研究报告全文：14Feb2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyupdateCTGDF601888CHBUYmaintainStillthecrownjewelamongreopeningplaysTargetPriceRMB2550PreviousTPRMB2560UpDownside226Owingtoaweakbutexpected4QearningsCTGDFsrecentsharepricehasCurrentPriceRMB2080pulledbackby10toitspre-reopeninglevelWhilelockdownriskhasalreadyChinaConsumerbehindusweagainseebuyingopportunitywhenearningsmomentuminourviewtroughedandsubsequentlypicksupwithin1H23EOurcallisfurthersupportedbychannelcheckfindingsinwhich1YTDDFsalesstilltracking20JosephWong2inelasticprocurementdemandfromresellergiventheprevailinglogistic85239000838josephwongcmbicomhkbottleneckandlessfavorablerebatepolicywithKoreaDFand3averydisciplineddiscountpolicyWearebuyersofCTGDFandbelievethestockwouldStockDataseeareliefrallytowardsresultseasondrivenbymanagements2023outlookMktCapRMBmn418659andsentimentrecoverytowardsthe51GoldenweekAvg3mthstoRMBmn251652wHighLowRMB24001534TotalIssuedSharesmn1952Weraise2023Erevenueby9mainlydrivenby1anet9higherairportSourceWindDFrevenueofRMB166bnoffsetbyloweronlinerevenuewhichweassertofflinefoottrafficandspendingpervisitortogenerallyrecovertoc55of2019ShareholdingStructureand2HainanoffshorerevenueofRMB623bninwhichweassumeCTGDFChinaTravelGroup533HKSC98toshare78ofHainangovernmentstargetofRMB80bnThesehoweverCSFC30weremitigatedbya02pprampupinopexratioandhenceamutednetprofitsSourceWindchangeOur2023Eforecastsremainc25belowconsensusSharePerformance4QwasbelowusbutmomentumhasbeennormalizingAlthoughnetAbsoluteRelative1-mth-110-36profitscameinbelowusconsensusrevenuehasshoweda29sequential3-mth38-41QoQimprovementWhileresultsdetailswerenotavailableweexpectthe6-mth3963quartersGPMtoshowsimilartrendgiven1discountshasstartedtonarrowSourceWindfrommid-Decinviewofbetterfoottrafficupontheremovalofsocialdistancing12-mthPricePerformancepolicyand2arisingcontributionfromaccessoriesofwhichahigherGPMisRMBsupportedbybetterpricingdynamicsMeanwhilethesewerelikelyerodedby2500601888CHSHSZ300rebasedstart-upcostsinducedbythenewHaikoushoppingmall20001500ValuationOurearningsislittlechangedOurTPisstillbasedon500xend-100023EPEwhichrepresentsitsaveragesinceJune2020whenmarketstarted500tore-ratethestockforaseriesofpolicytailwindWebelieveourmethodology00Feb-22May-22Aug-22Nov-22hasappropriatelypriced-intherecentmarketsentimentaboutChinasgradualreopeningprogressSourceWindPositivecatalystsdomesticandoverseasacquisitionsentimentrecoveryRelatedReportstowards51Goldenweek1CTGDF601888CHAttheforefrontofChinasreopening20YE31DecFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24EDec2022RevenueRMBmn52597676765446380043103441YoYgrowth822871954702922CTGDF601888CHAweak3QonSanyaslockdownresilientNetincomeRMBmn614096545025995712822onlinesalesmadeupthegapbutEPSRMB3149265166unavoidablydilutedGPM-4NovYoYgrowth3265724799812882022ConsensusEPSRMBnana406385PExnana8084083173LockdowninSanyalikelyrepresentsPBxnana12310284yetanotherentryopportunity9DivYieldnana040810Aug2022ROE275326153251265Netgearing546473574558579SourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk14Feb2023Figure1EarningsrevisionNewOldDiffRMBmnFY22EFY23EFY24EFY22EFY23EFY24EFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenue54463800431034415708073409101991-469014GrossProfit162132732436573180352548736770-10172-05EBIT81271546719753104541520720124-22317-18Netprofit502599571282268311000113249-264-04-32GrossMargin298341354316347361-18ppt-06ppt-07pptEBITMargin149193191183207197-34ppt-14ppt-06pptNetmargin92124124120136130-27ppt-12ppt-06pptSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure2CMBIGMestimatesvsconsensusCMBIGMConsensusDiffRMBmnFY22EFY23EFY24EFY22EFY23EFY24EFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenue54463800431034415446310046212848700-203-195GrossProfit162132732436573165003657747647-17-253-232EBIT8127154671975382001948624994-09-206-210Netprofit50259957128225025134791734800-261-261GrossMargin298341354303364371-05ppt-23ppt-17pptEBITsmargin149193191151194195-01ppt-01ppt-04pptNetmargin92124124921341350ppt-1ppt-11pptSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure312MforwardPEbandFigure412MtrailingPBbandx1-yrfwdPELTaverage-2SDx1-yrtrailingPBLTaverage40115-1SD1SD2SD-1SD1SD352SD-2SD953075252055153510155Jun20Jun21Jun22Oct20OctOct21Oct22OctApr21Apr22Jun20Jun21Jun22Feb21Feb22FebOct21OctOct20Oct22OctDecDec20Dec21Dec22Apr21Apr22Feb21Feb22Feb23FebAug20AugAug21Aug22AugDec20DecDec21Dec22DecAug22AugAug21AugAug20AugSourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesSourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE214Feb2023FinancialSummaryIncomestatementCashflowsummaryYE31DecRMBmnFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24EYE31DecRMBmnFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenue52597676765446380043103441Netincome614096545025995712822Airportonlineandothers2263516204115101776125589DA516480542647754Hainanoffshore2996151472429536228177852Changeinworkingcapital28882955525325762112Others44351151105122262914Grossprofit2137622793162132732436573Netcashfroperatingact82028329118721025414379DA516480542647754Capexinvestments12342155235821912026Sellingexpenses88473861435768041034Associatedcompanies154262---Administrationexpenses163722502070264134144Others1039101169--Otheroperatingexpenses5681360111717652308Netcashfrinvestingact38142318252621912026EBIT98091484381271546719753Equityraised-----EBITDA103251532386691611420508ChangeofDebts255----Dividendpaid16583431159831664078Financecostsnet5454326010455Others2038644610271370Non-operatingincome676245265300300Netcashfrfinancingact13833817204441935447Totalinvestmentgainsloss7161---Pre-taxprofit96721480176021506319398Netchangeincash30052194730138706906Cashatthebeginningoftheyear1203214858168562415828027Incometax23352437126525073229Exchangedifference331196---LessMinorityinterests11972711131225993347Cashattheendoftheyear1470616856241582802734933Netprofit614096545025995712822Lesspledgedcash50----BalancesheetKeyratiosYE31DecRMBmnFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24EYE31DecFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24ENon-currentassets1094816932169321878820332SalesmixPPEFixedassets15911843184327143537Airportonlineandothers430239211222247Intangibleassets24492401240123462267Hainanoffshore570761789778753Construction-in-progress123329029013302130Othernon-currentassets567612397123971239712397PLratiosGrossmargin406337298341354Currentassets3097138542385423972148062Operatingmargin186219149193191Cash1470616856168562415828027Pre-taxmargin184219140188188Accountreceivable12910610685125Netmargin11714392124124Prepayments256348348348348Othercurrentassets1588121232212321513019561BalancesheetanalysisCurrentratiox0504060606Currentliabilities1566117136171361626718163Netreceivabledays0906060606Borrowings417411411411411Netpayabledays506478478478478Accountpayables43275880588050116907Inventoryturnoverdays17281607130012501200Otherpayables72466122612261226122Netdebttoequity546473574558579Taxpayables36714722472247224722ReturnsNon-currentliabilities793546354635463546ROE275326153251265Borrowings-----ROA14617486146159Deferredtaxliabilities7455555555Dividendyield0508040810Othernon-currentliabilities53491349134913491PershareMinorityInterest38715173517357786977EPSRMB3149265166Totalnetassets2617934791347913869546685DPSRMB1016081621Shareholdersequity2230829619296193291839708BVPSRMB114152169203248SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE314Feb2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMoritsaffiliateshaveinvestmentbankingrelationshipwiththeissuerscoveredinthisreportinpreceding12monthsCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBIGMGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBIGMGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBIGMGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBIGMGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE4