>> 招银国际-China Property Sector – Property+ Weekly： hopes are returning post-CNY-230209
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研究报告全文：9Feb2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchSectorUpdateChinaPropertySectorPropertyWeeklyhopesarereturningpost-OUTPERFORMCNYMaintainDespitelaggingconstructionactivitypropertysalesstartedtopickuppost-CNYagaincorrectlypredictedbyourleadingindicatorGAINInparticularnewhomeChinaPropertySectorsalesin30citiesnarrowedYoYdeclineto-12post-CNYvs-25pre-CNYvsMiaoZhangthesimilarperiodin2022Existinghomemarketisseeingmuchstronger85237618910momentumwithsalesin9majorcities38YoYpost-CNYvs15YoYpre-zhangmiaocmbicomhkCNYThishasslightlyoverturnedinvestorsnegativeviewonsalesrecoveryWiththepolicyrelaxationinChangshaWuhanandpotentialonesinTier1citiesJeffreyZengwethinkthechanceishighstartingfromGuangzhouthismaygivemorehopes85239163727tothesalesrecoveryatleastinFebAsforstockspickwecontinuetofavorjeffreyzengcmbicomhkBEKEBEKEUSBUYthekeybeneficiaryofexistinghomesalesboompropertymanagementYuexiuService6626HKandCOPH2669HKonBellaLiearningsanddevelopersCRLLongforonshoppingmallsandBinjiangHuafa85237576202HoldingspotentialShanghairelaxationbellalicmbicomhkPost-CNYsalesimprovedwithsecondarysalesgrowthacceleratedBasedondailydatanewhomeandsecondarysalesrecorded-1238RelatedReportsYoYpost-CNY28Janto7Febwhencomparedtothesimilarperiodin20221CRLand1109HKBothexceedmarketexpectationgivenasluggishCNYbutthisisinlinewithOutperformingFY22EpromisingourCNYchannelcheckreportandmore-bullish-than-marketviewsonexistingFY23Eandnot-far-fetchingFY25EtargethomesalesLookingforwardwestillexpectsalesinFebtocontinueseeingSTrecoverysupportedby1lowbase2Pent-updemandafterpandemic2ChinaPropertySectorPropertyandCNYOursalesleadingindicatorGAINalsopointedtoaquickreboundWeeklyWeakconstructionresumptionratedraggedbyinFebwithgenuinesearchup25YoYYTD3ContinuingpolicyrelaxationpropertywithWuhanChangshaeasedpurchaserestrictionsAssuchwereiteratethatpolicyrelaxationinTier1citieswouldbethekeytodetermineMarchsales3COLI688HKFY22EpreviewpagenotyetturnedandbeyondThechanceisrelativelyhighinGuangzhoubasedonthenewsAslowpickupinconstructionactivityAccordingto100NJZschannel4ChinaPropertySectorCNYCrowdedmallspent-upbuyersbutcheckamong12220projectstheworkresumptionrateremainslowat384overbuilthousesonthe17thdaysincethebeginningofCNYvs51inthesameperiodof2022ItwasmainlydraggedbypropertyconstructionsinfrarelativelybetterByregionSouthChinastillperformedtheworstinconstructionsduetothetightcashflowofdevelopersandgovernmentsleadtolowmoneycollectionexpectationofconstructioncompaniesWhileNorthSouthwestwerebetteronthebackofquickrecoveryofinfraprojectsactivefundinflowCementpriceedgeddownonweakerconstructionsAsof7Febnationalcementpricedipped05WoWtoRMB448mtandstorageratioremainshighat74asitisusuallyoff-seasonpost-CNYandtheworkconsumptionrateisparticularlylowinthisyearthustheweakdemanddrovesomefactorieslikethoseinHebeitocutpriceinexchangeforsalesvolumeSteelrebarpricewentdown2WoWtoRMB4254permtasof7FebpartlydrivenbybothslowdemandrecoveryandpricefallofironoreOtherMaterialsAluminumIngotpriceinchedup017WoWMoMtoRMB18995mtandFloatglasspricerampedup075WoWMoMon7FebtoRMB1681mtbothbackedbybetterhousingcompletiondrivenbydirectfundingsupportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk9Feb2023Figure1YTDsalesdeclined30YoYvs-21-25inDecNov2022SourceWindCMBIGMFigure2Jansecondarysalesdeclined12YoYvs-1225inDecNov2022SourceWindCMBIGMFigure3LeadingindicatorsuggestsbettersalesYTD2023SourceNBSCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE29Feb2023Figure4AvgpriceofbulkcementPO425national-wideSourceMySteelCMBIGMFigure5NationalcementstorageratioSourceMySteelCMBIGMFigure6SteelrebarpriceSourceMySteelCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE39Feb2023Figure7AluminumIngotpriceSourceMySteelCMBIGMFigure85mmplainfloatglasspriceSourceMySteelCMBIGMFigure9CompsheetofdevelopersSourceBBGCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE49Feb2023Figure10CompsheetofpropertysupplychainSourceBBGCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE59Feb2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE6
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