澳洲联储加息25个基点至3.35%，利率水平升至2012年9月以来最高。这也是澳洲联储2022年5月进入加息周期以来的连续第九次加息，已累计加息325个基点。澳洲联储同时强调，通胀仍处高位，未来还可能加息至少50个基点。
　　欧洲央行执委表示，打算在3月加息50个基点。

研究报告全文：股票研Research究TableTitleEquityResearchDepartmentMorningResearchFocus8February2023TableSummaryTableofContents目录Focus新闻焦点今NewsFocus行业和公司焦点晨IndustryandCompanyFocus焦ResearchNil无点LatestReports最新报告摘要MorningCompanyEPSCodeTitleTPChgRatingChgNameEstChange代码标题目标价z评级变动公司名称盈利预测是否改变SectorReportBi-WeeklyWrapMoreFoodConfidentAbout2023RecoveryBeverageBasedOnStrongerCNYDemand--Outperform--NSectorandSalesTurnoverOutperform证行业报告双周报春节期间需求及动销食品饮料行业告表现强化对2023年复苏的信心跑赢--跑赢大市--否券大市研报究究AppendicesChineseVersionoftheIndustryandCompanyFocusLatestReportsResearchReport报研后附行业和公司焦点最新报告摘要中文版告券Equity证HSIPerformanceHSCEIPerformance31000140002900012000270002500010000230002100080001900060001700015000400013000110002000Feb22May22Aug22Nov22Feb23Feb22May22Aug22Nov22Feb23SourceBloombergSourceBloombergPreviousIntradayHKmRMBmTradingDayChange百万港元百万人民币前一交易日单日涨跌HSIIndexDailyTurnoverMainlandChinaDailyTurnover2129870036103777526400恒生指数总成交额内地总成交额HSCEIIndexStockConnectNetInflowMarketCapSSE7232250601742396434国企指数互联互通净流入沪市市值HSTECHIndex451631115MarketCapHKEx38100400MarketCapSZSE35220300Seethelastpagefordisclaimer1of6MorningResearchFocus科技指数港股市值深市市值资料来源国泰君安国际BloombergNotethemarketcapitalvalueofHKExSSESZSEandMainlandChinaDailyTurnoverwasrecordedasatFeb06PleasesubscribetoourGTJAIResearchandStrategyTeamWechatsubscriptionaccountsPleasescantheQRcodesontheright-handsideResearchReportDatabase1wwwgtjaicomResearchFocusCompanyResearchHighlights2BloombergReportPageRESPGJIRorNHGTJ欢迎订阅国泰君安国际研究部和策略团队的微信公众号公众号账号国泰君安国际研究部戴清策略研究研究报告库1wwwgtjaicom研究报告公司点评专题研究2Bloomberg报告页面RESPGJIR或NHGTJNewsFocus新闻焦点TableNewsFocusMarketNews市场新闻TheReserveBankofAustraliaraisedinterestratesby25basispointsto335takingthemtotheirhighestlevelsinceSeptember2012ItisalsotheninthconsecutiveratehikesincetheRBAbeganitshikingcycleinMay2022bringingthetotalto325basispointsTheRBAalsostressedthatinflationremainedhighandthatfutureraterisesofatleast50basispointswerelikely澳洲联储加息25个基点至335利率水平升至2012年9月以来最高这也是澳洲联储2022年5月进入加息周期以来的连续第九次加息已累计加息325个基点澳洲联储同时强调通胀仍处高位未来还可能加息至少50个基点TheECBsexecutivecommitteemembersaidheintendstoraiseinterestratesby50basispointsinMarch欧洲央行执委表示打算在3月加息50个基点IndustryandCompanyFocusNil无Seethelastpagefordisclaimer2of6MorningResearchFocusTableTableFocusLatestLatestReportsSectorReportFoodBeverageSectorBi-WeeklyWrapMoreConfidentAbout2023RecoveryBasedOnStrongerCNYDemandandSalesTurnoverOutperformRatingOutperform6-18mTPnaAnalystAndyChenReportDate2023-02-07SummaryOverthepasttwoweeksthemarkethasbeentradingonChinasrapidreopeningofitseconomyinlinewithourpreviousexpectationhowevertheHongKongfoodandbeveragesectorasawholeseemslesssensitivetothisreflectingdivergingmarketviewsfromavaluationperspectiveInourviewatthisstageinvestorsshouldcontinuetofocusmoreonsub-categoriesthatwillachievestrongerdemandrecoveryduring2023Tobespecificwelikebeernon-alcoholicbeveragecheeseroom-temperatureyoghurtandliquidmilkproductsBasedonourrecentobservationsandchannelchecktheinventorylevelofdairysub-categorieshasbeenhealthiersincemid-Januaryindicatingrobustgift-givingdemandespeciallyinlower-tiercitiesandruralmarketsduringtheChineseNewYearholidayperiodInadditionwesawnarrowerpricediscountsoninstantnoodlesandnon-alcoholicdrinksinJanuary2023thaninDecember2022ForthebeersegmentpremiumizationtrendremainsintactDuetothesubstantialreboundinon-premiseconsumptionsalesgrowthofthesub-premiumbeerandaboveportfolioacceleratedinJanuaryLookingforwardwereiteratethatthecontinuousrecoveryinofflinedistributionchannelswillleadChinasretailsalestobottomoutandboostconsumergoodsturnoverwhichisthebaselinescenarioforthefoodandbeveragesectoroutlookin2023MaintainOutperformratingforthefoodandbeveragesectorInvestorsshouldkeepfocusingoninvestmentopportunitieson1Chinaslarge-scalebreweries2leadingplayersinthedownstreamandupstreamdairyproductsubsectorand3somenon-alcoholicbeveragecompaniesWehaveBuyratingonChinaResourcesBeer00291HKChinaFeihe06186HKandChinaFoods00506HKBesideswerecommendTsingtaoBrewery00168HKMengniuDairy02319HKYouranDairy09858HKModernDairy01117HKNongfuSpring09633HKandVitasoy00345HKMajorriskfactors1Weaker-than-expecteddomesticeconomicgrowthandorhouseholdincomegrowth2unexpectedpricemovementsofrawmaterialsorpackagingcomponentsand3foodsafetyproblemsChineseTranslation中文翻译TableFocuschi行业和公司焦点Nil无TableLatestchi最新报告行业报告食品饮料行业双周报春节期间需求及动销表现强化对2023年复苏的信心跑赢大市评级跑赢大市6-18m目标价na分析员陈思超报告日期2023-02-07报告摘要过去的两周内市场在交易中国经济的快速重启符合我们先前的预期不过港股食品饮料板块表现总体上似乎对此并不敏感反映了市场对其估值层面的看法分歧我们认为投资者现阶段应继续重点关注那些有望在2023年实现更强劲需求复苏的细分品类具体而言我们看好啤酒非酒精饮料奶酪常温酸奶和液态奶产品根据我们近期的调研和渠道验证自1月中旬乳制品库存水平趋于理想表明春节假期送礼需求转好尤其在低线城市与农村市场此外我们见到Seethelastpagefordisclaimer3of6MorningResearchFocus2023年1月方便面和非酒精饮料的价格折扣相比2022年12月有所收窄啤酒赛道的高端化趋势保持不变由于即饮消费场景显著回暖1月次高档及以上啤酒销售增长加快展望未来我们重申线下分销渠道的持续反弹将引领国内零售销售额走出低谷并提振消费品动销状况成为2023年食品饮料行业展望的基线情景维持食品饮料行业跑赢大市的评级我们建议投资者应保持关注的投资机会包括1国内大型啤酒厂商2乳制品产业链上下游龙头公司与3部分非酒精饮料公司我们对华润啤酒00291HK中国飞鹤06186HK和中国食品00506HK的评级为买入此外我们推荐青岛啤酒00168HK蒙牛乳业02319HK优然牧业09858HK现代牧业01117HK农夫山泉09633HK及维他奶00345HK主要风险因素1国内经济增长或居民收入增长逊于预期2原材料及包装物价格变动超出预期以及3食品安全问题Seethelastpagefordisclaimer4of6MorningResearchFocusResearchDepartment研究部NoahHudsonHeadofResearch主管noahhudsongtjascomhk8675523976684HaoZhou周浩ChiefEconomist首席经济学家haozhougtjascomhk85225097582BillySun孙英超Macro宏观billysungtjascomhk85225092603JakeWang汪昌江Strategy策略changjiangwanggtjascomhk8675523976675AndyHuang黄凯鸿Strategy策略kaihonghuanggtjascomhk8675523976702JackWu吴狄Strategy策略diwugtjascomhk8675523976718EvanLi李少金Strategy策略evanligtjascomhk85225095375GaryWong黄家玮ConstructionEngineering建筑工程garywonggtjascomhk85225092616KevinGuo郭勇NonferrousMetals有色金属yongguogtjascomhk8675523976671RichardCao曹柱Banking银行zhucaogtjascomhk8675523976870GinYu余劲同Telecommunications通信ginyugtjascomhk8675523976686JackLiu柳晨Electronics电子chenliugtjascomhk85225092149PeterShao邵俊樨EnergyOperations能源运营petershaogtjascomhk85225095464TeddyLin林荣叶MediaCulture传播文化含体育rongyelingtjascomhk8675523976692ChunliZhan詹春立Property房地产jameszhangtjascomhk85225097745AndyChen陈思超FoodBeverages食品饮料含化妆品andychengtjascomhk85225092665AlexBai白舸Machinery机械gebaigtjascomhk85225097202IvanWu吴凱翔Automobiles汽车ivanwugtjascomhk85225092649HansenTang汤瀚森TextilesApparel纺织服装hansentanggtjascomhk8675523976884FrancoLi李炜Non-BankFinance非银行金融francoligtjascomhk85225097204EsabellaZhao赵舒蔓ComprehensiveSupport综合支持shumanzhaogtjascomhk8675523976681PennyPan潘凌蕾ComprehensiveSupport综合支持pennypangtjascomhk85225092632Seethelastpagefordisclaimer5of6MorningResearchFocusCompanyRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexNASDAQCompositeIndexTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionBuy买入RelativePerformance15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableAccumulate收集RelativePerformanceis5to15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisneutralReduce减持RelativePerformanceis-5to-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSell卖出RelativePerformance-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSectorRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexNASDAQCompositeIndexTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionOutperform跑赢大市RelativePerformance5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisneutralUnderperform跑输大市RelativePerformance-5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisunfavorableDISCLOSURETableDISCLOSUREOFINTERESTSOFINTERESTS1TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonotserveasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport2TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonothaveanyfinancialinterestsinrelationtotheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport3ExceptforCHINAGRANDPHARMACEUTICALANDHEALTHCARE00512HKLUZHOUBANK01983HKSFREIT02191HKSINOHYTEC02402HKJINSHANGBANK02558HKBANKOFZHENGZHOU06196HKGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesdonotholdequaltoormorethan1ofthemarketcapitalizationoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport4GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavehadinvestmentbankingrelationshipswithCOUNTRYGARDEN02007HKSINOTRANS-HSHARES00598HKCHOWTAIFOOKJEWELLERY01929HKCGNMEIYAPOWER01811HKCGNPOWER-HSHARES01816HKGOMEELECTRICALAPPLIANCES00493HKCHINAAOYUANPROPERTY03883HKGUANGZHOUAUTOMOBILE-HSHARES02238HKNWS00659HKCHINASOUTHCITY01668HKSIHUANPHARMACEUTICAL00460HKSINOPECENGINEERING-HSHARES02386HKGCLNEWENERGY00451HKNEWWORLDDEVELOPMENT00017HKCHINARISUNGROUP01907HKSENSETIME-W00020HKGEELYAUTOMOBILE00175HKCHINACONSTRUCTIONBANK-HSHARES00939HKBANKOFCOMMUNICATIONS-HSHARES03328HKCHINAMINSHENGBANKINGCORP-HSHARES01988HKTENCENT00700HKBINHAIINVESTMENT02886HKCHINAPETROLEUMCHEMICAL-HSHARES00386HKXIAOMICORPORATION01810HKCHENMING01812HKSUNAC01918HKNAYUKI02150HKCARSGEN02171HKCHINAOVSPPT02669HKSMOORE06969HKXPENG09868HKYEAHKA09923HKPOPMART09992HKDFZQ-HSHARES03958HKWUXIAPPTEC02359HKBANKOFCHONGQING01963HKCITS01880HKYANZHOUCOAL01171HKSPC00338HKHONGJIUFRUIT06689HKSINOPECKANTONS00934HKCGNMINING01164HKCHINANONFERROUSMINING01258HKLEEMANPAPER02314HKJOYSPREADER06988HKVOBILEGROUP03738HKCHERVON02285HKKINGSOFT03888HKALIBABA09988HKZGCTECLEASING01601HKAOYUANHEALTHYLIFEGROUP03662HKJDCOM09618HKCHINALESSO02128HKZHONGLIANGHOLDINGS02772HKLOGANGROUP03380HKZHENROPROPERTIES06158HKAGILEGROUP03383HKCIFIESSERVICE01995HKBANKOFGANSU02139HKA-LIVING03319HKFINANCIALSTREETPROPERTY01502HKIRICOGROUPNEWENERGY00438HKCIFIHOLDINGSGROUP00884HKBIDU-SW09888HKKWGGROUP01813HKBILIBILI-SW09626HKCHINASUNTIEN00956HKJINKESERVICES09666HKJIANGSUEXPRESSWAY00177HKFOSUNINTL00656HKWEIGAOGROUP01066HKmentionedinthisResearchReportwithinthepreceding12months5GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesaremakingorwillmakeamarketinthesecuritiesinrespectofHONGKONGEXCHANGESANDCLEARING00388HKGALAXYENTERTAINMENT00027HKGREATWALLMOTOR-HSHARES02333HKAIA01299HKSANDSCHINA01928HKCHINAAOYUANPROPERTY03883HKWUXIBIOLOGICS02269HKMEITUAN-W03690HKAACTECHNOLOGIESHOLDINGS02018HKSINOPHARMGROUP-HSHARES01099HKSUNNYOPTICALTECHNOLOGY02382HKCNOOC00883HKGEELYAUTOMOBILE00175HKBYDCOMPANY-HSHARES01211HKCHINACONSTRUCTIONBANK-HSHARES00939HKINDUSTRIALANDCOMMERCIALBANKOFCHINA-HSHARES01398HKBOCHONGKONG02388HKBANKOFCHINA-HSHARES03988HKHSBC00005HKPINGANINSURANCE-HSHARES02318HKCHINALIFEINSURANCE-HSHARES02628HKTENCENT00700HKCHINATOWERCORPORATION-HSHARES00788HKXIAOMICORPORATION01810HKALIBABA09988HKNETEASE09999HKJDCOM09618HKSMIC00981HKALIBABAHEALTH00241HKLOGANGROUP03380HKBIDU-SW09888HKKUAISHOU-W01024HKSUNAC01918HKXPENG09868HKCITICSEC-HSHARES06030HKLENOVO00992HKCHINAMOBILE-HSHARES00941HKmentionedinthisResearchReport6GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenotemployedanindividualservingasanofficerofanyissuersmentionedinthisResearchReportThereisnoofficerofanyissuersmentionedinthisResearchReportassociatedwithGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesDISCLAIMERThisResearchReportdoesnotconstituteaninvitationoroffertoacquirepurchaseorsubscribeforsecuritiesbyGuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedGuotaiJunanGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesmaydobusinessthatrelatestocompaniescoveredinresearchreportsincludinginvestmentbankinginvestmentservicesetcforexampletheplacingagentleadmanagersponsorunderwriterorinvestproprietarilyAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentstrategiesexpressedorallyorinwrittenformbysalespersonsdealersandotherprofessionalexecutivesofGuotaiJunangroupofcompaniesAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentdecisionsmadebytheassetmanagementandinvestmentbankinggroupsofGuotaiJunanThoughbestefforthasbeenmadetoensuretheaccuracyoftheinformationanddatacontainedinthisResearchReportGuotaiJunandoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyandcompletenessoftheinformationanddatahereinThisResearchReportmaycontainsomeforward-lookingestimatesandforecastsderivedfromtheassumptionsofthefuturepoliticalandeconomicconditionswithinherentlyunpredictableandmutablesituationsouncertaintymaycontainInvestorsshouldunderstandandcomprehendtheinvestmentobjectivesanditsrelatedrisksandwherenecessaryconsulttheirownfinancialadviserspriortoanyinvestmentdecisionThisResearchReportisnotdirectedatorintendedfordistributiontoorusebyanypersonorentitywhoisacitizenorresidentoforlocatedinanyjurisdictionwheresuchdistributionpublicationavailabilityorusewouldbecontrarytoapplicablelaworregulationorwhichwouldsubjectGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniestoanyregistrationorlicensingrequirementwithinsuchjurisdiction2023GuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedAllRightsReserved27FLowBlockGrandMillenniumPlaza181QueensRoadCentralHongKongTel8522509-9118Fax8522509-7793WebsitewwwgtjaicomSeethelastpagefordisclaimer6of6