>> 招银国际-China Software & IT Services – Year of rabbit： still about localization-230120
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研究报告全文：20Jan2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchSectorUpdateChinaSoftwareITServicesOUTPERFORMYearofrabbitstillaboutlocalizationMaintainWerecentlytalkedtosomesoftwareandITservicescompaniesregardingChinaSoftwareITServicesFY23EbusinessoutlookWhilemostcompaniesareencouragedbyChinare-openingandliftingofCOVIDrestrictionsthepaceofbusinessrecoveryislikelyMarleyNGANtobeslowWesuggestinvestorstofocusonthelocalizationthemeHorizontal85239163719SaaSandITservicescompanieswithgovernmenttelecomfinancialcustomermarleyngancmbicomhkexposurearelikelytobenefitMeanwhileChinaIaaSPaaSmarkethasenteredaqualitygrowthphaseWeanticipateamoderatecloudcapexspendinginBowenLIFY23EandthusaslowgrowthforupstreamIDCPreferKingdee268HK85237618957libowencmbicomhkBUYChinasoft354HKBUYandAsiaInfo1675HKNRSaaSLocalizationdemandstillintactAfterayearofde-ratingduetoUSratehikecycleandlowerinvestmentappetitetogrowthstockChinaSaaShasreboundedby50sinceitstroughinOct2022togetherwiththeimprovementinsentimentespeciallytowardsChinainternetsectorChinaSaaSistradingat88xFY23EEVsales28below3-yearmeanInFY23Ewebelievesectorre-ratingwillcontinueasenterpriseSaaSdemandwillpickupgraduallyWeexpectenterpriseSaaStodeliver15-25YoYtoplinegrowthinFY23EWepreferhorizontalSaaSwithlocalizationXinchuangthemethanverticalSaaSinpropertysectorasthelattermaystillbeunderpressureinFY1H23EITServicesWorkforcerestructuringcompletedmargintorecovergraduallyAsalabour-intensivebusinessChinaITservicescompaniesunderwentayearofworkforcerestructuringinFY22amidweakmacroenvironmentWeexpectChinaITservicetodeliverasteady10-15YoYtop-linegrowthinFY23EwithmarginimprovementHoweverITservicedemandegdatatransfersystemmigrationhasshiftedfromcompaniesininternettechnologytotelecomgovernmentfinancialsectorsduetotheXinchuanglocalizationinitiativeIaaSPaaSIDCFocusonbottomlineimprovementChinacloudhaspassedthefastgrowthstage30-40YoYandenteredanewphasefocusingonqualitygrowthinourviewWeexpectChinacloudmarkettogrowat10-20YoYinFY23EItisinevitablefortelecomoperatorstogainsharefrominternetcloudserviceprovidersCSPastelecomoperatorshavethecostadvantageinContentDeliveryNetworkCDNbusinessInternetCSPwillbecomepickyincloudprojectsProfitabilityratherthantop-linegrowthisthefocusthisyearWeanticipateamoderatecloudcapexspendinginFY23EandthusaslowgrowthforupstreamIDCserversuppliersChinaIDChasreboundedby20sinceOct2022andistradingat165xFY23EEVEBITDA27below3-yearmeanPrefercompanieswithlocalizationthemeWebelievelocalizationisstillthekeyinvestmentthemeinFY23EAlongthesoftwareandITservicessupplychainwelikeSaaSITServicesIaaSPaaSIDCWelikeRelatedReportsKingdee268HKBUYChinasoft354HKBUYandAsiaInfo16751ChinaStrategyOutlook2023HKHKNRfortheirXinchuangbusinessexposureStockstoReboundasChinaUSEconomiesDiverge23Dec2022linkValuationTable2ChinaSoftwareITServicesSalesPriceTPEVsalesPEROEChinaIaaSPaaSgrowthCAGRslowedfurtherin3Q2211NovCompanyTickerRatingLCLCFY23EFY23EFY23EFY21-24E2022linkKingdee268HKBUY1722238381nana193ChinaSoftwareITServicesChinasoft354HKBUY689914051301115Whichstocksarelessvulnerabletomarketvolatility29SepAsiainfo1675HKNR1398na1310814132022linkSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk20Jan2023FocuschartsFigure1ChinaSaaSistradingat88xFY23EEVsalesFigure2ChinaSaaSoutperformedUSSaaSsince28belowthree-yearmeanJan2023x251202010015801060540-20Jul-21Jul-22Jul-200Jan-20Jan-21Jan-22Mar-20Mar-21Mar-22Sep-20Nov-20Sep-21Nov-21Sep-22Nov-22May-22May-21May-20Jan-22Mar-22May-22Jul-22Sep-22Nov-22Jan-23Mktcap-weighted1-yrfwdEVsalesMeanChinaSaaSmktcap1-yearchangeMean1SDMean-1SDUSSaaSmktcap1-yearchangeSourceBloombergCMBIGMChinaSaaS002410CH600588CH268HKSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesUSSaaSMSFTUSADBE909HK3738HK8083HK2013HKUSCRMUSCRWDUSVEEVUSNETUSSZUSDDOGUSDBXUSDOCUUSOKTAUSPAYCUSINTUUSNOWUSTWLOUSSPLKUSSHOPUSSNOWUSWDAYUSZMUSTEAMUSFigure3ChinasoftwaremarketbacktosteadygrowthFigure4ChinaIaaSPaaSmarketshare45RMBbn120060403550100030408002530206002015104001005200-100ChinaAlibabaTencentHuaweiAWSOthers0-20Telecom1H20414120867571233Jul-21Jul-19Jul-20Jul-22Jan-20Jan-21Jan-22Jan-191H213791121098375242ChinasoftwareindustryMonthlyYoY1H223351071119490263SourceMIITCMBIGMSourceIDCCMBIGMFigure5BAToperatingcapexwasdown15YoYinFigure6ChinaIDCsectoristradingat165xFY23E9M22EVEBITDA27belowthree-yearmeanRMBmnx250002003530200001502515000100201510000501050000Jul-20Jul-21Jul-22Jan-20Jan-21Jan-22Mar-20Mar-21Mar-22Sep-20Nov-20Sep-21Nov-21Sep-22Nov-22May-20May-21May-22MktCapWeighted1-yrfwdEVEBITDA0-50Mean1Q151Q161Q171Q181Q191Q201Q211Q22Mean1SDBaiduTencentAlibabaYoYMean-1SDSourceCompanydataSourceBloombergCMBIGMChinaIDCGDSUSVNETUSCDUS300383CH600845CH603881CHPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE220Jan2023ValuationFigure7PeersvaluationSalesEPSPriceMarketCapYTDEVsalesxPECAGRCAGRCompanyTickerLCUSmnFY22EFY23EFY22EFY23EFY21-24EFY21-24ESaaSGlodon002410CH6540114997110908005892135Kingdee268HK17227641410481nana23naKingsoftOffice688111CH2946820057732524511478282828Yonyou600588CH2532128301816616999932120MingYuan909HK7891974134236nana10naCloudVobile3738HK4331171257150127469860naYouzan8083HK025588252320nana8naWeimob2013HK6042145-116451nana5naMean1028012177692228Median765812017572128IDCGDSGDSUS2223423686962nana157421VianetVNETUS630933112522nana14naChinDataCDUS8132983256423932683778Sinnet300383CH91724331224222512044naBaosight600845CH482612059658464103182228AtHub603881CH280613621781698455261930Mean52444763291952Median57444002921752AIHikvision002415CH36795084013834249207115Sensetime20HK2119019-49669nana28naDahua002236CH125956369121114512074Ainnovation2121HK2490177996944nana63naChina002373CH1011235812161345329163TransinfoiFlytek002230CH386113240841325713982523Cambricon688256CH610036087228153nana42naTechArcsoft688088CH25531530111531189715462429Mean81594713082613Median5639452290245ITservicesChinasoft354HK6892664006051601302014Asiainfo1675HK13981659213111301081314DigitalChina000034CH24472397120202156128983Mean08071451201437Median08061461221314IaaSPaaSKingsoftCloudKCUS4561157190605nana3naUcloud688158CH1497100118nanananananaSinnet300383CH91724331224222512044naMean15142502033naMedian15142502033naSourceBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE320Jan2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBISwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE4
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