研究报告全文：MN26Jan2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdateQ-Tech1478HKWeak2H22asexpectedIoTautoCCMpoisedtodriverecoveryin2023TargetPriceHK576WebelieveQ-TechsFY22profitwarning70-80YoYdeclineisnotsurprisingPreviousTPHK560given11H22earningsdeclineof72YoY22H22CCMshipmentweaknessUpDownside148-17YoYvs-5in1H22and3marginpressureonlowutilizationandloss-CurrentPriceHK502makingIoTautoCCMbizLookingaheadwhilehandsetCCMFPMshipmentwillremainmutedin2023webelieveIoTautoCCMwillbecomemajorsalesChinaTechnologygrowthdriverswith204130YoYinFY2324Evs14formobileCCMAlexNGaccountingfor1019ofsalesinFY2324Evs3inFY22Weslightly85239000881adjustedFY2324EEPSforstrongerIoTautoCCMandreiterateBUYwithnewalexngcmbicomhkTPofHK576basedonsame10xPEUpcomingcatalystsinclude1QshipmentrecoveryautoCCMproductlaunchandA-sharespin-offHanqingLIlihanqingcmbicomhkFY22profitwarningnotsurprisinggiven2H22smartphoneweaknessStockDataQ-techannouncedFY22profitwarningstating70-80YoYearningsMktCapHKmn59487declinelargelyin-linewithourestimatesof-68YoYpriorest-72-63Avg3mthstoHKmn41in1H2H22givencontinuedsmartphoneCCMFPMweaknessin2H2252wHighLowHK963290OverallwebelieveFY22resultsiswellexpectedandreflectedinstockpriceTotalIssuedSharesmn11850SourceFactSetHandsetCCMFPMmutedgrowthexpectedinFY23EForhandsetCCMShareholdingStructure82ofsaleswhileweremainpositiveonSamsungorderwinandspecHENingning636HarvestFundManagementCo27upgradetrendsincludingOISSMAandperiscopelenstodriveASPupsideLtdin2023weexpectshipmentwillremainflattishinFY23EandestimateSourceHKEx14growthinFY2324EForFPM8ofsalesweestimate10revenuegrowthgivenalackofupgradeandmaturemarketSharePerformanceAbsoluteRelative1-mth23368AutoCCMemerginggrowthdriverwith1019salesmixin3-mth651220FY2324EQ-techwonover20certifiedOEMTier-1autocustomerswith6-mth6408projectsinoperationWeexpectIoTautoCCMtodeliver204130YoYSourceFactSetsalesgrowthinFY2324Eaccountingfor1019inFY2324Evs3in12-mthPricePerformanceFY22EDespiteweakprofitabilityatearlystageinFY22mgmtexpectedgrossmarginwillimprovewithscaleandreachcorporatelevelinFY2324EwhenordersstarttorampupfromnewenergyvehiclecustomersTheworstisoverin2H22MaintainBUYLookingaheadmgmtremainspositiveon1cameraspecupgradetodriveASP2ARVRsee-throughandpancakelensand3newenergyvehicleproductsin2023Overallwebelievetheworstisoverin2H22andremainpositiveonQ-techsIoTautoSourceFactSetCCMbusinessexpansionin2023ETradingat87xFY23EPEwebelievethestockremainsattractiveandmaintainBUYwithnewTPofHK576EarningsSummaryYE31DecFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenueRMBmn1740018663140941517317578YoYgrowth3217324577158NetprofitRMBmn84018628230856399381EPSReportedRMB072073020048080YoYgrowth511187331444664ConsensusEPSRMBna074031053072PEx58572138752PBx1310100908Yield5400092237ROE25320348110164Netgearing2320824746316SourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk26Jan2023FocusChartsFigure1RevenuegrowthtrendFigure2RevenuebreakdownSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure3MarginstrendFigure4CCMshipmentmixSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure5CCMmonthlyshipmentFigure6FPMmonthlyshipment20182019202020212022201820192020202120226016mnunitmnunit14501210401034308620410200JulJulOctAprJanJunFebMarAprOctAugNovDecSepJanJunMayFebMarSepNovDecAugMaySourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE226Jan2023EarningsRevisionFigure7EarningsrevisionNewOldChangeRMBmnFY22E2023E2024EFY22EFY23EFY24EFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenue140941517317578152071562317720-7-3-1Grossprofit7601237175082412411762-80-1Operatingprofit29567511003376631106-122-1Netprofit231564938273553944-162-1EPSRMB196478795232469800-162-1Grossmargin54821005479990ppt02ppt0pptOperatingmargin214563224262-01ppt02ppt0pptNetMargin163753183553-02ppt02ppt0pptSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure8CMBIestimatesvsconsensusCMBIConsensusDiffRMBmnFY22E2023E2024EFY22EFY23EFY24EFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenue140941517317578150511681318941-6-10-7Grossprofit7601237175093813851781-19-11-2Operatingprofit2956751100325651952-9416Netprofit231564938371624852-38-1010EPSRMB196478795312532724-37-1010Grossmargin5482100628294-08ppt-01ppt06pptOperatingmargin214563223950-01ppt06ppt12pptNetMargin163753253745-08ppt0ppt08pptSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure9PLforecastRMBmnFY19FY20FY211H222H22EFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenue8135174001866370956891140941517317578YoY2532173-240-261-24577158Costofsales7782156301690167196506132251393615827Grossprofit3531771176237638576012371750GPM431029453565482100YoY-600501-05-653-434-568626415SGA1001791847878156152176ofrev-12-10-10-11-11-11-10-10RD266590642261234495501580ofrev-33-34-34-37-34-35-33-33Operatingprofit70104610391851102956751100OPM0960562616214563YoY-871689-07-736-675-7161289629Profitofassociates2523521817352030Netprofit1484086316662231564938NPM0248462309163753YoY-96754927-715-779-7331444664SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE326Jan2023Figure10RevenuebreakdownRMBmnFY19FY20FY211H222H22EFY22EFY23EFY23ECCMRevenue10360152021687565026176127861385516257YoY654711-23-27-24817Shipmentmn406392479213211424438492YoY54-322-5-17-12313ASPRMB255387352305293302317330YoY752-9-19-12-1454FPMRevenue275921011675551623117311841187YoY51-24-20-40-18-3010Shipmentmn102921155161112117123YoY-5-1025-93-355ASPRMB27122814610910210510197YoY58-16-36-34-20-28-4-5Others51971124292134134134YoY66911610701900Total13170174001866370956891140941517317578YoY62327-24-26-24816SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE426Jan2023ValuationMaintainBUYwithTPofHK57615upsideOverallwebelievetheworstisoverandweremainpositiveonQ-techsnon-handsetbusinessexpansionMaintainBUYwithnewTPofHK576Catalystsinclude4QshipmentimprovementautoCCMandA-sharespin-offFigure11PeersvaluationMarketCapPriceTPUpDownPExPBxROECompanyTickerRatingUSmnLCLC-sideFY22EFY23EFY22EFY23EFY22EFY23EQtech1478HKBUY7595025761521387101047106FITHonTeng6088HKBUY2262243184-2411910608086974AACTech2018HKHOLD329821551540-2929318110103556SunnyOptical2382HKHOLD14973106909630-103952784540115144Tongda698HKBUY15301202279413101012330BYDE285HKHOLD775426952039-2433119721196499TKGroup2283HKBUY17316333810740310706186207FIH2038HKNR850084NANA-179---28Truly732HKNR569141NANA------SMIC981HKNR258091780NANA10114710099988YOFC6869HKNR27451434NANA83680908108114JuTeng3336HKNR225147NANA------Cowell1415HKNR15521448NANA1911443831222246Average179132161498108SourceBloombergCMBIGMTPunderreviewFigure1212MforwardPEbandFigure1312MforwardPBbandSourceCompanydataCMBIGMSourceCompanydataCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE526Jan2023FinancialSummaryINCOMESTATEMENT2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecRMBmnRevenue131701740018663140941517317578Costofgoodssold119901563016901132251393615827Grossprofit11801771176276012371750Operatingexpenses560724723465561650Sellingexpense152623192326Adminexpense128153161137129149RDexpense396590642495501580Others214410418591105Operatingprofit620104610392956751100ShareoflossesprofitsofassociatesJV402352352030Others535430444752Pre-taxprofit6079709572166481078Incometax65130941584140Minorityinterest000000Netprofit542840863231564938BALANCESHEET2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecRMBmnCurrentassets7363788293156974109159752Cashequivalents41219841743345527014728Accountreceivables491935894446162249112657Inventories191319432258102924351500STbankdeposits93267811811811811Othercurrentassets2610057575757Non-currentassets327235213733388640344236PPE270429603144329734463647Intangibles5420202020Othernon-currentassets563557569569569569Totalassets106351140313048108601494913988Currentliabilities754372768079570793447633Short-termborrowings127011041708224924572802Accountpayables593560136259334567754718Taxpayable497749494949Othercurrentliabilities2908264646464Non-currentliabilities000000Deferredincome130138200200200200Othernon-currentliabilities5250000Totalliabilities776876178343597096087896Sharecapital999999Otherreserves285837764690487553266076Totalshareholdersequity286737864705489053416091Minorityinterest000000Totalequityandliabilities106351140313048108601494913988PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE626Jan2023CASHFLOW2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecRMBmnOperatingProfitbeforetaxation6079709572166481078Depreciationamortization302413498552610678Changeinworkingcapital149721771017113912641132Others000000Netcashfromoperations2400360415961965432799InvestingCapitalexpenditure11335231558705759879Others000000Netcashfrominvesting1271696880705759879FinancingDividendpaid0107046113188Netborrowings10861015604542208345Others2701931546444752Netcashfromfinancing817131594245248106NetchangeincashCashatthebeginningoftheyear1004121984174334552701Exchangedifference02114000Cashattheendoftheyear41219841743345527014728GROWTH2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecRevenue6193217324577158Grossprofit234150105568626415Operatingprofit7848689077161289629Netprofit36667549277331444664PROFITABILITY2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecGrossprofitmargin90102945482100Operatingmargin476056214563ReturnonequityROE21825320348110164GEARINGLIQUIDITYACTIVITIES2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecNetdebttoequityx030200020003Currentratiox101112121213Receivableturnoverdays1102892786786786786Inventoryturnoverdays398450454454454454Payableturnoverdays136913951325132513251325VALUATION2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecPE1471281532229155PB282828101008Divyield135400092237EV286703785847052488985341060915EVSales020203030403SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesNoteThecalculationofnetcashincludesfinancialassetsPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE726Jan2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBISwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE8