研究报告全文：1Feb2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdateXpengIncXPEVUSBUYMaintain4Q22EnetlosstonarrowsalesaskeytoFY23TargetPriceUS1800PreviousTPUS2000UpDownside796WeprojectXpengs4Q22EnetlosstonarrowslightlyQoQtoRMB20bndespiteCurrentPriceUS1002lowerrevenueandgrossmarginQoQAlthoughasimilarlevelofoperatinglosscouldoccurinFY23EversusFY22EonourestimateswebelieveinvestorswouldChinaAutoSectorfocusmoreonXpengssalesvolumegrowthinFY23Ewhichiskeytoitslong-termsurvivalasitsRMB35bnnetcashpositioncouldstillsupportXpengfor2-SHIJiCFA3yearsItisstilldifficulttoquantifytheimprovementaftertheorganizational85237618728shijicmbicomhkstructureandpersonnelchangesbutthehardlessonlearntcouldmakemanagementmorefocusedandcostcautiousDouWenjingCFA852693947514Q22EearningspreviewXpengs4Q22salesvolumeslightlybeatitspriordouwenjingcmbicomhkguidancewiththeG9accountingfor28ThatcouldpartiallyoffsetthemargindentfromsalesvolumeQoQdeclineandhigherincentivecostsWeStockDataprojectXpengs4Q22Egrossmargintobe11223pptslowerthan3Q22MktCapUSmn8644AccordinglyweexpectXpengsoperatinglosstowidenQoQin4Q22ENetAvg3mthstoUSmn305losscouldnarrowslightlyQoQtoRMB20bnassumingforexgainamidRMB52wHighLowUS4073641appreciationagainstUSDin4Q22TotalIssuedSharesmn1724SourceBloombergSalesvolumegrowthtobefocalpointinFY23EWeprojectXpengsFY23Esalesvolumetorise28YoYto155000unitsaidedbytwonewShareholdingStructuremodelsandthreefaceliftedversionsofexistingmodelsWeexpectnewHeXiaopeng212TaobaoChina112platformsandbetterproductmixtopartiallyoffsetXpengsmarginpressureOthers676fromstiffercompetitionandthereforeproject13grossmargininFY23ESourceBloombergWeforecastXpengsnetlosstonarrowslightlyinFY23EversusFY22EassumingnosignificantforexlossOntheotherhandwebelieveinvestorsSharePerformancewouldlikelyfocusonXpengssalesvolumegrowthinFY23EespeciallyonAbsoluteRelative1-mth67-63newmodels3-mth454-04StillhaschancetoturnaroundItisstilltooearlytodrawtheconclusion6-mth-587-681SourceBloombergwhetherXpengcouldsurvivethroughouttheheightenedNEVcompetitiongivenitsRMB35bnnetcashpositionHoweverwebelieveLiAutoLIUS12-mthPricePerformanceBUYandNIONIOUSBUYnowarebetterpositionedthanXpengtobeaUSXPEVUSMSCIChinarebasedlong-termwinner50ValuationKeyrisksWemaintainourBUYratingandcuttargetpriceslightly40fromUS2000toUS1800stillbasedon25xofourrevisedFY23E30revenueestimatesalowertargetvaluationthanLiAutoLIUSBUYandNIONIOUSBUYgivenitslowerprojectedsalesvolumegrowthKeyrisks20toourratingandtargetpriceincludeslowerautonomousdrivingtechnology10advancementandafastercatchupfromotherautomakerslowersales0volumeandorgrossmarginthanweexpectaswellasasectorde-rating2022-012022-042022-072022-10EarningsSummarySourceBloombergYE31DecFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24EAuditorPricewaterhouseCoopersRevenueRMBmn584420988271004106051380ZhongTianYoYgrowth15182591291515251NetincomeRMBmn48904863873373896462EPSRMB648296512431375RelatedReportsYoYgrowthNANANANANAXpengIncShort-termnegativeshavePSx4225211411beenpricedin1Dec2022PBx0712172230YieldNANANANANAROE354127231247281NetgearingNetcashNetcashNetcashNetcashNetcashSourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk1Feb2023Figure1QuarterlyresultsRMBmn1Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q223Q224Q22EYoYQoQSalesvolumeunits1334017398256664175134561344222957022204-468-249ASPRMB22120921619022286020492921570421603523075724253118351Revenue29513761572085567455743668235385-371-211Grossprofit3304498211023911809923603-411-347RDexpenses53586412641451122112651499161511378SGAexpenses7211031153820151642166516261485-263-87Operatingprofit9041443180324301920209121772462NANANetprofit7871195159512871701270123761955NANAGrossmargin112119144120122109135112-08ppt-23pptOperatingmargin-306-384-315-284-258-281-319-457-173ppt-138pptNetmargin-267-318-279-150-228-363-348-363-213ppt-15pptSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure2EarningsrevisionNewOldDiffRMBmnFY22EFY23EFY24EFY22EFY23EFY24EFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenue27100410605138026999474696516204-135-212Grossprofit3246534776863270705711133-07-242-310Operatingprofit865183637224853068234008NANANANetprofit873373896462852758223148NANANAGrossmargin120130150121149171-01ppt-18ppt-21pptOperatingmargin-319-204-141-316-144-62-03ppt-60ppt-79pptNetmargin-322-180-126-316-123-48-06ppt-57ppt-77pptSourceCMBIGMestimatesFigure3CMBIestimatesvsconsensusCMBIGMConsensusDiffRMBmnFY22EFY23EFY24EFY22EFY23EFY24EFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenue271004106051380271824623967919-03-112-244Grossprofit3246534776863405667311588-46-199-337Operatingprofit865183637224852465233343NANANANetprofit873373896462831359002980NANANAGrossmargin120130150125144171-05ppt-14ppt-21pptOperatingmargin-319-204-141-314-141-49-06ppt-63ppt-91pptNetmargin-322-180-126-306-128-44-16ppt-52ppt-82pptSourceBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE21Feb2023FinancialSummaryIncomestatementCashflowYE31DecRMBmnFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24EYEsummary31DecRMBmnFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenue584420988271004106051380Profitbeforetaxation27314837868973896462Costofsales557818366238533571343693Depreciationamortization438838134323373515Grossprofit2662623324653477686Changeinworkingcapital249535841395702648Others340653993623531RDexp17264114560063006800Netcashfromoperating140109585235106829SGAexp29215305641781109110Otherincome872181207001000Capex136243186650915010150Operatingprofit42946579865183637224Others304428758798962533976Netcashfrominvesting440633076133928976174Netfinancecosts111688901474262Othernon-operexp14521055940500500Shareissuance2739913110---Pre-taxprofit27314837868973896462Netborrowings352143854990038002Others72831660---Incometax12643--Netcashfromfinancing3433014627854990038002Accronpreferredshares2158----Netprofit48904863873373896462Netchangeincash2978419543136510001000Cashatbeginningofyear240831542116351300014000Exchangedifference650363---Cashattheendofyear3154211635130001400015000BalancesheetKeyratiosYE31DecRMBmnFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24EYE31DecFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24ECurrentassets3967948831443764397047450SalesmixCashequivalents2920911025123901339014390Vehiclesales949955929943945Accountreceivables11292673371256257038Servicesandothers5145715755Inventories13432662326844034788Othercurrentassets799832470250072055221234GrowthRevenue15182591291515251Non-currentassets502816821220883075435307GrossprofitNA8860238647438PPE3082542594611653423412OperatingprofitNANANANANAIntangibles608879893899894NetprofitNANANANANAOthernon-currentassets133810517117331332111001Totalassets4470765651664647472382757ProfitlossratioGrossmargin46125120130150Currentliabilities783718013270724118355365Operatingmargin735313319204141Bankborrowings173-80691659225095Netprofitmargin837232322180126Accountpayables511212362130701761221547Currentdeferredrevenue16441865811111679BalancesheetratioOthercurrentliabilities23895232527458687045Netcashtotalequityx1010080502Currentratiox5127161109Non-currentliabilities24405492585873357588Receivableturnoverdays7146505050Bankborrowings16451675215526352135Inventoryturnoverdays8853504540Othernon-currentliabilities7953817370347005453Payableturnoverdays334246200180180Totalliabilities1027723505329304851962954ProfitabilityMezzanineequity-----ROE354127231247281Ordinaryshares00000ROA1818813210582Reserves3443042146335342620519803Shareholdersequity3443042147335342620519803PersharedataRMBTotalequityandliabilities4470765651664647472382757EPS-648-296-512-431-375DPSNANANANANASourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE31Feb2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE4