023thehopeliesonrumoursoflooseningonhome-purchasingpoliciesintier-1citiesstartedfromGuangzhouthatcouldannounceseveralrelaxingmeasurestocutdownpaymentWethinktheTwo-Sessionson5MarcouldbethetimingtoseeifitwillhappenornotAtleastthismayprovidesomehopeonthestilllacklustrepropertysales-Completiondeclinenarrowedto7inDecThecompletedGFAsaw23xMoMsurgeinDecandnarrowedYoYchangeto-7from-20inNov2022WethinkitsmainlypoweredbycontinuoussupportingofspecialfundsthatRMB200bnwasdistributedandtherewillbemoreofRMB350bntocomeincludingRMB150bnfrompolicybankandRMB200bnfromcommercialbanksaccordingtothenewsItisworthexpectingmoremeaningfulpickupin2023-NewStartscontinuedtodive44YoYinDec2022and39in2022Thisisinlinewithsimilardropinthelandsales-CompletedbutunsoldinventorycontinuesrisingMoMTheoverallunsoldresidentialinventorywas269mnsqminDec2022up2fromNov2022WethinkthisisduetothecompletionsalescausinginventorypilingPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk18Jan2023Figure1Ourforecastin2023E2023forecast2023EYoY2022YoY2021YoYCommentsPropertyGFAsoldmnsqm1249-81358-2417942FallingpropertypricepolicynotstrongPropertysalesRMBbn11998-1013331-27181935enoughconfidencedropNewStartsmnsqm1110-81206-391989-11OverbuiltPropertyinvestmentRMBbn12626-513290-10147604GFAcompletionmnsqm94810862-15101411AdditionalRMB350bnfundingsupportSourceNBSCMBIGMestimatesFigure2QuickviewofnationalpropertydatainDec2022SourceNBSCMBIGMFigure3LeadingindicatorGAINsuggestsaslightlybetterFebSourceWindCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE218Jan2023Figure4Primarymarketweeklyunitssoldin30citiesSourceWindCMBIGMFigure5SecondarymarketweeklyGFAsoldin8citiesSourceWindCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE318Jan2023Figure6PropertysectorcompsSourceBBGCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE418Jan2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMoritsaffiliateshaveinvestmentbankingrelationshipwiththeissuerscoveredinthisreportinpreceding12monthsCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalSecuritiesLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE5
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