>> 招银国际-China Solar Power Equipment – Our take on the potential limitation on the export of solar wafer technology-230130
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研究报告全文：30Jan2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchSectorUpdateChinaSolarPowerEquipmentOurtakeonthepotentiallimitationontheexportOUTPERFORMofsolarwafertechnologyLastFridaythereweremediareportssayingthatChinawilllimittheexportofChinaCapitalGoodscertainsolarwafertechnologiesinordertoprotectthecompetitiveedgeofChinasolarsupplychainacrosstheglobeWenotethatthenewsactuallyreferstotheWayneFungCFAconsultationpaperalreadyissuedbyMinistryofCommercebackinlateDec202285239000826WethinkoneofthekeyquestionsintheconsultationpaperiswhetherChinaswaynefungcmbicomhkwafercapacityconstructioninoverseaswillbesubjecttoChinesegovernmentapprovalWhiletheresultoftheconsultationisyettoreleaseourdiscussionwithseveralsolarcompaniessuggestedthatoverseasexpansionmaynotbelimitedaslongastheoverseascapacityiswhollyownedbytheChinesecompaniesConsultationpaperregardingtheprohibitinglimitingoftheexportoftechnologyThepaperwasreleasedinlateDec2022coveringvariousindustries关于中国禁止出口限制出口技术目录修订公开征求意见的通知linkTheconsultationperiodendedon28JanandthefinalresultisyettoreleaseTherearetwocategoriesoftheexportoftechnologynamely1prohibitingand2limitingAccordingtotheChineseregulation中华人民共和国技术进出口管理条例linkprohibiteditemsonthelistarenotallowedtoexportLimiteditemswillbesubjecttogovernmentapprovalThreenewlyaddeditemsrelatedtosolarpowerindustryIntheconsultationpaperissuedinDec2022therearethreenewlyaddeditemsinthelimitedcategoryforthesolarpowerindustrywhichinclude1largesizewafer2blacksilicon3highefficientmono-crystallinemulti-crystallineingotproductionExportofthesetechnologieswillneedpermissionfromtheChineseauthoritiesaccordingtotheconsultationChinasolarwaferhasadominantpositionintheworldAccordingtoCPIAChinassolarwaferoutputaccountedfor95oftheworldstotalin2021higherthanothermajorproductsinthesupplychainFigure1SuchdominantpositionisaresultofthecontinuousefficiencyenhancementofRelatedreportscrystalgrowingfurnacemeticulouswaferslicingtechnologyandeconomyof1SCNewEnergy300724CHBUYscalewhichdrivethecostdownsignificantoverthepastdecade3Q22netprofit12xYoYAcleanPotentialimpactonwaferequipmentmakersItscurrentlyunclearwhetherbeat27Oct2022linktheexportofcrystalgrowingfurnaceandwaferslicingmachinewillbedefinedasexportoftechnologyJSG300316CHBUYiscurrentlythelargest2JSG300316CHBUY2Q22profit14xYoYwithstrongcashcrystalgrowingfurnacemakerinChinaGiventhatJSGgenerates90offlowRaiseearningsTPonsolidrevenueinChinawheremostofthewafercapacitiesarelocatedthemargin29Aug2022linkpotentialimpactshouldbelimited3ChinaSolarPowerEquipmentPotentialimpactonwafermakersLONGi601012CHandTCLOutperform-PicksandShovelsinZhonghuan002129CHthetwomajorwafermakersgeneratesmostofthetheSolarGoldRush11Nov2020waferrevenueinChinaFortheintegratedsolarplayssuchasTrina688599linkCHJASolar002459CHandJinko688223CHthewaferoutputismainlyforin-housesolarcellproductionGiventhattheseplayersareexpandingfactoriesinoverseastheirexpansionplanwillbecomeuncertainincaseforastrictlimitationoftechnologyexportinthefinaloutcomePLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk30Jan2023Figure1Chinasoutputintheglobalsolarsupplyin2021SourceCPIACMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE230Jan2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE3
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