研究报告全文：20January2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchSectorUpdateOUTPERFORMChinaInternetMaintainChinaonlineadvertisingonsetforgradualrecoveryin2023EChinaonlineadvertisingmarketrevenuedeclinedby64YoYtoChinaInternetSectorRMB5088bnin2022asperIMZthefirstYoYrevenuedropinthepast7yearsbutcomparedtoofflineadvertisingthisperformanceisrelativelymoreresilientSaiyiHECFAOnaQoQbasistheonlineadvertisingmarkethasbeenshowingrecovery85239161739signssince3Q22Onlineadmarketrevenuereturnedtopositive65YoYhesaiyicmbicomhkgrowthinNovember2022Giventhepaceofeconomicrecoveryweexpectonlineadssectorshoulddeliverstrongreboundfrom2Q23EonwardsWhileWentaoLUthewholeinternetsectorwillbenefitfromrecoveryindemandwewouldliketoluwentaocmbicomhkhighlightTencentandBiliBiliwillhaveincrementaldriversin2023E1YeTAOinnovationsinadvertisingproductsVideoAccountStoryMode2enhancingfranktaocmbicomhkmonetizationrecoveryinofflineactivitieswillalsobenefitsearchandLBSlocation-basedadvertisingplayerssuchasBaiduKuaishouandDouyinRelatedReportsAdbudgetshiftingtochannelsandformatswithhigherROIWiththe1ChinaInternet-Qualitygrowthtighteningadbudgetadvertiserspreferperformanceadsoverdisplayadsandfurtherdigitizationpenetrationastheadsimpactsarecrucialduringeconomicdowncycleandamidtoughprovidegrowthsupport19DeccompetitionHencerevenueshareofperformanceadsincreasedby2pct2BilibiliBILIUS-FocusonmoreYoYto69whilethatofdisplayadsdeclinedby2pctYoYto26in2022sustainablegrowth30NovShortvideosectoristheonlysectorthatrecordedYoYadrevenuegrowthin2022whichgrew6YoYandaccountedfor169oftotalChinaonline3WeiboWBUS-Ongoingmoderaterecovery18Novadrevenue2021149in2022Otheronlineadplatformsfacedpressurein2022forinstancee-commercesocialmediasearchplatforms4Tencent700HKReturntorecorded3214YoYadrevenuedeclinein2022equivalenttoearningsgrowthtrack17Nov38110296oftotalonlineadrevenue5ChinaInternet-SocialAddemandfromfoodbeveragepersonalcareandtransportationentertainment3Q22previewwereresilientin2022Foodbeverageandpersonalcarematernalremainsunderpressure10Novproductsmaintainedadspendingin2022withtheiradspendingshareupby1411pctto306340in2022Realestateandeducationsectorsad6Tencent700HKEcosystemvalueandgrowingdiversificationspendingsharedroppedsignificantlyby27pctand11pctYoYto06and28Oct05in2022primarilyduetotighteningregulationsinbothsectorsTransportationsectoradspendingwasupby14YoYtoRMB532bnin7BilibiliBILIUS-Userbaseand2022andaccountedfor105oftotalonlineadspending202186engagementgrowtharecrucial26OctdrivenbyincreasingadbudgetfromEVcompaniesIn2023weexpectdiscretionarysectorsrecoverywillfuelonlineaddemandrecovery8WeiboWBUSNavigateshort-Upbeatononlineadrevenuegrowthin2023EWeidentifiedseveraltermheadwind26Octsectorsthatarelikelytoseesolidadspendreboundin2023EduetothereopeningofofflineactivitiesretaillogisticstravelentertainmentandeconomicpolicysupportrelatedsectorsrealestatehomefurnishingdecorationsBasedonourestimatethepotentiallyrecoverableadspendingbythesesectorsisRMB368bnrepresenting7incrementalYoYadrevenuein2023EFor2023Eweforecast1Tencentsadrevenuetogrowby14YoYdrivenbythemonetizationofVideoAccountsandregulatoryimpactoncertainverticalswearingoff2Bilisadrevenuetoincreaseby30YoYsupportedbyimprovingadmonetizationinfrastructuregrowinguserbaseandincreasingadinventory3Weibosadrevenuetogrowby8YoYonconstantcurrencydrivenbyrecoveryofaddemandandexpansionofadcategorieseggamingandNEVads4BaiduCoresadsrevenuetogrow7YoYdrivenbyrecoveryinmacroBaidusenhancedmobileecosystemandincreaseinpercentageofvideocontentsshowedinsearchresultswhichbearshighereCPM5Alibabascustomermanagementrevenuetogrow61inFY24EdrivenbytherecoveryinGMVgrowthandrecoveryinadsentimentofmerchantsPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk20Jan20232022ChinaonlineadmarketrecapAccordingtoIMZInteractiveMarketingLabZhongguancunChinaonlineadvertisingmarketrevenuedeclinedby64YoYtoRMB5088bnin2022thefirstYoYrevenuedeclineinthepastsevenyearsDespitethechallengesonlineadvertisingmarkethasexperiencedgradualimprovementsince3Q22OnlineadmarketrevenuereturnedtopositiveYoYgrowthof65inNovember2022WiththeoptimizationofCOVID-19controlmeasureswearepositivethattheonlineadvertisingmarketrevenuewilldeliverstrongreboundin2Q23EonalowerbaseandrecoveryofaddemandFigure1ChinaonlineadmarketrevenueRMBbn600302550020400153001052000100-50-10201720182019202020212022ChinaonlineadrevenueYoYRHLSourceIMZCMBIGMWiththetighteningadbudgetduringeconomicdownturnadvertiserspreferperformanceadsoverdisplayadsastheyseekformeasurablereturnwithhighROIHencerevenueshareofperformanceadsincreasedby2pctto69whilethatofdisplayadsdeclinedby2pctYoYto26in2022ShortvideosectoristheonlysectorthatrecordedYoYadrevenuegrowthin2022Short-videoadrevenuegrewby59YoYtoRMB859bnin2022andaccountedfor169oftotalonlineadrevenue2021149mainlyattributabletoitsincreasingshareofusertimespendandrelativelyhighROIOtheradplatformsfacedpressurein2022E-commercesocialmediasearchplatformsrecorded3214YoYadrevenuedeclinein2022equivalentto38110296oftotalonlineadrevenueFigure2OnlineadrevenuebreakdownbyformatsFigure3Onlineadrevenuebreakdownbymedia100551009090802628807070606010298505016914940406930673020203813681010002022202120222021VerticalToolsClassifiedOthersOthersDisplayadsPerformanceadsVideoNewsSearchSocialmediaShortvideoE-commerceSourceIMZCMBIGMSourceIMZCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE220Jan2023Intermsofadspendingbydifferentsectorsconsumerstaplesectorslikefoodbeverageandpersonalcarematernalproductsmaintainedtheiradspendingdespitemacroheadwindwiththeiradspendingshareupby1411pctto306340in2022Realestateandeducationsectorsadspendingsharedroppedsignificantlyby27pctand11pctYoYto06and05in2022primarilyduetothetighteningregulationsinbothsectorsTransportationsectoradspendingwasupby14YoYtoRMB532bnin2022andaccountedfor105oftotalonlineadspending202186drivenbyincreasingadbudgetofEVcompaniesIn2022theEVsectoradspentpartiallyoffsetthedeclineinconsumerelectronicsadspendingFigure4OnlineadspendingbysectorFoodbeveragePersonalcarematernalTransportationInternetRealestate3CFinanceInsuranceRetailLogisticTravelentertainmentHealthcareHouseholdapplianceEducationFurnitureApparelIndustrialAgriOthers05101520253035402019pre-pandemic20212022SourceIMZCMBIGMWeidentifiedthatseveralsectorsweresignificantlyimpactedbyCOVID-19orregulationsduring2020-2022butarelikelytoincreasetheiradbudgetsin2023EduetoreopeningofofflineactivitiesretaillogisticstravelentertainmentornewpolicysupportrealestatefurnitureBasedonourestimatethepotentiallyrecoverableadspendingbythesesectorsisRMB368bnrepresenting7incrementalYoYadrevenuein2023EFigure5Sectorsthatarelikelytoseesolidadspendingreboundin2023ERMBbn20192022Asof2019levelCommentRealestate26331118PolicysupportssalesandadbudgetrecoveryRetailLogistic204119583Re-openingsupportsofflineretailandadbudgetrecoveryTravelentertainment10571677Re-openingsupportsofflinetravelandadbudgetrecoveryFurniture6548743RealestatechainTotal637269422Potentiallyrecoverableadspending368Asof2022totalonlineadrevenue7SourceIMZCMBIGMCombinedonlineadmarketshareofthetopfourplatformswaslargelystableat775in2022LeadingplatformsmaintainedtheirleadershipdespitesectorheadwindAmongthetopfourplatformsmarketshareofByteDanceincreasedbyc2pctto23in2022whilethatofAlibabaTencentdroppedbyc11pctto2814PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE320Jan2023Figure6Adrevenueshareofonlineplatforms100908070601415504023213020282910020222021OthersBaiduTencentByteDanceAlibabaSourceIMZCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE420Jan2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMoritsaffiliateshaveinvestmentbankingrelationshipwiththeissuerscoveredinthisreportinpreceding12monthsCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBISwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE5