研究报告全文：FixedIncomeCreditCommentary13Feb2023CMBICreditCommentaryFixedIncomeDailyMarketUpdate固定收益部市场日报MarketssentimentwasrelativelyweakthismorningForAsianIGspacethereweredemandsonlong-dateleasingnamesandSOEInLGFVsectorGlennKoCFA高志和due-25IGnameswasalsobidaround7yield85236576235glennkocmbicomhkSeazen-LossofcontactofvicechairmanTheidiosyncraticnewscouldcreatevolatilityofSeazensUSDbondsbutshouldhavelimitedimpacttocreditfundamentalsFUTLANFTLNHDsdown075-15ptsbymid-daySeebelowCyrenaNgCPA吳蒨瑩85239000801cyrenangcmbicomhkChinaEconomyCreditgrowthisexpectedtoreboundin2023andmildreflationafterreopeningSeebelowforcommentsfromoureconomicresearchJerryWang王世超85237618919Tradingdeskcomments交易台市场观点jerrywangcmbicomhkLastFridayAsiaIGspacewassofterwithflowswereskewedtobettersellingonthedayasratestrendinghigherNewKDB28N33Npairopenedheaviertoedge1-2bpswiderintheAMsessionbutclosedbacktounchangedNewWSTPNZ28sannouncedIPGatT105levelandtightenedinbetweenT101T104areaunderactivetwo-wayflowsHYUELEPOHANG28swidenedby4-6bpsassellingpressurepersistedfromRMaccountsInChinesefinancialsbankT2betanameslikeICBCASCINDBK29swidened2-4bpsataroundT90areaBOCAVI24widened3bpsbutclosedatT87levelwhichis12bpstighterWoWAMCswerealsotradedweakertoend5-10bpswiderBenchmarkTMTsBABATENCNTleaked2-3bpswiderHighbetaBBBpapersMEITUA30sLENOVO32sledthewideningtomarch3-8bpswideronthedayInIGpropertiesLNGFORswerelargelyunchangedatcurrentlevelsdespiteSPrevisedtheoutlooktostablefromnegativeonThursdayOvertheweekendmediareportedthatYuexiuplannedtoissueuptoRMB94bncorporatebondfordebtrepaymentsChineseHYpropertyspacecontinuedtherecentdowntrendtobetraded1ptlowerthoughsellingflowswaslimitedatcurrentlevelsCOGARDsdroppedanother1-2ptsunderFMretailsellingafterhavinglost1ptonThursdaySINOCEsROADKGslowered05-1ptAGILEsCENCHIsGRNLGRsweredown1-2ptsPWRLNGswerelargelyunchangedto025pthigherThecompanyposteditsapplicationofRMB15bn5YCBICL-guaranteedMTNIndustrialnamesFOSUNIsHONGQIsslipped1-2ptslowerandWESCHI26wasmarkeddownaround225ptsMacaugamingnameslikeMPELsSTCITYsweredown05-15ptsInIndiaAdanicomplexbondsexperiencedfurtherweaknessonnegativeheadlinessuchastheexitofNorwayssovereignwealthfundandMoodysnegativeoutlookADANIGsdropped3ptsandADSEZsADANEMsweremarked1-15ptslowerVEDLNswerequotedanother05-1ptlowertoendat1-3ptslowerWoWInIndonesianHYsLMRTSPsweretradeddown55-75ptspostMoodysdowngradedLippoMallstoCaa1fromB3withnegativeoutlookonthebackPLEASEREADTHEAUTHORCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGECMBIFixedIncomefiscmbicomhk113Feb2023ofnoconcreterefinancingplansforitsbankloanmaturitiesdue-23s24sLPKRIJswerealsoweigheddownto1-2ptsIntheLGFVPerpAsiaAT1spacemarketwasmixedamidanoverallcautioustoneaheadofCPIprintonTuesdayLGFVspacewasroughlystableskewedtobettersellingasratesdrifted6-8bpshigheronThursdaynightShandongnamesremainedbetterbidonthedayamidtwo-waybalancedflowsQDHTCO24HKIQCL25werequoted025pthigherat9625and9545levelrespectivelyWealsosawthatFMpropdesksstartedtotrimrisksonsomeoftherecentgoodperformersbutmostclientsstayedinawait-and-seemodeShorter-datedpaperslikeGSHIAV23sCQLGST24swerequoted025ptlowertostayrange-boundatlow-90sAT1Perpnamesprinted0125-025ptlowerpostratesmovementasflowswereskewedtobettersellingthroughthedayICBC32Perpwastradeddown025pttobetradedat9475levelSOEperpswereunderbettersellingfromglobalRMaccountsonthedayaswellLastTradingDaysTopMoversTopPerformersPriceChangeTopUnderperformersPriceChangeCHNAAR51203082491822LMRTSP712020926605-77HRINTH414PERP88612LMRTSP714061924709-57LVGEM1203102388111ADANIG438090824751-28GRNLGR63406252456711WESCHI495070826868-22YUEXIU2801202691910ZHHFGR295022825875-21MarcoNewsRecap宏观新闻回顾MacroUSstockmarketsreboundedonLastFridaySP022Dow050andNasdaq-061allclosedlowerbyweekduetomarketsworryaboutFedsinteresthikepaceUSFebconsumerconfidenceindeximprovesto664from649inJan23theindexishigherthanexpectationof65TheUStreasuryyieldsmovedhigheronlastFriday251030yieldsreached450393374383respectivelyDeskanalystcomments分析员市场观点SeazenLossofcontactofvicechairmanOn10Feb23SeazenannouncedthatithadbeenunabletocontactMrQuDejunthevicechairmanSeazendidnotspecifysincewhenithaslosttouchwithMrQuDejunandthereasonofthisMediareportthatMrQuslastpublicappearancewasinmidJan22andheisinvolvedinaninvestigationrelatedtohispreviousroleinDALWANTheinvestigationisnotrelatedtoSeazenTheidiosyncraticnewscouldcreatevolatilityofSeazensUSDbondsbutshouldhavelimitedimpacttocreditfundamentalsFUTLANFTLNHDsdown075-15ptsbymid-dayChinaPolicyCreditgrowthisexpectedtoreboundin2023ChinasnewloansbeatexpectationsinJanuaryastheauthorityrequiredbankstofrontloadcreditsupplyandlocalgovernmentsSOEssoughtagoodstartamidthepro-growthshiftthisyearHowevercreditdemandinhouseholdsandSMEsremainedweakasitmaytakelongerfortheprivatesectorstorestoretheirconfidenceToboostconfidenceandgrowthintheprivatesectorChinahastocontinuetosendmarket-friendlysignalsandmaintainaccommodativeliquiditycreditpolicythisyearThePBOCmaylaunchadditionalRRRandLPR213Feb2023cutstoboostthecreditgrowthNewRMBloansandtotalsocialfinancingareexpectedtoincreaseby12and10in2023afterrising5and21in2022NewloansbeatexpectationsinJanuaryasPBOCrequiredbankstofrontloadcreditsupplyNewRMBloansreachedRMB49trninJanuarymuchhigherthanRMB398tninthesameperiodlastyearTotalsocialfinancingdropped32YoYinJanuaryafterdropping361in4Q22SpecificallynewRMBloanstorealsectorrose174YoYinJanuaryHoweverforeigncurrencyloanscontinuedtodeclineamidexchangerateuncertaintyOff-balancesheetOBSfinancingdecreasedby222YoYinJanuaryasriskaversionsentimenttowardspropertyprojectsremainedCorporatebondfinancingdropped745YoYinJanuaryafterplunging1222YoYin4Q22asthecautioussentimentinbondmarketremainedCreditdemandinSOEswasstrongwhilethatinhouseholdsandSMEsremainedweakAsChinesepolicymakersshiftedtheirfocusfromCovidcontroltoeconomicgrowthlocalgovernmentsandSOEsshowedstrongerwillingnesstoincreasedebtforexpansionCreditdemandinlocalgovernmentfinancingvehiclesandSOEsseemedtoreboundnoticeablyNewmediumandlongtermloanstocorporatesectorincreasedby667YoYtoRMB35tninJanuaryasmostofthoseloansshouldhavebeenallocatedtoprojectsoflocalgovernmentsandSOEsHowevercreditdemandintheprivatesectorremainedweakasitshouldtakelongerforhouseholdsandSMEstorestoretheirconfidenceWenotenewloanstohouseholdsectordropped695YoYandbilldiscountfinancingwasnegativeinJanuaryHousingmarketandconsumptionmayrecoverinagradualmannerHousingsalesmayhaveremainedweakinJanuaryasnewmediumtolongtermloanstohouseholdsectordropped699YoYafterdecreasing684lastDecemberMeanwhileconsumptionmildlyimprovedasnewshort-termloanstohouseholdsectordeclined661YoYinJanuaryafterdropping1048YoYlastDecemberLookingforwardhousingmarketanddurableconsumptionmaygraduallyimproveTheeconomicreopeningshouldboostemploymentincomeandconfidencewhichispositiveforhousingmarketanddurableconsumptionInadditioncreditpolicyshouldremainaccommodativewhichcanfacilitatetherecoveryofdemandforhousinganddurablesLiquidityandcreditpolicyshouldremainaccommodativeThepandemicandhousingmarketslumpseverelyhurtconsumerconfidencelastyearItneedssometimetoresumeemploymentincomeandconfidenceBothhousingmarketanddurableconsumptionmayrecoverinagradualmannerTheGDPgrowthshouldremainbelowpotentialgrowthwiththereflationriskundercontrolin2023TheliquidityandcreditpolicyshouldremainaccommodativethisyearWeexpectthePBOCmaycuttheRRRfor50-100bpsthisyeartomeethigherliquiditydemandduetoreboundingriskappetiteandcreditdemandThecentralbankmayalsocutLPRsfor10-15bpstolowerfinancingcoststohouseholdsandprivatebusinessIn2022manyhouseholdsrepaidtheirmortgageloansinadvanceasmortgagerateswerestillquitehighMortgagerateswereevenhigherthantheratesofindividualbusinessloansandconsumercreditwhichisunreasonableThisshouldincreasethepossibilityforadditionalmoderatecutsin5YLPRsToalleviatebanksNIMpressureandboostconsumptiontheauthoritymayalsomoderatelylowerdepositratesClickhereforfullreportChinaEconomyMildReflationafterReopeningChinasinflationinJanuarywasbelowexpectationsamidamildreflationafterreopeningTheresumptioninhousingmarketdurableconsumptionandbusinesscapexshouldbeinagradualmannerSomemanufacturingsectorsmayfacedeflationpressureamidoverseasrecessionriskanddestockingcycleTherewillbenooverheatingriskinChinaslabormarketasemploymentconditionshouldimproveverygraduallyChinasGDPgrowthremainsfarbelowitspotentialgrowthandthereflationshouldbemildThepriorityforthecountryisto313Feb2023boostconfidenceandgrowthespeciallyintheprivatesectorThereforetheliquidityandcreditpolicyshouldremainaccommodativeinthecountryin2023CPIgrowthwasslightlybelowexpectationsinJanuaryTheYoYgrowthofconsumerpriceindexCPIrosefrom18inDecemberto21inJanuaryslightlybelowmarketexpectationsFromMoMperspectiveCPIroseby08inJanuaryafterhavingunchangedinDecemberByitemfoodpricesincreasedby28MoMupfromtheMoMgrowthof23inlastDecemberduetoChineseNewYearholidayFreshvegetablesandfruitspricesrosesharplyby196and92respectivelyDuetoabundantsupplyoflivepigshoweverporkpricedecreased108MoMinJanuaryWithrisingglobalrecessionriskenergypricescontinuedtoretreatasChinasgasolineanddieselpricesrespectivelyfellby24and26MoMinJanuaryCoreCPIgrowthgraduallyreboundedafterreopeningCoreCPIrose1YoYinJanuaryafterclimbing07YoYlastDecemberduetoareflationinsomeservicesectorsliketransportationrecreationtourismhousecleaningandvehiclerepairmaintenanceInthoseservicesectorsdemandreboundedquicklywhilesupplyhadconstraintsduetothelaborshortageinCNYholidayaswellasthecapacityreductionafterthepandemicInJanuaryairticketsvehicleleasefeesmovieticketsandtourismpricesrespectivelyincreasedby203130107and93MoMMeanwhilehousecleaningpetcarevehiclerepairmaintenanceandhaircutpricesalsoincreasedby3-6inJanuaryPPIcontinuedtodeclineamidthedisinflationtrendinmostcommoditiesPPIdropped08YoYinJanuaryafterdecreasingby07lastDecemberFromMoMperspectivePPIcontinuedtodecline04inJanuaryafterdropping05inthepreviousmonthCommoditypricesretreatedasoverseaspolicyratesandrecessionriskincreasedInJanuarypetroleumcoalprocessingpricedroppedby32MoMandrawchemicalmaterialproductpricedeclinedby13MoMMeanwhileferrousmetalpriceincreasedby15MoMafterrising04MoMlastDecemberasChinasreopeningboostedsentimentinsteelmarketMedicinepriceroseby06MoMinJanuaryaspeoplesdemandincreasedafterthepandemicwaveWeexpectCPItorise22in2023afterincreasing2in2022andPPItodrop05in2023afterrising41in2022ChinasreflationafterreopeningshouldbemildFirstlyhousingsalesanddurableconsumptionshouldfollowagradualandslowresumptioninfuturePropertysalesvolumemaydrop75in2023afterdeclining243in2022SecondlyglobaleconomyfacesrecessionriskanddisinflationprocessassomeChinesemanufacturingsectorswithhighdependenceonexportsmayseedeflationpressureThirdlythereisnooverheatingriskinChinaslabormarketasunemploymentpressureisstillhighWenotethehousingrentinurbanregioncontinuedtodecline06YoYinJanuaryafterdropping07YoYlastDecemberItindicatestheemploymentandwageconditionoftheyouthisstillnotgoodLookingforwardChinasCPIgrowthmaymildlyclimbfrom2in2022to22in2023and25in2024asporkandservicepricesgraduallyreboundThePPImaycontinuetodeclinein1H23andnoticeablyreboundin2H23WeexpectthePPItodrop02in2023andtorise16in2024afterincreasing41in2022Liquidityandcreditpolicyshouldremainaccommodativein2023ChinasGDPgrowthremainsfarbelowpotentialgrowthandthereflationismildThepriorityforthecountryistoboosttheconfidenceandgrowthespeciallyintheprivatesectorThereforetheliquidityandcreditpolicyshouldremainaccommodativein2023ItispossibletoseeadditionalmoderatecutsinRRRandLPRsthisyearClickhereforfullreportOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPricedIssueRatingIssuerGuarantorSizeUSDmnTenorCouponYieldMSFNoOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPricedToday413Feb2023OffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPipelineIssueRatingIssuerGuarantorCurrencySizeUSDmnTenorPricingMSFHuantaihuInternationalUSD-3yr75---ChindataGroupUSD-----BBB-NewsandmarketcolorRegardingonshoreprimaryissuancestherewere52creditbondsissuedonlastFridaywithanamountofRMB42bnAsformonth-to-date287creditbondswereissuedwithatotalamountofRMB304bnraisedrepresentinga3319yoyincreaseADANIGMoodyschangesoutlooktonegativefromstableonfourAdanicompaniesandaffirmsratingsofeightBABAAlibabaraisedINR138bncUSD167mnbysellingremainingstakeinPaytmanIndiandigitalpaymentsproviderCCAMCLChinaCindatoformRMB32bninvestmentJVwithJiangsuZhongnanConstructionCIFIHGCIFIblamesdelayofCBICL-guaranteedbondsonoverdue-loanrecordonPBOCsystemaimstotableprelimoffshorerecastproposalendFebDEXICNDexinChinasignedloanextensionagreementstoextendrepaymentduedatesofRMB840mloansforoneyearEVERREMediareportedChinaEvergrandesoundedout6-7yearbondsatdiscountforScenerynotesand8-or12-yearoptionsforlisted-coissuedbondswithpartialdebt-to-equityswapGEELYGeelysEVunitwillraiseUSD750mninpre-IPOfundingroundJINGRUJingruiHoldingsexpectstorecorduptoRMB48bnUSD07bnnetlossforFY22LINREILinkREITseeksUSD24bnviarightissueatoneunitforeveryfiveexistingshareheldatsubscriptionpriceofHKD442a296discounttotheclosingsharepriceofHKD628onlastThursdayLMRTSPMoodysdowngradedLippoMallstoCaa1andmaintainednegativeoutlookRDHGCLMoodysdowngradedRadiancesratingstoB3Caa1andmaintainednegativeoutlookVNKRLEChinaVankeplanstoraiseuptoRMB15bncUSD22bninaprivateplacementYUEXIUYuexiuplanstoissueuptoRMB94bncUSD14bncorporatebondforrepaymentofdebtsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedFixedIncomeDepartmentTel8523761886785236576291fiscmbicomhkCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBank513Feb2023AuthorCertificationTheauthorwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheauthorcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatauthorinthisreportBesidestheauthorconfirmsthatneithertheauthornorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportImportantDisclosuresCMBIGMoritsaffiliateshaveinvestmentbankingrelationshipwiththeissuerscoveredinthisreportinpreceding12monthsTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMandoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestDisclaimerForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereport6