>> 招银国际-China Economy – On its way to recover-230201
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研究报告全文：1Feb2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchEconomicPerspectivesChinaEconomyOnitswaytorecoverChinaseconomicactivitiesandbusinesssentimentbroadlyimprovedinJanuaryBingnanYEPhDasPMIsinmanufacturingconstructionandserviceallsawstrongrecoveriesafter85237618967economyreopeningBreakingdownsectorsindexesinmedicinegeneralyebingnancmbicomhkequipmentrailwaytransportequipmentaerospaceequipmenttransportationKevinZhanglogisticscateringaccommodationfinancialservicereachedhighorrebounded85253364682significantlyinJanuaryHoweverindexesinrealestatesectorremainedweakkevinzhangcmbicomhkChinaexportsmayhavetemporarilyimprovedinJanuarybeforedeterioratingagaininfutureTheimportsmaygraduallyimproveasdomesticdemandrecoversindexafterreopeningFormostsectorsmaterialpricemildlyreboundedwhileex-6560factorypricecontinuedwithdeclinesThePMIindicatesChinaeconomyisonits55waytorecoverWemaintainourforecastonChinasGDPgrowthat51for50452023and47for2024403530PMIreboundedtotheexpansionaryrangewithbrightereconomic25prospectsaftereconomyreopeningPMIinmanufacturingroseto50120192020202120222023inJanuary2023from470inDecember2022asitreturnedtotheManufacturingPMIConstructionPMIexpansionaryrangeTheindexinmedicinejumpedtoabove65asdemandServicePMIincreasedsharplyintheCovidwaveTheindexesingeneralequipmentandSourceNBSCMBIGMrailwaytransportequipmentaerospaceequipmentreboundedtotheexpansionaryrangeForservicesectorPMIjumpedfrom394to54asindex55peoplestartedtogooutfortravelcateringrecreationorsocialactivitiesThe5351indexesinrailwaytransportationairtransportationpostservicefinancial4947serviceretailsaleservicecateringaccommodationreachedhighor45increasedstrongly434139Demandandsentimentimprovedbroadlyaseconomyreopening3735boostedbusinessconfidenceNeworderindexesinmanufacturing20192020202120222023constructionandservicerosefrom439488and374lastDecemberPMIoflargeenterprisesto509574and516thisJanuaryBusinessconfidencereboundedasPMIofmediumenterprisesPMIofsmallenterprisesthesentimentindexesintheabovethreesectorsincreasedfrom519615SourceNBSCMBIGMand523to556682and643respectivelyExportsmayhavetemporarilyimprovedwithlessYoYdeclinesExportorderindexrosefrom442inDecember2022to461inJanuary2023probablythankstothesupplychainimprovementafterreopeningHoweveroverseasrecessionriskanddisinflationtrendarestillthereChinaexportsmaydeteriorateagainaftersometemporaryimprovementTheimportindexclimbedfrom437to467WeexpectChinasimportsmaygraduallyimproveasdomesticdemandrecoversaftereconomyreopeningMaterialcostreboundedassentimentimprovedincommoditymarketMaterialcostindexesinmanufacturingconstructionandserviceroseto522553and509inJanuary2023from516512and489inDecember2022SentimentimprovedincommoditymarketasinvestorsexpectedthereopeningwouldboostChinasdemandformostcommoditiesinfutureMaterialcostindexinsteelsectorjumpedto666inJanuaryasironorepricehasreboundednoticeablyrecentlyHoweveraggregatedemandshouldresumeinagradualmangerwithdownsideriskinoverseasdemandEx-factorypriceindexesinmanufacturingandservicereached487PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk1Feb2023and475thisJanuarycomparedto49and47lastDecemberItindicatesthereflationpressureismildinChinaUnemploymentpressureeasedEmploymentindexesinmanufacturingconstructionandservicerespectivelyimprovedfrom448457and424inDecember2022to477531and455inJanuaryTheemploymentconditionmaygraduallyimproveinfuturefacilitatingconsumptionrecoverythisyearChinaeconomyisstillinearlystageofrecoveryChinaeconomyisonitswaytorecoverItisstillinearlystageofrecoverysupportedbyrestorationofmobilityAspeoplestarttogoouttransportationcateringtravelaccommodationrecreationclothingfootwearandpersonalcareshouldreboundrapidlyHoweverhousingsalesdurableconsumptionbusinesscapexmaytakelongertorecoverChinawillmaintaineasingliquidityandcreditpolicyashousingmarketresumptionandreflationpressurearelowWemaintainourforecastonChinasGDPgrowthat51for2023and47for2024PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1Feb2023Figure1NewOrderIndexFigure2BusinessSentimentIndex70index65605550454020192020202120222023ManufacturingConstructionServiceSourceWINDCMBIGMSourceWINDCMBIGMFigure3ExportOrderIndexandImportIndexFigure4InventoryIndexindexindex5555505045454040353530302019202020212022202325Inventoryofproducts20192020202120222023InventoryofmaterialsExportorderindexImportindexPurchasevolumeofmaterialsSourceWINDCMBIGMSourceWINDCMBIGMFigure5MaterialPurchasePriceIndexFigure6Ex-factoryPriceIndexindexindex756570656060555550454050353045252019202020212022202340ManufacturingConstruction20192020202120222023ServiceSteelManufacturingConstructionServiceSourceWINDCMBIGMSourceWINDCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE31Feb2023Figure7ManufacturingOutputIndexFigure8ServicePMIOutputIndexindexYoYindexYoY23YCAGR6010601558551055650545524505004048554635441010304240152515201820192020202120222023201820192020202120222023ServicePMILHSManufacturingOutputIndexLHSServiceoutputindexYoYRHSVAIOYoYgrowthRHSServiceGDPYoYRHSSourceWINDCMBGMSourceWINDCMBGMFigure9CompositeOutputIndexFigure10EmploymentIndexindexYoYindex6086065555450250045240454356408302018201920202021202220192020202120222023CompositeoutputindexLHSGDPYoYRHSManufacturingConstructionServiceSourceWINDCMBGMSourceWINDCMBGMFigure11SupplyDeliveryIndexFigure12DailyMobilityIndexinTier-1Citiesindexindex7DMAmn7DMA551945405017353015452520134015111035509030202020212022202320192020202120222023DailytrafficcongestionindexLHSSupplydeliveryindexinmanufacturingSupplydeliveryindexinserviceDailysubwaypassengerflowRHSSourceWINDCMBGMSourceWINDCMBGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE41Feb2023Figure13TrafficCongestionIndexinCitiesinJan2023SourceWindCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE51Feb2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE6
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