研究报告全文：30Jan2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchSectorUpdateChinaConsumerSectorStrongrecoveryandsustainabilityduringCNYOUTPERFORMMaintainRemarkablerecoveryvs4Q22improvingspendingpowerandexcellentsustainabilityWebelievethedatapointsduringthe2023ChineseNewYearChinaConsumerDiscretionaryarebetterthanourexpectationandmeaningfullyencouragingfortheSectorconsumersectorbecause1thebasewashighin2022asthenumberofCOVID-19caseswereverylimitedduringJan-Feb2022andthenumberofWalterWoopassengerjourneysalreadygrewby31YoY85237618776walterwoocmbicomhk2theimprovementissignificantvs4Q22supportedbythe8973recoveryrateofdomestictourismvolumespendingduringthisCNYbetterYumChina9987HKsharepriceHKthan6144inthe10-1holidaysandanylevelintheentire2022yearStockHSI55003incrementalincreaseinspendingpowerwherethespendingpertouristactuallyroseby6YoYthefirstincreasesince2021450035004thesustainabilitywasfairlydecentaswehaveseenadailybasisgradualimprovementintermsofgrowthrateforbothnumberofpassengerjourneys2500andboxofficealsoindicatingabetterpurchasingpowerandsentiment1500Jan-22Mar-22May-22Jul-22Sep-22Nov-22DomestictourismspendingduringCNYhadrecoveredto8973of2019levelbetterthananylevelin2022Duringthe2023ChineseNewSourceBloombergCMBIGMestimatesYeardomestictourismvolumeincreasedby23YoYto308mnandreachedXBXB520HKshareprice89ofthelevelin2019whichisfarbetterthanthe436173inNewHKStockHSIYearEveNationalDayHolidaysMid-autumnfestivalandthisisthehighest100levelsince1H21Thedomestictourismspendingincreasedby30YoYtoRMB3758bnrecoveredtoabout73ofthelevelin2019andalsoimproved80nicelycomparedto354461inNewYearEveNationalDayHolidays60Mid-autumnfestivalwaybetterthananytimeintheentire2022basedon40datafromMinistryofCultureandTourism文化和旅游部20TourismCateringSportswearandapparelshalloutperformAccordingJan-22Mar-22May-22Jul-22Sep-22Nov-22totheVATinvoicedatabyStateAdministrationofTaxation国家税务总局增SourceBloombergCMBIGMestimates值税发票数据theconsumptionrelatedsalesgrewby122YoYandincreasedby124YoYcomparedto2019levelIntermsofcategoriesAnta2020HKsharepriceHKgrowthratesforgrainoilandfoodfurnituremetalhardwareculturalandStockHSIstationerytourismrelatedserviceswere3215921130YoY1400Passengerjourneysreached25bnduringCNYroseby75YoYalso1200recoveredto54of2019levelReferringtodatafromMinistryofTransport1000交通运输部thenumberofpassengerjourneysduringthe2023Chinese800NewYearfirst7daysfrom22to28Jan2023wasabout25bnincreased600by75YoYonlyrecoveredtoaround54ofthelevelin2019butitisJan-22Mar-22May-22Jul-22Sep-22Nov-22alreadythebestlevelsince2020MoreoverboththerecoveryrateandgrowthratewereweakerbeforeCNYEveandimprovedonadailybasisafterSourceBloombergCMBIGMestimatesthatNotedthatthistrendwasalsoseenintheBaiduMigrationIndex百度迁移指数wheretherecoveryratebeforeaftertheCNYEvewere116125Xtep1368HKsharepriceHKStockHSIRetailsalesinWandashoppingmallsincreasedby29YoYBasedon160datafromthe480Wandashoppingmallsacrossthecountryduringthe2023140ChineseNewYearfromCNYEveto6thdaysaleswereaboutRMB127bn120increasedby29YoYwitha160mnpassengervisitswhichisabout115100ofthe2019level80Movieboxofficeincreasedby12YoYAccordingtoreal-timedatafrom60Jan-22Mar-22May-22Jul-22Sep-22Nov-22theBeaconProfessionalEdition灯塔专业版thetotalboxofficeduringthe2023ChineseNewYearexceededRMB675bnincreasedby12YoYandSourceBloombergCMBIGMestimatesthenumberofviewerswasaround129mnwhiletheticketsizewasaboutRMB527similartothatinlastyearPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk30Jan2023ForCateringsectoroutperformBasedonvariousnationwideandcitiesleveldatawecanseetheretailsalesinBeijingShanghaiwereroughlyflatabout98100vslastyearandthecateringsalesweregenerallybettergrewby56YoYBasedonourestimateswebelievenotallthecateringbrandscanregisterpositiveSSSGduringthisfestivalbutshouldatleasthaveasimilarleveltoNewYearEveandmuchbetterthanthatin4Q22AccordingtomanagementHaidilaosSSSrecoveryratevslastyearwasabout90duringthe2023CNYsimilartothe93inNewYearEveandmuchbetterthanthe758885inDecNovOct2022WhilesomeotherbrandslikeXBXBNayukiperformedextremelywellbyregistering126600YoYgrowthnationwideinsomecitiesAnyhowwearemorepositiveaboutthesectorin2023aswebelievetheSSSGtrendcanfurtherimprovewiththelowbasefortherestoftheyearandtheearningsgrowthcanrecovermeaningfullydrivenbybetterstoreeconomicsandcostbasethebreakeventableseatturnoverratehadgonefurtherdownsince2H22ToppickYumChina9987HKBUYCDC341HKBUYXBXB520HKNRJiumaojiu9922HKBUYNayuki2150HKBUYHaidilao6862HKBUYForSportswearandapparelsectoroutperformBasedonourestimateswebelievethesportswearandapparelsalesshouldhavegrownatafasterratethantheoverallretailsalessupportedbythestrongYoYtouristsandpassengergrowthaswellastheexcellentweatherNotedthatthetemperatureinBeijingShanghaiShenzhenwere4-5degreescolderduringtheCNY22to28Jan2022vslastyearand1-2degreescolderduringJan2023vslastyearToppickAnta2020HKBUYXtep1368HKBUYTopsports6110HKNRLiNing2331HKBUYPouSheng3813HKNRForHomeappliancesectormarket-performBasedonourestimateswebelievethehomeappliancessalesgrowthcouldbefairlyinlinewiththeretailsalesgrowthduringthisCNYHolidaysaidedbyvariousconsumptionvouchersissuedinmanycitiesbutoffsetbyaslightlylowerstayhomedemandasmanyconsumersarediningoutortravellingmorethisyearHoweverthankstothegreaterinterestofreturninghomein2023webelievethesalesofsmallappliancescouldbemuchbetterespforproductslikerobotvacuumairfryerwaterpurifiersetcToppickHaier6690HKBUYGree000651CHNRJoyoung002242CHNRJSglobal1691HKBUYVesync2148HKBUYMidea000333CHPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE30Jan2023FocusChartsFigure1Domestictourismvolumegrowthandrecoveryratevs2019indifferentholidays6000160140120450089100747361803000436023400201500-2-17-180-20--40全国国内旅游出游百万人次同比出游人次恢复率对比2019年SourceMinistryofCultureandTourism文化和旅游部CMBIGMestimatesFigure2Domestictourismspendinggrowthandrecoveryratevs2019indifferentholidays5000025020040000150300007310056614435302000050-44-23-26010000-50--100实现国内旅游收入亿元同比旅游收入恢复率对比2019年SourceMinistryofCultureandTourism文化和旅游部CMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE3MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk30Jan2023Figure3Numberofpassengerjourneysgrowthandrecoveryratevs2019duringthe2023ChineseNewYear600086908350007680736867400070300054556053625150472000555557505353535353514949100040-30全国春运日客运量万人次与春节假期同比对比2019年春节SourceMinistryofTransport交通运输部CMBIGMestimatesFigure4DailynumberofpassengerjourneysduringtheChineseNewYearHolidaysbyyears万人次12000初七94371000080006000初七5030初一35164000初一17052000-20232022202120202019SourceMinistryofTransport交通运输部CMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE430Jan2023Figure5BaiduMigrationIndexduringtheChineseNewYearbyyearsSourceBaidu百度迁移指数CMBIGMestimatesFigure6BaiduMigrationIndexgrowthandrecoveryratevs2019duringthe2023ChineseNewYear1200160135136125127140100011912012011811711211411412080010060080524649504560400443429314020013162000百度迁徙指数与春节假期同比对比2019年春节SourceBaidu百度迁移指数CMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE530Jan2023Figure7NumberofpassengerjourneysgrowthandFigure8Movieboxofficegrowthandrecoveryraterecoveryratevs2019vs201946335500007510010013316040000781145450801021206830000249705859600608020000143051143310883-503410000401240--10020020192020202120222023-23全国春运日客运量万人次0-402017201820192020202120222023与春节假期同比对比2019年春节春节票房亿同比对比2019年春节SourceMinistryofTransport交通运输部CMBIGMestimatesSourceBeaconProfessionalEdition灯塔专业版CMBIGMestimatesFigure9TicketsizeandgrowthFigure10Dailymovieboxofficeandgrowth276001416025305285271362448912446113450397101201111101072037898881230068061041502400-700--2--102017201820192020202120222023初一初二初三初四初五初六票价元同比票房亿同比SourceBeaconProfessionalEdition灯塔专业版CMBIGMestimatesSourceBeaconProfessionalEdition灯塔专业版CMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE630Jan2023Figure11TheconsumptionrelatedsalesgrowthbasedontheVATinvoicedatabysub-sectors14001300120010008006004003153062091521642001228600SourceStateAdministrationofTaxation国家税务总局增值税发票数据CMBIGMestimatesFigure12HaidilaosSSSGduringJan2022toChineseNewYear2023302020201010400-10-5-7-10-12-10-20-15-30-25-25-30-40SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE730Jan2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE8