研究报告全文：13Feb2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchEconomicPerspectivesChinaEconomyMildReflationafterReopeningChinasinflationinJanuarywasbelowexpectationsamidamildreflationafterBingnanYEPhDreopeningTheresumptioninhousingmarketdurableconsumptionand85269895170businesscapexshouldbeinagradualmannerSomemanufacturingsectorsmayyebingnancmbicomhkfacedeflationpressureamidoverseasrecessionriskanddestockingcycleTherewillbenooverheatingriskinChinaslabormarketasemploymentconditionKevinZhangshouldimproveverygraduallyChinasGDPgrowthremainsfarbelowits85253364682potentialgrowthandthereflationshouldbemildThepriorityforthecountryistokevinzhangcmbicomhkboostconfidenceandgrowthespeciallyintheprivatesectorThereforetheliquidityandcreditpolicyshouldremainaccommodativeinthecountryin2023CPIgrowthwasslightlybelowexpectationsinJanuaryTheYoYgrowthYoY16ofconsumerpriceindexCPIrosefrom18inDecemberto21inJanuary14slightlybelowmarketexpectationsFromMoMperspectiveCPIroseby081210inJanuaryafterhavingunchangedinDecemberByitemfoodprices86increasedby28MoMupfromtheMoMgrowthof23inlastDecember4duetoChineseNewYearholidayFreshvegetablesandfruitspricesrose20sharplyby196and92respectivelyDuetoabundantsupplyoflivepigs2howeverporkpricedecreased108MoMinJanuaryWithrisingglobal46recessionriskenergypricescontinuedtoretreatasChinasgasolineand20192020202120222023dieselpricesrespectivelyfellby24and26MoMinJanuaryCPIPPISourceWindCMBIGMCoreCPIgrowthgraduallyreboundedafterreopeningCoreCPIrose1YoYYoYYoYinJanuaryafterclimbing07YoYlastDecemberduetoareflationin340someservicesectorsliketransportationrecreationtourismhousecleaning330andvehiclerepairmaintenanceInthoseservicesectorsdemand220reboundedquicklywhilesupplyhadconstraintsduetothelaborshortagein210CNYholidayaswellasthecapacityreductionafterthepandemicInJanuary10airticketsvehicleleasefeesmovieticketsandtourismpricesrespectively110increasedby203130107and93MoMMeanwhilehouse020cleaningpetcarevehiclerepairmaintenanceandhaircutpricesalso130increasedby3-6inJanuary20192020202120222023CoreCPILHSPPIcontinuedtodeclineamidthedisinflationtrendinmostcommoditiesFoodpriceRHSFuelpriceRHSPPIdropped08YoYinJanuaryafterdecreasingby07lastDecemberSourceWindCMBIGMFromMoMperspectivePPIcontinuedtodecline04inJanuaryafterdropping05inthepreviousmonthCommoditypricesretreatedasoverseaspolicyratesandrecessionriskincreasedInJanuarypetroleumcoalprocessingpricedroppedby32MoMandrawchemicalmaterialproductpricedeclinedby13MoMMeanwhileferrousmetalpriceincreasedby15MoMafterrising04MoMlastDecemberasChinasreopeningboostedsentimentinsteelmarketMedicinepriceroseby06MoMinJanuaryaspeoplesdemandincreasedafterthepandemicwaveWeexpectCPItorise22in2023afterincreasing2in2022andPPItodrop05in2023afterrising41in2022ChinasreflationafterreopeningshouldbemildFirstlyhousingsalesanddurableconsumptionshouldfollowagradualandslowresumptioninfuturePropertysalesvolumemaydrop75in2023afterdeclining243in2022SecondlyglobaleconomyfacesrecessionriskanddisinflationprocessassomeChinesemanufacturingsectorswithhighdependenceonexportsmayseedeflationpressureThirdlythereisnooverheatingriskinChinaslabormarketasPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk13Feb2023unemploymentpressureisstillhighWenotethehousingrentinurbanregioncontinuedtodecline06YoYinJanuaryafterdropping07YoYlastDecemberItindicatestheemploymentandwageconditionoftheyouthisstillnotgoodLookingforwardChinasCPIgrowthmaymildlyclimbfrom2in2022to22in2023and25in2024asporkandservicepricesgraduallyreboundThePPImaycontinuetodeclinein1H23andnoticeablyreboundin2H23WeexpectthePPItodrop02in2023andtorise16in2024afterincreasing41in2022Liquidityandcreditpolicyshouldremainaccommodativein2023ChinasGDPgrowthremainsfarbelowpotentialgrowthandthereflationismildThepriorityforthecountryistoboosttheconfidenceandgrowthespeciallyintheprivatesectorThereforetheliquidityandcreditpolicyshouldremainaccommodativein2023ItispossibletoseeadditionalmoderatecutsinRRRandLPRsthisyearPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE213Feb2023Figure1MoMChangesofChinaConsumerPricesFigure2ChinaAgriculturalProductPriceMoM2015100Communicationfacility150MeatClothing140HouseholdfacilityservicesGrain130HealthcareTransportationfacility120CoreCPIServices110EducationculturerecreationFood100GasolineCPI90201820192020202120222023420246AgriculturalproductpriceVegetablepriceSourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMFigure3ChinaPorkPriceandSupplyFigure4FeedProductionHog-to-grainRatioRMBKgmnX55353520503030184525162520401420153512301015105251008205615510410020152016201720182019202020212022202320162017201820192020202120222023PorkpriceLHSNumberoflivehogslaughteredRHSFeedproductionYoYLHSHog-to-grainraioRHSSourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMFigure5ChinaCoreCPIGrowth2YT-bondRatesFigure6ChinasPPIGrowthinCommodityYoY41201003806024020102004060120182019202020212022202320162017201820192020202120222023CoalMiningOilGasMiningCoreCPIYoY2YT-bondratesFerrousMetalsNon-ferrousMetalsSourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE313Feb2023Figure7ChinaPPIGrowthinEquipmentFigure8ChinasPPIGrowthbyProductYoYProcessingoffuelMoM3ChemicalMaterials2RubberPlasticProducts1Non-metallicMineralProducts0MetalProducts1GeneralPurposeMachineryNon-autotransportequip2Non-ferrousMetals3201820192020202120222023MedicinesGeneralequipFerrousMetalsAutoComputertelcomelectronicequip4321012SourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMFigure9GlobalM2GrowthCommodityPriceFigure10GlobalSupplyChainPressureYoYYoYindexindex2570405000602035450050304000154030253500102020300010515250000101020002051500530010001040201320142015201620172018201920202021202220235500100M2growthofUSCNJPEurozoneLHS201820192020202120222023RJCRBindexRHSNewYorkPMIdeliverytimeLHSBDIRHSSourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMFigure11ManufacturingCapacityUtilisationRatioFigure12GoldPriceandUSRealInterestRatesUSOunce90220040851800308020140010751000007060010652002060200720092011201320152017201920212023201820192020202120222023IDCgoldspotLHSChinaUSJapanGermanyFranceUS10YTipsimpliedrealratesRHSSourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE413Feb2023Figure13Copper-to-GoldPriceRatioFigure14ChinaAutoHousingSalesGrowthX421033214021107020112013202320092010201220142015201620172018201920202021202210YTIPSbreak-eveninflationLHSCoppertogoldpriceratioRHSSourceWindCMBIGMSourceBloombergCMBIGMFigure15LandRevenueInfrastructureInvestmentFigure16ChinaFiscalRevenueExpenditureYoYYoYYoY3MMA602580502060401530402010105200001052020301040401520172018201920202021202260LocalgovernmentlandrevenueLHS201720182019202020212022InfrastructureinvestmentRHSFiscalrevenueFiscalexpenditureSourceBloombergCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMFigure17OperationRateofAsphaltPlantinFigure18MobilityIndexinChinasTier-oneCitiesChina7065605550454035302520201820192020202120222023OperationRateofAsphaltPlantSourceBloombergCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE513Feb2023Figure19PBOCPolicyRatesFigure20LiquidityEasingM2ExpansionYoY1541413312112109182014201520162017201820192020202120222023OvernightShiborLHSM2GrowthRHSSourceBloombergCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE613Feb2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBIGMGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBIGMGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBIGMGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBIGMGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE7