>> 招银国际-China Construction Machinery – Upbeat guidance from US AWP manufacturers reaffirms our positive stance on the sector-230213
| 上传日期： |
2023/2/13 |
大小： |
490KB |
| 格式： |
pdf 共4页 |
来源： |
招银国际 |
| 评级： |
-- |
作者： |
-- |
| 下载权限： |
无限制-登录即可下载 |
|
|
研究报告全文：13Feb2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchSectorUpdateChinaConstructionMachineryUpbeatguidancefromUSAWPmanufacturersOUTPERFORMreaffirmsourpositivestanceonthesectorMaintainMajoraerialworkplatformAWPmanufacturersTerexOshkoshandrentalChinaCapitalGoodscompanyUnitedRentalsintheUSprovidebullishguidanceon2023Eoutlookafterreportingtheir2022resultsKeytakeaways1AWPmanufacturerssawWayneFungCFAstrongorderflowwithbacklogvisibilityof12months2Themegaprojects85239000826whicharelessmacroreliantwillprovidebothrentalcompaniesandAWPwaynefungcmbicomhkmanufacturerswithgrowthcertaintyoverthecomingyears3manufacturersKatherineNgmarginimprovementtrendwillcontinuedespitethefactthatsupplychainwill85237618725remainaconstraintthisyearsuggestingstrongpricingpowerAllthesereaffirmkatherinengcmbicomhkourpositivestanceontheAWPsectorthisyearWebelievethestrongdemandinoverseastogetherwiththegradualdemandrecoveryinChinaafterre-openingpresentgoodopportunitiesforChineseAWPmanufacturerswhichfacelimitedconstraintonsupplychainandcostinflationReiterateBUYonZhejiangDingli60overseasrevenuecontributionandZoomlionAWPvaluetobeunlockedthroughseparatelistingresumptionofsharebuy-backlastFriTerexCorporationTEXUSNRTerexreleasedits2022resultslastFridayandheldaconferencecallAsatend-2022TerexhadtotalbacklogamountedtoUS29bnonAWP27YoYAround14ofsuchbacklogisscheduledRelatedReports1Zoomlion1157HKBUYSpin-offtobedeliveredin2024ETerexrevealedthatcustomerleasingcompanyofAWPbusinesstounlockvaluedemandcontinuestobestrongduetohighutilizationrateagingfleetrobust17Jan2023linkinfrastructureprojectsandelectrificationprojectsforcustomersESGgoal2PreferAWPtoexcavatorinthenearTerextargetstoachieveUS26-27bnofAWPsalesin2023Eup47-87term12Jan2023link3SANYInternational631HKBUYYoYandoperatingmarginof9up11pptYoYExpansiontonewenergyOshkoshOSKUSNROshkoshsresultswerereleasedinlateJanequipmentsectorwithanambitioustarget9Jan2023linkOshkoshbelievesstrongutilizationrateofthecustomerselevatedfleetage4ChinaConstructionMachineryandlargenumberofmegaprojectsunderwaywillremainthemajorsourcesHDTSector2023outlookofgrowthThepercentageofaccessequipmentincludingAWPinrentalDifficultiesmasteredarefleetsdeployedformegaprojectsvalueUS400mnhasmorethandoubledopportunitieswon7Dec2022linkoverthehistoricallevelThesemegaprojectsincludingfactoriesforEVs5SANYInternational631HKBUYbatterieschipsaswellasnon-residentialprojectssuchasdatacentersandKeytakeawaysfrompost-resultshealthcarefacilitieswillcontinuetocontributestrongdemandforOshkoshscallandNDR2Nov2022linkaccessequipmentAsatend-2022backlogforaccessequipmentamounted6ZhejiangDingli603338CHBUY3Q22earnings36YoYbettertoUS436bnup22YoYOshkoshtargetstoachieveUS42bnrevenuethanexpectationRaiseearningsin2023E57YoYandoperatingmarginof113pptYoYandTPonmarginrecovery31Oct2022linkImplicationstotheChinesemanufacturersWebelievethetightsupplyof7SANYHeavyIndustry600031CHAWPduetosupplychainuncertaintieswilloffersomeroomforDingliHOLDAnotherweakquarterStilloverseasfocusedtoachievesalesgrowthintheUSevenwiththeanti-challenging31Oct2022linkdumpingandcountervailingtaxBesidesthepotentialdemandrecoveryin8JiangsuHengli601100CHHOLDRevenuereboundedinEuropeandChinawillbegrowthdriverthisyearZoomliondomestically-3Q22Waitformoredatapointsfocusedbutwitharisingoverseaspresencewillalsobenefitfromtoconfirmrecovery25OctincreasingexportopportunitiesWeseeupsidetoourChinaAWPsales2022linkforecastdomesticsalesexportof20YoYin2023EPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk13Feb2023Figure1TerexandOshkosh2023guidanceonAWP20222023EGrowthUSmnLow-endHigh-endLow-endHigh-endTerexNetsalesMaterialsprocessing1942200021003081Aerialworkplatform2484260027004787OperatingmarginGrowthpptMaterialsprocessing153-155-02Aerialworkplatform79-90-11OshkoshNetsalesAccessequipment3972-4200-57AWP1949----Telehandlers1175----Others848----OperatingmarginGrowthpptAccessequipment80110-30SourceCompanydataCMBIGMFigure2USnon-residentialconstructionspendingFigure3USmanufacturingconstructionspendinggrowthgrowth2060501540103052010012018720181201972019120207202012021720211202272022012018720181201972019120207202012021720211202272022-5-10-10-20USnon-residentialspendinggrowthUSmanufacturingconstructionspendinggrowthSourceBloombergCMBIGMSourceBloombergCMBIGMFigure4AWPmonthlysalesChinaexportFigure5CMBIGMAWPsalesprojectionUnitsUnits350003000004003503000025000025000300200000200002501500015000020010000150100000500010050000050JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec00201920202021202220182019202020212022E2023E2024ESourceCCMACMBIGMSourceIPAFCCMACMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE213Feb2023Figure6PeerscomptableTickerCompanyRatingPriceTPUpsideMarketcapPExPBxlocallocaldownsideUSmnFY22EFY23EFY22EFY23EcurrencycurrencyHKlisted631HKEquitySANYINTERNATIONALBUY769132072310712610521181157HKEquityZOOMLIONHEAVY-HBUY4275242371911129006062338HKEquityWEICHAIPOWER-HBUY1176126071464821216112123808HKEquitySINOTRUKHKLTDHOLD11021000-9388714710107071839HKEquityCIMCVEHICLES-HNR507--2224nananana564HKEquityZHENGZHOUCOAL-HNR890--339556450907HKlistedaverage1301011110Ashare000338CHEquityWEICHAIPOWER-AHOLD11751140-3147012451871414601100CHEquityJIANGSUHENGLI-AHOLD65425800-11129543373007967603338CHEquityZHEJIANGDINGLI-ABUY582871002243582452044236600031CHEquitySANYHEAVY-AHOLD16531470-11207173182402220000157CHEquityZOOMLIONHEAVY-AHOLD606600-172171841480909000425CHEquityXCMG-ANR584--10191109981110000528CHEquityGUANGXILIUGONG-ANR628--18131331090807603638CHEquityYANTAIEDDIEPNR1818--22566495195046600761CHEquityANHUIHELICO-ANR1665--18201391131917603298CHEquityHANGCHAGROUP-ANR2038--26081761452825000951CHEquityCNHTCJINANT-ANR1502--26064911781412601717CHEquityZHENGZHOUCOAL-ANR1377--340799811712600582CHEquityTIANDI-ANR530--323997861110A-shareaverage2481852522OverseasCATUSEquityCATERPILLARINCNR2477--1288901571467766DEUSEquityDEERECONR4178--12414914914262506305JPEquityHITACHICONSTNR30750--5056929110096301JPEquityKOMATSULTDNR31800--23659981001211042670KSEquityDOOSANINFRACORENR78000--124670630908VOLVBSSEquityVOLVOAB-BNR2035--402991151122524Average1141093328HydrauliccomponentsPHUSEquityPARKERHANNIFINNR3489--4474917916346407012JPEquityKAWASAKIHVYINDNR29120--3737999809097242JPEquityKYBCORPNR35450--698433906056474JPEquityNACHI-FUJIKOSHINR37950--723727306056268JPEquityNABTESCOCORPNR36550--33821991761716Average1191101715AerialworkingplatformTEXUSEquityTEREXCORPNR543--36671131072622OSKUSEquityOSHKOSHCORPNR903--59061611251816LNRCNEquityLINAMARCORPNR718--330311390nanaPIGFPEquityHAULOTTEGROUPNR34--115na65005056345JPEquityAICHICORPNR7700--45010598nanaAverageexcludingHaulotte1231051614SourceBloombergCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesNoteBasedonCMBIearningsestimatesforstocksundercoveragePLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE313Feb2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE4
|
|
