研究报告全文：1Feb2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdateNIOIncNIOUSBUYMaintain4Q22ElosstonarrowFY23salestooutperformTargetPriceUS2300PreviousTPUS2500UpDownside913WeprojectNIOs4Q22EnetlosstonarrowQoQdespitesalesvolumemissWeCurrentPriceUS1202projectNIOssalesvolumetorise63YoYto200000unitsinFY23EWeareChinaAutoSectormoreconservativeaboutNIOsbreakevenpointthanconsensusaswebelieveitmayneedmass-marketbrandtoachieveitgivenitsheavyinvestmentsinRDandinfrastructureNIOspremiumimagecouldlayoutthefoundationforitsSHIJiCFAupcomingmass-marketbrands85237618728shijicmbicomhk4Q22EearningspreviewNIOs4Q22salesvolumerose27QoQtoaboutDOUWenjingCFA40000unitslowerthanitspriorguidanceof43000-48000unitsWeproject85269394751NIOs4Q22Erevenuetorise22QoQamidloweraveragingsellingpricedouwenjingcmbicomhkduetohighersalesproportionoftheET5nearly30Weestimate4Q22EgrossmargintobelargelyflatQoQAccordinglyweexpectNIOs4Q22EnetStockDatalosstonarrowslightlyQoQtoaboutRMB38bnMktCapUSmn20543Avg3mthstoUSmn630FY23EoutlookWerevisedownourFY23Esalesvolumeforecastfrom52wHighLowUS2641838TotalIssuedSharesmn1692230000unitsto200000unitsduetointensifyingcompetitionandpossibleSourceBloombergweaker-than-expected1Q23EsalesWeexpectthesalesvolumeoftheES8ES6andEC6todropYoYinFY23EdespitenewupgradesbasedonNT20ShareholdingStructurewhiletheES7EC7ET5ET5wagonmaybecomesalesdriversforFY23ELiBin103Tencententities97WeprojectNIOsgrossmargintowidenby2pptsYoYto157inFY23EOthers800aidedbyhighersalesvolumeandpossiblebatterypricedropWeestimateSourceBloombergNIOsRDandSGAexpensestobeabout15and18ofitsrevenueinFY23ErespectivelyAccordinglyweforecastitsFY23EnetlosstonarrowaSharePerformanceAbsoluteRelativebitYoYtoRMB113bnmuchlowerthanconsensus1-mth3041733-mth339-83NIOmayneedmass-marketbrandtoturnprofitableWehavebeenmore6-mth-392-486conservativeaboutNIOsbreakevenpointthanconsensusfromtheverySourceBloombergbeginningAlthoughmanagementtargetsbreakevenforNIOscorebusiness12-mthPricePerformancein4Q23EweprojectthecompanytocontinuemakinglossinFY24EgivenUSitshugeinvestmentsinRDandcharginginfrastructuresHoweverwe30NIOUSMSCIChinarebasedforecastitscashflowtoturnpositiveinFY24ENIOscurrentcashreserves25shouldbemorethanenoughtosupportitsbusinessesatleastthroughout20FY24Eevenwithoutanynewfinancingbasedonourcalculations15ValuationKeyrisksWemaintainourBUYratingbutlowertargetprice10slightlyfromUS2500toUS2300stillbasedon35xofourrevisedFY23E5revenueestimatesKeyriskstoourratingandtargetpriceincludelowersales02022-012022-042022-072022-102023-01volumeandmarginsthanweexpectaswellasasectorde-ratingSourceBloombergEarningsSummaryAuditorPricewaterhouseCoopersYE31DecFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24EZhongTianRevenueRMBmn1625836136490897624592222YoYgrowth10781223358553210RelatedReportsNetincomeRMBmn56111057212514113209599NIOIncFivenewmodelsin1H23toEPSRMB474672747669562regainmarketshare11Nov2022YoYgrowthNANANANANAPSx4426231512PBx26274368118YieldNANANANANAROE538342413531726NetgearingNetcashNetcashNetcashNetcashNetcashSourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk1Feb2023Figure1QuarterlyresultsRMBmn1Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q223Q224Q22EYoYQoQSalesvolumeunits2006021896244392503425768250593160740052600267ASPRMB39792338582640121539549238460841072541136839657403-36Revenue79828448980599019911102921300215884604222Grossprofit15551574199317001447134017352170277250RDexpenses68788411931829176221492945301164723SGAexpenses11971498182523582015228227123277390208Operatingprofit29676399224452189284638703957NANANetprofit4875659285921791825274541423802NANAGrossmargin195186203172146130133137-35ppt03pptOperatingmargin-37-90-101-247-221-276-298-249-02ppt49pptNetmargin-611-78-292-220-184-267-319-239-19ppt79pptSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure2EarningsrevisionNewOldDiffRMBmnFY22EFY23EFY24EFY22EFY23EFY24EFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenue4908976245922225143387177109373-46-125-157Grossprofit6692119511634770451372019434-50-129-159Operatingprofit12862121741038212310118128408NANANANetprofit1251411320959912149109077498NANANAGrossmargin136157177137157178-01ppt-01ppt00pptOperatingmargin-262-160-113-239-135-77-23ppt-24ppt-36pptNetmargin-255-148-104-236-125-69-19ppt-23ppt-36pptSourceCMBIGMestimatesFigure3CMBIestimatesvsconsensusCMBIGMConsensusDiffRMBmnFY22EFY23EFY24EFY22EFY23EFY24EFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenue4908976245922225112594806126088-40-196-269Grossprofit6692119511634771421565124229-63-236-325Operatingprofit1286212174103821168583751939NANANANetprofit12514113209599107447145965NANANAGrossmargin136157177140165192-03ppt-08ppt-15pptOperatingmargin-262-160-113-229-88-15-33ppt-71ppt-97pptNetmargin-255-148-104-210-75-08-45ppt-73ppt-96pptSourceBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE21Feb2023FinancialSummaryIncomestatementCashflowsummaryYE31DecRMBmnFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24EYE31DecRMBmnFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenue1625836136490897624592222Profitbeforetaxation5298397512222111909573Costofsales1438529315423976429475875Depreciationamortization15462352338946455869Grossprofit1873682166921195116347Changeinworkingcapital48302693168527041423Others873896162914911423RDexp2488459298671169711904Netcashfromoperating1951196655202350858SGAexp39326878102871332815825Otherincome611526009001000Capex11284079450160017001Operatingprofit46084496128621217410382Others3943356861105865007500Netcashfrominvesting5071397656557499499Netfinancecosts259274910634359GainLossofinvestee6663180150150Shareissuance34762128228006001080Othernon-operexp365185450200300Netborrowings615368031901428691Pre-taxprofit5298397512222111909573Others5981162720361820Netcashfromfinancing413571812923701590409Incometax642373429Accronredeemableint3126587260100-Netchangeincash38237196701334344150Minorityinterests531533Cashatbeginningoftheyear99038545183751704113600Netprofit56111057212514113209599Exchangedifference682501---Cashattheendoftheyear3854518375170411360013650BalancesheetKeyratiosYE31DecRMBmnFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24EYE31DecFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24ECurrentassets4620763641516244531239805SalesmixCashequivalents3842615334134419950100004Vehiclesales934918930915909Accountreceivables1079278134975431656963Others6682708591Inventories1082205629044580540581Othercurrentassets56204347031782253511783121GrowthRevenue10781223358553210045Non-currentassets843519242232152710331172GrossprofitNA264119786368720PPE49967400955212158147088OperatingprofitNANANANANA698Right-of-useassets13502988323928532289NetprofitNANANANANA24Othernon-currentassets20898854104251209214175041Totalassets5464282884748397241570977392ProfitlossratioGrossmargin115189136157177593Currentliabilities1397629198289793740242293Operatingmargin2831242621601136504Bankborrowings19317298313035582867Netprofitmargin345293255148104081Accountpayables6368126391626223780280639631182628628628628BalancesheetratioTaxpayable46Othercurrentliabilities54968633895994371073591Netcashtotalequityx11101010102Currentratiox33221812097385Non-currentliabilities880315622163741820818920Receivableturnoverdays2428262626612BankborrowingsinclCB5938973996251062510625Inventoryturnoverdays272625262684Othernon-currentliabilities2865588367497583829595Payableturnoverdays162157140135135Totalliabilities2278044820453535561061213268092ProfitabilityMezzanineequity469132783538--ROE538342413531726382Sharecapital33333ROA162154159154134864Treasuryshares-1850367236723672573Reserves271663655729547204071336886-PersharedataRMBNon-controllinginterests2767168652EPS-474-672-747-669-56209Shareholdersequity271693471025878167389699DPSNANANANANA172Totalequityliabilities54642828847483972415709772175SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimates46616942PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE31Feb2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE4