研究报告全文：10Feb2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchSectorUpdateChinaInsuranceDivergentjumpstartperformanceamonglifeOUTPERFORMinsurersMaintainThe2023jumpstartperformanceYTDofChineselifeinsurersaredivergentChinaFinancialsSectoraccordingtoourchannelcheckWhilemostinsurancecompaniescontinuedsufferingfromnewbusinessdeclinesgiventheweaker-than-expectedpre-saleGigiChenCFA85239163739performanceamidCOVIDoutbreaksinDec2022ChinaLiferecordedadecentgigichencmbicomhkFYPgrowththankstoitsearlylaunchofpre-salesinceOct2022WealsonotethattheNBVmomentumofCPICandPingAnelevatedsubstantiallysincemid-NikaMAJan2023drivenby1enhancedagentproductivityonthebackofproactive85239000805agencyreformand2consistentstrongdemandsforsavingsproductsWeaddnikamacmbicomhkChinaLife-H2628HKtoourtoppicksgivenitsoutperformanceonnewbusinessgrowthYTDaturnaroundof750-daymovingavgof10-Yrgovernmentbondyieldsin1H23andthecurrentundemandingvaluationStocksCoveredTargetTickerRatingUpsideQualityplayerstoleadtherecoveryAsindividualinvestorsdemandsofPriceguaranteedyieldproductspromptingashiftofhouseholdwealthallocation2318HKBuy8030394towardsinsurancewebelievelifequalityplayerswhichproactivelyupgraded601318CHBuy6933429theiragencyforcewillleadtherecoveryanddeliverstronger-than-peers2628HKBuy2085545growthfortheirretainedandenhancedsalesandservicecapacitytowell601628CHSell2160-353capturetheincomingnewbusinessflowsOntheotherhandinsurersthatare2601HKBuy2972426stillsufferingfromthedownscaleofcoreagencyforcewillbelaggardonVNBmomentumAsflaggedinour2023outlookreportlinkwebelievethe601601CHBuy3080196divergenceofmajorlifeinsurersnewbusinessgrowthwillsustaininto20231336HKBuy2722357AdjustFY23EVNBforecastsandrolloverTPstoFY23EWeadjustlife601336CHSell2704-100insurersFY23EVNBforecaststoreflectthedivergenceofjumpstartsales966HKHold1183209performancesYTDasweexpectChinaLifeandCPICwilloutperformmajor1339HKBuy399534peersinnewbusinessgrowthinFY23EGiventhatwerolloverTPsfrom601319CHSell430-144FY23EtoFY24EasshowninFig1LifeinsurersHsharesarecurrently2328HKBuy1244711tradingat037xPEVFY23Eand078xPBVFY23Ebasedonamarketcap6060HKBuy3382448weightedaveragemethodwellbelowtheavg5-yrPEV-1SDat039xandSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesavg5-yrPBV-1SDat094xWebelievethesequentialimprovementsonMarketpriceofindividualstocksarequotedby400pmon8Feb2023afterthemarketclosefundamentalswillsupportthesectorvaluationin2023WeaddChinaLife-H2628HKtoourtoppicksgivenitsoutperformanceinnewbusinessgrowthandundemandingvaluationtradingat023xPEVFY23Evsa5-yravgPEVRecentReportsat097xWealsolikeCPIC-H2601HKandPingAn-H2318HKfortheir1ChinaInsurance-FY21resultspreviewenhancedagentqualitylinkValuationTable2ChinaInsurance-OverhangremovedMktCapPricePEVxPBxROERegulationonsalesactivitiesnearlyfinalizedlinkNameTickerLCbnLCFY23EFY24EFY23EFY24EFY23EFY24E3ChinaInsurance1H22resultspreviewPingAn2318HK85274576005x05x10x09x141148linkChinaLife2628HK73139135002x02x06x06x801024ChinaStrategyOutlook2023HKStocksCPIC2601HK20539208503x03x07x06x108118toReboundasChinaUSEconomiesNCL1336HK8649200502x02x04x04x83114DivergelinkTaiping966HK295697901x01x04x03x3176PICCGroup1339HK2086926003x03x04x04x111112PICCPC2328HK17084727nana06x05x141146ZhongAn6060HK30132335nana15x14x5888PingAnA601318CH73993485005x05x09x09x141148ChinaLife-A601628CH65041334107x06x19x18x80102CPIC-A601601CH17691257504x04x10x09x108118NCL-A601336CH7538300403x03x-01x07x83114PICCGrp-A601319CH1819350307x06x09x08x111112Average05x05x08x07x100117SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesMarketpriceofindividualstocksarequotedby4pmon8Feb2023afterthemarketclosePLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk10Feb2023Figure1ChineseinsurersTPandRatingsChangesTickerPrevRatingPrevTPLCNewRatingNewTPLCTPChgPingAn2318HKBuy7555Buy803063601318CHBuy6523Buy693363ChinaLife2628HKBuy1781Buy2085171601628CHSell1774Sell2160218CPIC2601HKBuy2519Buy2972180601601CHBuy2499Buy3080232NCL1336HKBuy2722Buy272200601336CHSell2597Sell270441Taiping966HKHold1119Buy118358PICCGroup1339HKBuy395Buy39909601319CHSell410Sell43050PICCPC2328HKBuy1274Buy1244-23ZhongAn6060HKBuy2939Buy3382151SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure2ChineseinsurersValuationcomparisonPBVDividendyieldTickerCompanyPriceLCRatingTPLCUpsideFY21FY22EFY23EFY24EFY21FY22EFY23EFY24E2318HKPingAn5760Buy80303911x10x10x09x494457652628HKChinaLife1350Buy20855407x07x06x06x564256642601HKCPIC2085Buy29724308x07x07x06x565260721336HKNCL2005Buy27223605x05x04x04x835275107966HKTaiping979Buy11832104x04x04x03x472359701339HKPICCGroup260Buy3995305x04x04x04x7390931032328HKPICCPC727Buy12447107x06x06x05x6585941066060HKZhongAn2335Buy33824515x16x15x14x00000000601318CHPingAn4850Buy69334311x10x09x09x50455866601628CHChinaLife3341Sell2160-3520x20x19x18x19151922601601CHCPIC2575Buy30802011x11x10x09x39364250601336CHNCL3004Sell2704-1009x08x-01x07x48304362601319CHPICCGroup503Sell430-1410x09x09x08x33404246PEVGroupNewBusinessMultiplierROEFY21FY22EFY23EFY24EFY21FY22EFY23EFY24EFY21FY22EFY23EFY24E2318HKPingAn07x06x05x05x129x214x270x312x1291191411482628HKChinaLife03x03x02x02x195x259x278x296x118110801022601HKCPIC03x03x03x03x243x412x450x472x1251211081181336HKNCL02x02x02x02x343x696x785x767x15414283114966HKTaiping02x01x01x01x200x260x300x312x788431761339HKPICCGroup03x03x03x03x734x119x127x134x102115111112601318CHPingAn06x06x05x05x134x221x278x319x129119141148601628CHChinaLife08x07x07x06x58x96x123x149x11811080102601601CHCPIC05x05x04x04x187x328x370x399x125121108118601336CHNCL04x04x03x03x276x564x641x629x15414283114601319CHPICCGroup08x07x07x06x256x503x615x716x102115111112PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE210Feb2023PCpremiumgrowthCombinedratioExpenseratioFY21FY22EFY23EFY24EFY21FY22EFY23EFY24EFY21FY22EFY23EFY24E2318HKPingAn-551041041049809809809803103093093092601HKCPIC331168081990990990990294294294294966HKTaiping5425505010591030101010103504504504502328HKPICCPC38831001009969769769762592502502506060HKZhongAn02020202996991988987420415424425SourceCompanydataCMBIGMMarketpriceofindividualstocksarequotedby4pmon8Feb2023afterthemarketcloseFigure3ChineseinsurersForecastrevisionsNewforecastOldforecastChangeRMBFY23EFY24EFY23EFY24EFY23EFY24EVNBshare152163185205-176-203EVshare908410072913610169-06-10PingAnEPS704803704807-01-05BVPS519656785197568200-01VNBshare141148152167-75-111EVshare5068554250845579-03-07ChinaLifeEPS17720317120532-11BVPS1791187817971888-04-06VNBshare098107103117-49-84EVshare618968366188684400-01CPICEPS2993622843455449BVPS26612955263129131114VNBshare089093123131-282-295EVshare86798829863287850505NCLEPS434618464564-6697BVPS3975446340484472-18-02VNBshare203212274287-260-261EVshare7060759771527753-13-20TaipingEPS194230167196158173BVPS2690296527402932-1811VNBshare004004006006-263-270PICCEVshare76482376382401-02GroupEPS062068065071-39-40BVPS5836325816320300EPS1461641431612424PICCPCBVPS10771175107011630710ZhongAnEPS066108073133-94-190BVPS1336145714211570-60-72SourceCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE310Feb2023Figure410YrChinaGovernmentBondYields750-daymovingaverageSourceWindCMBIGMestimatesFigure5Quarterlyavgof10YrChinaGovernmentBondYieldsSourceWindCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE410Feb2023TradingBandsofLifePEVFig6Lifeinsurancesector12-monthforwardPEVFig7PingAn-H2318HK12-monthforwardPEVSourceCompanydataCMBIGMMarketpriceofindividualstocksareSourceCompanydataCMBIGMMarketpriceofindividualstocksarequotedby4pmon8Feb2023afterthemarketclosequotedby4pmon8Feb2023afterthemarketcloseFig8ChinaLife-H2628HK12-monthforwardPEVFig9CPIC-H2601HK12-monthforwardPEVSourceCompanydataCMBIGMMarketpriceofindividualstocksareSourceCompanydataCMBIGMMarketpriceofindividualstocksarequotedby4pmon8Feb2023afterthemarketclosequotedby4pmon8Feb2023afterthemarketcloseFig10NewChinaLife-H1336CH12-monthforwardPEVFig11ChinaTaiping-H966HK12-monthforwardPEVSourceCompanydataCMBIGMMarketpriceofindividualstocksareSourceCompanydataCMBIGMMarketpriceofindividualstocksarequotedby4pmon8Feb2023afterthemarketclosequotedby4pmon8Feb2023afterthemarketclosePLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE510Feb2023TradingBandsofLifePBVFig12Lifeinsurancesector12-monthforwardPBFig13PingAn-H2318HK12-monthforwardPBSourceCompanydataCMBIGMMarketpriceofindividualstocksareSourceCompanydataCMBIGMMarketpriceofindividualstocksarequotedby4pmon8Feb2023afterthemarketclosequotedby4pmon8Feb2023afterthemarketcloseFig14ChinaLife-H2628HK12-monthforwardPBFig15CPIC-H2601HK12-monthforwardPBSourceCompanydataCMBIGMMarketpriceofindividualstocksareSourceCompanydataCMBIGMMarketpriceofindividualstocksarequotedby4pmon8Feb2023afterthemarketclosequotedby4pmon8Feb2023afterthemarketcloseFig16NewChinaLife-H1336CH12-monthforwardPBFig17ChinaTaiping-H966HK12-monthforwardPBSourceCompanydataCMBIGMMarketpriceofindividualstocksareSourceCompanydataCMBIGMMarketpriceofindividualstocksarequotedby4pmon8Feb2023afterthemarketclosequotedby4pmon8Feb2023afterthemarketclosePLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE610Feb2023TradingBandsofPCPERFig18PICCPC-H2328HK12-monthforwardPEFig19PICCGroup-H1339HK12-monthforwardPESourceCompanydataCMBIGMMarketpriceofindividualstocksareSourceCompanydataCMBIGMMarketpriceofindividualstocksarequotedby4pmon8Feb2023afterthemarketclosequotedby4pmon8Feb2023afterthemarketcloseFig20PingAn-H2318HK12-monthforwardPEFig21CPIC-H2601HK12-monthforwardPESourceCompanydataCMBIGMMarketpriceofindividualstocksareSourceCompanydataCMBIGMMarketpriceofindividualstocksarequotedby4pmon8Feb2023afterthemarketclosequotedby4pmon8Feb2023afterthemarketcloseFig22ChinaTaiping-H966HK12-monthforwardPEFig23ChinaRe-H1508HK12-monthforwardPESourceCompanydataCMBIGMMarketpriceofindividualstocksareSourceCompanydataCMBIGMMarketpriceofindividualstocksarequotedby4pmon8Feb2023afterthemarketclosequotedby4pmon8Feb2023afterthemarketclosePLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE710Feb2023TradingBandsofPCPBVFig24PICCPC-H2328HK12-monthforwardPBFig25PICCGroup-H1339HK12-monthforwardPBSourceCompanydataCMBIGMMarketpriceofindividualstocksareSourceCompanydataCMBIGMMarketpriceofindividualstocksarequotedby4pmon8Feb2023afterthemarketclosequotedby4pmon8Feb2023afterthemarketcloseFig26PingAn-H2318HK12-monthforwardPBFig27CPIC-H2601HK12-monthforwardPBSourceCompanydataCMBIGMMarketpriceofindividualstocksareSourceCompanydataCMBIGMMarketpriceofindividualstocksarequotedby4pmon8Feb2023afterthemarketclosequotedby4pmon8Feb2023afterthemarketcloseFig28ChinaTaiping-H966HK12-monthforwardPBFig29ZhongAn-H6060HK12-monthforwardPBSourceCompanydataCMBIGMMarketpriceofindividualstocksareSourceCompanydataCMBIGMMarketpriceofindividualstocksarequotedby4pmon8Feb2023afterthemarketclosequotedby4pmon8Feb2023afterthemarketclosePLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE810Feb2023Fig30ChinaRe-H1508HK12-monthforwardPBSourceCompanydataCMBIGMMarketpriceofindividualstocksarequotedby4pmon8Feb2023afterthemarketclosePLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE910Feb2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankSSImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE10