>> 招银国际-China Property Service Sector – 2023 a year for market leaders and survivors-230213
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研究报告全文：13Feb2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchSectorUpdateChinaPropertyServiceSector2023ayearformarketleadersandsurvivorsOUTPERFORMMaintainWearepositivetowardsPMsectorin2023asitisthekeybeneficiaryofbothhousingcompletionpushGFAgainandreopeningCommunityVASsohigherChinaPropertySectorgrowthandbettercashcollectionThiswouldcreateroomfortheexistingmarketJeffreyZengleadersandsurvivingPOEsafterpropertycrisistoaccelerateearningsgrowth85239163727bothorganicallyandviaMAactivitiesThereforeweforecast2023Eearningsjeffreyzengcmbicomhkgrowthat23fromalowbaseof12in2022EAsfor2022EpreviewYuexiuCOPHmaybeatwhilePolyCGSOnewomayslightlyfallbelowMiaoZhangexpectationCurrentlythesectoristradingat15x2023EPEwhichisfairinour85237618910viewbuttheleadingSOEscouldtradeto20-25xfromcurrently18xontheir25-zhangmiaocmbicomhk30earningsCAGRduetomarketconsolationSmallplayerslikeBinjiangYuexiutradedat10x2023EPEcanalsorerateonsteadyearningsandBellaLiclearcatalystsOurtoppicksareYuexiuServicesincentiveplanHKconnect85237576202attractivevaluationCOPHearningsbeatBinjiangservicesgrowthoutlookbellalicmbicomhkandCRmixcshoppingmallrecoveryRisksbaddebtgoodwillwriteoffTheyearofhousingdeliveryin2023benefitsleadersmarketsharegaininGFADuetoconstructiondelayin2022anddirectcompletionfundingsupportRMB550bnintotalweforecasthousingcompletiontorebound10YoYin2023EThepickupislikelytoboostafastertransitionfromreservedGFAtomanagedGFAandmoreroomforthird-partyexpansionWethinkthiscouldbenefitPMfirmsthathavestrongthird-partyexpansioncapabilityandabundantreservedGFAGreentownserviceOnewoPolyServiceandCOPHwhorankedtopintermsofnewmanagedGFAfromthirdpartiesReopeningwouldputCommunityVASinaccelerationlikeadsbrokerageandretailCommunityVASwasseriouslyaffectedbyCOVIDin2022especially4Qwhichdraggedsegmentrevenuegrowthto29YoYin2022Evs63YoYin2021Consideringthelowbaseandconsumption-relatedserviceswethinkcommunityVASsegmentwillseequickrecoveryin2023especiallyforbusinesseslikeAdsbrokerageandretailThereforenameswithlargecontributionfromVASislikelytooutperformlikeEverSunshinePolyGreentownYuexiuthatallhave30contributionfromcommunityVASatGPlevel2022EearningspreviewhighdivergenceandlowcashcollectionWithoutasurpriseweexpectNPgrowthofPMsectortodecelerateto12YoYin2022Efrom52in2021drivenbybothpressureinrevenue22YoYvs47in2021andGPM24vs30in2021Howeveritisworthnotingthat1thedivergenceisevenwiderafterthepropertycrisisandCOVIDin2022Figure1COPHYuexiuServicesmayseeabeatwhilePolyOnewoCGSmayslightlydisappoint2Thecashcollectionratioislikelytobelowin2022Eas4QthepeakcollectionseasonwasinterruptedbyCOVIDwhichmayputOCFNPto06-07xvs09-1xin2021ValuationandToppicksThesectoriscurrentlytradingatavg15x2023EPEwhichwethinkisquitefairfromalong-termperspectiveHoweverwethinkmarketleaderslikeCOPHPolyOnewocantradeto20-25ximplying1xPEGFortoppickswepreferYuexiuServicesandCOPHfortheir2022Eearningsandgrowthoutlookin2023EandbeyondAlsoCRMixccouldbenefitfromretailboostonitsshoppingmallsAmongPOEsBinjiangislikelytooutperformonsolidearningsandparentcoPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk13Feb2023Figure1PMsector2022Eearningspreview2022Evs2023E2022E2023E2022E2023ETickersNamesEarningsexpectatioEarningsRevenueRevenueGPMGPMYoYnYoYYoYYoY3316HKBinjiangServices40In-line38NANANANA1209HKCRMixC28In-line31353430292669HKCOPH31Higher31323017176049HKPolyServices22Lower26242619196626HKYuexiuServices21Higher20195132311995HKEverSunshine18In-line20342926262602HKOnewo18Lower28252716166098HKCGS7Lower15382426252869HKGreentownServices4Inline20162218181755HKS-enjoyService3Inline20212529293319HKA-Living-15Inline1591526269666HKJinkeServices-27Inline15-8162726Average122322272424SourceBBGCMBIGMFornon-coverednamesweuseBBGconsensusdataFigure2RatioofreservedGFAmanagedGFASourceCompanyCMBIGMFigure3NewmanagedGFAfromthirdpartiesinFY21SourceCompanydataCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE213Feb2023Figure4GrossprofitfromVASasoftotalSourceCompanyCMBIGMFigure5ValuationcompsofPMcompaniesSourceBBGCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE313Feb2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE4
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