研究报告全文：13Feb2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchEconomicPerspectivesChinaPolicyCreditgrowthisexpectedtoreboundin2023ChinasnewloansbeatexpectationsinJanuaryastheauthorityrequiredbanksBingnanYEPhDtofrontloadcreditsupplyandlocalgovernmentsSOEssoughtagoodstart85237618967amidthepro-growthshiftthisyearHowevercreditdemandinhouseholdsandyebingnancmbicomhkSMEsremainedweakasitmaytakelongerfortheprivatesectorstorestoretheirconfidenceToboostconfidenceandgrowthintheprivatesectorChinahastoKevinZhangcontinuetosendmarket-friendlysignalsandmaintainaccommodativeliquidity85253364682creditpolicythisyearThePBOCmaylaunchadditionalRRRandLPRcutstokevinzhangcmbicomhkboostthecreditgrowthNewRMBloansandtotalsocialfinancingareexpectedtoincreaseby12and10in2023afterrising5and21in2022NewloansbeatexpectationsinJanuaryasPBOCrequiredbankstofront50loadcreditsupplyNewRMBloansreachedRMB49trninJanuarymuch45higherthanRMB398tninthesameperiodlastyearTotalsocialfinancing40dropped32YoYinJanuaryafterdropping361in4Q22Specificallynew35RMBloanstorealsectorrose174YoYinJanuaryHoweverforeign30currencyloanscontinuedtodeclineamidexchangerateuncertaintyOff-25balancesheetOBSfinancingdecreasedby222YoYinJanuaryasrisk20aversionsentimenttowardspropertyprojectsremainedCorporatebond15financingdropped745YoYinJanuaryafterplunging1222YoYin4Q2210asthecautioussentimentinbondmarketremained20192020202120222023PBOC7DrepoBanks7DrepoCreditdemandinSOEswasstrongwhilethatinhouseholdsandSMEs1YLPR5YLPRremainedweakAsChinesepolicymakersshiftedtheirfocusfromCovidSourceWindCMBIGMcontroltoeconomicgrowthlocalgovernmentsandSOEsshowedstrongerYoYwillingnesstoincreasedebtforexpansionCreditdemandinlocalgovernment313financingvehiclesandSOEsseemedtoreboundnoticeablyNewmedium12andlongtermloanstocorporatesectorincreasedby667YoYtoRMB35tn211inJanuaryasmostofthoseloansshouldhavebeenallocatedtoprojectsoflocalgovernmentsandSOEsHowevercreditdemandintheprivatesector10remainedweakasitshouldtakelongerforhouseholdsandSMEstorestore19theirconfidenceWenotenewloanstohouseholdsectordropped695YoY8andbilldiscountfinancingwasnegativeinJanuary07Housingmarketandconsumptionmayrecoverinagradualmanner2017201820192020202120222023HousingsalesmayhaveremainedweakinJanuaryasnewmediumtolong7DShiborLHSM2YoYRHStermloanstohouseholdsectordropped699YoYafterdecreasing684SourceWindCMBIGMlastDecemberMeanwhileconsumptionmildlyimprovedasnewshort-termloanstohouseholdsectordeclined661YoYinJanuaryafterdropping1048YoYlastDecemberLookingforwardhousingmarketanddurableconsumptionmaygraduallyimproveTheeconomicreopeningshouldboostemploymentincomeandconfidencewhichispositiveforhousingmarketanddurableconsumptionInadditioncreditpolicyshouldremainaccommodativewhichcanfacilitatetherecoveryofdemandforhousinganddurablesLiquidityandcreditpolicyshouldremainaccommodativeThepandemicandhousingmarketslumpseverelyhurtconsumerconfidencelastyearItneedssometimetoresumeemploymentincomeandconfidenceBothhousingmarketanddurableconsumptionmayrecoverinagradualmannerTheGDPgrowthshouldremainbelowpotentialgrowthwiththereflationriskundercontrolin2023TheliquidityandcreditpolicyshouldremainPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk13Feb2023accommodativethisyearWeexpectthePBOCmaycuttheRRRfor50-100bpsthisyeartomeethigherliquiditydemandduetoreboundingriskappetiteandcreditdemandThecentralbankmayalsocutLPRsfor10-15bpstolowerfinancingcoststohouseholdsandprivatebusinessIn2022manyhouseholdsrepaidtheirmortgageloansinadvanceasmortgagerateswerestillquitehighMortgagerateswereevenhigherthantheratesofindividualbusinessloansandconsumercreditwhichisunreasonableThisshouldincreasethepossibilityforadditionalmoderatecutsin5YLPRsToalleviatebanksNIMpressureandboostconsumptiontheauthoritymayalsomoderatelylowerdepositratesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE213Feb2023Figure1GrowthofoutstandingOBSfinancingFigure2GrowthofoutstandingbondfinancingYoYYoY40253020201015010102053040020162017201820192020202120222023201820192020202120222023EntrustedloanTrustloanBanksacceptanceCorporatebondGovernmentbondSourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMFigure3TotalsocialfinancingFigure4OBSfinancingRmbbnRmbbn700060020202021202220236000400200500004000200300040020006002020202120222023100080010000JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecSourceMoFCMBIGMSourceMoFCMBIGMFigure5BondfinancingFigure6NewMLtermloanstohouseholdsRmbbnRmbbn200010001500800600100040050020000JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec200500JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec20202021202220232020202120222023SourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE313Feb2023Figure7Newshort-termloanstohouseholdsFigure8NewMLtermloanstoenterprisesRmbbnRmbbn6003800330040028002002300018001300200800400300600200JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec20202021202220232020202120222023SourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMFigure9Newshort-termloanstoenterprisesFigure10BillfinancingtoenterprisesRmbbnRmbbn100090080060060040030020000200400300JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec20202021202220232020202120222023SourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMFigure11GrowthofcreditmoneysupplyFigure12M1growthM1asofM2YoY303325322031301529102852702652520132021201420152016201720182019202020222023M1LHSM1asofM2RHSSourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE413Feb2023Figure13PBOCclaimstolargeandSMbanksFigure14TotalsocialfinancingCSI300indexRmbtrnYoYindex71760006550051550004450031340002350011130000250020132015201620172018201920202021202220149200020162017201820192020202120222023PBOCclaimstolargebanksPBOCclaimstoSMbanksTSFoutstandingLHSCSI300indexRHSSourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMFigure15DailydomestictrafficflowFigure16Newmortgagehousingsalesindex7DMAmn7DMAYoY1601945184011017351630601525142010131512401110105900902020202120222023140DailytrafficcongestionindexLHS2017201820192020202120222023NewmortgageHousingcontractsalesvalueDailysubwaypassengerflowRHSSourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMFigure17GrowthofhousingsalesbycitiesFigure18GrowthoflandsalesYoY2YCAGRfor20211109070503010103050702017201820192020202120222023Tier1citiesTier2citiesTier3citiesSourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE513Feb2023Figure19InfrastructureinvestmentFigure20US-SinointerestspreadsYoYYoYpptUSRMB6025175502040153017201010051003652053040102017201820192020202120225620082010201220142016201820202022LocalgovernmentlandrevenueLHSUS-Sino1YT-bondspreadLHSInfrastructureinvestmentRHSUSRMBspotrateRHSSourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMFigure21Sino-USgrowthgapRMBUSchangeFigure22NetforexinflowpptUSbn2010120880156440102004052480061208510160200620082010201220142016201820202022200Sino-USnominalGDPgrowthgapLHS2013201420152016201720182019202020212022RMBUSchangeRHSBanksnetforexpurchaseBanksnetforexreceiptSourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMFigure23MoneymarketfundingcostFigure24Bondmarketrates50745640535304253202152017201820192020202120222023107YT-bond7YAAACorporatebond201820192020202120222023YueBao3MShibor6MNCD7YAACorporatebondSourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE613Feb2023Figure25ChangeofmarginbalanceanddailynetFigure26EMETFvolatilityandnorthboundflowtobuyingonmarginA-shareRmbbnRmbbnindexRmbbndailyaverage300180601025055815050200645150120404100903525030006025250203041001515001062017201820192020202120222023201820192020202120222023MoMchangeofmarginbalanceLHSEMETFvolatilityindexLHSDailynetbuyingonmarginRHSNorthboundinflowtoAsharesRHSSourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE713Feb2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE8