研究报告全文：FixedIncomeCreditCommentary26Jan2023CMBICreditCommentaryFixedIncomeDailyMarketUpdate固定收益部市场日报TradingflowremainedlightthismorninggivenChinamarketwillonlyresumetradingnextMondayThismorningwesawKoreannameswereunderprofitGlennKoCFA高志和takingEIBKORWOORIBPOHANGtraded2bpswider85236576235glennkocmbicomhkFTHDGRFactsandthoughtsondebtrestructuringAssumingzerovalueoftheequityvalueholdersnotparticipatingintotheDutchauctionforredemptionofbondsat15ptsorloweranddiscountratesof15-40fortherestructuredbondsweestimatetheNPVoftherestructuredbondsto19-CyrenaNgCPA吳蒨瑩43inadditiontotheconsentfeeof01Seebelow85239000801cyrenangcmbicomhkVEDLNVedantaplanstosellitsinternationalzincassetstoitssubsidiaryHindustanZincforuptoUSD298bnVEDLN24-26up45-104ptslastFridayandlargelyunchangedfromlastFridaytothismorningJerryWang王世超85237618919Tradingdeskcomments交易台市场观点jerrywangcmbicomhkLastFridayIGspacewitnessedasilentbutveryfirmsessionPreviousnewissueWOORIB28wereflatatT113117levellastFridayFinancialsspacewaslargelystablewithChinaAMCsperformedmixedHRINTH23-24stightened10-15bpsundertwo-wayflowsCCAMCLcurveendedlargelyunchangedskewedtobettersellingpostCindaannouncedonLastThursdaythatitexpectedaupto50yoydropinnetprofitforFY22T2BenchmarksCCB29-32sweretraded3-5bpswiderTMTsweregenerallystrongBIDUBABAbenchmarkpaperscontinuedtotherecentupbeattogrind1-3bpsfurthertighterBBBnamesXIAOMILENOVOtightened2-5bpsTAISEM30ypapersweretraded10bpswiderthanpreviousEODInIGpropertiesLNGFORVNKRLEcurvestightened6-12bpsChinaHYwasquietacrossthespaceCOGARDsCHINSCsclosedup05-1ptROADKGsYLLGSPswereup15-25ptsCSCHCNsCENCHIslowered1-25ptsPWRLNGswereslightlybidup05-1ptafternewsonitsplantopaythethreeUSDcouponsonthedue-23-24swithinthegraceperiodHKnamesNWDEVLperpswerenotablyup15-45ptswhileFWDGRPwere05-1pthigheronthedayInindustrialspaceFOSUNI24-25sandHONGQI23-24swereindicatedunchangedto05pthigherathigh-90sMacaugamingnamesMPELsSANLTDsSTCITYsweretradedup05-1ptAwayfromChinaIndianHYsoutperformedending05pthigherwithGRNKENsADANIGsweremarkedup05-1ptacrossthecurveVEDLN24-26ssurged45-104ptsafteritannouncedthesaleofitsinternationalzincassetstoHindustanZincforuptoUSD298bnNear-termVEDLN23sweretraded15-2ptshighertocloseathigh-90sIndonesianspacewerelargelystableLPKRIJsLMRTSPswereunchangedto05pthigherMEDLIJ25wasquotedat35levelbeforeFitchwithdrewitsCCC-ratingasthecompanyhaschosentostopparticipatingintheratingprocessPLEASEREADTHEAUTHORCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGECMBIFixedIncomefiscmbicomhk126Jan2023IntheLGFVSOEPerpAT1spacemarketwasrathermutedonthelasttradingdaybeforeLunarNewYearLGFVsstayedstableamidabroaderpositivebackdropinChinacreditWesawcashparkingflowsshiftedtorebalancingflowsClientsarebasicallysidelinedtoavoidsettlementinholidaySomeweakernamesshowedbalancedtwo-wayflowsskewedtobettersellingCQLGST24sGSHIAV23swereunchangedto05ptlowerInSOEspacewesawbetterbuyingonthefrontendHAOHUASINOPECNOOCcurvesedged3-6bpstighterAT1swerecontinuetobesupportedatrecentrichlevelsBenchmarksICBCAS358PerpCMHI35Perpweretradedat965985levelrespectivelyLastTradingDaysTopMoversTopPerformersPriceChangeTopUnderperformersPriceChangeVEDLN618080924793104CSCHCN9121124729-23VEDLN89503112585079CENCHI765082723368-23VEDLN91404232678973TAISEM27092260649-18GLPCHI2602092493050TAISEM31092351758-16NWDEVL614PERP80847TAISEM412042252997-16MacroNewsRecap宏观新闻回顾MacroUSstockmarketswereweakyesterdaySP-002Dow003andNasdaq-018AllthreeindexesparedlossesyesterdayafternoonwhileDowshowedaslightgainatclosingNasdaqweigheddownafterMicrosoftannounceditsquarterlyresultsbigtechpeersAmazonAppleandAlphabetalsotradeddownTheUStreasuryyieldsoverallupThe251030yieldscurvesat411354346362respectivelyDeskanalystcomments分析员市场观点FantasiaFactsandthoughtsondebtrestructuringOurestimatedNPVof19-43Fantasiafinallyannouncedthelong-awaiteddebtrestructuringplanInbriefUSD13bnabout13oftheoutstandingUSDbondswillbeconvertedintoequityofFantasiaandtheremainingUSD27bnwillbeexchangedinto8tranchesofnewbondswithmaturitiesrangingfrom2-65yearsThecouponratesrangefrom5-8forcashcouponand7-10forcouponwithPIKPleaseseeAppendix1forthesummaryofdebtrestructuringplanAssumingzerovalueoftheequityvalueholdersnotparticipatingintotheDutchauctionforredemptionofbondsat15ptsorloweranddiscountratesof15-40fortherestructuredbondsweestimatetheNPVoftherestructuredbondsto19-43inadditiontotheconsentfeeof01Thelong-stopdateoftherestructuringwillbeon30Nov23Discountrate1520303540NPV43335925521818732ofoutstandingbondswillbeswappedforequityFantasiahas13USDbondsincludingappofUSD50mnwithanaggregateoutstandingamountofUSD4bnUSD13bnofthesewillbeequitizedintothesharesofFantasiawhichhasbeensuspendedfromtradingsince1Apr22ThemarketcapitalizationofFantasiapriortotradingsuspensionwascUSD150mnUponthecompletionofdebtrestructuringthecontrollingshareholderBabyZengwillholdatleast45equityinFantasiawhileUSDbondholderswillholdatleast526inFantasia226Jan2023Thebalancetobeexchangedintonewbondswithmaturitiesof2-65yearsFortheremainingUSD27bnwillbeexchangedinto8tranchesofnewbondswithmaturitiesfromDec24Jun29ThecashcouponandPIKcouponofthenewbondsrangefrom5-8and7-10respectivelyFromnowtoDec25atleastpartofthecouponwillbePIKAllcashcouponwillonlycomestartingfromDec25TargettoraisenewmoneyofUSD115mnOneoftheconditionprecedentsisthecompletionofraisinginitialnewmoneyofUSD100mnsuperseniordebtfromGortuneAlternativeandsubordinateddebtsofUSD15mnfromBabyZengGortuneAlternative40ownedbyGortuneInvestmentCoLtdspecializesininequityinvestmentsdistressedassetinvestmentsassetmanagementandindustrialresourceintegrationGortuneInvestmentCoLtdestablishedin2016isaninvestmentcompanyItspaid-upcapitalisRMB16bnShareholdersincludeGDenterprisessuchasCOGARDMideaandXiangxuePharmaceuticalAfterdeductionofUSD25mnforfeeandexpensestheremainingUSD90mnwillbeusedtoredeemexistingbondsthroughaDutchauctiontenderofferatapurchasepriceofnohigherthan15ptsFantasiawillraiseonabesteffortbasisAdditionallyNewMoneyofUSD100mnApprovalthresholdsTheapprovalthresholdwillbeheadcountvoteofover50andatleast75invaluevotedfortherestructuringplanintheschememeetingsCurrentlythead-hocgrouprepresentsc245oftheoutstandingUSDbondsofFantasiaTheunknownsAtthetimeofwritingweareyettoobtainafirmanswerfromtherestructuringadvisoronthequorumandarrangementoftheschememeetingWearenotsureiftherewillbe13separateschememeetingsfor13outstandingbondsorthesebondswillbelumpedintoasingleschememeetingAdditionally40ofnetconsiderationsofSpecifiedAssetSalewillbedepositedinareserveaccountforbondredemptionHoweverthereisnoinformationastowhatassetswillbeincludeinSpecifiedAssetSaleAppendix1SummaryofthedebtrestructuringThedebtrestructuringTheosUSDmn4018356676Debttoequityswap1300324InitialnewmoneyGortuneAlternativeFundManagementZhuhaiHengqinCoLtdUSD100mnSuperseniordebtssecuredbyonshoreassetsZengJieBabyUSD15mnUnsecureddebtswithnofixedmaturityinteresttobe5-8AdditionalnewmoneyFinancingorassetsalesbesteffortbasisUSD100mnParipassuwithsuperseniordebtsNoamortizationwithin1yrorestructuringeffectivedateRED326Jan2023Longstopdate30Nov23Stepplan9Apr23Consentfee010Consentfeedeadline30Mar23thelatestApprovedthreshold50inheadcountand75invalueinschememeetingSizeMaturityAllcashCoupon31-Dec-2230-Jun-2331-Dec-2330-Jun-2431-Dec-2430-Jun-2531-Dec-25USDmncouponwithPIKonwardsTrancheA200031-Dec-2457AllPIK0505053cash3cashAllcashcashthecashthecashthetherestintherestinrestinPIKrestinPIKrestinPIKPIKPIKTrancheB200031-Dec-25525725AllPIK0505053cash3cashAllcashcashthecashthecashthetherestintherestinrestinPIKrestinPIKrestinPIKPIKPIKTrancheC300031-Dec-26550750AllPIK0505053cash3cashAllcashcashthecashthecashthetherestintherestinrestinPIKrestinPIKrestinPIKPIKPIKTrancheD400030-Jun-276800AllPIK0505053cash3cashAllcashcashthecashthecashthetherestintherestinrestinPIKrestinPIKrestinPIKPIKPIKTrancheE500031-Dec-27650850AllPIK0505053cash3cashAllcashcashthecashthecashthetherestintherestinrestinPIKrestinPIKrestinPIKPIKPIKTrancheF500030-Jun-287900AllPIK0505053cash3cashAllcashcashthecashthecashthetherestintherestinrestinPIKrestinPIKrestinPIKPIKPIKTrancheG309231-Dec-28750950AllPIK0505053cash3cashAllcashcashthecashthecashthetherestintherestinrestinPIKrestinPIKrestinPIKPIKPIKTrancheH309230-Jun-2981000AllPIK0505053cash3cashAllcashcashthecashthecashthetherestintherestinrestinPIKrestinPIKrestinPIKPIKPIKClickhereforfullreportOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPricedSizeUSDIssueRatingIssuerGuarantorTenorCouponYieldmnMSFNoOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPricedTodayOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPipelineIssueRatingIssuerGuarantorCurrencySizeUSDmnTenorPricingMSFNoOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPipelineToday426Jan2023NewsandmarketcolorRegardingonshoreprimaryissuancestherewere5creditbondsissuedlastFridaywithanamountofRMB3bnAsforMonth-to-date1059creditbondswereissuedwithatotalamountofRMB909bnraisedrepresentinga305yoydecreaseInMacautheaveragedailyvisitorarrivalsurged217yoytomorethan51kduringfirstthreedaysoftheLunarNewYearbreakMorethan94camefrommainlandChinaandHongKongADANIGAdaniGroupplanstolist5businessesaftertheirproposedspin-offbetween2025-2028includingAdaniAirportHoldingsAdaniNewIndustriesAdaniConnexPvtAdaniRoadTransportandalsothegroupsmetalsandminingoperationsBUMIIJBumiResourcesB3ratingwithdrawnbyMoodysCARINCCarIncoutlookrevisedtonegativebySPontighteningliquidityB-ratingaffirmedCHFOTNCFLDbondrestructuringschemeofarrangementsanctionedbyEnglishHighCourtHUIJHKHuijingHoldingsexpectsnon-paymentofintereston125seniornotesThecompanyconductsconsentsolicitationtopostponetheinterestpaymentdatefor3monthsto21Aprfrom21JanIDASALInalumisnotplanningtolaunchanIPOthisyearandmayseektoissueglobalbondsinsteadINDYIJIndikaEnergyssubsidiaryKidecosecuredacoalmineconcessionextensionuntil2033SeparatelyIndikasetupaJVwithSouthKoreasBioneerCorpamedicalequipmentmanufactureritalsobought46inNaturaAromatikNusantaraanIndonesiasfourth-largestexporterofessentialoilsforIDR1796bncUSD12mnKAISAGKaisaisclosetohireanindependentfinancialadvisortoconductaliquidationanalysisforitsoffshoredebtrestructuringLPKRIJLippoKarawacireceivedUSD2242mnofnotesvalidlytenderedasofearlytenderdeadlinerepresenting287and259oftheaggregateoutstandingprincipalofitsdue-25anddue-26notesLVGEMLVGEMChinasCCCratingwithdrawnbyFitchasthecompanystopparticipatingintheratingprocessRONXINRonshineChinamissedpaymentfortheprincipalandinterestsonitsUSD413mn895notesdueinJan23RSMACAAlibabaincreaseditsstakeinRedStarMacallineto99viaconvertingtheexchangeablebondsinto2176mnA-shareatRMB844pershareVEDLNVedantaResourcesseeksuptoUSD2bnbridgeloanstofinancedebtrepaymentandbondredemptionsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedFixedIncomeDepartmentTel8523761886785236576291fiscmbicomhkCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankAuthorCertification526Jan2023Theauthorwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheauthorcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatauthorinthisreportBesidestheauthorconfirmsthatneithertheauthornorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMandoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestDisclaimerForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereport6