研究报告全文：MN8Feb2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdateWeiboWBUSRecoveryonthehorizondespiteSTpressureTargetPriceUS2780Weibofacedpressurein4Q22EduetotighterregulationsonentertainmentPreviousTPUS2030contentandextremedisruptionsonadspromotionsfromresurgenceofCOVIDUpDownside172inDec2022HencewelowerFY224Q22Etotalrevenueforecastby14CurrentPriceUS2373MarketnowlooksaheadtorecoverypotentialinonlineadsdemanddrivenbyChinasreopeningandconsumptionrecoveryThespeedofeconomicactivitiesChinaInternetrecoverypostChineseNewYearisaheadofourpreviousexpectationwhichSaiyiHECFAshouldsupportWeibosrevenuerecoveryinFY23EInviewofthisweraiseour85239161739totalrevenueforecastinFY23Eby2Weexpectthereaccelerationinrevenuehesaiyicmbicomhkgrowthtoenhanceoperatingleverageandsupportnon-GAAPnetincometogrow137YoYinFY2324EGiventhere-ratingofonlineadsectorcurrentWentaoLUluwentaocmbicomhk18xFY23EPEvsprevious12xFY23EPEinNov2022andenhancedearningsgrowthoutlookweliftourtargetpricetoUS278basedon12xFY23EPEYeTAOpreviousUS203basedon9xFY23PEor09xFY23EPEGMaintainBUYfranktaocmbicomhkExpectgradualrecoverythroughoutFY23EWeforecasttotalrevenuetoStockDatadeclineby28YoYand2QoQtoUS445mnin4Q22E3Q22-25MktCapUSmn54296YoYasmacroheadwindandresurgenceofCOVIDcasescontinuedtoAvg3mthstoUSmn185weighonadbudgetThestrictregulationsonentertainmentcontentalso52wHighLowUS32501071impactedWeibosuserengagementandadinventoryin4Q22WeforecastTotalIssuedSharesmn2288adVASrevenuetodeclineby2920YoYandrepresent8812oftotalSourceFactSetrevenuein4Q22EWeestimatenon-GAAPnetincometodropby37YoYShareholdingStructurebutgrowby3YoYtoUS123mnin4Q22EprimarilyduetoYoYrevenueSina401declineandcontentinvestmentssuchastheWorldCupeventThatsaidAlibaba287weexpecttheworstisoverfrom4Q22onwardsandgradualrevenueSourceCompanydatarecoverytotakeplacethroughoutFY23EsupportedbyimprovingmacroSharePerformanceenvironmentWeforecastWeibostotalrevenuetogrowby55YoYorAbsoluteRelative65onconstantcurrencyinFY23FY24E1-mth20672SteadymarginimprovementinFY2324EWeforecastGPMtoslightly3-mth802601improvefrom788inFY22Eto790790inFY2324Eduetomore6-mth252333SourceFactSetprudentcontrolincontentinvestmentThereaccelerationinrevenuegrowthshouldenhanceoperatingleverageandweestimatenon-GAAPoperating12-mthPricePerformancemargintoincreasefrom308inFY22Eto310313inFY2324EWeforecastWeibosnon-GAAPnetincometogrowby137YoYinFY2324EFY22E-33YoYMaintainBUYWeibocurrentlytradesat10xFY23Enon-GAAPPEwhichisa57discounttothesectoraveragePEandjustifiedbyitssolidearningsgrowth08xFY23EPEGofferingattractiverisk-rewardTherecoveryinconsumptionsentimentwillbeakeycatalystforsupportingWeibosfurtherSourceFactSetre-ratingasitsaddemandrelativelyconcentratedonconsumption-relatedsectorslikeFMCG3Ce-commerceEarningsSummaryYE31DecFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenueUSmn16902257183319202017YoYgrowth443361884750Grossmargin821821788790790OperatingprofitUSmn507697431465501YoYgrowth1523763827879AdjustednetprofitUSmn54757185484054705844YoYgrowth14131232613068EPSAdjustedUS241314212239255ConsensusEPSUS241314207223248PSx3224302827Non-GAAPPEx997711610396SourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk8Feb2023ForecastupdateandvaluationWelowerourFY224Q22Etotalrevenueforecastby14inviewofthestrictregulationsonentertainmentcontentandimpactsfromCOVIDresurgenceinDecember2022HoweverChinasrecoveryaftertheChineseNewYearisfasterthanourpreviousexpectationwhichshouldsupportWeibosrevenueandearningsgrowthinFY23EWeraiseFY23Etotalrevenueforecastnon-GAAPnetincomeforecastby23asaresultFigure1WeiboforecastrevisionCurrentPreviousChangeUSmnFY22EFY23EFY24EFY22EFY23EFY24EFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenue183319202017184818732040-0825-12GrossProfit144515171593145414731609-0630-10Adjustednetprofit484547584489531566-103132AdjustedEPSRMB202325212224-103132GrossMargin78879079078778678901ppt04ppt01pptAdjustednetmargin264285290265283278-01ppt02ppt12pptSourceCMBIGMestimatesFigure2CMBIGMestimatesvsconsensusCMBIGMConsensusDiffUSmnFY22EFY23EFY24EFY22EFY23EFY24EFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenue183319202017185418892014-111701GrossProfit144515171593146114921591-111701Adjustednetprofit484547584488533576-092715AdjustedEPSRMB202325212324-092515GrossMargin78879079078879079000ppt00ppt00pptAdjustednetmargin26428529026328228601ppt02ppt04pptSourceBloombergCMBIGMestimatesFigure3WeibokeyfinancialforecastsUSmn20212022E2023E2024E4Q22EAdvertisingrevenue1981159816971794392YoY333-1936257-288VASrevenue27623522322353YoY356-150-5200-196Totalrevenue2257183319202017445YoY336-1884750-278Grossprofitmargin821788790790788SM262265263258295RD191222220220205Non-GAAPnetmargin318264285290275Non-GAAPnetprofit719484547584122YoY312-32613068-374SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesWeexpectthereaccelerationinrevenuegrowthtoenhanceoperatingleverageandsupportnon-GAAPnetincometogrow137YoYinFY2324EGiventhere-ratingofonlineadsectorcurrent18xFY23EPEvsprevious12xFY23EPEinNov2022andenhancedearningsgrowthoutlookweliftourtargetpricetoUS278basedon12xFY23EPEpreviousUS203basedon9xFY23PEMaintainBUYPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE28Feb2023Figure4WeibopeervaluationcomparisonCompaniesTickerPriceAdjEPSgrowthYoYPExEPSCAGRLC2022E2023E2024E2022E2023E2024E2021-2024EFocusMedia002027CH6637629421830519115542BaiduBIDUUS16021112913019517315381MetaMETAUS19168622719622317214105GoogleGOOGLUS1076424597229236192161103Average240182153SourceBloombergCMBIGMNotedataareasof7Feb2023PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE38Feb2023FinancialSummaryINCOMESTATEMENT2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecUSmnRevenue176716902257183319202017Costofgoodssold329302404389403424Grossprofit143813881853144515171593Operatingexpenses8418811156101410521092Sellingexpense465456592486505520Adminexpense91101133121125128RDexpense284324431407422444Operatingprofit598507697431465501Othergainslosses4217517631000Interestincome474430223746Pre-taxprofit602376551100501548Incometax1106113954100110Aftertaxprofit49331541246401438Minorityinterest211611617Netprofit49531342847417456Adjustednetprofit637547719484547584BALANCESHEET2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecUSmnCurrentassets363648354803386342144626Cashequivalents145318152424164118672141Accountreceivables422492723587615646Prepayment425297451349358369Othercurrentassets133622311205128613751471Non-currentassets116815012717274627712791PPE476168748186InvestmentinJVsassos102711791208123112501265Goodwill47209297297297297Othernon-currentassets47521143114311431143Totalassets480463357520660969857418Currentliabilities8019582159187318711893Accountpayables126150198131137144Taxpayable100103145145145145Othercurrentliabilities109144988971974978Accruedexpenses466562829627615626Non-currentliabilities172224901672679625563Long-termborrowings172224901672679625563Totalliabilities252234493832255324962455Sharecapital111013261679167916791679Retainedearnings117414871915195223702825Totalshareholdersequity228328123594363140484504Minorityinterest1749496112129Totalequityandliabilities480463357520627966567088PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE48Feb2023CASHFLOW2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecUSmnOperatingProfitbeforetaxation602376551100501548Depreciationamortization304155474750Taxpaid1106113954100110Changeinworkingcapital3714942585030Others47913053211617Netcashfromoperations632403814356415476InvestingCapitalexpenditure355035535456Netproceedsfromdisposalofshort-term837731871717886investmentsOthers361621259231915Netcashfrominvesting1234719424147151157FinancingNetborrowings82560219935462Proceedsfromshareissues00188000Others475011617Netcashfromfinancing8216781899923845NetchangeincashCashatthebeginningoftheyear123514531815242416411867Exchangedifference0029000Cashattheendoftheyear145318152424164118672141GROWTH2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecRevenue28443361884750Grossprofit02353352215050Operatingprofit191523763827879Netprofit135367367889779892Adjnetprofit2114131232613068PROFITABILITY2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecGrossprofitmargin814821821788790790Operatingmargin338300309235242249Adjnetprofitmargin361324318264285290ReturnonequityROE24612313413109107GEARINGLIQUIDITYACTIVITIES2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecCurrentratiox455022212324Receivableturnoverdays87210631169116911691169Payableturnoverdays140118061786123012411241VALUATION2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecPENon-GAAP87997711610396PB513131151312SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesNoteThecalculationofnetcashincludesfinancialassetsPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE58Feb2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBISwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE6