研究报告全文：31Jan2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdateGACGroup2238HKBUYMaintainWeexpect4Q22NPtofallonequityincomeTargetPriceHK800PreviousTPHK800UpDownside382MaintainBUYWeprojectGACs4Q22netprofittodecline21YoYtoRMBCurrentPriceHK57916bnasweexpectitsgrossprofittofall7YoYandequityincomefromjointChinaAutoSectorventuresJVsandassociatestodecline13YoYWearestilloftheviewthatGACsvaluationisattractiveanditisadefensiveplayerinavolatilemarketSHIJiCFANetprofitin4Q22likelytofallYoYandQoQWeprojectGACs4Q22net85237618728shijicmbicomhkprofittofall21YoYtoRMB16bnamid6YoYdeclineinitstotalsalesvolumeWeforecastGACsgrossmarginin4Q22tobelargelyflatQoQasDOUWenjingCFArisingbatterycostsmayoffsetthegreatereconomiesofscalefromhigherAion85269394751salesWeexpectGACs4Q22equityincomefromJVsandassociatestodouwenjingcmbicomhkdecline13YoYthemainreasonforthedeclineofourprojected4Q22netprofitSalesvolumeatGACHondafell27YoYin4Q22GACToyotaraisedStockDataincentivestodealersin2H22inordertoachieveits1mn-unitsalestargetinMktCapHKmn595702022Avg3mthstoHKmn10652wHighLowHK816473WeprojectsalesvolumeofAiontorise18YoYinFY23EamidhighTotalIssuedSharesmn10464SourceBloomberginventoriesSalesvolumeofAionmorethandoubledinFY22to027mnunitsbecomingthefourthbest-sellingNEVbrandinChinaWecalculateAionShareholdingStructureGuangzhouAutomobileincreaseditsinventoriesatdealersbyabout57000unitsin2022or531Industryequivalenttomorethantwo-monthofitsretailsalesvolumeThereforeweOthers469projectwholesalevolumeofAiontoonlyrise18YoYto032mnunitsinSourceHKExFY23EWeexpectGACsgrossmargintowidenby21pptsYoYinFY23EduetothehighersalesvolumeofAionandpossiblebatterypricedropSharePerformanceAbsoluteRelativeValuationKeyrisksWeprojectGACsnetprofitinFY23Etodecline5YoY1-mth1401033-mth47149toRMB92bn1lowerthanourpriorforecastmainlyduetolowerequity6-mth98-211incomefromJVsandassociatesSourceBloombergWeusesum-of-the-partsSOTPvaluationtofactorinAionsplannedspin-off12-mthPricePerformanceWevalueAionHK38persharebasedon10xunchangedFY23EPSHK2238HKHSIrebasedWevalueHK42pershareforJVsandassociatesbasedon30xourFY23E100PEwhichisequivalenttoaveryconservativedividenddiscountmodel80assumingequityincometodeclineYoYsignificantlyfromFY25Eandbecome600inFY30EWevalue0forTrumpchiAccordinglywemaintainBUYratingandtargetpriceofHK800Keyriskstoourratingandtargetpriceinclude40lowersalesvolumeandmarginsespeciallyforAionandasectorde-rating20002022-012022-042022-072022-10EarningsSummarySourceBloombergYE31DecFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenueRMBmn6315775676111911113076113722AuditorPricewaterhouseCoopersYoYgrowth581984791006NetincomeRMBmn596475119691919310491RelatedReportsGACGroup3Q22earningsmissonEPSRMB058073093088100impairmentToyota28Oct2022YoYgrowth9925929051141PEx8463545750PBx0605050505Yield2736403843ROE72861028994NetgearingNetcashNetcashNetcashNetcashNetcashSourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk31Jan2023Figure1QuarterlyresultsRMBmn1Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q223Q224Q22EYoYQoQSalesvolumeunits496560529945467221650661608167541759675024608761-64-98Revenue1602418548209412016323268254213167831544564-04Grossprofit6001030132716311025116014701526-6538RDexpenses260263237228241319388289270-254SGAexpenses15182154218524172110228723243512453511InvestmentIncome34433060178135304227427137703006-148-203Operatingprofit2279193797819512854288321021821-67-134Netprofit2366197194720513009274223121629-206-295Grossmargin3756638144464648-33ppt02pptOperatingmargin14210447971231136658-39ppt-09pptNetmargin148106451021291087352-50ppt-21pptSourceCompanydataCMBIGMFigure2EarningsrevisionNewOldDiffRMBmnFY22EFY23EFY24EFY22EFY23EFY24EFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenue111911113076113722113304124632127207-12-93-106Grossprofit5180752696965241813510844-12-75-106Operatingprofit528639811855562743181648NANANANetprofit969191931049195739085127091212-175Grossmargin46678546658500ppt01ppt00pptOperatingmargin-47-35-16-50-35-1302ppt-01ppt-03pptNetmargin878192847310002ppt08ppt-08pptSourceCMBIGMestimatesFigure3CMBIestimatesvsconsensusCMBIGMConsensusDiffRMBmnFY22EFY23EFY24EFY22EFY23EFY24EFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenue11191111307611372210470412398514609869-88-222Grossprofit5180752696966196853311651-164-118-168Operatingprofit528639811855480844911603NANANANetprofit969191931049199991141013039-31-194-195Grossmargin466785596980-13ppt-02ppt06pptOperatingmargin-47-35-16-46-36-11-01ppt01ppt-05pptNetmargin878192959289-09ppt-11ppt03pptSourceBloombergCMBIGMestimatesFigure4SOTPvaluationFY23ETargetPETargetPSEstTargetMarketTargetPriceGAC2238HKRMBmnMultipleMultipleShareholdingCapRMBmnHKEstimatedNEVRevenue46075-10x753455638EstimatedShareofProfitsofJoint1327530x--3982542VenturesAssociatesSOTP7438180SourceCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE231Jan2023FinancialSummaryIncomestatementCashflowsummaryYE31DecRMBmnFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24EYE31DecRMBmnFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenue6315775676111911113076113722Profitbeforetaxation569274129660921110500Costofsales6086171777106730105550104026Depreciationamortization51105719702877058639Grossprofit22963899518075269696Changeinworkingcapital39738134442331953454Others1050111488135661223011377Sellingexp36414340534661406179Netcashfromoperating36716491754514914307Adminexp38504556612264196424Othergains16291371100210521052Capex658662431070091009200Operatingprofit35673626528639811855Others364713478136981232310818Netcashfrominvesting29387235299832231618Netfinancecosts3123671548354ProfitshareofassoJVs957111404151001327512408Netborrowings110526575371725652Pre-taxprofit569274129660921110500Dividendpaid193621352525131822992Others347255228234226Tax3561541638138Netcashfromfinancing1178777812416913870Minorityinterests845513210047Netprofit596475119691919310491Netchangeincash77871520241930232056Cashatbeginningoftheyear2360515791172351965422676Exchangedifference2776---Cashattheendoftheyear1579117235196542267624732BalancesheetKeyratiosYE31DecRMBmnFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24EYE31DecFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24ECurrentassets5664361192788788277485814SalesmixCashequivalents1579117235196542267624732Automobile601650720748752Accountreceivables1961625110367933779538946Partsandservices359321259231227Inventories66228111116961156711400Financeandothers4029212122Othercurrentassets1461410736107361073610736GrowthNon-currentassets862189305998424100556102352Revenue581984791006PPE2007319476207421964418392Grossprofit90698329453288Intangibles1225913581153011734218614Operatingprofit29116458247534Deferredincometax21242834283428342834Netprofit9925929051141Othernon-currentassets5176257168595476073762513Totalassets142861154251177302183330188167ProfitlossratioGrossmargin3652466785Currentliabilities4254349133632986317859746Operatingmargin5648473516Bankborrowings65049889396559164700Netprofitmargin9499878192Accountpayables3546438490584825638954151Taxpayable103202202202202BalancesheetratioOthercurrentliabilities472551649670693Netcashtotalequityx0101010202Currentratiox1312121314Non-currentliabilities1360412469114151045010508Receivableturnoverdays113121120122125Bankborrowings84737527592749274927Inventoryturnoverdays4041404040GovernmentGrants25562196206619561863Payableturnoverdays213196200195190Othernon-currentliabilities25752747342235673718Totalliabilities5614761602747137362770254ProfitabilityROE72861028994Sharecapital1035010371103711045210514ROA4351585156Reserves74025799438987096892105036Non-controllinginterests23392335234923592363PersharedataRMBShareholdersequity8437590313100240107345115549EPS058073093088100Totalequityandliabilities142861154251177302183330188167DPS018022029027031PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE331Jan2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE4